Best “Recession” Ever – U.S. Housing Starts Eclipse 12-year High…


Housing starts (and permits) have been a long-term key performance indicator for the economic stability and strength of Main Street USA for generations. Across all key metrics, the economics of middle-class America is defined by confidence in housing. A strong housing market reflects worker/purchaser confidence in their economic position.

The U.S. Commerce Department reports today that U.S. housing starts and permits has reached a 12-year-high. [data here] This is a key point because it cuts to the heart of the difference between a thriving Main Street economy and the disconnect surrounding issues with Wall Street (multinational) financial markets.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. homebuilding surged to more than a 12-year high in August as both single- and multi-family housing construction accelerated, suggesting that lower mortgage rates were finally providing a boost to the struggling housing market.

The report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday also showed permits for future home construction rose to levels last seen in 2007. Housing and manufacturing have been the weak spots in the economy, which is now in its 11th year of expansion, the longest in history.

The jump in home-building activity last month added to strong retail sales data in suggesting the economy continues to grow moderately and is probably not flirting with a recession as has been flagged by financial markets. (read more)

Housing lags behind other jumps in retail sales because housing is the biggest financial commitment made by U.S. workers.  A new home purchase, first purchase or upgrade, is the biggest decision for most American workers and families.   Since President Trump took office wages and worker benefits have increased substantially; more than a million people have now moved into the middle-class.

Again, for emphasis, there are two distinct economic metrics that are disconnected and intentionally conflated by Wall Street pundits, financial media and political opportunists therein who speak through the prism of economics.   The Main Street economy is thriving; the Wall Street financial economy -heavily influenced by multinational investment- is not thriving.

The two economic engines (Wall St. -vs- Main St.) were decoupled by corporate political influence, over U.S. economic policy, 30-years ago.  Wall Street is a paper financial market influenced by U.S. multinational interests.  Main Street is a blue-collar market influenced by the internal strength of the U.S. consumer, workers, wages and internal U.S. dynamics.

President Trump’s MAGAnomic policy is structured to the benefit of Main Street.  Real investment by domestic companies providing American jobs taking place inside the U.S.  The results of focusing on America First, generates more domestic jobs, a larger demand for U.S. workers, pressure on higher wages & subsequent increased consumer spending.   Homes and home purchases are an outcome of that internal economic strength.

The global market can, and likely will, retract.  The gains or losses of investment markets are not necessarily attached to Main Street outcomes. Wall Street overseas investments have less value when economic policy directs majority benefit to Main Street.  However, isolated from the external investment issue, the U.S. Main Street economy can simultaneously thrive due to growth internally within the domestic U.S. economy.

Sec. Wilbur Ross

@SecretaryRoss

Fantastic housing numbers! Both starts and permits rose to a 12-year high in August. The housing market needs low rates to keep growing. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/startssa.pdf 

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President Trump Selects Robert O’Brien as National Security Advisor…


Robert C O’Brien (pictured left) is currently the State Department’s special presidential envoy for hostage affairs.  A founding partner of the Los Angeles-based law firm Larson O’Brien.

NYT – Mr. O’Brien served with Mr. Bolton when he was President George W. Bush’s ambassador to the United Nations and has advised Republican candidates like Mitt Romney, Scott Walker and Ted Cruz. In both the Bush and Obama administrations, Mr. O’Brien worked on an initiative to train lawyers and judges in Afghanistan.  (link)

People describe O’Brien as similar to his friend John Bolton without the virulent twitchy trigger finger. In his capacity as special envoy for hostage affairs, O’Brien wrote a letter to Swedish prosecutors urging them to release A$AP Rocky.  According to CBS O’Brien’s work “on Rocky’s case endeared him to Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and one of his top advisers.”

CBS’s Margaret Brennan gives a good outline here:

Government Will Never Accept Responsibility for their Actions


COMMENT:  You were right Martin! Demonetization was one of the worst decisions by the Modi government, the country is now suffering from that…. economy has gone down, but the new govt will not admit it. They believe the Millenials are to blame!

JPM (India)

REPLY: After nearly 40 years of dealing with governments throughout the world, I have yet to hear any government EVER admit blame for causing an event.

I was called in for research on the 1987 Crash as we had clients on the Commission. Not only did we forecast the crash to the day, but we came out on the day of the low and forecast new highs by 1989. The Energy models showed the move was over.

Despite all of that, I stressed that the entire crisis was set in motion by the formation of the G5 and their pronouncement that they “wanted” to see the dollar fall by 40% for trade purposes in 1985. The Brady Commission report went into detail about how the foreign exchange markets impacted the event. However, they would not blame the G5.

When Rubin started the same jawboning about the dollar, I wrote to him warning he would create another crash. They backed off.

Flight from Public to Private


QUESTION: Hi. Martin. I have read your blog for many years and I’m blown away about how much I have learned Question can you help explain how the European stock markets Like the day have risen to over 12000. With European interest rates falling.

SH

ANSWER: Capital is beginning to move already. Europe is closing in and hunting taxes. The chaos of Brexit and punishing Britain rather than addressing the economic problems has really doomed Europe.

As you can see, the peak in the PE ratio took place at the LOW in 2009, not the high. When you enter these periods of uncertainty, interest rates, dividends, and expectations of profits no longer mean anything. The primary objective is to park money in a safe place where you get it back. Banks are questionable with bail-in policies and negative interest rates. Now even gold is being targeted. Where else to go but equities

Stand With Corey….


Corey Lewandowski is exploring a run for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire:

Stand With Corey – Link

Corey R. Lewandowski

@CLewandowski_

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Corey R. Lewandowski

@CLewandowski_

Thank you @realDonaldTrump. No collusion no obstruction — the American people know it, and lll continue to remind them. . https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1174025953468530688 

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

pic.twitter.com/wrEmfGFRHm https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1174017425068576769 

Embedded video

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USMCA Update – Rep. Riggleman Says “Likely” Passage – Rep. Barr says Only if before Oct 21st – Senator Ernst Says “Not Likely”…


This is a topic we have previously discussed.  The current status is unfortunately what CTH previously predicted….  The consequences here are very serious.

Representative Denver Riggleman (R-Va.), a member of the House Financial Services Committee, claims a significant number of House Democrats are ready to vote to approve the USMCA trade deal.  However, Nancy Pelosi is holding back the vote.

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Everyone agrees that passage of the USMCA would provide leverage for the U.S. position in both China and EU trade negotiations.  Representative Andy Barr says despite a likely 300+ vote of support, he believes Pelosi is stalling to block that exact leverage.

Maria Bartiromo

@MariaBartiromo

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As we previously pointed out, the October 21st election in Canada will be an influence.

Justin Trudeau made an agreement with Pelosi to stop the Canadian Parliament from considering ratification. If Trudeau loses the election, his replacement will likely move more quickly to ratify the USMCA, this will be a defeat for Pelosi.  However, if Trudeau wins, he will help keep the pressure off Pelosi by simultaneously stalling ratification in Canada.

This dynamic has yet to play out.

Senator Jodi Ernst, a member of GOPe leadership, appears to be sending the message that USMCA will not pass until after the 2020 presidential election. Ernst is a Decepticon in AG clothing; but generally, the outlook of McConnell, Cornyn, Thune and Ernst are more accurate.

The U.S. multinationals on Wall Street do not want the USMCA to pass because they don’t want President Trump to have leverage that allows him to continue the fight against China and the EU. It is a simple dynamic, USMCA ratification makes the Wall Street prior investments in China worth less.

Here’s Ernst.

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The UniParty Message on USMCA:

The strategy to deal with each of the three primary negative trade elements (China, NAFTA, and the EU) is clear within President Trump’s trade reset.

  • Bilateral deals with ASEAN partner nations and simultaneous crushing tariffs on China deals with one problem.  China’s removal of U.S. wealth and jobs is halted.
  • The construct of the USMCA, and country of origin for source material and strict enforcement mechanisms, deals with the second problem: NAFTA’s fatal flaw.
  • An reciprocal and barrier removing agreement between the U.S. and U.K; which can open a tariff free trade highway between North America and Europe; creates the leverage for Trump (benefit for Johnson) that begins to deal with the EU problem.

In the big picture President Donald Trump has purposefully stalled the process of supply chain globalization and cheap labor evaluation.  Trump is resetting global manufacturing supply chains, with U.S. incentives for relocation.   This is bringing wealth and jobs back into the United States (and North America).

In essence Titan Trump is engaged in a process of: (a) repatriating wealth (trade policy); (b) blocking exfiltration of wealth (main street policy); (c) creating new and modern economic alliances based on reciprocity (bilateral deals); and (d) dismantling the post WWII Marshall plan of global trade and one-way tariffs (de-globalization).

In all of these efforts U.S. multinational corporations, big companies on Wall St, are heavily opposed to President Trump because they have invested in those overseas operations.  Those companies facilitated the loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs.

There is also now a clear alignment between those Wall Street multinationals, and democrats like Nancy Pelosi.   Wall Street’s ability to pay Pelosi and political leadership to protect their multinational interests; in combination with corporate promises of funding to Pelosi’s party; has created the unholy alliance of united interests.

That’s why Nancy Pelosi instructed Justin Trudeau to stall the Canadian ratification of the USMCA.  That’s the motive behind why Pelosi is working to stall, perhaps even eliminate, the USMCA ratification in the House.  This is also why Pelosi reacted so quickly to the framework of a deal between President Trump and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

It is a political strategy and calculation for Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to attempt to sink the U.S. Main Street economy.  Weakening Trump’s China confrontation; blocking the USMCA; and impeding a trade agreement between the U.S. and U.K. are part of that calculation.

This is why we are seeing Wall Street, and the media pundits therein, openly cheering for an economic recession for exactly the same purpose.

The aligned interests of Wall Street, media pundits and Democrats are all contingent upon harming the U.S. economy.  That is how severely ideological modern democrats are.

The democrats are willing to destroy Main Street in order to retain power.

There are trillions at stake.

Nadler’s Lawfare Crew – Corey Lewandowski House Testimony – 1:00pm ET Livestream…


Following a subpoena for testimony, today the House Judiciary Committee, Chaired by Jerry Nadler, is scheduled to hold another made-for-media event with former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski.  However, this hearing will be slightly different.

Following the spring and summer failures by the Judiciary and Intelligence committees, Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff and Jerry Nadler changed the rules.  Instead of questions from congressional representatives, Corey Lewandowski will face questions from a group of lawyers contracted by Pelosi and Nadler.  The corrupt group of former DOJ and FBI staff lawyers -known colloquially as the “Lawfare Alliance”- has provided the lawyers.

The new Lawfare Committee 2.0 fiasco is scheduled to commence at 1:00pm ET.

Judiciary Livestream Link – Fox News Livestream – PBS Livestream Link

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Iran Hits Saudi Arabia: Will Trump Hit Back?


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