Tag Archives: Erdogan

Apr 2 2018

Greco-Turkish War – Is it Inevitable?


Armstrong Economics Blog/War

Re-Posted Apr 2, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Message: Hi, huge respect for your eye-opening work. You mention that war is more likely to erupt in the middle east than Korea. Since middle east seems to be in a state of perpetual combat in different areas, do you think war could expand as Turkey is more & more openly hostile to Greece? The average Greek is no longer considering if it happens, more like when it will happen. Does Socrates provide a forecast on this?

Regards,

S, Athens.

ANSWER: Actually, the primary target for a peak in any Greco-Turkish war will arrive in 2022. What we must understand is we have a major convergence between the Cycle of War and the Economic Confidence Model (ECM). What this means is the increased risk of geopolitical tensions are enhanced by economic downturns. This is what I have been warning about with the collapse of Socialism. As the endless promises of governments crumble to dust, politicians are faced with (1) the overthrow of their governments, or (2) create an external enemy to shift the blame from themselves. Therefore, as the economy turns down, interest rates will invert and rise when people no longer trust a government, and the fabric of the political-economy will be torn apart at the seams. This is historically the most dangerous point for at that moment, the government will turn to create external enemies.

When communism fell in 1989, the military establishment was no longer really needed. They needed to create external enemies to justify maintaining their position, status, and funding. Therefore, Russia continued to be the enemy of the USA simply because they needed one. When I would ask WHY was Russia our enemy if they were no longer Communist, the reply was dumbfounding: “Well they are Russian!” Even Ukraine was a power-play. The Eastern part of the country was ethnically Russian. The country should have simply been split north to south down the language border. Crimea was always a strategic port of Russia. If Japan told America to get out of Okinawa, the US response would be no different than Russia’s – America would occupy Okinawa. So why put sanctions on Russia for doing what the Americans or British have always done throughout history? The answer was just the military establishment needs an enemy – not peace. World peace means they are out of a job. They like those gold stars on their shoulders.

Therefore, as we head down into the economic abyss, the political necessity for war will be on the rise. Ergodan needs an external enemy. He is desperate for war and it will take two fronts – Kurds and the Greeks. He can easily stir the old pot of hate to retain power. This is what any politician does. Even Hillary during the election, as well as all the Democrats, stir the economic pot of class warfare to divide the nation just to get power. They also need that hatred of people who have more to win power. The people cheer and will one day storm the houses of the rich and will set them ablaze or drag them out and hang them. This is traditional and it is one primary reason class warfare is highly dangerous and undermines the foundation of any state. So this is what we face. Look at everything in that context and you will begin to see the conflicts deliberately created by the political class to retain power in ALL societies.

The first modern Greco-Turkish War following the fall of the Ottoman Empire is called the Thirty Days’ War, which took place against a rising Greek concern over conditions in Crete. This centered on the Turkish domination and where relations between the Christians and their Muslim rulers had been deteriorating rapidly. 1896 saw a rebellion on Crete instigated to a large extent by the secret Greek nationalistic society called Ethniki Etairia. They sought to fuel the historic resentment between the Christians and Muslims and they sought to create an opportunity to annex the island for the Greeks. Therefore, by the beginning of 1897, Greece sent arms to Crete to support a rebellion and revolution. On January 21, 1897, the Greek fleet was mobilized and in February Greek troops actually landed on the island proclaiming the annexation of Crete to Greece. The following month, the European powers imposed a blockade upon Greece to stop the arms shipments. The European powers feared that the whole of the Balkans would see vengeance upon the Turks.

The Greeks sent a force to launch an attack on the Turks in Thessaly (April). By the end of April, Greeks were overwhelmed by the Turkish army. The Greeks yielded to pressure from the European powers and withdrew their troops from Crete accepting an armistice on the mainland on May 20th, 1897. On December 4, 1897, a treaty was signed compelling Greece to pay the Turks an indemnity, to accept an international financial commission that would control Greek finances, and to yield some territory in Thessaly back to Turkey. Subsequently, the Turkish troops also left Crete, which had been made an international protectorate in 1898. Crete was finally ceded to Greece by the Treaty of London (1913), which ended the First Balkan War.

The second Greco-Turkish War occurred after World War I, when the Greeks attempted to extend their territory beyond eastern Thrace and the district of Smyrna. These territories had been given to Greece by the Treaty of Sèvres, August 10th, 1920. In January 1921 the Greek army launched an offensive in Anatolia against the nationalist Turks, who had defied the Ottoman government and would not recognize its treaty. In Greece, the war was followed by a successful military coup against the monarchy.

The Treaty of Lausanne concluded on July 24th, 1923, obliged Greece to return eastern Thrace and the islands of Imbros and Tenedos to Turkey, as well as to give up its claim to Smyrna. The two belligerents also agreed to exchange their Greek and Turkish minority populations. To this day, Turkey retains designs on regions it yielded to Greece.

As the economy and hyperinflation continue in Turkey, the government desperately needs an external enemy. So yes. The tensions will continue to rise and this is seen as inevitable in Athens and the resentment goes back to the Persian invasion of Greece in ancient times. Even the culture of the Minoans were the origins of the Greeks. Anatolia was all Greek cities that filled modern Turkey. The fall of Constantinople in 1453 was the invasion of the Turks who were Muslim. So the traditional ethnic origin was Greek and the language of the Eastern Roman Empire ruled from Constantinople was Greek – not Latin.

The last Emperor, Constantine XI (1448-1453), died in battle fighting the Turkish invasion. Beware November 2018. Things seem to begin picking up about then.

Mar 29 2018

When will North Korea Rise to Overthrow Kim Jung Un?


Armstrong Economics Blog/North Korea

Re-Posted Mar 29, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: You said that Kim Jung Un was at risk of being overthrown and therefore he would have to shift direction or go to war. When do you see North Korea falling?

PP

ANSWER: When Korea was split in 1945 into communist North against the South, the terrain has always dictated the situation. About 65% of Korea’s heavy industry was located in the north, but, due to the harshness of the terrain, only 37% of its agriculture existed in the North. This is why the North often has bouts of famine.

 

ECM-Dynamic

 

I have warned that the Economic Confidence Model has three distinct components. There is the main wave frequency based upon Pi of 8.6 years which builds into 6 waves forming the major wave of 51.6 years which seems to be the generational shifting wave that manifests in political changes between public and private trends.

Then there is the Volatility Wave component. This is what causes one 8.6 year wave to be more pronounced than another. The volatility component has a frequency of 6 years which is a slower moving wave taking 12 unit waves to build into the ultimate volatility peaks of 72-year intervals.

The Schema Frequency I do not reveal. To put this in context, it is the DNA wave of a coded pattern throughout time. This will be the last thing I ever reveal if I decide to do so. The jury is still out. This is what everyone has tried to get from me for so long. It is the key to the interaction of waves.

On August 8th, 1945 (1945.602), the Soviet Union declared war on Japan. Soviet troops advanced and the US government feared Russia would occupy the whole of Korea. On August 10th, the US government proposed the 38th parallel division.

Therefore, the 72-year of volatility began during the summer of last year – 2017.602 (August 7th). Communism fell on its 72-year cycle (1917-1989). The Soviet Union broke up 2 years into that cyclical event. This places the same timing risk cor North Korea going into 2019-2020.

The 51.6-year cycle from 1945 (1997.202) marked the start of the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis. Kim Jung Un was conducting missile tests that began on February 12, 2017, last year, which was just a KN-15 Pukguksone type. Thereafter tests took place on March 6th, March 22nd, April 5th, April 16th, April 29th, May 14th, May 21st, May 29th, and June 8th. The intercontinental ballistic missile tests began with the Hwasong 14 on July 4th, probably because of the American Independence holiday. That is when the attention began to really turn to North Korea and that began almost to the day of the 72-year turning point.

The entire world is going to go nuts 2031/2032. There will not be a country that is spared from political and economic events. The risk a serious famine in North Korea which could result in the people rising up will arrive in 2023. That pressure will begin here this year 2018.70 – which will be September 13th, 2018. This appears to the turning point that is not just concerning North Korea. It is appearing around the world in many markets. The risk for political change in North Korea comes into play as soon as 2019/2020.

Mar 28 2018

Why Syria has ALWAYS been Strategic


Armstrong Economics Blog/Middle East

Re-Posted Mar 28, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Syria has always been strategic throughout recorded history. You had to pass through it between Babylon and Egypt. However, as world trade began to emerge, the connections between China and the ancient Roman Empire were fully developed through the Silk Road. Spices were always worth their weight in gold and even during the Middle Ages, bankers were called “pepper-men” because pepper was more valuable than gold by weight.

Following the death of  Alexander the Great in 323 BC, his generals divided up the territory he had conquered. After the Battle of Ipsus in 301 BC, Seleucus I Nicator (458-281BC) won the territory of Syria. Seleucus founded four cities in northwestern Syria, one of which was Antioch. He named this city in honor of his father Antiochus or perhaps his son who was named after his grandfather. It was founded on a site chosen through ritual means. Reportedly, an eagle, the bird of Zeus, had been given a piece of sacrificial meat and the city was founded on the site to which the eagle carried the offering. Seleucus did this on the 22nd day of the month of Artemisios in the twelfth year of his reign, which in modern terms was May 300 BC.

Antioch quickly rose to become the Syrian capital. Antioch flourished due to trade. Caravan merchants began to bring goods from China to the marketplace in Antioch. This was the beginning of the Silk Road in ancient times. Antioch benefited from Roman rule. The Historia Augusta mentions a great fire in Antioch, implying that the emperor Antoninus Pius (138-161AD) offered help to restore the city because it had become the gateway to a fabled great empire in the East. This legend of a great Empire in China had even inspired Alexander the Great to attempt to reach it giving up in India.

Antioch became an extremely important port of trade in the ancient world. It flourished and any major natural disaster would send financial panic down the banking street in Rome – Via Sacra. When the city sometimes suffered earthquakes as recorded during the reigns of Tiberius (14-37AD), Caligula (37-41AD), Hadrian (117-138AD), and Diocletian (284-305AD). Its governor Pescennius Niger (193-194AD) proclaimed himself emperor, he lost the war against his rival Septimius Severus, (193-211AD) who temporarily took away its independence of Antioch, giving it to Laodicea to control as punishment.

During the 3rd century, Antioch was the city of innovation. Street lighting appears also in this city during the 3rd Century AD as Saint Jerome (345-420AD) commented in his writings that the capital of ancient Syria was lit up at night by oil lamps hung over ropes that were strung over the streets. By 371AD, this invention spread to Caesarea in Turkey. China, on the other hand, was reported to be lighting up its streets using natural gas supplied through bamboo pipes by Medieval times.

China throughout history became rich by trade with the Roman Empire. Yet the history of Rome that claimed to rule the world (orbis terrarum) stood at the opposite end of the world from the strikingly similar Han Dynasty (206BC-220AD) in China, which also claimed to have ruled the world (tianxia). There is the History Book for Tang-Dynasty in China covering the period 618-907AD. Yet the text mentions 17 times what appears to be the Roman Empire . It also describes an envoy that was sent by the Roman Emperor to China. The Roman Emperor was recorded to have been “Anton” .

The account of such an envoy who visited the older Han Dynasty predates the Venetian traveler Marco Polo (1254-1325) by more than 1,000 years. This envoy has been attributed to 166AD during the reign of Marcus Aurelius Antoninus (121-180AD). It is the death of Marcus Aurelius, that has marked the peak in the Roman Empire and the turning point that begins the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire where its monetary system collapses just 72 years thereafter. This envoy established diplomatic contact at the peak of the Roman Empire from which a disastrous decline begins. Any political-economic aspirations to further such a relationship would then die with Marcus Aurelius. Yet also, both empires would suffer the same fate of barbarian invasions. The Han Dynasty falls in 220AD from which emerges the chaotic period known as the Three Kingdoms (220-280AD) – the division of the once unified Chinese Empire.

There is hard evidence that demonstrates that there was direct contact between Rome and China going back to the period of 180AD. The connection point has ALWAYS been Syria. China is also backing Syria with money. The Chinese are looking to build on the old world power position of the historic Silk Road (One belt, one road). China has never actively participated in the war militarily but has ensured financing their goals. Syria maintains close economic relations with Russia and China because of the stupidity of the West, which began with stopping a pipeline to compete with Russia. Likewise, despite being a member of NATO, Turkey is flirting with the expansion of Turkish-Chinese relations in addition to it historical ties with Russia.

As strange as it might sound, China has more skin-in-the-game with Syria than Russia. The Russians had to intervene after it became apparent that the international and Islamist mercenaries were heading for the Russian military base in Latakia. Russia and China clearly complement each other on the worldwide stage of politics. Both suffered Communist revolutions and they are the most important security players in that part of the world. China has provided the economic security while Russia provides the military security.

Syria is the focal point in the Middle East. It is where all the power meets for economic reasons. This seems to be the way for thousands of years.

Mar 27 2018

Germany Arrests Former Head of Catalonia for Spain Confirm the Spanish Constitution Violates Human Rights


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized

Re-Posted Mar 27, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

One day soon, the world will suddenly discover that the European project is authoritarian because they believe the people as stupid and politicians know better. When that day dawns, the crisis in Europe will erupt in total shock and this will undermine the entire economy which has rapidly fallen to even behind China. At the core of this true European Crisis is the fact that individual human rights come behind the rights of politicians. Make no mistake about it, politicians in the West secretly admire China where some view the model for democracy in the West as crumbling before their eyes.

Germany has arrested the former Catalan Prime Minister Carles Puigdemont enforcing Spain’s dictatorship and anti-Democratic government to save the EU. Spain is by NO MEANS a democratic nation and evidence of that statement is the Spanish Constitution. It exempts all politicians and Judges holding them above the law and denies the right of the people to even disagree with the government. Puigdemont was arrested on the German-Danish border traveling from Finland to Belgium. The state police office in Kiel announced that Puigdemont had been arrested and the charge is advocating a democratic vote in Catalonia to separate from Spain. This is the most outrageous legal persecution that has taken place since the Communist Revolution in Russia who imprisoned or killed anyone who opposed them.

Puigdemont proclaimed Catalonia’s independence from Spain in October, that Madrid says violating the constitution. Their interpretation of their Constitution is permanent slavery no different from the positions of France and Britain that justified the French and American Revolutions. Then the Spanis judiciary began investigations into rebellion and charged Puigdemont and other leading separatists who were forced to then flee to Belgium into exile. Clearly, anyone one charges with a political crime MUST leave Europe for the governments will conspire to save the EU.

Puigdemont went to Finland to attend a conference and Spain submitted an application for the arrest of the deposed regional president. Finland then agreed to arrest Puigdemont so he fled to return to Belgium. Germany intercepted him and arrested him and he now faces 25 years in prison where he will certainly die. Spain’s Supreme Court opened criminal proceedings against Puigdemont and other regional politicians. Imprisoning people for their political ideas has been the hallmark of tyranny. It is a sad day to watch the ruthless behavior of the Spanish government and its Judiciary is a disgrace to the nation and the Spanish people.

The entire problem underlying this crisis exposes the Spanish Constitution that NEVER truly provided a democratic nation for it did not provide a workable transition from dictatorship to democracy. This Spanish Constitution is a contradictory document that denies any democratic resolution or process and maintains the Franco Dictatorship. In Spain, all members of parliament, including those in regional parliaments, enjoy immunity, judges cannot be dismissed. The Constitution defines political parties as “the main instrument of political participation” (Article 6), giving them a role that goes far beyond the process of public opinion-making, as understood in most democracies.

In Spain, the self-interest of government prevails over the rights of the individual. This is the plain reading of Article 155 (see below). The Franco regime organized the Society around its National Movement and the vertical, professional syndicates. Therefore, it was not even the people as a whole that was considered to be the nation but the party. Following the dictator’s death, Spain did open up to political and trade union pluralism, but there was no real redefining revision of Franco’s means of dictatorship. The citizens do not vote for deputies, but closed lists of a party whose candidates move into Parliament depending on the number of votes. MPs do not have offices in their constituencies.

There is no actual representative form of government when you look closely at the structure. There is no actual accountability for the political party itself and they are isolated from the public opinion and their own base. This is why political corruption runs ramped in Spain – there is no actual direct representation or accountability. The Spanish section of Transparency International called on the parties to abolish the closed lists and publish their campaign budgets no later than three months after the election back in 2014. Nothing has been done.

The entire Spanish Constitution contradicts the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) is an international treaty to protect human rights and fundamental freedoms in Europe. Article 10 of the ECHR provides the right to freedom of expression and information, subject to certain restrictions that are “in accordance with law” and “necessary in a democratic society”. This right includes the freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart information and ideas. However, the Spanish Constitution outright contradicts Article 10 by its Article 155. Clearly, the Spanish Constitution was no more than a compromise between democracy and Francoism. Above all, the fathers of the Spanish Constitution wanted to prevent a civil war by retaining an authoritative clause that allowed dictatorial action. The new constitution was therefore settled between an authoritarian, national Catholic leader system and a democracy and has never actually placed individual liberties in a role of importance violating the very idea of human rights.

The Spanis government will undoubtedly fall. It will be 43 years and ripe for its complete collapse in 2021. The arrest of Puigdemont proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Spanish Constitution denies freedom of expression and human rights. Puigdemont did not engage in violence and thus is simply a political prisoner and Germany is endorsing the dictatorship of Spain.

No one in the EU leadership stand for public election either. No wonder they too support Spain.

The Spanish Constitution

PREAMBLE

The Spanish Nation, wishing to establish justice, liberty and security, and to promote the welfare of all who make part of it, in use of her sovereignty, proclaims its will to:

Guarantee democratic life within the Constitution and the laws according to a just economic and social order.

Consolidate a State ensuring the rule of law as an expression of the will of the people.

Protect all Spaniards and all the peoples of Spain in the exercise of human rights, their cultures and traditions, languages and institutions.

Promote the progress of culture and the economy to ensure a dignified quality of life for all

Establish an advanced democratic society, and

Collaborate in the strengthening of peaceful and efficient cooperation among all the peoples of the Earth.

Consequently, the Cortes approve and the Spanish people ratify the . . . Constitution.

ARTICLE 155

  1. If a Self-governing Community [e.g., Catalonia] does not fulfil the obligations imposed upon it by the Constitution or other laws, or acts in a way that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest of Spain, the Government, after having lodged a complaint with the President of [that] Self-governing Community and failed to receive satisfactory response, may, following approval granted by the overall majority of the Senate, take all measures necessary to compel the Community to meet said obligations, or to protect the abovementioned general interest.
    –
  2. With a view to implementing the measures provided for in the foregoing paragraph, the Government may issue instructions to all the authorities of the Self-governing Communities.

 

Mar 26 2018

Stunning Trial Discovery – Father of Pulse Nightclub Terrorist Was FBI Informant…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on March 26, 2018 by

Omar Mateen was the Islamic terrorist who attacked the Pulse Nightclub in Orlando Florida in June of 2016 killing 49 people.  Mateen’s wife Noor Salman is currently going through trial for assisting her husband leading up to the attack.

Previously it was disclosed Omar Mateen was on the radar of the FBI and interviewed prior to the attack for threatening Sheriff’s deputies.   Stunningly, it is revealed today the shooter’s father Seddique Mateen was an FBI informant from 2005 through 2016.

ORLANDO – […]  Mateen’s father was the subject of motion by Salman’s defense late Sunday, asking for the case against to be thrown out or declared a mistrial and arguing prosecutors failed to disclose that Seddique Mateen is a former confidential informant for the FBI.

Omar Mateen’s father was also investigated after agents assigned to the shooting case found receipts for money transfers to Turkey and Afghanistan, according to the motion filed by Salman’s defense. U.S. District Judge Paul Byron said he would consider the motion later today.

“I’m not going to address it right now,” he said. “It’s gonna take too much time.”

[…]  Mateen’s father, Seddique Mateen, was on the government’s witness list but was never called to testify. His wife, Shahla Mateen, testified. According to the newly filed motion, Seddique Mateen acted as an informant at various points in time between January 2005 and June 2016.

However, he also was found to have made money transfers to Turkey and Afghanistan during the period between March 16, 2016 and June 5, 2016 — a week before the Pulse attack.  (read more)

Mar 26 2018

Spain Arrests Leaders of Catalonia Independence Movement & They Dare to Claim Russia Does Not Respect Democracy?


Armstrong Economics Blog/SPAIN

Re-Posted Mar 26, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

The Spanish government has shown to the entire world that it denies human rights and has absolutely no democratic principles whatsoever. The next step is for the pretend elected government to declare a perpetual state of emergency and suspend all elections nationwide to complete what is rapidly becoming a dictatorship. Thousands in Catalonia have now rise4n up in protest against the Spanish government once again as the arrested the five leaders of the independence movement. The mood in Catalonia is turning more anti-Madrid and based upon the emails we are getting from Spain, many are now beginning to see that how the Spanish government is treating those in Catalonia means that the government views them as well as having no rights.

Clashes with police are being reported with at least 24 demonstrators injured, according to rescue workers. Independent journalists are reporting that policemen in Barcelona were using batons against demonstrators approaching the regional government building. Some demonstrators in Barcelona were even burning pictures of King Felipe VI, which is a crime in Spain. They were also burning photographs of judge Pablo Llarena, who ordered the arrests. The protesters waved Catalan flags and shouted “freedom for political prisoners”.

Spain refuses to respect human rights and Brussels has refused to defend the people because they too seek a dictatorship. The irony here is they have the guts to point the finger at Putin and China as suppressing democracy?

 

Mar 17 2018

Culture – Law – And Different Ways


Armstrong Economics Blog/Rule of Law

Re-Posted Mar 17, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Several women have written in and disagree with what I wrote about prostitution. They argue that 75% of prostitutes come from broken homes, which today is over 50% of marriages. They also state that these girls were abused as children in every way possible and many are runaways. Some also argue that these girls turn to prostitution because they are addicted to drugs and became pregnant at very young ages in their teens and have to support a child on their own.
All of that said, I agree that there are girls that fall into each of those categories. However, There are strikingly different cultures and different solutions around the world that warrant looking at both in Asia and Europe. In Thailand, they have a different culture and sex is not looked down upon as it is in the West. The girls are not drugged out or abducted. They are there to make money typically to support their families, which include their parents. Many also do dream of meeting the right guy in the process. In fact. studies show that 15% of the women in the Thailand sex trade marry their customers when they are foreign men (see a study published by Khon Kaen University).
Amsterdam is also strikingly different. The girls are not drugged out and they fall more into the professional category and some may cling to that dream of meeting Mr. right while others have probably given up on the dream of love at first sight and the knight in shining armor will come to carry them away. Both Thailand and Amsterdam show that even prostitutes do find love, which was the story-line of Pretty Woman.
Similarly, in Japan, there are a few private clubs where the girls are virgins and if you wish to select one, and she agrees, you paid $250,000+ and she was yours. You then had to provide her an apartment in Tokyo and support her as a concubine. She would be there for you whenever you were in Tokyo. They did this to be taken care of and a portion of the money always went back to her family. There are different cultures around the world and different morals.
I know in East Europe, men were going there and pretending to want to marry. They entered into the arranged marriage and took the girl and then promptly sold her into sex slavery. That was common when the Wall Fell in 1989, and parents are wise to that scam these days.  There is just a stark difference between what we see in Thailand and Amsterdam compared to where prostitution is illegal. My point is that if there is a legal industry then the girls are protected and this would tend to reduce the abductions.
I have written before when I was in New York standing on the corner in front of the Plaza hotel during the day, this girl came up to me dressed in genes. She asked if there was anything she could do for me. That is using the words spoken by a hooker, but she looked like 13 to me. I was confused and said no, and she asked again. I was not sure and was giving her the benefit of the doubt because she looked so young. I thought perhaps she wanted money for food or something. Then the doorman came over and told her to get out and she turned and cursed him. I then asked was she a hooker? He said yes she bothered the guests routinely. She was probably a runaway working for someone I suppose.
I knew a girl who worked for me once who was raped by her step-father between 7 and 10. She ran away to an aunt in another State. She was strong enough to tell me the story when she was 25. She did not become a prostitute. I respected her strength and she put her life together.
You can pass all the laws you want. It will not stop the abuse. Amsterdam, Japan, and Thailand are a different issue and there are girls who do hope to meet that special someone.
  • Outlaw booze and you created the Mafia.
  • Outlaw prostitution and you create abduction.
There has to be a better way. Girls are abducted and sold into sex slavery only because it is profitable. Remove the profit with legal competition, and you just may end the abductions. Promote safe-houses for runaways and you may save a life.
Mar 16 2018

Left v Right – Why the Western Society is Really Collapsing


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Mar 16, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

 

QUESTION: Hi Marty,
we just saw the German elections play out. For Germany, this is a huge move to the left – at least in government. They also say that Europe will be strongly supported. I guess that means shoveling money to Brussels and raising it via more and more taxes. Now, I researched everything you wrote about the ride of the right-wing parties in Europe and the separatist movements. I would be interested in your thought on how this plays out. E.g. Germany with its left-wing government. It rather seems to be the case that government will become more and more left-wing. Just as in the Weimar Republic. So I do not think that a right-wing could have enough political force to take power, also since Antifa is MUCH more violent and also more powerful than the right. Politicians blame the right for many things, violent events etc, while in fact, it is a rather docile movement with very little power and if so, only in the hands of individuals who do hardly organize since it really is the promotion of individualism vs group-think (left) and group movements. So from a logical standpoint, it seems rather likely to have the socialist agenda gain power. I know you say it is coming to an end. I trust you are correct. Socialism does not work and people might notice at some point. But it seems to be in a quite distant future still. Could you elaborate on that? Will Immigration finally win and move Europe and Germany into a new societal form? Finally, the European left-wingers are actually importing authoritarianism. Which very ironic since they probably think they are importing voters.

Thanks, Marty.

Best, SP.

ANSWER: Oh yes. I do not think most people outside of Germany understand that. Merkel lost control. To keep power, she had to create a Grand Coalition with the SPD, which has been the Northern socialists with origins that go back to the Weimer Republic and the Communist Revolution. The SPD took power for both they and the CDU of Merkel realized that going back to the people would result in both parties losing even more ground. This is highlighted particularly after the Italian election. I have NEVER been asked for a meeting by anyone in the SPD. They have always fundamentally been opponents of anything my computer has forecast. They have NEVER been interested in what is economically best for the people – they are only interested in imposing their will upon the people because they do not see the same light they do.

Most people have no idea that Lenin was more of a dreamer who at least thought he was benefiting the people. It was Lenin who warned not to allow Stalin to take power after him. He said: “Comrade Stalin, having become Secretary-General, has unlimited authority concentrated in his hands, and I am not sure whether he will always be capable of using that authority with sufficient caution.” Stalin did everything he could to take power. This has been the curse of the left. They see themselves in a war against the producers and whatever action they take, it is always for the good of the people. This attitude marks the left who always seek to subjugate the right. They never believe in human rights other than their own and have historically always taken an authoritarian position painting themselves as the victim being exploited by the right. The official state records showed that Stalin killed about 2.9 million people. However, this does not include those who died from famine in places like Ukraine for example, which stand at about 7 to 10 million. In Ukrainian, they coined a term for what Stain did – Holodomor (Голодомо́р) meaning “to kill by starvation” has remained at the core of why Ukrainians want independence from Russia.

Nymphenburg Palace Home of Bavarian Monarchy

When you look around the globe, what you see is a rising intense fight building between the left v right, i.e. Thieves v Producers in terms of Ann Rand. Simultaneously, we are witnessing the rise of separatism. We see this everywhere. We see in Europe Scotland, Catalonia, Bavaria, Sicily and others. Even in Canada, I wrote about the move of Alberta to secede from Canada. British Columbia is left-wing and environmentalists so they are blocking a pipeline from Alberta through their province. What you see is a trade war within Canada between two provinces. In Germany, we see this sentiment starting to rise in Bavaria which has long retained an underlying sense of nationalism ever since Bavaria was incorporated into the state of Germany in 1871. The old Bavarian palace of the Monarch remains a symbol of Bavarian Nationalism. I remember being in Bavaria when they were celebrating winning the war over the Prussians in the north.

The origins of the rise of Bavarian nationalism as a strong political movement emerged from the Austro-Prussian War and its aftermath. Bavaria had always been both politically and culturally closer to Catholic Austria than Protestant Prussia. We see the similar religious strains in Britain as we do in Germany – Protestants in the North v Catholics in the South. Martin Luther nailed his  Ninety-five Theses to the church door at Wittenberg. The Bavarians shared with the Austrians a common contempt towards the Prussians, leading Bavaria to ally with Austria in the war.

After World War I, in 1923, Bavarian monarchists of the Bavarian People’s Party attempted to seize control of the Bavarian government and declare Bavaria independent of Germany and the Weimar Republic restoring the Bavarian monarchy wherein 1918 the north wanted a Communist Revolution and even asked Russia to come take Germany. This Bavarian separatist coup attempt was then preempted by the then-small Nazi Party which itself attempted to take over the Bavarian government. Bavarian nationalists and the Nazi Party competed for a support base. Finally, the 1932 election saw the Nazi Party won a major victory nationally, yet the Nazis did not surpass the Catholic Bavarian People’s Party in southern Bavaria. The Nazis won only the Protestant areas of northern Bavaria. The underlying resentment remains deep in the heart of Bavaria.

In 2013, the Bavaria Party still won 2.1% of the total vote in state elections so they have not faded away. Top officials in the Bavarian sister party of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives have warned the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) that failure to stick to agreements on migrants could cause the collapse of the potential new German government. Once more, we still see the tensions between Bavaria v the North. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) needs the Christian Social Union (CSU) of Bavaria to even rule. The CSU was formerly the most right-wing party in Germany. But its rubber-stamp of Merkel and the open-door policy to refugees cost them dearly. The AfD won 19.17% of the popular vote in the September 24th, 2017 national election. This was the highest level of support in the former West German states.

Here we have a rising new party, Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), which really began in the East and took 12.6% of the national vote. Once again, we see the inner tension between the socialists (SPD) of the North and their quest to forcibly impose their will upon the South. This is the tension of centuries that goes back to the Prussian v Bavaria confrontations that began in religion.

The left will make a major stand to seize control globally. They will be VERY OPPRESSIVE and this is what will end up destroying the West as we see the economic epic center move to Asia with China becoming the dominant financial capital of the world.

 

World economic growth (GDP) peaked in 1973.  We are looking for the final low to form during 2035.8. The next low will be in 2025 and this will be a Cycle Inversion from a high producing a low. However, you can easily see from this chart of world GDP, socialism is dying. The Pension Crisis will be a major event and the failure of that system will spark not just civil unrest, but the left assaulting the right. The left will look to plunder the wealth of the right and justify it in their minds as they are entitled to this because the right got rich by exploiting the left. This may become excessive between 2029 and 2032.

When Rome turned against the producers under Maximinus, this is what really began to destroy the Roman Empire. Informants were rewarded to turn in anyone with assets they believed was hoarding wealth. They turned everyone against everyone else and that broke the bonds of civilization. Even after Maximinus was killed by his own troops and his head was sent to the Roman Senate, capital investment NEVER returned. The producers began to invest less and continued to hoard more. Confidence was simply lost and people did not trust one another anymore.

This is simply how human nature responds given the same set of circumstances. The more the left seeks to raise taxes and punish the producers, the greater the producers will hoard and not invest and we will see a continued decline in economic growth rates. We can see that we really cannot get world GDP above the 3% level. The decline post-2007 has been profound and 10 years of Quantitative Easing has only caused wealth to contract. Negative interest rates sparked more hoarding of cash even among the middle class.

Draghi is holding on for dear life. He has no prayer in hell to restore the economy of Europe. All he has done is kept the governments on life-support. When they cannot sell their bonds, they will raise taxes drastically to try to stay afloat. This is how history repeats. The same circumstances will emerge, but like a Shakespeare play, it can be acted out over the centuries with the only change being the actors.

 

Mar 11 2018

Two Free Speech Activists Released After 72 Hour Detention By British Authorities for “Incorrect Thoughts”…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on March 11, 2018 by

I was waiting to see where this story went, and to hear first-hand from the two people arrested and detained in British prison for daring to want to interview Tommy Robinson, before coming to a conclusion.  In essence two people were stopped, arrested and detained in U.K. prison for having incorrect thoughts as defined by the British government.

The story was such an Orwellian outline; my initial skepticism told me there had to be more to these second and third-hand accounts.  Alas, unfortunately the facts are as disturbing as initially outlined.

Austrian political activist Martin Sellner belongs to a group called Génération Identitaire, a national political group who advocate for national identity.  Mr. Sellner’s girlfriend is an American author and ‘YouTuber’ named Brittany Pettibone.  They were stopped from entering England by British authorities because they were going to interview a British nationalist called Tommy Robinson.

Being stopped from being allowed to interview Tommy Robinson, a person who has not committed any crime and is in all other aspects a free citizen, is bad enough;  however, what is exponentially worse is that U.K. authorities forcibly separated Mr. Sellner and Ms. Pettibone and imprisoned them – while admitting their incarceration was entirely because they were going to speak to someone.

Think about that.

Martin & I were denied entry to the U.K. & held in a detention facility because 1.) I intended to interview “far right leader”, Tommy Robinson. 2.) Because Martin intended to give a speech at Speaker’s Corner which they alleged would “incite tensions between local communities”.

This is political discrimination, plain and simple. @Martin_Sellner and I will release a detailed video statement as soon as possible.

Thank you so much to everyone who helped bring attention to this issue. It’s an absolute disgrace for the U.K. We cannot allow such a precedent to be set in the U.K. or any Western country for that matter.

Lastly, to the U.K. Border Force, I’ll be meeting with “far right leader”, Tommy Robinson, for an interview in Vienna this evening. While you can ban political dissidents from entering/speaking in your country, you can NEVER ban our ideas.  (Ms. Brittany Pettibone via Twitter)

 

Mar 7 2018

Paradoxes of the Sexual Revolution


As part of CCA III: The Sixties, Mary Eberstadt, author of An Anxious Age: The Post-Protestant Ethic And The Spirit of America, gives a lecture at Hillsdale College on the Sexual Revolution.