Posted originally on CTH on August 6, 2025 | Sundance
Secretary of State Marco Rubio appears for an interview with Larry Kudlow to discuss the recent reporting around a potential meeting between President Trump and President Putin.
As Rubio notes, following the recent Moscow visit by Steve Witkoff, there is now great clarity on the terms and conditions for Russia to enter a ceasefire period. President Trump has reportedly told EU officials he will likely pick-up the ceasefire negotiations soon via a face-to-face meeting with Putin. WATCH:
At the White House event with Apple CEO Tim Cook, President Trump said that “there’s a really good prospect that” there will be a meeting with Zelenskyy and Putin. But he disagreed with the suggestion it amounted to a “breakthrough.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio notes in the interview here, “an opportunity will present itself very soon for the president to meet both with Vladimir Putin and with President Zelenskyy at some point here, hopefully in the near future.” Rubio added “a lot has to happen before that can occur.”
Posted originally on Aug 6, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
America is desperate for rare earth minerals. China was supplying the US with around 70% of all such minerals, but they’re not going to supply them to an enemy nation to create weapons. As I mentioned yesterday, this is precisely why America is desperate to access Ukraine. I received a few comments asking why the US has not begun digging, and unfortunately, they are unable to reach those crucial minerals due to the ongoing war.
It is estimated that Ukraine holds 5% of the world’s critical raw materials. Ukrainian officials believe they have 19 million tonnes of graphite reserves and significant deposits of titanium, rare earth metals, and lithium. The current plan would require harvesting up to HALF of Ukraine’s minerals and rare earth materials.
On April 30, 2025, Ukraine and the US finalized a minerals deal and established a United States–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. Congress approved a $50 million defense package to Ukraine through direct commercial sales (DCS). Trump is a businessman first and foremost—the mineral deal had to be approved before he would approve of any aid package. The United States now has preferential rights to extract minerals from Ukraine.
Why hasn’t the US begun digging? An estimated 50% of Ukrainian minerals are in areas under Russian control. The Donbas region, the Donetsk and Luhanskare rich in critical minerals, rare earth minerals, coal, and gas. They host the Shevchenko lithium field. Russia currently controls 40% of Ukraine’s metal resources and 56% of its coal reserves. Other essential sites are within a 10-mile radius of occupied enemy territory. Dnipropetrovsk & Kharkiv have uranium, but they are unstable due to frontline advances. Zaporizhzhia has the rare earth elements that America is seeking but it is partially occupied by Russian troops and extremely dangerous. Central and Western Ukraine could be safe for extractions, but they are far less rich in minerals.
Where else can the West turn? Europe faces the same crisis. Estonia has rare minerals, but not enough to meet demand, with the nation currently providing the US with 5% of its needs. Malaysia imports about 13% of US rare earth imports, with Japan providing another 6%. Japan has minerals, but still imports from China. They plan to begin extracting rare earth minerals from the Minami-Torishima Island in 2026, marking the world’s first large-scale mining operation 6,000 meters beneath the ocean. Scientists believe that the area could contain around 16 million tonnes of rare earth elements, but that is a mere estimate. Malaysia has a low mineral reserve in comparison to other nations and cannot be an alternative supplier. Malaysia hosts the Lynas Corporation, the biggest rare earths processor outside China, but the nation has modest reserves.
So while Ukraine may hold nearly $15 trillion worth of crucial minerals and 15% of the world’s reserves, they cannot be accessed due to the ongoing war. China and Russia are abundant in minerals and have no restrictions when it comes to weapon production. China has pioneered molten salt reactors to produce uranium and convert it into nuclear energy. America’s enemies have a notable advantage right now and there are no reliable alternatives.
Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT:
Marty,
yes, they want to talk and force war by any means necessary. How
incredibly crude and predictable the words coming from the mouth of US
Ambassador to NATO, Matt Whitaker, are. Although I know, especially
based on historical facts from WW1 and WW2, how war propaganda and the
demonization of the enemy work, I am still shocked every time by how
blatantly and crudely they keep doing it. I am even more shocked every
time by how stupid the vast majority of people are.
There are times when I would even welcome a population exchange and
extermination of the Western world in the hope and with the stupid but
human impulse that this would eradicate a large part of the evil. I am
fully aware that this is not true. But the human impulse still rises
within me.
I have sons and grandchildren; we left Europe last decade! Especially
because of your predictions! We hope to be far away from the catastrophe
unfolding here in the coming years.
Marty, we owe you a great deal for making the timely decision to leave
Europe.
US Ambassador to NATO, Matt Whitaker:
It’s impossible to get into the mind of Vladimir Putin because it’s sick
and twisted and probably not logical.
But I’m guessing he doesn’t want to take on the most powerful military
in the world, which is the United States of America.
GB
REPLY: This is the problem. Whitaker’s arrogance thinks that the US is so powerful that it can crush Russia without ever firing a shot and calling Putin “sick and twisted” when we started this war, and there were TWO peace deals which the WEST broke – not Russia. I have NEVER in my entire life witnessed such INCOMPETENT diplomacy. The Neocons have been instructing Trump to be strong and yield nothing to Putin, and he will fold. Peace is easy. Just HONOR the Minsk Agreement. But this is a war to destroy Russia, and Trump is a fool who is being played just like George Bush, Jr.
China has already said that they will NOT let Russia lose BECAUSE they know they will be next. The ONLY way to defend against our insane Neocons is to pull together as a united front with Russia, China, North Korea, and others against the West. Both India and China have previously been the financial capitals of the world. Just as Europe lost that because of two world wars, we will do the same.
These Neocons have waged endless wars, and they have lost EVERY SINGLE ONE! They think this will be just a war against Russia, and they can tell China to wait for its turn. This is a war against NATO and China, along with everyone else tired of this Neocon arrogance, will join to eradicate the West.
These insane and arrogant Neocons are just full of themselves. They are NEVER the ones on the battlefield. They send everyone else’s children to die for their aspirations of world dominance and glory. Make no mistake. They seek what they accuse their adversaries of doing – the conquest of the world.
This is the story they always put out. Russia is losing, and we can crush them like an ant.
The computer shows shift changes as of next week, escalating into the week of the 18th. So let me see, Trump will impose crushing sanctions on China for buying Russian oil? They are supposed to bend the knee and say Oh, sorry. We will buy from the US instead? That would be a massive loss of face. Every ultimatum coming out of Trump’s mouth is pushing China and Russia closer together.
Here is Tony Blair’s Apology for listening to the NEOCONS.
Here is General Wesley Clark, who was shocked when the Neocons told him they wanted to conquer the entire Middle East with American troops.
I’m not sure we will have a recording of Trump’s apology for starting World War III. I had hoped he would keep us out. I was wrong. The computer has always been correct. We have a major war on the horizon, and it does not look good.
Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Consumer sentiment remained elevated for the second consecutive month but remains worse than in December 2024, according to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers. Sentiment rose 1.6% in July from June, reaching a reading of 61.7 from 60.7. However, overall sentiment has been 17% beneath December’s reading, although it rebounded from April’s low when the market experienced a sharp downturn due to tariff fears.
“Although recent trends show sentiment moving in a favorable direction, sentiment remains broadly negative,” Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said in the report. “Consumers are hardly optimistic about the trajectory of the economy, even as their worries have softened since April 2025.”
Inflationary fears declined for the second consecutive month as well, dropping from 5% in June to 4.5% in July after peaking at 6.6% in May, again, as a result of tariff uncertainty. Consumers believe inflation will wane in the long run for the third consecutive month, with the figure declining from 4% in June to 3.4% in July, which marks the lowest reading in 2025.
The Consumer Confidence Index, as reported by the Conference Board, rose 2 points to 97.2 in July, and June’s figure was revised to 95.2. The short-term outlook on the Expectations Index rose 4.5 points to 74.4, yet has been below the recession threshold of 80 since February. Business and labor market conditions, as measured by the Present Situation Index, fell 1.5 points to 131.5.
Yet, the Kansas City Fed noted that consumer sentiment is no longer an accurate reading for consumer spending. “Recent data suggest consumer sentiment has been declining for the past several months, signaling a potential slowdown in spending. However, most measures of actual spending, such as core retail sales and PCE, have remained relatively stable. This discrepancy raises the question of how useful consumer attitudes are in predicting actual spending,” the Fed questioned, later concluding, “Consistent with evidence from the prior 30 years, the near-term outlook for spending growth looks similar regardless of whether we account for the recent weakening in consumer sentiment.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also stated “the link between sentiment data and consumer spending has been weak. It’s not been a strong link at all…it wouldn’t be the case that we’re looking at [consumer sentiment] and just completely dismissing it. But it’s another reason to wait and see.”
Consumers are continually pessimistic, albeit less so, as prices remain elevated. We saw a sharp downturn in consumer sentiment with the peak in inflation during 2022. However, regardless of how one feels about the economy, consumers are forced to spend more on less. The FOMC will no longer use consumer sentiment as a strong gauge for future spending or GDP calculations since the correlation remains weak.
Posted originally on Aug 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
US employers have reduced their workforce more in the first seven months of 2025 than in all of 2024. The DOGE cuts to the public sector were the primary driver of layoffs; however, there has been a notable drop in retail and technology positions in the private sector.
July alone saw 62,000 jobs reduced from the workforce, a 30% increase from June and 140% from July 2024. Over 806,000 positions were removed from January to July, surpassing the 761,358 job cuts in all of 2024.
Public sector positions in government saw the largest reduction at 292,294 positions. The current administration implemented the largest public sector reduction in modern US history by offering over 2 million government employees a buyout. Around 65,000 people accepted the buyout offer within the first two weeks alone. Additionally, DOGE halted grant funding to various NGOs and non-profits, leading to 17,826 fires, which amounts to a 413% annual reduction. None of these positions contributed to the US GDP.
The private sector shed 33,000 positions in June 2025, marking the first contraction in the private sector in nearly two years. For 2025 overall, the sectors facing the steepest layoffs are technology (-89,251) and retail (-80,487).
A few major tech companies implemented large layoffs this year such as Intel (-21,000), Microsoft (-15,000), PayPal (-2,500), and HP (-2,000). The advancement of Artificial Intelligence has led to a drastic reduction in workers in the technology sector, with some reports believing that AI is replacing around 491 tech jobs per day. We’ve seen a 36% decline in tech jobs this year compared to last as technology advances. Another issue has been outsourcing positions to places like India. The US outsourced 300,000 tech-based jobs overall to India as offshoring trends continue. Not only is labor cheaper, but India produces over 1.5 million engineering graduates annually. Visa restrictions have less of an impact as remote work is commonplace.
Retail experienced the second-largest decline in private sector roles with a 249% annual decline. Brick and mortar stores are deteriorating as another casualty of creative destruction as consumers prefer to spend online. Various articles are blaming tariffs and price increases for the drop in retail positions, but consumers are simply spending less. Around 20,000 retail positions were lost to AI automation, especially for basic roles and inventory management. American consumers have never rebounded from the increased cost of living. Credit card delinquencies and bankruptcies continue to reach new highs, and every survey indicates that households are spending more on less and focusing their resources on the basics.
Technology and retail are sensitive to advancements in AI. Offshoring has drastically cut competitiveness for American workers in tech. There is an offshoring corporate tax penalty of 28% but it is safe to assume that this figure will rise. As for AI, the government hasn’t found a way to tax robotic systems, but rest assured they will find a way.
Posted originally on Jul 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Ukraine was well-known as the most corruptnation in Europe, if not the world. This is why Ukraine was not permitted to join the European Union, as the bloc determined that the country needed to implement harsh anti-corruption measures if it wanted to join. The EU decided to give that same corrupt government endless funds in their proxy war with Russia. Now, the EU is threatening to freeze funding to Ukraine if government corruption continues.
The National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) lost their independent statuses last week after President Zelensky signed a law to usurp these agencies that are tasked with investigating high-level corruption. The EU has insisted since the 2014 Revolution of Dignity that these agencies remain independent. The promise was a main component of Ukraine’s accession into the bloc, but Zelensky is using martial law to consolidate power. EU officials warned that these actions “cross a red line,” and they are now reluctant to provide unconditional funding.
This is an issue that the people of Ukraine have been speaking out on. They realize that their government is corrupt, and many initially voted for Zelensky as he campaigned on the promise to end government corruption. My sources have said there are ongoing protests over Zelensky’s recent actions that have not been aired on any mainstream media outlet.
The EU is now holding off on providing $20 billion of the $50 billion promised to Ukraine under the Russian asset confiscation scheme. If corruption continues, the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) plan to pause funding. The next package to Ukraine’s Facility Program has been reduced to 3.05 billion euros ($3.5 billion) from 4.5 billion euros ($5.2 billion) as a direct result of ongoing corruption. “Everything has been put on hold until the situation is corrected,” EU officials stated to Ukrainska Pravda.
The European Union has provided Ukraine with $48.6 billion in funds since the war began, and provided another $9.3 billion through frozen Russian assets. Yaroslav Zheleznyak, deputy chairman of the parliamentary tax committee, admitted that Ukraine has only fulfilled 5 of the 11 requirements to join the European Union in a move that could cost Ukraine 3 billion euros. Ukraine is anticipating a 17.2 billion euro ERA loan and a 12.5 billion euro loan to the Ukraine Facility in 2025, but none of that will happen if Zelensky continues down his current path.
Ukraine’s government has no checks and balances for how it spends these loans or donations. The government claims it is operating at a $19 billion deficit despite the large increase in aid. Analysts estimate that the deficit will rise to $40 billion if EU aid ceases. Now, the IMF stipulated that Ukraine needs to reduce its budget deficit to 10% of GDP in 2026 to continue to receive financing.
Several parliament members voting on the future of the NABU and SAPO are currently under investigation by those agencies. They’re going to vote in their best interest, as no government employee is actually a public servant. The Verkhovna Rada will reconsider the future of these anti-corruption agencies on July 31. Rest assured that the corruption will continue, but Zelensky cannot be as blatant about his dealings now that funding is on the line.
Posted originally on Jul 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Where have we seen this before? President Volodymyr Zelensky is wiping through troops so rapidly that he is encouraging men and women over 60 years of age to enlist in the military. Previously prohibited, Zelensky signed the measure into law under the premise of martial law.
The new law encourages people over 60 to sign up for one-year military contracts if they are cleared to serve. There is now no maximum age of service. The Ukrainian military will place seniors under a two-month probationary period to see if they are fit to fight. I fear where they would place these individuals on the battlefield.
Last April, Zelensky also lowered the draft age from 27 to 25. Casualties outnumbered estimates, and in February 2025, Zelensky implemented one-year military contracts for teens and young adults aged 18 to 24 on a voluntary basis. The youngest and oldest among the population are encouraged to fight voluntarily, for now—again, where have we seen this before in modern history?
The Kyiv Independent recently published an article regarding the manpower shortage. Ukraine began a military campaign to specifically target women. They believe women are discouraged from fighting due to “Soviet-rooted prejudice” and are firing up the propaganda to encourage women to enlist. There are currently 70,000 women serving in Ukraine’s military, but the nation needs more women to replenish the ranks.
Ukraine’s military was slated to be around 1 million strong at the beginning of the year, but Zelensky wants to increase that number by 50%. “The Ukrainian army is the largest in Europe. The second place after us (France) is four times smaller than us,” Zelensky attempted to brag. “I think the French have about 200,000. We have 980,000.” Russia allegedly has 1.5 million troops but actual data is opaque.
Zelensky needs everyone in Ukraine to prepare for battle. Children are learning about firearms and ammunition in school. There will come a time when service is no longer voluntary for women, seniors, teens, and young adults. The entire civilian population is expected to sacrifice itself for the deadliest European conflict since World War II, which could have been prevented.
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