Questions from Around the World


Armstrong Economics Blog/Q&A Re-Posted Jan 29, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is euro-digital-electric.jpg

QUESTION #1: Hello Mr Armstrong,
Thank you so much for the heads up regarding the elimination of paper cash. Regarding the US things are clear and so we’ll have to wait and will soon see what happens.
Could you elaborate on the elimination of paper regarding the EU and UK? What is the timeframe? What is the alternative going to be? Is it a good idea and is there any possibility to short the euro to compensate for the losses?
Officially there has been no mention of this elimination at all here in the EU (Netherlands), nor what the alternative might be. I’m sure that initially, the general public will be very surprised to say the least.
Thank you for your endless efforts and helping hand.
SR

ANSWER #1: Biden is moving at light-speed with regard to climate. He is fully implementing everything that Gates & Schwab have been directing. He has been doing so all by executive decrees which I have been against constitutionally because this circumvents everything that Congress is supposed to be there to do. Nothing is ever allowed to be voted on.

That said, Biden will have difficulting when it comes to canceling the dollar. Trudeau in Canada has done so as of January 1st, 2021 but nobody knows that yet. He did that is secret. The problem in Europe is that the ECB moved to negative rates in 2014. They cannot raise rates without blowing up their own balance sheet for they not only have to continue buying member debt, but they also have to keep what they already bought and roll it when it expires. So that is a real problem.

Europe will most likely push ahead with canceling its currency in 2021 because they are desperately trying to force people to end hoarding of cash, but our models are now tracking a serious capital flight from Europe seeking yield and much of that is headed to China to collect 3% on their bonds.

In the UK, Johnson is acting like a dictator. He will most likely follow Europe but perhaps not instantly. But the move toward digital will most likely come there in 2021. Looking at our timing models for volatility, that may be May or July/August. Biden will have a much harder time canceling cash because 70% is outside the USA and Americans have never had their currency canceled.

COMMENT #1: Whatever you write they do. You are just part of their game. Someone needs to shut you up.

REPLY #1: No worries. I’m sure those in power will listen to you.

QUESTION #2: Hey everybody, [JB] here.
I always think I’m writing to Marty personally, but I expect maybe a staff member screens this stuff.
Nonetheless, Marty, as always I love you Brother!!! I love your staff as well.
Hey, I’ve been reading the private blog about food shortages and inflation.
You all know me, I was the kid, in the late 1970s, whose father made him go wait in the gasoline lines (anybody remember gasoline rationing?).
Just in a few days since Ol’ Joe started his dictating, gas has jumped up over 20 cents per gallon.
Will we see gasoline shortages/gas rationing/long lines to get gas?
I’m buying an electric scooter this weekend just in case (ha ha).
God Bless everybody.

JRB

ANSWER #2: Yes I find it interesting how the fundamentals unfold to fulfill the model. This is supposed to be a wave into 2024 with inflation based upon shortages. The main goal of these crazy Climate Change people is to drive the price of energy so high people will not be able to afford it.

COMMENT #2: Thank you for responding to my question in Dutch. Everything has been so corrupt with the government trying to find anyone willing to publish is getting very hard.

REPLY #2: I know. I try to translate messages coming in from many different languages. But I am only one person. Perhaps it is time to let others start to write as well. I cannot cover it all.

COMMENT #3 A tourist got 6 months in JAIL for disobeying “covid” rules!! And others are facing up to a year in jail now.

One would have to be insane to travel/fly anywhere in this new global tyranny!

“A tourist was jailed for six months earlier this week for breaching Barbados’ strict Covid-19 protocols, even though he’d only popped out for a drink. Dean George Scott, 49, from Jamaica admitted leaving quarantine to ‘buy Fanta’ and other snacks after arriving on the holiday island at the beginning of December, when he appeared in court. Chief Magistrate Ian Weekes said the sentence served as a was a ‘clear warning’ to others.”

PG

REPLY #3: I know. My staff is stranded around the world and I cannot even get them in for our Conference in December. I am not sure we will be able to have conferences in the future. They might have to be all virtual. Let’s see.

How Splits Take Shape


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ancient History Re-Posted Jan 29, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong –I just fled California for Idaho, since it is one of the most conservative and fiscally sound states. In your blog, you just stated that if the USA splits, it will again be split into north and south. However, since you are pointing out the burgeoning strength and success of Florida and Texas, I am wondering whether the conservative side will be the south this time instead of the north. Did I move the wrong way?

SC

ANSWER: No. Usually, a split takes place along the same historical lines as in the past. So you see north v south in the USA, Britain, Germany, and Italy just to mention a few. In the USA, the West existed but remained out of the Civil War. So the split maybe California, Oregon, and Washington align with the East and the middle of the country aligns with the deep South.

Democrats to Tear Down the Supreme Court?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Rule of Law Re-Posted Jan 29, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

There is no question that the Democrats feel like they have to change everything. Stacking the Supreme Court was attempted by Roosevelt in 1937 and he lost. I have shown that it really does not matter who appoints the justices. Chief Justice Roberts was appointed by Republicans and he upheld Obamacare. The examples are endless. They refused to take the Texas case and committed the country to absolute sheer chaos and did not uphold Trump simply because he was a Republican. I can find no evidence that any justice will always rule based upon who appointed them.

OWEN-Life Tenure for Federal Judges Raises Issues of Senility, Dementia – ProPublica

That said, Eric Holder has brought up three main issues for judicial reform. First, he brings up the issue of age and term limits. He says there should be a limit of three 6 year terms. That should also apply to politicians. Look at who is running the country. Pelosi, Feinstein, Schumer, Bernie Sanders, and even Senator Patrick Leahy, are all 80 or older.  It’s no fun standing before a judge who forgets who you are. In the end, the court of appeals finally took my case away from him fearing he would never release me no matter what. After reassigning the case saying perhaps a “fresh pair of eyes” would help and the other case he had was Frank Quatrone whose case they also took away from him, there is never any possible review of their mental state. Judges were there for life because King Edward I dismissed judges for ruling against him. That risk no longer exists. He says justices should not make the decision when to retire. Justice Ginsberg was trying to hold out for a Democratic president.

Holder wants to dramatically expand the lower courts and he wants to impose a minimum age of 50 to become a federal judge. But he implies that the last time the Supreme Court was expanded to nine was because there were nine circuits. He throws in there that today there are 13 circuits and thus the Democrats should be able to install 4 justices.

There will be judicial tinkering, but the real constitutional crisis remains the Judiciary Act of 1925 which granted the discretion of the justices to hear cases. That is unconstitutional for they swear an oath to defend the constitution but then claim a discretion to do so. You cannot have it both ways. I am NOT bothered by the Democrats appointing four justices to the Supreme Court. I have NEVER seen any evidence that they will vote party lines all the time.

Their whole focus is worried about abortion being outlawed. That is precedent and just because Trump appointed anyone does not mean they would overturn Roe v Wade because it was tied to the right to privacy. Overturn that and they can then do anything to you even under the pretense of COVID.

The Rise & Fall of California


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Jan 29, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Thank you & the Interesting Times We Live In


Armstrong Economics Blog/America’s Economic History Re-Posted Jan 29, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

I just want to say thank you for all the emails I have been getting. These are difficult times, indeed. Nevertheless, the upside is that these tumultuous times are the precursor to reform we all long for. We are all in this together and I am fighting for my grandchildren. I will be gone so I am not doing this for personal gain. At times it is tempting to just shut up and walk the beach until it is time to beam me out of this crazy world. But what I leave behind is all that matters I suppose. We are all dealt a set of cards. When I look back on my life I just followed my nose without ever seeing a path to achieve. Everything I have done in life has led me to where I am today basically by fate or chance. All the people I have met and those who have called upon me have been for the model, not me personally. It has always been what does Socrates say – not my personal opinion.

But as we see there is push-back showing from around the world. New York City has been destroyed. The arts will not come back for the entire culture was more than just local. Many times I attended a Broadway play in New York and at least half the audience were tourists mostly from overseas. With international travel decimated and the fear, the press has created in the hearts of so many that people no longer shake hands.

While Schwab and Gates have been pushing the lockdown strategy which is really to reduce CO2, they are destroying so many jobs and businesses. They have brainwashed many who argue just tax the rich but they fail to understand the “rich” are small businesses and they are not so rich. They envision the people with their $50 million homes and their billion-dollar companies, but the top income tax bracket even includes AOC and all politicians. It is hard to get through all the FAKE NEWS, but there are significant amounts of people around the globe who are waking up and hearing the call from the wilderness.

Some ask: Why do I quote history so much? History repeats because human nature never changes. It remains the same throughout history. The Impeachment of Donald Trump is just vengeance and the Chief Justice has refused to preside because the Constitution calls for the removal from office. Under the theory of the Democrats, we can go back in time and impeach Clinton or Obama. Yet even this vengeance is not unique. However, it is a warning that we do face a complete breakdown of the political stability of the nation and the world.

The most dramatic political struggle offered by history comes from the trial of Pope Formosus (891-896) that took place nine months AFTER his death by the succeeding Pope Stephen VI (or VII)(896-897). Stephen was a family member of Italian aristocrats who Formosus abandoned and crowned Arnulf, the East Frankish king, Holy Roman Emperor. Once Stephen seized the Papacy, he sought to destroy Formosus’ supporters and had the corpse of Formosus redressed in papal vestments and propped up and put on trial. Obviously, he did not defend himself very well. Because of this affair, Stephen was seen as a hateful man whose actions were extreme and thus he quickly fell out of favor was imprisoned himself, and later strangled to death.

If Trump were dead, the hatred pouring out in Washington would probably do the very same thing – dig up his dead body and put him on trial in the Senate. What’s next? We dig up Thomas Jefferson instead of toppling his statues and put him on trial for fathering children with his black slave? During the French Revolution, they dug up all the bodies of the former kings and chopped them up, and threw them in a common grave at Saint-Denis in Paris. This stone marks all the former kings thrown into a common grave.

Real Estate Boom – Mass Exodus from Cities


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate Re-Posted Jan 29, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

We are witnessing a phenomenal shift in real estate where everyone is bailing out of urban cities throughout the country. Even property in the Hamptons has been exploding with people fleeing NYC. While many hedge fund managers are moving to Florida and thousands of companies are fleeing California to Austin or Dallas, Texas, many others are just moving to the suburbs. Others have been moving to Texas and Florida just so their kids can play sports. Indeed, many city dwellers from New York have moved to Dallas. As one reader explained:

I loved your blog today on fake news and read your emails usually 1st thing every day. The top picture looks like the NC seal. Who is that in the picture?

I live in Charlotte and it’s growing like crazy. My next door neighbor moved down from the DC area and 3 houses down the people moved from CA. The previous owner of the house sold to CA people moved to TX because NC high school football was shut down. He had 2 sons playing football and he is a former NFL QB, whose last job was a backup with the Eagles.

The private schools here are having a surge of new students because so many are moving here and the public schools have remote learning.

I personally want to move towards the SC/NC  coast and get out of Charlotte as its so liberal. We’re not rich but our house has appreciated to crazy levels and I see property taxes going crazy.  

TP

Talking to friends in Orlando, they have witnessed the same trend. People moved to Orlando just so their kids could play sports.

Meanwhile, more than $1 billion is owed in back rent thanks to the lockdown in New York City. Governor Cuomo is looking at the state’s loss in revenue and hinted that New York can help to dig out by legalizing gambling and marijuana sales. Governor Cuomo seems to be living in a fantasy world. He has actually said NYC will reopen soon and everything will come back. He  also said, “You’re going to see the arts coming back.”

I personally enjoy the theatre. I had season tickets with designated seats for the season. That was a complete waste, and when they asked if I would renew, I declined. The Broadway plays travel around the country. That came to a complete halt. So it is not just the theatre in New York, as they shut it down nationally. Sorry, I would no longer buy a ticket until they are open and the political nonsense is over. But that does not seem likely until we pass 2022.

The Law & Robinhood


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption Re-Posted Jan 28, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: If there is anyone who has fought the club it is you. Keeping you on civil contempt for 7 years when the statutory maximum is 18 months and they released you only because the Supreme Court was taking your case as an example of the corruption in New York. HSBC pleads guilty criminally and has to return all the money and you had no restitution but the banks didn’t go to jail. That is nothing that was supposed to be American Justice. So what is your opinion since you have also warned to stay out of the New York courts when this class action lawsuit was just filed?

Thank you for surviving their corruption.

GR

ANSWER: Shutting down the market in GME is outrageous. But this is by no means unique. Back in 1980, the COMEX did not shut down the silver market to force the Hunt brothers out of silver, but they made it much more expensive to be long v short. They aided the investment bankers as always. Even the Chicago Board of Trade raised the margin to trade silver by 10x the very day of the high – January 18th, 1980. History repeats because the corruption never changes.

GameStop – Who Done It?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted Jan 28, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

While many pundits are calling this the “squeeze of a lifetime” and a war of retail against the hedge funds, in reality, it was a PERFECT cyclical move after 13 years down. Of course, they are claiming that a band of retail are waging war against the Hedge Funds and the press is claiming “one big question amid the frenzy has been how much the little guys really matter.”

Even AOC has chimed in saying “Gotta admit it’s really something to see Wall Streeters with a long history of treating our economy as a casino complain about a message board of posters also treating the market as a casino.” She then added: “Anyways, Tax the Rich.”

While this is being portrayed as some fluke and others are calling for an investigation that this is just manipulation and a pump and dump, interestingly Socrates picked the low in April 2020 and then entered at first a Breakout Mode in August where the model was calling for a high in many different stocks, and then in September, it entered a Phase Transition mode which is a doubling in price when it closed at 1020. It has now been 8.6 months from the April 2020 low.

When we look at the Timing Array, January was a Target with high volatility coming in February and the next turning point will be in March followed by June. Most interesting is that here too we see a Panic Cycle shaping up for August 2021.

When we look at the monthly chart, the breakout began in January when it punched through the Downtrend Line. It then rallied to the Breakout Line at $200 and moving through that you had the classic Phase Transition.

Monday opened below our Projected Opening Resistance at 99.17 coming in at 96.73. It fell back to fill that gap and closed below the opening print.  What I find really ironic is how a band of retail investors and traders are being blamed for a war on Hedge Funds. Any Hedge Fund that was short this stock was not a professional, to begin with. I would think any basic technical analysis would have screamed “buy” so if they did not listen, they were trying to manipulate the market assuming they had the power. The huge gap up is clearly shorts bailing out who should have been out a long time ago. As noted, this has been in a bullish trend for about 9 months.

My conclusion is that this rally is not a “manipulation” but an attempt to suppress the market and as such the shorts were compelled to bailout. But that is their fault because they were fighting the charts. Hence, the retail participants should not be pounding their chest just yet. The sharp rally is also due to a lack of liquidity. This does not appear to be a pump and dump against the established trend, as the trend was up to start with.


YES – GameStop is a covered market on Socrates Platform

If you aren’t already signed up for Socrates, you can view the different membership options here. To access Reversals and Arrays (as referenced above), you’ll need to sign up for the Pro Membership.

If you are already a Pro Member and are looking to expand the time horizon of the models and have access to a few additional features, consider upgrading to the business version of Socrates.

Acting DC Chief of Police Wants Permanent Fencing Around Capitol


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 29, 2021 by Sundance

The reality of DC elites demanding walls to protect them from the common American is a stunning shift in outlook from when the U.S. Capitol used to be considered “the people’s house.”   Alas the voices are now asking for exactly that… a permanent fence to keep the American people away from those who run government.

WASHINGTON DC – The acting chief of U.S. Capitol Police called for permanent fencing around the Capitol building days after she said that the department “failed” in its efforts to protect the sprawling complex on Jan. 6 when rioters stormed the building.

“In light of recent events, I can unequivocally say that vast improvements to the physical security infrastructure must be made to include permanent fencing, and the availability of ready, back-up forces in close proximity to the Capitol,” Acting Chief Yogananda Pittman said in a statement.

The move would be a striking shift from the accessibility many Americans have enjoyed over the years visiting the grounds of “The People’s House,” such as sitting on the lawn in front of the building, accessing the trails and green spaces around the building and field trips to the steps of the Capitol by schoolchildren. (read more)

Twitter Suspends China Critic and Trump Administration Official Peter Navarro


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 28, 2021 by Sundance

Former White House Trade and Economic Advisor Peter Navarro was the tip-of-the-spear outlining election fraud, via impossible statistics, from the White House.   Navarro is also a well known China critic, which positions him against the objectives of the JoeBama administration.

In a blatant move to protect the interests of a corrupt state, Big Tech continues to shut-down the accounts of voices adverse to their ideological position.

(Epoch Times) […] “It wasn’t because of anything I said, it’s because of who I am and what I might say. The great firewall of Silicon Valley grew another few feet today,” Navarro said Wednesday during an appearance on Fox News’ “Tucker Carlson Tonight.”

“This is totally unacceptable. If Jack Dorsey came up to me in the public square, ripped down a sign from my hand in a peaceful protest, stomped on it, and then muzzled me, he’d get arrested, but he can do that now in the digital public square,” he added. Dorsey is Twitter’s CEO.  (more)