Greenspan Sees Inflation or Stagflation? There is a Difference!


greenspan-bloomberg

QUESTION #1: Marty, Greenspan reads you without a doubt. You warned back in 2012 that we have to be concerned about the USA moving into stagflation with deflation in Europe and Japan. He said the same on Bloomberg. He also said the crisis is the aging population, lower birthrate, and that will result in higher costs without economic expansion. That is everything you said two years ago.

QUESTION #2: Marty,

Deflation is gripping Europe but Greenspan warns of inflation in the USA.
Is he right? What are your thoughts?
3FACESn of Inflation

ANSWER: Inflation, like deflation, is multifaceted. There is no single dimension for it is not black and white. Most of the debate concerning inflation is fixated upon this basic expectation assuming that increasing money supply must be inflationary. That is just flat outright WRONG! There are times we have Currency Inflation since everything has a true international value. If a currency declines, assets will generally rise in proportion to the decline as long as there is no political risk as to the collapse of government or military invasion.

brexit-currency-inflation-1

It is astonishing to me how people who claim they are analysts, economists, or political scientists, were all seriously wrong about BREXIT. Not that it won at the polls, but the aftermath. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse are just the top three banks who were all WRONG on their forecasts predicting of a post-referendum recession as trade deficit narrows. None of them understand capital flows. They have never spent a dime to even do historical research. They are only interested is a quick buck and nothing more. To them, the economy is control by the state so bribe them to get what you want to see is generally their motto.
ferrari-328Note that the day of BREXIT, yes the currency collapsed because of their forecasts. But the stock market rose that day. It did not collapse. This is CURRENCY INFLATION and these people are clueless when it comes to understanding real international capital flows. I have told the story before that I bought a 328 Ferrari in London for about £30,000 when the pound fell to $1.03. The same car in dollars was selling for about $50,000. The pound had been over $2 when Ferrari priced what they would sell that car for to Brits. Since the pound fell so hard, the Italians raised the price to £45,000. Then the pound rallied back to almost $2. I drove the car in London for about two years and then sold it used for about $50,000. This created the false assumption that a Ferrari was a great investment and people began buying and storing them. It was just the currency — not the car. The same thing took place with property in London. Americans rushed in buying everything.

british_airways_concordeI also ran to British Airways and asked how many open tickets they would sell me for the Concorde. They looked at me like some sort of dodgy person and could figure out why I would do such a thing. They came back and said 25. I said great. A round trip was £2,000. Back when the Concorde began, it was about a $5,000 ticket when a first class ticket was about $3,000. So the Concorde was overpriced and mostly empty. With the drop in the pound to par, it was now cheaper than a first class ticket. I bought as many as they would sell me. I got on the Concorde and suddenly it was full with Americans all saying what a deal.

CURRENCY INFLATION is not created by normal supply and demand conditions they teach you in school. Perhaps if you were not an international traveler as I have been, you would never experience it. I use to have an American Express card from every office we had around the world. I would pay in the currency of my choice depending upon the market. Today, American Express will only issue you a credit card where you are domiciled.

euro-jumpASSET INFLATION is different again. This unfolds much like negative interest rates and it is the same mechanism that is creating it. This is when money fears government, banks, or whatever, and it seeks to get off the grid. It will run into property, stocks, gold, art, collectibles, or antique cars. People are buying bonds at negative yields because they are parking money. In Europe, they have been rushing into Germany assuming if the euro breaks, they will get Deutsche marks. However, what is Deutsche Bank fails and the government has to blink and back-off of this insanity of bail-ins? They will suddenly find their conservative bet on Germany will turn into a blood-bath.

supply-demandThe traditional view of inflation is DEMAND INFLATION where a shortage in supply will result in hire prices. But this assumes demand will not change. The whole theory of creating a monopoly is confined solely to this aspect. A Monopoly is actually impossible for if the assumption is prices can just be raised and people will have not choice.

 

Yes in “Debt is Destroying Everything. Where is Common Sense When We Need it the Most?” published August 19th, 2012 I wrote:

So we have to be concerned about STAGFLATION, rising costs with collapsing economic growth. We are living so far beyond our income that we are completely unconnected to any productive capacity. The debt can no longer be paid off. It is beyond several generations. Charles Dickens wrote in Little Dorrit that “[Credit is a system whereby] a person who can’t pay, gets another person who can’t pay, to guarantee that he can pay.”
Even the demographics are changing. As the older generation exceeds the working population, the Ponzi Scheme government established to pretend they would be there to take care of everyone are collapsing. This is why Obamacare is also collapsing. The youth are not joining the crowd. As the greater proportion of society is no longer productive, GDP declines while costs rise. This is the core of STAGFLATION. So we are not looking at inflation as we know in pre-1981.

Fed has become World Central Bank


Deplorables Unite !


Hillary thinks we are deplorable and it seems that at minimum half the population or more falls into that category.

Trump and his people connected to a 2012 move Les Misérables about the period just before the 1832 Paris upraising and the miserable life led by the people after Napoleon was deposed and the monarchy restored in France in 1815.  Masterfully connected the French rebellion of the period to the American rebellion of today again the Globalists. The resulting U-Tube video here shows the creativity of trump and his people turning a negative put down from Hillary into a great U-Tube video against her!

“Contingency Plan” Now Called For By Former DNC Chairman- Allows Insertion Of SELECTED Elite Puppet | The Sleuth Journal


Puppet H or puppet X it doesn’t matter the plan is the same!

THE MOST COMPREHENSIVE DOCUMENTARY MOVIE YOU WILL EVER SEE ON AGENDA 21. IT’S HAPPENING NOW.


This isvery  real I have been to these meetings and the goal is to put as many people into mega cities as they can where you will live and work in a very small area and ideally be in walking distance to every thing they say you need.  This will be massive hives of poor people ridden with crime as all hives are and life in them will be hell! Watch the movie and it will scare the C*** out of you once you see the evil of what they are doing! There will be no freedom everything will be controlled by the government! The core of all they talk about like climate change and progressiveism and Keynesian economics is false; and I tell you this after decades of academic and practical study.

DO NOT LET THESE FOOLS TAKE YOU DOWN THIS PATH!

 

Powell Confirms Israel has 200 Nuclear Warheads


Colin Powell

Former Secretary of State Colin Powell’s private emails reveal a lot more than a very questionable Hillary. The leak by hackers has revealed that Powell confirmed that Israel has nuclear weapons and has amassed 200 warheads. Of course, Israel has never confirmed that have any nuclear weapons. The very existence of its weapons has been classified information by both the Israeli and U.S. governments. It is obvious that Washington picks and chooses who they allow to have weapons.

BREXIT – TRUMP – GOLD


BREXIT What Next (2)

QUESTION: Good day Marty,

first and foremost, thank for what you do on a daily basis for us sheeple. Your prolific writing is amazing to me. There are many pundits out there making correlations between the British exit, gold and a trump victory. Namely that the British exit has shown some real gains since it occurred. U.K. economic forecasters at Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley recently cancelled recession forecasts, the Markit/CIPS purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which represents the manufacturing sector in Britain, rose to 53.3 in August from July’s figure of 48.3. A figure above 50 indicates expansion.

What’s happening in the U.K. They say could inspire Trump and the U.S. and many other countries around the world… Trump was an outspoken supporter of Brexit. He was virtually the only significant Western leader who supported it publicly. Trump might be the only politician with the stomach to simply try something new they note from a fiscal and monetary policy perspective. If he wins, the first market shock will be the knowledge that a house cleaning is coming at the Federal Reserve, which includes a new Chairman, so he says. Then the potential threat of trade wars, to a rush to safe haven assets, including gold (like Brexit), not to mention all the Democrats who have always known this was a false economy rushing to safe haven.. Gold.

Wha do you make of this, please comment.

JB

British GDP Growth since 1949

ANSWER: When Ronald Reagan was elected, they said he would start World War III because he was a hawk. All of these forecasts are worthless because they were made based on OPINION and they never bothered to investigate the trend — EVER! We published this chart in favor of BREXIT using the government’s own data. It showed that the UK economy peaked in growth in 1973 and did nothing but decline once it joined the EU.

The vast majority of people who always make these claims ignore a critical aspect. They ignore the simple fact that since 2011, the European debt crisis has seriously reduced world trade growth. The European debt crisis and geopolitical tensions intensified in 2014 moving into the high on our Economic Confidence Model (2015.75). In truth, world trade has come to a screeching crawl over the last few years. In value terms, world merchandise trade growth averaged just 1 percent per year from 2012 to 2014.1, so claims that the UK would suffer dire consequences if it left the EU was a joke.

International trade in commercial services has grown significantly ever since Goldman Sachs controlled the Clinton White House. The services trade has been far less volatile than merchandise trade over the last 20 years. This has been a direct result of the bankers calling the shots. Over the past two decades, world trade services have recorded negative annual growth that was only down 9% during the crash of 2009. However, in 2010, services trade resumed at pre-crisis levels and has maintained its expanding portion of world trade in the face of a decline in real economic growth. In actual dollar terms, global exports of services have fundamentally increased by 5% in 2014 compared with 0.5% for manufactured goods.

Trump will find it very difficult to reverse these trends. What he can do is trim the sails of the bankers. Keep in mind that the London banks were yelling they would leave if BREXIT went through. I would have said, “Goodbye and don’t forget to slam the door on the way out.” The bankers were absolute fools and the forecasts were all politically motivated. They had to revise their dire predictions because, quite frankly, they were completely worthless and part of a propaganda scare tactic.

Britain is far better off out of the EU than in. If Trump wins, the West may be able to survive a bit longer as we make it to 2032. As far as gold is concerned, it is the hedge against government uncertainty. That comes into play when the majority of the people question the viability of government. Naturally, those who are tuned-in already distrust government. However, you cannot judge the world through only your own eyes. That is called bias.

Is the World Political Economy Melting Down?


Meltdown

We entered a private wave during July 1985 after 51.6 years of a public wave that began in 1932. The private sector went nuts when the bankers and foreign governments were conducting massive fraud. The people turned to government and created the public wave that peaked in 1981.35 with the peak in interest rates. By the turning point in 1985, government began attempting to seize and maintain control of the economy to compel it to perform as they desired. That became known as the Plaza Accord, which gave birth to the G5 (now G20). When that occurred, we took the back cover of the Economist Magazine in 1985 every week of that month to announce the return of inflation and shift from deflation during 1981-1985, which ended that private wave and started a new private wave.

The point within the current business cycle wave as defined by the Economic Confidence Model was 2015.75. That was the turning point in confidence within government. We can see that now as 65% of Americans think Hillary is dishonest. That is a greater percentage than any president in history has won from a popular vote.

Hillary most likely has Parkinson’s disease, but she is determined to be the first woman president so to hell with the world or the nation. Our prospects for the future look dim at best.

Troika-Unelected

Then add to this the insanity Europe who is also captured in the grip of unelected people who are running a totalitarian state. The people have no right to even vote to remove any of the Troika. We have lost our independence, our integrity, and our freedom. The world political economy is melting down before our eyes, but these people still seek to brainwash our children and pretend they are fighting for liberty and justice when there is none left. This has become a world that is all about those in power, and we have become the great unwashed.

The Federal Reserve confronts a possibility it never expected: No exit.


That is where it is at that is true; if the leave rates low the pension funds go bust if the raise the interest rates to save the pension funds the government goes brook sadly its one or the other. The FED can not save both!

The Coming Dark Age


dark-age

QUESTION:

Mr. Armstrong,

Thank you for the time you are spending to educate the public about what it really going on. I have followed your work for years, from before you were released from prison. Over the years you have made several comments about directional changes and have alluded to the idea that a crossroads is coming in that we will either enter another Dark Age or we will see the light towards greater liberty and freedom. More recently, you mentioned the year 2032 as a critical year in this regard.

In addition, you have mentioned that Trump winning the election would postpone the inevitable chaos, but that HRC winning would speed it along.

In terms of the distal effects of the November election on 2032, does either Trump or Clinton winning increase the likelihood of entering a Dark Age over something more hopeful? Should we be attempting to kick the can down the road or should we get it over with?

Thanks again for your service.

HA, Ph.D.

obama-change-we-can-believe-in

ANSWER: Hillary is just corrupt and rotten to the core. She represents everything that is wrong with our political economy. Politicians no longer care about the people. Every election promises “change” in some variation. That is admitting something is broken, but it always comes down to the same thing – it’s just about them.

twain-mark-if-voting-made-any-difference-they-would-not-let-us-do-it

Indeed, it was Mark Twain who put it best during the last century: If voting made any difference, they wouldn’t let us do it.” We must understand that this has been an age old battle between the rulers and the people. In Athens where Democracy was born, they constantly fought to seize power back and even made Pericles stand trial. Government has always sought to bribe the people creating a welfare state. The Romans knew that the way top power was to promise everything but give them bread and circuses (sport games) and they could maintain power. It was Decimus Iūnius Iuvenālis, commonly known as Juvenal, who was a Roman poet active in the late 1st and early 2nd century AD that wrote that phrase:

… Already long ago, from when we sold our vote to no man, the People have abdicated our duties; for the People who once upon a time handed out military command, high civil office, legions — everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses

[…] iam pridem, ex quo suffragia nulli / uendimus, effudit curas; nam qui dabat olim / imperium, fasces, legiones, omnia, nunc se / continet atque duas tantum res anxius optat, / panem et circenses. […]

(Juvenal, Satire 10.77–81)

Nothing has changed. Many people can name every person on some sports team but cannot name their political minister, congressman, or whatever lofty title they call themselves. The judge in a courtroom demands to be called “honorable” as do all public servants. They make a mockery of the very word.

athen550We are approaching the grave danger of a Dark Age beginning from the aftermath of 2032. Hopefully, I will be gone by then and will not have to face this horrible event. Yet Dark Ages are reoccurring events throughout history and in all cultures. The Greeks endured their between the Homeric Age that marked the end of the Mycenaean civilization around 1100 BC, to the first signs of the Greek cities (poleis) rising again in the 6th century BC (508–322 BC). It was during the 9th century BC (900-801BC) that we begin to see the rise of great cities outside of Greece including Carthage, which was founded by the Phoenicians.

Japan went through its Dark Age, which also lasted about 600 years and the same impact was endured in Europe with the collapse of Rome in 476AD. Dark Ages seem to come in units of 3 so they are 300 or 600 years. The cause is always political corruption.

Japanese-Debasement 760-958AD

In the case of Japan, each new emperor devalued the money in circulation with a decree that it was worth 10% of his new coins. There was no intrinsic value since they were bronze of iron. This process led people NOT to hoard money. Chinese coins were sought after since they would not be devalued. Eventually, nobody would accept Japanese coins and the ceased to be issued for 600 years. People used Chinese coins or bags of rice.

roman-follis-295-348ad

The Roman Monetary Crisis that saw silver vanish by 268AD, was naturally followed by  an attempt to restore the monetary system. A new bronze coin was introduced in 295AD known as the Follis. Again, one 52 year cycle saw its collapse from over 16 grams to under just 2 grams.

zenonis

By the time you come toward the very end of the Roman Empire, you rarely find any bronze and when you do, it is less than an American penny. Coinage is debased because of the corruption in government. Those who think restoring the gold standard would do anything are wrong. Such monetary reforms appear repeatedly throughout history with little lasting impact. The system as we known it is always doomed to failure simply because we are satisfied as a whole with bread and circuses and let politicians run wild in their greed. Hillary is the example for everyone to see.

I will gather all the accounts and this is on much bucket-list of books to complete. We do have a choice. We can understand what is coming and WHY, and perhaps take that first step out of darkness and move into the light of a realistic political system that ends the bribing of citizens and this eternal battle of political corruption. We need a REAL democracy without career politicians. Only then can we hope to advance as a society.