The yield curve has been inverted for the last month. An inverted yield curve occurs when long-term government debt yields fall below rates on short-term notes and bills. For stock market investors, an inverted yield curve is typically a sign that equities could peak before an economic recession will follow. It also can be a precursor to a bear market in stocks, where equities fall 20% or more from highs which is the typical forecast. Some have pointed to the escalating China trade war. Investors, the claim, are worried that the China trade war and U.S. tariffs will slow global economic growth.
The 10-year Treasury note yield fell to 2.24% in early trading on May 29. Yields on three-month Treasury bills rose to 2.35%, well above the 10-year rate. The 10-year Treasury note fell below 2% on June 25 following the release of weaker-than-expected consumer confidence data. The three-month note traded at 2.13.%. Ten-year rates stood at 2.69% at the start of 2019. On June 4, 10-year Treasury notes slipped to 2.1 in midday trading, its lowest level in 20 months.
But much the real trend driving the inverted yield curve is capital inflows seeking long-term yields. Much of the capital has moved in from Europe. In addition, the amount of money in fixed-income exchange-traded funds passed $1 trillion last month, an ascendance that has reshaped the market in which countries and companies raise money to pay their bills. This has also altered the yield-curve. These forces have changed the dynamics of the marketplace and the traditional inverted yield curve does not necessarily mean what it once did and more than central banks use to be in control of the economy or money supply.
The Fourth of July Celebration continues today as President Donald Trump participates in a Salute to America at the Lincoln Memorial. Approximate time 6:30pm – 7:30pm EST
President Trump honors America’s armed forces with music, military demonstrations, flyovers and much more. Participants will include the Old Guard Fife and Drum Corps, the U.S. Army Band (“Pershing’s Own”), the Armed Forces Chorus, the United States Marine Corps Silent Drill Team, and many others.
RSBN Livestream Link – Fox10 Livestream Link – White House Livestream Link
Capitol Concert – 8 p.m. – 9:30 p.m., West Lawn of the U.S. Capitol: This all-star salute to America’s 243rd birthday with performances by Grammy Award-winning music legend Carole King, multi-platinum recording artist Vanessa Williams, Grammy Award-winning singer-songwriter Colbie Caillat, the National Symphony Orchestra, and a special appearance by the Sesame Street Muppets!
Fireworks Display – 9:07 p.m., National Mall & Neighboring Parks: Independence Day culminates with a spectacular fireworks display launched from West Potomac Park and behind the Lincoln Memorial which will be visible from many locations throughout D.C. and Northern Virginia.
Back in 2015 I explained why CTH would support Donald J Trump, and what the statement: “Make America Great Again”, really meant from my perspective. Not only has Donald Trump been a President true to his word, he has far exceeded our expectations.
America, our America, is greatest -most blessed- nation on the face of the earth; and every person within her borders is lucky. I make no apologies for my patriotism and neither does United States President, Donald J Trump. American independence is a swagger:
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President Trump proudly says: “We will Make America Great Again”, and when I hear that, I hear someone who gives a damn about America. Actually, physically, purposefully and intently ‘gives-a-damn’ without the hint of apology for it. And that is buckets more valuable to me than a perfected highly-rehearsed set of 30 second sound bites and think-tank policy.
You see, from my perspective any average hard-working American could eat every one of DC’s political elites’ lunches, all of them; and if they want to go down the intellectual superiority path… well, where it really matters, intellectualism is useless.
Because they lost the award, the Japanese team spent six months studying FPL and later published a 1,000 page dissertation essentially saying FPL “wasn’t really good, they were just lucky”….. FPL field leadership laughed, took out markers and wrote on the back of their hard hats: “WE’RE NOT GOOD, WE’RE RUCKY”….
We are a nation that knows how to get shit done.
That’s our America.
Legion d’Honneur or not, that’s us. That’s just how we roll.
Lady Liberty can stroll along the Champs-Elysées with a swagger befitting Mae West because without her arrival they’d be speaking German in the Louvre. Yet for the better part of the past decade a group of intellectual something-or-others have been teaching an insufferable narrative that it’s better to be sitting around a campfire eating sustainable algae cakes and picking parasites off each other.
Enough.
When I hear Donald Trump say “Let’s Make America Great Again”, I also hear the familiar echo “cowboy up” people.
It’s high time we stop being embarrassed about our exceptional nature, and start being proud of it again. Because when it matters most, when it really counts, when it’s really needed, there’s a whole bunch of people all around this world of ours that are mighty happy when swagger walks in to solve their problems.
Yeah, “let’s make America great again”. Swagger on !
Happy Independence Day !!
Justin Amash, aka “Justin China”, chooses the Fourth of July to announce his political departure from the Republican party. No big surprise here; and choosing the Washington Post as the venue for his proclamation is a cherry atop his insufferable nonsense.
Justin China is specifically at risk from the ‘America First’ trade and economic policy of President Donald Trump. [Detailed Here] With extensive family financial holdings dependent on Chinese manufacturing there is a specific level of transparent self interest.
Additionally, as President Trump noted in his response, Justin was likely to lose a republican primary challenge from within his district that was going to see him removed from office. His attempt to re-position his political defense while decrying the “partisanship of politics” is the height of hypocrisy.
Good riddance.
Christine Lagarde will replace Mario Draghi come the end of his term. Of course, the IMF has not been entirely supportive of Draghi’s policies. But she is predominantly a lawyer and does not have the experience in how markets function (reliable internal sources). She has no idea of what she is walking into. The ECB cannot raise interest rates without blowing up the budgets in the EU and there is no way to stop Quantitative Easing as well. With the ECB owning about 40% of the debt right now of member states, it has to keep rolling that or the free market will extract its pound of flesh with higher rates.
Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen was chosen for the commission presidency. Also based upon reliable inside sources, she is very anti-Russia and believes that war is justified. She seems to be a puppet for the neocons and is reported to be not a dynamic or independent thinker.
QUESTION: You said the “crash is in the debt markets”. Can you please explain how that will evolve?
Liz M.
ANSWER: Once upon a time before 1971, there used to be a difference between debt and cash. Government bonds were not acceptable for collateral. You could not borrow against them. You had to liquidate them. This is why they once believed that it was LESS INFLATIONARY to borrow than print. Today, you can buy TBills and post them as collateral to trade futures contracts.
When paper money was beginning during the American Civil War, the government issued compound interest currency. In reality, this was merely currency that paid interest. Therefore, they were a hybrid where they were actually bonds that circulated as if they were a currency. We have returned to that whereby TBills are a street name and are good collateral so they have become the equivalent of bearer bonds that merely serve the purpose of currency.
After DOJ lawyers representing the Commerce Department informed the court and all parties the 2020 Census was being printed yesterday without the citizenship question, President Trump sent out a tweet today seeming to contradict the announcement by DOJ lawyers:
After reviewing the tweet from President Trump, the Maryland District court called an emergency telephonic hearing. Here is the transcript [Cloud pdf – Scribd pdf]:
On June 22nd, 2019, President Trump agreed to postpone any deportation enforcement after a call with Speaker Nancy Pelosi:
Two weeks from June 22nd, would be July 8th, 2019.
However, a review of Nancy Pelosi’s congressional calendar reflects Pelosi’s House has been out of session since June 28th, and does not return until July 9th.
This schedule and deadline is exactly why House Democrats are pulling border stunts and urgently pushing media narratives in the headlines. Pelosi had no intention of fixing the legislative issues; instead, she used the time-delay to create maximum political position for herself, democrats in congress and their media allies.
…..So it does not come as a surprise to see this series of tweets today from President Trump:
WHITE HOUSE – Yesterday, a single, unelected district judge in Seattle issued an injunction that prevents the government from ensuring the detention of those aliens who cross the border unlawfully until the completion of their immigration court proceedings.
The decision ignores an express statutory prohibition on granting class-wide injunctive relief against enforcement of the immigration laws and also holds unconstitutional a statute passed by bipartisan majorities in Congress during the Clinton administration that specifically prohibits the release of certain immigrants on bond.
The district court’s injunction is at war with the rule of law. The decision only incentivizes smugglers and traffickers, which will lead to the further overwhelming of our immigration system by illegal aliens.
No single district judge has legitimate authority to impose his or her open borders views on the country. We must restore our democracy and ensure Americans have the voice to which they are entitled under our Constitution. (link)
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
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