Canada Moving for a NO CONFIDENCE Vote to Throw Out Trudeau


Posted originally on Dec 28, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

No Confidence
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The C$ is poised to finally elect a Yearly Sell Signal (Bearish Reversal) warning that Canada may not bottom out until 2026. Even if Trudeau is removed from office, will that prevent the Decline & Fall of Canada into 2026? We will deal with these questions and more in our annual report on Canada for 2025.

Canada Report 2025

What Kind of Government is Better?


Posted originally on Dec 26, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

athens acropolis

QUESTION: Martin:

 You write “Republics are the worst form of government, for every representative can be bribed.”

^That^ translates into “Republics are the worst form of government when every representative IS bribed.”

Is your statement equivalent to “Republics are a good form of government when every representative cannot be bribed?”

Given your opinion regarding republics, what is the best form of government?

Best…

RM

kleroterion Athenian Vote

ANSWER: Not every representative sells out. The reason for this is the lack of term limits. Representatives need money to run the next election, and that makes them susceptible to lobbyists and bribes. The bribes are not like Nancy Pelosi seeking to make a ton of money for personal gain. It begins with trying to raise money for the next election. We should reestablish the Kleroterion, but with improvement to eliminate the flaws pointed out by Aristotle and others.

1 Career Politicians
Career Politicians

But we must also prohibit career politicians. The bureaucracy really runs the state, and the political class is supposed to oversee them, but when they are career politicians, they become one and the same. Politicians act on “staff recommendations,” which occur at every government level – local, county, state, federal, and international at the United Nations. We have NO SAY who represents us at the United Nations and secretly agrees with the World Health Organization of their Climate Change agenda. There is no democratic process in any of this.

The “elected” politician is just for show, in many cases, to pretend we have a democratic process. Try contacting your representative. You will be typically stonewalled and held at bay by their “staff,” which are the real Deep State, for they run the show and remain there, moving from one politician to the next. Try writing to a representative of another district – they usually will not accept it.

JFK Willingboro Oct 1960

More than sixty years ago today, on July 24, 1963, Bill Clinton shook hands with President John F. Kennedy when he was 16. Clinton says that handshake inspired his life of public service. Nearly thirty years later, in January 1993, Bill Clinton was sworn in as the 42nd president. I, too, shook John F. Kennedy’s hand when he was running for office in 1960. It did not inspire me to become president. Look at all the Secret Service people on the tops of the buildings. I remember every building was covered. Biden withheld sharpshooter protection from Trump for two years and refused to give RFK any protection. Was it Biden’s decision or the “staff” who really run the country? I believe the world saw that the emperor had no clothes, so to speak, after Biden’s last term. We witnessed a man in severe mental decline for the past four years. There is no way he could run the country. The deep state is in control, and a good portion of the public now realizes that the president is NOT always in control.

A few things need to happen for conditions to improve:

End lobbying: All elections should be funded by the taxpayer based on the number of signatures they gather

Committees should be based on their expertise. If I were there, it would be on a financial committee, not some medical committee. People are appointed to committees based on who they know rather than WHAT they know.

Athen had the Kleroterion, where names were selected for those who would fill a position. They should be prequalified for various positions.

The Inspector General should be a separate agency NOT subservient to the Executive or Department of Justice with the power to indict anyone in government.

Terms should be limited to a 2-year maximum — there is no room for career politicians.

Public servants MUST serve the people rather than their self-interests. “Politician” should not be a career choice but a role held by a member of our society who desires to SERVE the people by providing their expertise for a limited duration.

Japan Fighting the Market Blaming Speculator not Its Policies


Posted originally on Dec 21, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

Japan Yen 10000 2024

Japan is cascading into a serious debt crisis. Even Japanese finance officials have come out and been shocked by the fall of the Japanese yen back to retest the lows of 1990. They have been urging the Bank of Japan to intervene in foreign exchange and are naturally blaming speculators. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato came out and stated:

“As we are alarmed by recent currency market developments including those driven by speculators, we’ll take appropriate action against excessive moves.”

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In every government, they will always blame speculators and never their own policies. The mere fact that Kato has publicly made this statement demonstrates that the currency market is rather alarming, and the government is very concerned about the collapse of the Japanese yen. Currently, the dollar is trading at the 151 level. A year-end closing above 148 will warn that the dollar can rally substantially in the 200 to 250 zone. A close BELOW 147 would imply we could see the yen consolidate into 2026, but then it would resume a decline into 2027. Japan did conduct an intervention into the FOREX market buying yen last July to support its currency after fell below 161 per dollar level.

The BOJ’s rate-setting meeting concluded, suggesting that the U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials may not narrow as fast as previously expected. They did confirm that a former employee’s theft of over 1 billion yen from customers’ deposit boxes did not help with confidence overall.

Newsom Declares State of Emergency


Posted originally on Dec 20, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

Newsom California

Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency over the bird flu. Of the 34 reported cases, 33 were working directly in farms. There is no grave danger to the public at large. This publicity stunt is merely a way for Newsom to have more power over his state ahead of Trump’s inauguration.

Newsom enjoyed endless power under COVID-19 guidelines and restrictions. I’ve met countless people who call themselves “pandemic refugees” as they were forced to flee California during the pandemic as it became one of the most oppressive states in the nation.

“This proclamation is a targeted action to ensure government agencies have the resources and flexibility they need to respond quickly to this outbreak. Building on California’s testing and monitoring system — the largest in the nation — we are committed to further protecting public health, supporting our agriculture industry, and ensuring that Californians have access to accurate, up-to-date information. While the risk to the public remains low, we will continue to take all necessary steps to prevent the spread of this virus,” Newsom declared.

Over 600 dairy farms are under quarantine in California due to the bird flu. I explained that the USDA will begin testing ALL dairy farms across America, despite no known instance of someone becoming sick from consuming dairy. There have not been any recorded cases of person-to-person spread either.

Newsom may now issue executive orders and proclamations under the premise that this virus is not posing a risk to the public at large. He may now assume direct control over emergency management and state operations, as well as expanding current budgets. He could actually make expenditures from any state fund available for his use. There is a deeper power play ploy at hand behind these actions.

Postal Truck EV Fail – $3B Govt Waste


Posted Dec 20, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

Governments are eager to spend your tax dollars on useless initiatives to save the planet from global warming. The Biden Administration spent BILLIONS on investing in EV infrastructure that never came to fruition. I spoke on how Biden approved of a $7.5 billion spending package to build EV charging stations throughout the nation, but only SEVEN were produced in over a two-year span. His most recent climate debacle that came to light rests on decarbonizing the Postal Service.

The government provided the Postal Service with funding to purchase 60,000 “Next Generation Delivery Vehicles” (NGDVs) from defense contractor Oshkosh. Oshkosh has never produced an electric truck and it is obvious why Biden avoided other more established EV manufacturers. Congress approved $3 billion to spend on this $10 billion project derived from the Inflation Reduction Act – the largest guise for climate spending in US history.

Out of that $3 BILLION, only 93 vehicles have been delivered since 2022.  Countless issues have been reported with these NGDVs from leaks to airbags. Worse, Oshkosh was never equipped to handle the production of 3,000 vehicles, and has stated that they have only been able to produce ONE truck per day. They are now working to refine their manufacturing to create 80 trucks per day. Again, there were other avenues and established factories.

Does anyone believe those small mail trucks are truly polluting the environment? Should the American people simply accept that they may not receive mail when the weather is less than ideal? “Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays these couriers from the swift completion of their appointed rounds” unless forced to drive electric!

Syrian Refugees Refuse to Leave Europe


Posted originally on Dec 19, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

Refugees

The war is over and it is safe for Syrian refugees to return home. Assad is no longer a threat and nations like Austria, Greece, the Netherlands, UK, France, Italy, Belgium, Sweden, Finland, and Norway have suspended new refugee applications. Yet, what about the four million Syrian refugees seeking asylum in the European Union? Reports are circulating the obvious – they have no plans to return home.

“Why should you go back when you have everything here?… In Syria I no longer have a home, a job or friends. I will only fly to Syria for holidays and to visit family – probably next year when the airport is open again,” one 27-year-old male refugee told Welt news outlet.

Syria’s new leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani conducted an interview with an Italian news outlet one day after taking power. His first priorities are to restore security and stability in all Syrian cities, saying his people have been “exhausted by injustice and tyranny.” His second priority is “to bring back the millions of Syrian refugees who are scattered around the world,” he stated. “Their human capital and experience will help restart the country. My appeal goes out to all Syrians abroad: Syria is now a free country that has regained its pride and dignity. Come back. We need to rebuild, to get our country on its feet again, and we need everyone’s help.”

His third priority should perhaps be his second: strategic planning and restoring basic essential services like electricity and stabilizing the food supply. Still, Syria needs patriots to come home to help rebuild their nation.

Regardless, European nations have never had the resources to fund millions of asylum seekers. Thanks to former Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany boasts the largest Syrian population in the EU. HALF of all welfare recipients in Germany are of foreign origin or 2.7 million people. They have been comfortably living in Germany with no plans to return, in fact, 23% of Germany’s population is now migrants of children of migrants. This is one of the reasons we are seeing people turn to the AfD Party as the people do not want to subsidize the lives of millions who no longer even qualify as refugees.

Refugeee Welcome

Breitbart reported the same sentiments among refugees living across Europe. As one UK-based refugee stated: “After seven years of living in the UK, I don’t think I will go back… Some of those now in charge of Syria were members of al-Qaeda just a few years ago. I don’t think Syria is safe now, in a few months and possibly not even in a year.” The cost of supporting each refugee has spiked to 41,000 pounds per year.

Ideas such as free air travel back to Syria and cash incentives have been thrown around, but that does not outweigh the luxury of living in a developed nation free of charge and often above the law.

Darren Beattie: Major Lie of J6 Wielded Against The American People And Trump Will Be Exposed


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Dec 17, 2024 at 10:00 pm EST

Viva Frei Discusses the Imminent Downfall of Canada’s Far-Left Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau


Posted originally on Rumble By Charlie Kirk show on: Dec 17, 2024 at 3:00 pm EST

Brazil into 2025


Posted originally on Dec 18, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

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QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Like so many others, I cannot express my gratitude for creating Socrates. You provide forecasting for the entire world. In Brazil, Socrates has been a light in the middle of darkness. Our central bank has had to intervene four times, desperately trying to prevent the collapse of our currency, as we see nothing but soaring budget deficits. We are witnessing the wholesale spread across assets. Our government dollar bonds are declining despite being denominated in the US dollar. Our hopeless president, who the West cheered, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, proposed new income tax breaks alongside a plan to cut over $11 billion in spending last month. Lula has no idea about the economy.

Could you please comment on Brazil as we go, so does South America?

Enzo

ANSWER: It is so important to look at the entire world. We are all connected. However, looking at the array for South America it does not suggest that everyone will follow Brazil. Nevertheless, the US dollar should continue its advance into 2025. I would be concerned about the May/June time period next year. We are looking at the collapse of socialism. The election of Lula da Silva was an act of economic suicide for Brazil. Silva was elected in 2022 to be the president of Brazil. That was a stunning comeback following a very tight run-off race that was not without controversy. His victory heralded a political about-face for Latin America’s largest country. You can see the economic consequences ever since the US dollar reversed direction and was projecting going into 2025 for a major high. Bolsonaro is ahead of da Silva in the polls for the next 2026 election. It certainly appears that the US dollar will rally into 2025, impacting your 2026 election.

BRICS 2
Brazil 1 real

A year-end closing above 5.98, which the market is trading above currently, should confirm a new high for the dollar into 2025. Looking into next year, the overhead resistance will stand at 6.31, 6.79, and 7.27. Brazil is a founding member of the BRICS. The collapse of their currency files in the face of propaganda about how the BRICS will kill the dollar. They lack the economy and certainly the financial capability. As you mentioned, they had to issue debt in dollars to raise money. As the dollar rallies, those emerging markets that issued dollar-denominated debt are being pushed closer and closer to default in 2025.

The Majority Must Always Be Wrong


Posted Dec 17, 2024 by Martin Armstrong 

You are all Wrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I am new to your blog. My friends here have been on my case to listen to you. Our government has fallen, and I have observed one thing. Your forecasts are correct because nobody here will ever make a bold forecast, and they all seem to preach the same scenario. You have been accurate on Germany against the herd of analysts here. One by one, European nations are falling, and I can now see your 2032 and the e collapse of governments unfolding before our eyes. What do you see in 2025 for Germany? You have a solution for the United States. Could you save Europe from itself?

Thank you

DT

Armstrong Majority must be Wrong

ANSWER: Because I am not an academic, what I speak comes from experience and direct observation. The only economic theories that have survived are exclusively from those who have been traders – not academics. John Law traded on the Amsterdam exchange and gave birth to Supply and Demand. He articulated his famous water vs diamond analogy, which stated that water was vital to society. Still, water had little value compared to a diamond that had no true utility value yet was worth more than water. Even David Ricardo was involved in trading and saw the implications of international capital flows. He expressed that a nation should focus on its comparative advantage – something Trump must understand.

Greek Hoard

Sir Thomas Gresham also traded on the same Amsterdam exchange and saw that debasement drove out the older coinage from the money supply. Gresham’s Law became that bad money drove good out of circulation. We saw this even during the 3rd century AD when people hoarded the old silver coins and spent the debased. Even Albert Einstein, I was told, got his idea of general relativity from moving up and down in an elevator. Albert’s special theory of relativity appeared to be incompatible with the gravitational force as described by Newton’s law of gravity.

May 1928 Fed Raises Rates

Most analysts espouse the same old nonsense and project the future based on what the central bank will or will not do. These analysts are not real, for all they purport is the same Keynesian theories they were taught in school. Sorry – they were an academic theory inspired by Marx and no longer work. Even Paul Volcker, former Fed Chairman, delivered his speech – the Rediscovery of the Business Cycle, in which he stated that the “new economics” ultimately failed. Any analyst who points to the Fed has never read the memos. Here, we have the thinking process before Keynes. The Fed raised rates in May 1928 and continued into the 1929 high with no effect.

CALLMONY MA

Here is a chart of call money rates from the NYSE. Just look closely. We see that 1929 was the biggest stock market rally but the lowest level of interest rates, all because of the capital inflows. The Panic of 1899 saw rates rise to virtually 200% because of the capital outflows. There is no such theory of stock market up interest rates down that can be verified whatsoever.

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You are correct. Europe is imploding one nation at a time. As I have said many times, the creation of the euro was a compromise, and it could never rival the dollar, forcing institutional investors to still pick and choose between member states lacking a national debt market. Mr Scholz is a disaster. He lost a vote of confidence by 394 to 207, with 116 members of the Bundestag abstaining. Scholz’s last-ditch attempt to retain power with promises of massive spending fell flat on its face. This will send Germany to the election in February, precisely when our computer has been projecting a Panic Cycle in advance. Leaders from several major parties have since agreed to move up the parliamentary election to February 23, seven months ahead of schedule.

EU Parliament
Europe can it be saved

I would gladly fly to Brussels to address all members at once. But you must understand the computer forecasts that my best efforts will not succeed. Each member retained its debt. If Germany listened, it would pressure others to follow or be left behind. But politicians have been brainwashed by the NEOCONs and NATO and are preparing for a third World War which the computer forecasts that they will lose. This will be the demise of the West. I suppose historically, we all have our minutes of fame.

Charlemagne 3

In 800AD, Pope Leo III crowned Charlemagne (768-814AD) Holy Roman Emperor. Today, Charlemagne is referred to by some as the father of Europe. From that date, the EU is not likely to exist after 2029. Europe is heading in the wrong direction, and NATO is pushing for World War III, and there is not a single government even willing to negotiate. That makes it very hard. In all reality, I suspect they would only listen to me in 2029 and beyond.