Posted originally on the CTH on January 5, 2023 | Sundance
That slow grinding creak you hear in the background; that’s the U.S. economic engine running without oil and beginning that slowdown phase just before it stutters and stalls completely. Alas, the pretending continues…
As noted by the Wall Street Journal, an economic gaslighting institution with a central mission to maintain pretenses, “business surveys show U.S. factory activity declined in December, the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global both said this week. Separately, S&P Global said Thursday that U.S. services-sector businesses reported a decline in output for the third month running in December.” This comes as “U.S. imports dropped more, by 6.4% on the month, as Americans cut back on holiday-related purchases, including items from other countries such as computers and autos.”
Keep in mind, November retail sales—which included consumer spending at stores, online and at restaurants—fell 0.6% from the prior month for their biggest decline of 2022, according to the Commerce Department. Manufacturing output declined in November as well, the Fed reported, while U.S. home sales fell for a record 10th straight month.
Into this mix of economic metrics, driven by a collapse in disposable consumer income and high energy prices, now we begin to see the number one business expense being curtailed.
(Market Watch) […] Amazon.com Inc layoffs will affect more than 18,000 employees, the highest reduction tally revealed in the past year at a major technology company as the industry pares back amid economic uncertainty.
The Seattle-based company in November said that it was beginning layoffs among its corporate workforce, with cuts concentrated on its devices business, recruiting and retail operations. At the time, The Wall Street Journal reported the cuts would total about 10,000 people. Thousands of those cuts began last year. (more)
Amazon is not alone, “Vimeo said Wednesday that it will cut its workforce by 11% as part of a broader effort to reduce costs, citing deteriorating economic conditions” (link). Additionally, Salesforce Inc. is laying off 10% of its workforce and reducing its office space in certain markets, extending a brutal period for tech job cuts into the new year.”
We can anticipate more reports like this from Reuters, “Samsung Electronics Co Ltd’s quarterly profit will likely plunge 58% to its lowest in six years as a global economic downturn saps demand for electronic devices and clouds the outlook for the memory chip industry. With consumers and businesses reducing spending and investment in the face of high inflation and climbing interest rates, smartphone makers and other clients held back memory chip orders, while smartphones sold for less as demand suffered, analysts said.”
Electronics, cars, furniture, durable goods of all types and varieties are plummeting in sales. Consumers are being squeezed by inflation, housing, energy and food costs, and spending priorities are being reevaluated yet again. Compare the impact on ‘real wages’ -vs- the 2007/2008 economic crisis.
From a purely fraudulent accounting perspective, however, the drop in U.S. imports will help boost calculations of U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter because trade deficits subtract from overall output, or gross domestic product.
U.S. consumers not purchasing imported goods makes the health of the U.S. economy look less bad; but it’s an illusion akin to smiles in the bread lines.
In other economic news, I did some real estate analysis over the past several days and it’s safe to say there is a steep downward trajectory in the data I use. Again, home values are nuanced on a regional level, but my model is pretty close in averaging.
If buyers do not absorb the seller’s loss in equity (which no one should ever do), in my SWFL area a $450k home listing is going to sell around $380k at the high side (actual value based on economic indicators and buyer ability). That rough estimate, while slightly offset due to general inflation, should trend nationally over the next 12 to 18 months. That means macro home prices dropping around 15 to 20% nationally over the next 12 months.
If you are a home buyer, put your offers around 15 to 20% below current asking price without any emotional attachment to it. Don’t flinch, remain ambivalent and walk away if refused. The recovery to current price will take around a decade. If you are a seller and get an offer within -10% of asking, consider yourself lucky and jump on it.
Posted originally on the CTH on January 5, 2023 | Sundance
The tenth round of ballot counting continues in the House chamber. However, it looks like an 11th ballot will be necessary as Kevin McCarthy has failed, yet again, to gain the support of 21 House Republican holdouts.
Inside the beltway rumors have surfaced that after the 9th failed attempt, groundhog McCarthy exited the chambers, stepped outside, saw his shadow and thus predicted another six weeks of ballot counting was likely. As noted by Politico, “the California Republican fell short in his bid for the speaker’s gavel in seventh, eighth, ninth, and now tenth ballots — a history-making stalemate that has paralyzed the party’s new majority.”
WASHINGTON DC– […] The next steps for McCarthy are unclear. GOP leadership is mulling trying to adjourn the chamber to give McCarthy more time to hold meetings and solidify a deal that they hope will win him the speaker’s gavel. But such a move would require help from Democrats or near unimity from Republicans, who only narrowly won an unruly vote Wednesday to adjourn for the night.
And Republicans are still trying to figure out if the glimmers of hope over the potential deal are just a mirage. McCarthy met nearly every one of the holdouts’ demands, but it’s not clear it will be enough to get him across the finish line. And in a slim majority, he can’t afford to alienate the other side of his conference, where centrists and institutionalists already have heartburn over the offered deal. (read more)
Voting continues. Meme creators continue working overtime.
Posted originally on the CTH on January 5, 2023 | Sundance
Most people are unaware that outside lobbyist groups hold the power over the internal dynamic. In addition to internal financial systems, each congressperson is aligned with a lobbyist group that pays for their political election efforts, sort of like a corporate sponsor in a professional sports team. Ultimately the sponsors determine what issues the politician supports. This is the business end of DC politics.
According to Politico, the Congressional Leadership Fund (team McCarthy) has come to an agreement with the Club for Growth Fund (team not McCarthy) and worked out a deal the representatives may be permitted to support. The deal “includes a vote on term limits for members, more seats for Freedom Caucus members on the powerful House Rules Committee and allowing a single member to force a vote on ousting the speaker.” The voting continues today.
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Most people think when they vote for a federal politician -a House or Senate representative- they are voting for a person who will go to Washington DC and write or enact legislation. This is the old-fashioned “schoolhouse rock” perspective based on decades past. There is not a single person in congress writing legislation or laws.
In modern politics not a single member of the House of Representatives or Senator writes a law, or puts pen to paper to write out a legislative construct.
This simply doesn’t happen.
Over the past several decades a system of constructing legislation has taken over Washington DC that more resembles a business operation than a legislative body. Here’s how it works right now.
Outside groups, often called “special interest groups”, are entities that represent their interests in legislative constructs. These groups are often representing foreign governments, Wall Street multinational corporations, banks, financial groups or businesses; or smaller groups of people with a similar connection who come together and form a larger group under an umbrella of interest specific to their affiliation.
Sometimes the groups are social interest groups, activists, climate groups, environmental interests etc. The social interest groups are usually non-profit constructs who depend on the expenditures of government to sustain their cause or need.
The for-profit groups (mostly business) have a purpose in Washington DC to shape policy, legislation and laws favorable to their interests. They have fully staffed offices just like any business would – only their ‘business‘ is getting legislation for their unique interests.
These groups are filled with highly paid lawyers who represent the interests of the entity and actually write laws and legislation briefs.
In the modern era this is actually the origination of the laws that we eventually see passed by congress. Within the walls of these buildings within Washington DC is where the ‘sausage’ is actually made.
Again, no elected official is usually part of this law origination process.
Almost all legislation created is not ‘high profile’, they are obscure changes to current laws, regulations or policies that no-one pays attention to. The passage of the general bills within legislation is not covered in media. Ninety-nine percent of legislative activity happens without anyone outside the system even paying any attention to it.
Once the corporation or representative organizational entity has written the law they want to see passed – they hand it off to the lobbyists.
The lobbyists are people who have deep contacts within the political bodies of the legislative branch, usually former House/Senate staff or former House/Senate politicians themselves.
The lobbyist takes the written brief, the legislative construct, and it’s their job to go to congress and sell it.
“Selling it” means finding politicians who will accept the brief, sponsor their bill and eventually get it to a vote and passage. The lobbyist does this by visiting the politician in their office, or, most currently familiar, by inviting the politician to an event they are hosting. The event is called a junket when it involves travel.
Often the lobbying “event” might be a weekend trip to a ski resort, or a “conference” that takes place at a resort. The actual sales pitch for the bill is usually not too long and the majority of the time is just like a mini vacation etc.
The size of the indulgence within the event, the amount of money the lobbyist is spending, is customarily related to the scale of benefit within the bill the sponsoring business entity is pushing. If the sponsoring business or interest group can gain a lot of financial benefit from the legislation, they spend a lot on the indulgences.
Recap: Corporations (special interest group) write the legislation. Lobbyists take the law and go find politician(s) to support it. Politicians get support from their peers using tenure and status etc. Eventually, if things go according to norm, the legislation gets a vote.
Within every step of the process there are expense account lunches, dinners, trips, venue tickets and a host of other customary financial waypoints to generate/leverage a successful outcome. The amount of money spent is proportional to the benefit derived from the outcome.
The important part to remember is that the origination of the entire process is EXTERNAL to congress.
Congress does not write laws or legislation; special interest groups do. Lobbyists are paid, some very well paid, to get politicians to go along with the need of the legislative group.
When you are voting for a Congressional Rep or a U.S. Senator you are not voting for a person who will write laws. Your rep only votes on legislation to approve or disapprove of constructs that are written by outside groups and sold to them through lobbyists who work for those outside groups.
While all of this is happening the same outside groups who write the laws are providing money for the campaigns of the politicians, they need to pass them. This construct sets up the quid-pro-quo of influence, although much of it is fraught with plausible deniability.
This is the way legislation is created.
If your frame of reference is not established in this basic understanding you can often fall into the trap of viewing a politician, or political vote, through a false prism. The modern origin of all legislative constructs is not within congress.
“we’ll have to pass the bill to, well, find out what is in the bill” etc. ~ Nancy Pelosi 2009 “We rely upon the stupidity of the American voter” ~ Johnathan Gruber 2011, 2012.
Once you understand this process you can understand how politicians get rich.
When a House or Senate member becomes educated on the intent of the legislation, they have attended the sales pitch; and when they find out the likelihood of support for that legislation; they can then position their own (or their families) financial interests to benefit from the consequence of passage. It is a process similar to insider trading on Wall Street, except the trading is based on knowing who will benefit from a legislative passage.
The legislative construct passes from K-Street into the halls of congress through congressional committees. The law originates from the committee to the full House or Senate. Committee seats which vote on these bills are therefore more valuable to the lobbyists. Chairs of these committees are exponentially more valuable.
No legislation provided by outside interests means no work for lobbyists who sell it. No work means no money. No money means no expense accounts. No expenses mean politicians paying for their own indulgences etc.
In the aftermath of President Trump winning the 2016 election, politicians on both sides were not happy – but the issue was actually bigger. No K-Street expenditures also means no personal benefit; and no opportunity to advance financial benefit from the insider trading system.
Without the ability to position personal wealth for benefit, why would a politician stay in office? The income of many long-term politicians on both Republican and Democrat sides of the aisle was completely disrupted by President Trump winning the election. That is one of the key reasons why so many politicians retired immediately thereafter.
When we understand the business of DC, we understand the difference between legislation with a traditional purpose and modern legislation with a financial and political agenda.
Lastly, this is why -when signing legislation- President Trump often said “they’ve been trying to get this through for a long time” etc. Most of the legislation passed by congress and signed by President Trump in his first term was older legislative proposals, with little indulgent value, that were shelved in years past.
Example: Criminal justice reform did not carry a financial benefit to the legislative bodies, and there was no financial interest funding the politicians to pass the bill. If you look at most of the bills President Trump has signed, with the exception of a few economic bills, they stem from congressional construction many years ago.
Zelensky is just an actor and he has been playing the entire world into handing him money without any accountability. He claims he is fighting for freedom and democracy when he refuses to comply with the Minsk Agreement which falsely was to allow those in the Donbas to vote on their own future. Now he has empowered his government to shut down all dissent. Upon his return from meeting the Biden Administration, he took back some needed advice – restrict ALL media, block ALL websites that expose the truth, and order Big Tech to censor all negative comments about him or Ukraine. This site is not blocked even in China – it will be in Ukraine. So much for freedom, democracy, and free speech.
It was Kyiv that started the war by sending troops to attack the Donbas in 2014 and that was the West’s installed “temporary” government that started the war – not any elected Ukrainian government. Zelensky was elected promising to pursue peace and end corruption. He has done exactly the opposite. So much for campaign promises. They always say whatever they need to win, and then do the exact opposite. When Zelensky was elected, the Russian press cheered. They thought this actor would actually seek peace.
Zelensky Realized it Was His Opportunity To Become a Billionaire
Our inflation models came in at 32% for 2022. This does not include things like paper clips to bring down the entire average. This number is the basic core inflation that consists of food, energy, and transportation. We do not include housing values which rose about 11% in 2022, but because that is the national average, it understands places such as Texas and Flordia and over states California and areas such as Chicago.
Our index attempts to reflect the national core inflation of things that most people use. The largest increase was obvious fuel between gasoline and diesel used in trucking and homes averaging 65%+, eggs were up nearly 50%, flour rose by 25%, cooking oil 23%, Butter was up 35%, Chicken by 14%, and Rice by 18%.
The more things you throw in, the lower the inflation rate. The national average rise in rental rates was 7.8%, in Florida it was 8.5%, and in NYC 1.5% when controlled.
If we broaden the list to include rents and coffee, which was up 15%, we can bring it down to about 27%. The Fed broaden the scope so widely that the rate come down to about 7%. The more you include, the lower the inflation rate. The object is to reduce government spending which is indexed to the CPI.
Belarus has issued a Draft for all men 18 to 60 years old. This war that our leaders are determined to create is going to be beyond anything previously contemplated. Even the US will most likely adopt a draft and it will be highly probable that it will be to at least to age 45 but perhaps even higher.
The Ukrainian people are FOOLS! Zelensky has been paid off to sacrifice his entire country. He is the modern-day Judas betraying his own people for a handful of silver. The West wants this war and they are using the Ukrainian people as cannon fodder to weaken Russia before they make their invasion to seek justice and retribution for Ukraine. There was a Donbas Referendum of 1994, in which the whole world turned a blind eye to those people who have been denied basic human rights because they are ethnically Russian. This is a premeditated war that they need to collapse the monetary system and get to create Bretton Woods II with digital currencies and sovereign debt will all simply evaporate.
Welcome to the real world that these people are openly trying to create where they solidify their authoritarian control and the end of any right to vote.
For those who have asked for the original 1995/1996 Tax Proposal that was on Capitol Hill in a single file, here it is. For those who just want the sections in a more manageable manner, click on this like here.
Posted originally on the CTH on January 5, 2023 | sundance
Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is one of the primary voices against Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) for the House speaker role. Gaetz appeared on Fox News to discuss the background issues with Kevin McCarthy and the lack of trust held by the group opposing him.
Additionally, Gaetz refuses to accept the criticism from former House republicans who created the crisis of confidence within the American electorate. When challenged about the specific criticism, Gaetz does a good job putting context to the failed republican efforts over the past 15 years. The video is a good encapsulation of the current status. WATCH (prompted to 02:29):
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The House will reconvene at Noon Thursday to continue the process of trying to nominate a speaker.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America