The British Elections – Can Farage Creat a new Party?


Posted Jun 30, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Economist endorses labour

Naturally, The British Economist Magazine endorses Labour as they always do. So, it’s nothing of a surprise there. The polls on BREXIT were all wrong in the UK, for the polling appears to be more of a tool to force people to vote for their anointed politician. Britain’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, surprised many by calling a general election for July 4th. Usually, in London, they celebrate the 4th of July, American Independence, but in the pubs, they would say – good riddance with a laugh and a smile.

The biggest economic risk to Britain is taxing worldwide income that they hide under the label of “Non-dom” which describes a UK resident whose permanent home – or domicile – for tax purposes is outside the UK. They only pay UK tax on the money they earn in the UK. They do not have to pay tax to the UK government on money made elsewhere in the world (unless they pay that money into a UK bank account). Going after the Non-dom makes it sound great; make those quasi-foreigners pay. The problem is they are there because of that status. Tax them on worldwide income and they might as well move to the USA even. They bring wealth to Britain insofar as they spend money in the local economy and pay taxes on property. Our model is already projecting a recession for Britain into 2028, which would certainly add to that economic impact.

Labour is selling itself as the party of “wealth creation” claiming it will improve the living standards for working people. They also insist that they will encourage more investment, but this has been languishing since 2016 in the UK. There are no real hardcore programs to encourage business – just claims of good intentions. They are pitching spending £3.5bn of public “green” investments, including upgrading homes and investing in hydrogen, which is not as bad as the USA or the EU, but this is still a fictional risk.

UK Left Elections 2024

The polls show that his Conservative Party is in serious trouble, and the Labour opposition Labour Party entered the campaign with a commanding lead. People who are upset with the economy generally vote for the opposition, which has been pretty standard throughout history. The Guardian’s national poll tracker has Labour leading the Conservatives by just over 20 points. Vote shares are 41.3% Labour, 21.0% Conservatives, 15.5% for the far-right Reform, 11.1% Liberal Democrats and 5.8% Greens. Recent individual polls have Labour leading the Conservatives by 16 to 24 points. As you can see when we look at Labour and its historical performance, whereas they were at 35% and a 41% gain this time is by no mean a higher high over the era of Tony Blair.

UK Right Elections 2024

The Conservative Party is in deep trouble. Nevertheless, its performance has been strikingly better over the years compared to Labour. Still, looking at the arrays, we have a serious turning point in British politics in 2025 whereas in Labour the next turning point is 2026.

British Election 2024

Interestingly, while the computer does show that Labor should beat Conservative, there is projected resistance for Labor at 35.5%. Believe it or not, we may actually see the Conservative Party folding and being absorbed by Farage’s Reform Party. The last time such a takeover took place was after the 1987 election when the Liberal Party and Social Democratic Party (SDP) merged, forming an electoral alliance. As in this case, a Tory-Reform might unfold because it would be to their mutual advantage. Nigel Farage is anti-war, and this would help tremendously with saving Britain from this insane push for World War III. The problem with this possibility is that while Farage can lead the Reform Party, the Conservative membership would have to become subservient, lacking direction.

Economist_Trump

Political Party takeovers, mergers, and collapses are not rare. In the USA, Thomas Jefferson’s party, the Democratic-Republican Party, defeated the Federalists, who were never heard from again. However, eventually, Jefferson’s party split into what we now have: Democrats vs. Republicans. Even if we look at the Republicans today, essentially, they have undergone a hostile takeover by Donald Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) Republicans. Today, Trump’s MAGA takeover of Republican politics is unchallengeable.

The same type of political crisis took place in Canada from 1993 to 2003. At the 1993 election, the Canadian Progressive Conservative Party was a complete disaster, much like the Federalists in Jefferson’s day. They were displaced by the new rise of the Canadian Reform Party, which took 52 seats. Yet, they were finally forced to merge with their adversary’s successor.

Of course, the British Press is attacking Farage because they see him as a threat. They call him far-right, yet he is against war. The British Press puts out the propaganda that Putin attacked Ukraine “unprovoked,” for they seem to want to wash their hands in the blood of their own people. Our computer shows that Farage and the Conservatives have a shot at merging to form a new government and a new party.

Round #1 of French Elections Today – White House Concerned Macron’s Call for Snap Election Will Backfire


Posted originally on the CTH on June 30, 2024 | Sundance 

French voters will go to the polls today for the first round of a national election. Voters will be choosing 577 members of the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, in two rounds. The first round is today, the second round narrowed to the top vote receivers will be on July 7.

This snap election was called by President Emmanuel Macron after his ruling Renaissance party was crushed in the June 9th elections for the European Parliament. The opposition party in France, nationalists led mostly by Marine Le Pen, won resounding victories in the EU election.

President Macron took a gamble to immediately call for a French snap election; the intention was to prove the “far-right” did not have much support. However, that gamble might backfire as polls show the French National Assembly could very easily flip.

Politico reports the Biden White House is very concerned that Macron might lose his ability to protect the interests of American leftists. The Clinton-Obama-Clinton operation (Charles Rivkin project) has been manipulating French politics for a long time, and the multinational corporations who use France and Germany are a little concerned. USA interests in France, which could very well extend to USA interests in Ukraine, are at stake in this risky gamble by President Macron.

WASHINGTON – […] The Biden team has been consoling itself by pointing out that Macron still has three years left on his term and that the French president wields significant power over foreign policy, which could keep some stability in U.S.-French relations. But National Rally leader Marine Le Pen indicated this week that her party may seek budgetary and other means to tie Macron’s hands on the global front.

Either way, there’s no question Macron would be a diminished figure, even if the far right gets only enough seats to have a big opposition bloc. And his comments in recent days lumping together France’s far left with the far right could leave him even more isolated for the final three years of his term.

“It’s hard to see Macron’s party being able to build coalitions, pass laws and find compromises in a way that it has in the past two years,” said Léonie Allard, a visiting fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.

The French election is not the Biden team’s top concern right now, especially given the fallout from his debate performance, not to mention the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. But the White House is still keenly awaiting the French results, said one of the administration officials. All were granted anonymity to be candid.

The impact of the French vote could be huge, if not necessarily immediately so, former U.S. officials and other observers said. (read more)

Macron is a strangle little man.

In order to get more support from Biden earlier, Macron dressed like the scruffy UPS driver from Ukraine.

Brat: Nobel Laureates Expose Their Political Bias In Statement On Economy


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: June 26, 2024 at 08:20 pm EST

Japan – China – US Debt


Posted Jun 26, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Japan remains the largest holder of the US as of May 2024, holding $1.186 trillion in Treasury securities and 14.7% of all foreign-owned US debt. China has been selling off its holdings in an urgent effort to distance itself from the US, but is currently the second-largest holder of US debt, carrying about $767.4 billion as of March 2024. I largely speak about China’s debt holdings because they were the top buyer of US debt before the political landscape changed.

Within a mere four years, China sold off 30% of its holdings or over $250 billion in US debt. This assisted the yuan in general as China was able to use the exchange rate to buy yuan when the currency depreciated. China seemed to be assisting Trump years ago in lowering the dollar to ease trade frictions. That is no longer the case here as the United States enacted economic warfare against Russia, pushing it off SWIFT, confiscating private assets, and implementing countless sanctions. The United States did all of this to Russia without officially being at war. Who is to say the same would not happen to China under the excuse of Taiwan?

Negative interest rates were a huge mistake for Japan. Unlike China, Japan aims to strengthen ties with the US. The nation drastically increased its holdings of US debt in 2023. US bonds seem safter than the low-yield returns provided domestically in Japan. Funds are moving out of Japan and into the US. They see US debt as relatively safe as they have a strong alliance with the US and the yield are simply higher.

The advice I used to provide to Japan to help reduce the trade friction was to buy gold in New York and sell it in London. The trade numbers could care less about the product actually being exported. It will reduce the trade deficit and make US exports appear to rise. It is just an accounting ploy. Likewise, the booming exports of China were being manipulated by Chinese companies borrowing dollars in Hong Kong and then bringing that money into China and collecting three times that cost in interest. Headlines are always made on the numbers without understanding the accounting.

I received the question of why I speak about China’s purchases and not Japan’s. Again, I speak primarily of China’s offloading of US debt because that is a larger issue. China has not slowed its pace of offloading US Treasuries and this becomes a problem as the debt crisis will come to a head when there is simply no one willing or able to buy US government debt. The Fed desperately needed China’s participation as its plan was to roll over its debts perpetually. They simply cannot pay off $34+ trillion and counting. Japan and the UK cannot compensate for the loss of Chinese purchases.

The 10 Bn Euro Paris Olympics Disaster


Posted originally on Jun 25, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

 


The French are outraged by the amount of money their government has spent on the 2024 Paris Olympics. The government has already spent 9 billion euros on the games, but costs continue to grow daily, and it is now estimated that it will cost France at least 10 billion euros to host the games. There have been countless mishaps when building arenas that have multiplied costs. Parisians know that their city cannot hold the estimated 15 million visitors. Macron believes he is royalty, and hosting the Olympics has always been about boasting rights as it never results in a profit for the hosting country.

Emmanuel Macron had the audacity to announce that open water games would be held in the Seine River, which is brown, unsanitary, and completely contaminated by sewage. Macron said that he and the mayor of Paris would take a swim in the Seine on June 23 to show the world that it is not a floating water of waste. Creative protestors, the French decided to show their disgust by collectively pooping in the river on the day the president was set to swim. Websites were constructed to tell people in neighboring cities precisely when to poop in the river so that it would reach Macron in time for his swim. The river was still utterly polluted on June 23, and Macron conveniently announced that he would delay his swim until after the July election.

There is no plan B for hosting the outdoor swimming events and this puts the world’s top athletes at risk as entering those waters is a complete health hazard. There have been countless failures so far and the budget for these games is outrageous. The government spent 188 million euros building the new Olympic Aquatics Centre in the Saint-Denis neighborhood of Paris when the budget was only 70 million euros. The most appalling aspect is that even after spending far beyond the budget, there was a miscalculation in building the venue and it is too small to host most of the swimming events. This has not prevented politicians from using the wasted tax money as a photo opportunity.

The initial budget for the Olympics was proposed in 2017, and yes inflationary issues are partly to blame for the obscene faults in the budget. Yet every Olympic committee is raising its costs. The Organizing Committee for the Olympic Games, for example said they need to raise costs by at least 10% for the Olympic Village and security.

The final cost of the Olympic games will not be known until 2025. It is simply propaganda to believe that the Olympic games will benefit the people of France in any way, as the costs involved will exceed revenue. Macron, per usual, is only interested in promoting his own image and legacy and has no regard for the welfare of his own people.

One Killed, One Seriously Injured – Hungarian President Viktor Orban Motorcade Crash in Germany


Posted originally on the CTH on June 25, 2024 | Sundance

Hungarian President Viktor Orban is not liked by NATO and Western leaders for his opposition to the war in Ukraine. Hungary just took over as rotating lead of presidency of the EU. Germany is the largest nation in the EU and vehemently opposed to the Orban peace initiative.

President Orban was traveling to the airport in Germany, when suddenly a car made an unexpected turn into his motorcade. One motorcycle officer was killed, another seriously injured. Viktor Orban is unharmed. Samantha Power and William Burns shout, “VERDAMMT!

GERMANY – […] The crash took place at around 11.15am in the district of Degerloch in Stuttgart, Germany, when the Hungarian leader was being escorted to the airport.

[…] The Stuttgart traffic police motorcycle squad were escorting the Hungarian president to Stuttgart Airport on Löffelstrasse.

However, a woman, 69, driving a BMW reportedly drove through an intersection that had been closed off by the police for Orban’s convoy at Albplatz.

She is understood to have turned left at the Rubensstrasse intersection and hit the motorcycle of a 61-year-old male officer who was accompanying Orban’s car.

Due to the force of the impact, the police vehicle was thrown onto the motorcycle of a 27-year-old colleague who had used his motor to block the intersection for traffic.

Both police officers were seriously injured in the collision and were rushed to hospital, reports Bild.

But despite the best efforts of paramedics, the 61-year-old cop died of his injuries shortly afterwards.

The public prosecutor’s office and the Stuttgart police announced the horror collision in a statement. (link)

Suspicious Cat remains, well, suspicious.

WarRoom Battleground: The Lies Of Think Tanks, Pentagon, And The Deep State-6/21/2024


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: June 23, 2024 at 08:30 pm EST

Canada’s Population Explodes Surpassing 41 Million


Posted originally on Jun 24, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Canada’s population has surpassed 41 million, but it is not due to new births. Statistics Canada declared that the population rose 0.6% or 242,673 people since last quarter, standing at 41,012.563 as of April 2024. The nation rose by 1.27 from 2022 to 2023 or a 3.2%. . Nearly all population growth (99.3%; 240,955 people) were solely attributed to migrants arriving in Canada.

“In 2023, the vast majority (97.6%) of Canada’s population growth came from international migration (both permanent and temporary immigration) and the remaining portion (2.4%) came from natural increase,” StatCan said in a statement. “This was the second straight year that temporary immigration drove population growth and the third year in a row with a net increase of NPRs (non-permanent residents),” it said. The number of new arrivals is increasing in 2024 at a rapid pace, far too rapid for the economy to maintain.

Now, government agencies claim that Canada’s population requires “temporary immigration” for labor and the population has grown by 100,000 migrants every quarter since Q3 2021. Canada’s unemployment rate rose in April to 6.1% from 6.1% in March, with the rate at only 5.3% in April 2023. The migrants are not filling in-demand labor roles. As with the US and every western country that permitted open borders, these people are living off of the tax payers and not producing anything. Trudeau totes that skilled labor is needed throughout Canada but the people coming in are not filling those roles either.

Trudeau has permitted an influx of migrants throughout the past six years at a pace that has only accelerated. Every recent poll has found that Canadians are concerned about the record number of new arrivals. The government has stated it would begin to cap immigration but that only applies to those entering legally.

Sentiment toward immigration has turned sour. Canadians are worried about inflation and the housing crisis. A Leger poll learned that 75% of Canadians felt that immigration was fueling the housing crisis. The Association for Canadian Studies and the Metropolis Institute surveyed Canadians in January 2023 and 21% reported that there were too many migrants. They conducted the same poll a year later and the number of concerned legal residents more than doubled to 50%. An Abacus Data survey found that 67% of Canadians believed the rate of immigration was far too high. Trudeau’s popularity is declining as Canadian society and culture begin to shift. The US is not the only country relying on an influx of immigrants and war to alter elections.

Sunday Talks – Former CIA Chief Who Constructed Both Trump-Russia Narrative and Russian Biden Laptop Narrative, Says Terrorist Attack Imminent


Posted originally on the CTH on June 23, 2024 | Sundance 

Mike Morell was the Deputy CIA Director when the Benghazi attack happened under Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. {GO DEEP} Clinton and CIA Director Leon Panetta used Qatar to organize the sale of shoulder fired missiles to al-Qaeda in Libya.  At the time of the Benghazi attack Ambassador Chris Stephens was working with the CIA in Eastern Libya trying to buy-back the missiles.

General David Petraeus became CIA Director shortly before the 9-11-12 Benghazi attack (Panetta moved to Defense Secretary) and had no risk from the previous missile sales as they took place before his tenure.  This made Petraeus a risk.

After Benghazi, the Intelligence Community, supported by Mike Morell, quickly organized a removal operation to get rid of Petraeus using the blackmail they held over him from CBS correspondent Paula Broadwell.

Petraeus was threatened and eventually removed, Mike Morell took his place as Acting CIA Director to protect the CIA, Hillary Clinton, Leon Panetta and the larger Obama administration, from the aftermath of the Benghazi mess.

After the cleanup operation was successful, Morell then went to work for Hillary Clinton and CBS.   Morell is a deeply professional liar.  He knows I watch him.

When working for Hillary Clinton in August of 2016, Mike Morell published the first outline of the Trump-Russia collusion conspiracy in the New York Times.  It was all a lie; we all know it – no one ever held him to account.

Four years later, in the 2020 presidential election cycle Mike Morell did it again; this time organizing the 51 intelligence officers to claim the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation.  Morell led this effort with the State Dept and CIA. Again, it was all a lie; we all know it – no one ever held him to account, and Mike Morell remains working for CBS to this day.

2024 is another presidential election year.  The problem for the Intelligence Community (IC), is their prior lies have caught up with them.  They cannot lie Biden back into office.  The IC needs something else, something more severe.  Something more dramatic.  Mike Morell is now saying a terrorist attack is about to happen on USA soil.  WATCH:

[TRANSCRIPT] – MARGARET BRENNAN: We’re joined now by former CIA Deputy Director, Mike Morell. He’s also our CBS News senior national security contributor. Good to have you here.

MIKE MORELL: Good to be here, Margaret.

MARGARET BRENNAN: You just had that Foreign Affairs article that got all this attention, “The Terrorism Warning Lights are Blinking Red Again.” You compare the moment we are in now to what happened in the lead up to 9/11. And I want to play something FBI director Chris Wray said earlier this month.

[START SOUND ON TAPE]

FBI DIRECTOR CHRISTOPHER WRAY: Our most immediate concern has been that individuals or small groups will draw a twisted inspiration from the events in the Middle East to carry out attacks here at home. But now, on top of that, increasingly concerning is the potential for a coordinated attack here in the homeland, not unlike the ISIS-K attack we saw at the Russia concert hall back in March.

[START END ON TAPE]

MARGARET BRENNAN: That’s chilling. The White House says the president is briefed regularly on threats. If that is true, do you think he’s doing enough?

MIKE MORELL: Hard for me to say whether he’s doing enough because a lot of what needs to be done we wouldn’t see publicly. What I would say is, I ran into a lot of current- former intelligence- current intelligence officers and current policymakers. After we published the article, the response was almost universal. And we’re glad you wrote this. It’s really important. I read that as maybe there’s a lack of sense of- of a sense of urgency here. And that’s really important.

MARGARET BRENNAN : A lack of sense of urgency among members of the public? Or the government?

MIKE MORELL: The administration. Yeah. And Congress, quite frankly. There needs to be a sense of urgency about this. And I think the American public needs to understand what the threat is. That’s why we called for a public congressional hearing just on the terrorist threats to the homeland. Right, not a hearing on threats broadly, but threats to the homeland. And then we need to hear what the administration is doing about this in a broad sense, right. Not the details, but in a broad sense.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, I asked the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, Republican Mike Turner, about exactly your proposal, and he- he really kind of dismissed it. He said, Oh, we’ve covered that.

(CROSSTALK)

MIKE MORELL: He said- we already covered that. They haven’t.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Right, he did call for the administration to declassify information. Our colleague, Sam Vinograd who ran vetting at the border for DHS, said basically that the information that feeds those vetting lists, the watch lists, is dependent on how much good intelligence is collected, and that has been under-resourced. Do you agree with that?

MIKE MORELL: I- I agree with that 100%. We’ve shifted resources from the counterterrorism community to the China community. Now, that’s understandable to some degree, it’s been significant. So I think there’s a cost to the intelligence we’re collecting. The vetting system beyond not having the information- the vetting system does not provide all of the information that the government has. There was just a DHS inspector general report that outlined all the problems with the vetting system. So it’s lack of information and it is the system itself.

MARGARET BRENNAN: That- and we have it on a graphic, the report said Customs and Border Protection could not access all federal data necessary to enable complete screening and vetting of non-citizens seeking admission into the United States. This is the government saying we can’t vet everyone properly.

MIKE MORELL: Right. And Customs and Border doesn’t have the technology, right? To even connect. There are all sorts of issues here that need to be resolved.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Mike Morell, stay with us. I have to take a break but there’s much more I want to talk to you about.

[COMMERCIAL BREAK]

MARGARET BRENNAN: Welcome back to Face The Nation. We return now to our conversation with CBS News senior national security contributor, Mike Morell. Mike, I want to ask you about some video that CBS broadcasted earlier this week, 60 Minutes obtained it. It’s Saudi national Omar al-Bayoumi walking around the US Capitol back in 1999. We’re seeing that video now. It was shot within 90 days of the time when senior al Qaeda planners were deciding on 9/11 targets according to the FBI. At the time you were at the CIA. We know now the FBI identified this man, al-Bayoumi, as an intelligence operative with close ties to two of the 9/11 hijackers. But in that 9/11 commission report it said there was no credible evidence that he was a violent extremist or aided extremists. Now that you have seen this video, what do you think it reveals?

MIKE MORELL: No doubt in my mind, that it is a casing video, that it is a casing video for some sort of terrorist attack. Number one. Number two, pretty clear to me that al-Bayoumi was- was either working for al Qaeda, or was Al Qaeda. Did he know about the 9/11 attacks? Probably not. Did he know that the two individuals he was interacting with were 9/11 hijackers? Probably not. But- but no doubt in my mind that al Qaeda tasked him to do this casing video. The video is chilling. It’s chilling in terms of what he was- what he was videotaping, his narration over the top of it which- which is part what tells you it was a casing video. And his- his- his extremist comments. Let me just give you two examples, Margaret. On- on the casing part. At one point he says I will get over, he’s looking at the Washington Monument, I will get over there and I will report. I will report to you in detail what is there. He’s talking to somebody, right? He’s- and- and he’s talking about a plan–

MARGARET BRENNAN: — Not like a tourist would?

MIKE MORELL: Not like a tourist video. And then in terms of the extremism, he’s- he’s- he’s looking at the Capitol. And he says they say that our kids are demons. However, these are the demons, what he’s looking at.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So the FBI concluded he was not a threat. The 9/11 commission report concluded he was not a threat. You’re saying it’s clear he was Al Qaeda and living under the noses and examination of law enforcement undetected. He’s now living in Saudi Arabia as we speak. That’s pretty- that’s a pretty big oversight by US law enforcement and intelligence. Did the CIA know about this video?

MIKE MORELL: We did not. You know, I’m 99.9% confident that we did not have this video. I was the President’s briefer at the time. If somebody had shown me this video, I would have shown it to the President.

MARGARET BRENNAN: It was, as I understand it, UK officials- UK intelligence that scooped up this video?

MIKE MORELL: Yes, just so- so- so when he left the United States, he went to the UK. And after- after 9/11, the FBI discovered that he had signed- helped- helped- helped the two 9/11 hijackers get their first apartment. He- and the FBI learned that they learned that he was in the UK. So they go to the UK Government and they say- they share all this information. The British government arrests him, detains him, interrogates him, gets all this material. They say they provided it back to the FBI.

MARGARET BRENNAN: And it just stayed at the FBI.

MIKE MORELL: It looks- it looks that way.

MARGARET BRENNAN: A lot more to come on this including on 60 Minutes in the fall. Thank you so much for your analysis Mike Morell. We’ll be right back.

[END TRANSCRIPT]

Hearts of Oak: The Week According to… Leilani Dowding


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: June 22, 2024 at 09:00 pm EST