Apr 11 2017

Why Davos Predictions Are Always Wrong!

Armstrong Economics Blog/Western Europe

Re-Posted Apr 11, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read the quote that Kenneth Rogoff made about the predictions of the attendees at Davos. He told Bloomberg: “A joke, which I have been telling since the last meeting in Davos, culminates in the fact that the predictions made in Davos are always wrong… No matter how unlikely, the most likely event is the one that is the opposite of the Davos consensus.”

I was talking to a friend who is rather high ranked in a European bank and he said when they really want a forecast they call you. Why do you not speak at Davos? Everyone knows you. So why are you not taking a more prominent role?

Thanks for what you do share with us on the outside.

ANSWER: The Davos meeting is way too public to be important. Its just a convention for food, drink, and parties. It is not serious. However, the media thinks it is like the Bilderberg meetings. I know people who attend both. They no more can decide the fate of the world than they can weather for their flights home. The majority MUST always be wrong. That is how all economics and markets move. Look at the Dow. This is historically the most bearish rally in all of its history. The major have been addicted to predicting every new high is its last. People keep trying to short it and they get stopped out. The shorts keep feeding the rally – not fresh longs. That is why the majority of people are NOT in this market.

The majority must ALWAYS BE WRONG and that goes for both Davos and Bilderberg meetings. For years, being perhaps the largest institutional adviser covering the world, my clients NEVER wanted to see our forecasts on the front page of the WSJ when they were paying for that info. The people who spout out their forecasts to everyone who will listen are trolling for business. If you have the business, you do not need to troll.

There is never any point in appearing publicly at Davos or the Bilderberg meetings to hand out advise for free when they will not listen anyhow until there is a crisis. So you cannot stop or alter the trend for no politician will change course until compelled to do so. Hence, it would be just a waste of time. The such time I would consider speaking at either is when the crisis comes. I have always regarded myself as a crisis manager because nobody will listen to prevent a crisis. They always hate to let go of power.

Apr 11 2017

US Property Tax Comparison by State

Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted Apr 11, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The latest report on tax comparisons within the USA has been released. A report from Attom Data shows just how nuts things are becoming with regard to taxes. Property taxes have become really insane in the North. The average annual property tax bill in Alabama in 2016 was $776 compared to the the highest average is New Jersey where it stands at $8,477.

Now filter in the State Income Taxes and what emerges is human nature. For all the people who complain about multinational companies moving offshore and then deny that it is tax related and try to characterize that as simply labor is cheaper, need to look more closely. The multinational companies I restructured we looked at the whole picture. Wages were a small part and only one component. What was the amount of social taxation on top of the wages, property taxes in a region, and then the corporate tax. Ger – it looks like the individual is making the same analysis.

The net migration of people within the United States mirrors the same thing taking place corporately on a global scale. They are leaving the highest taxed states and moving to the lower taxes states. Taxes are more than just what you pay, they push up the cost of living because everyone is paying a higher tax rate. I took a friend out with his family down from NJ and the bought ice cream cones. The bill was about half that of what they pay at the Jersey shore. I said see: high taxes ripple through everything within the economy raising the price of everything you buy. The net bottom line – taxes rob much more of your disposable income than anyone actually attributes to government directly

Apr 10 2017

South Korean Paper Reports China Has Deployed 150,000 Troops To North Korea Border

by Tyler Durden

Re-Posted from ZERO HEDGE Apr 10, 2017 2:02 PM

While the catalyst is unclear, it appears the market dropped as headlines of further sanctions against Russia appeared and reports of China deploying 150,000 troops to its North Korea border.

According to Korean news agency Chosun, the “Chinese army has deployed about 150,000 troops to the North Korean border in two groups to prepare for unforeseen circumstances.” The reason: the prospect of “military options”, such as preemptive attacks on North Korea, like the one the United States launched on Syria.

More Google translated:

As the United States announced its independent North Korean behavior and moved the United States Navy’s nuclear-powered Calvinus (CVN-70) carrier class to Singapore, the Chinese army has deployed about 150,000 troops in two groups to prepare for unforeseen circumstances.

“The report said. It is because of the prospect of taking “military options”, such as preemptive attacks on North Korea, just as the United States has launched an air raid on Syria.

Japan’s Sankei Shimbun reported on the 9th that the Syrian missile strike in the United States shocked China, suggesting that the People’s Liberation Army forces are moving toward the Yalu River, .

The newspaper said the video was also broadcast on the Internet, but the authorities removed the relevant information, saying the move was a medical and aft support unit for the Shenyang bulb (the northern light bulb)

Another possible catalyst is a report by Russia’s interfax that Moscow is preparing for more sanctions, and has warned local air companies about a possible suspension of charter flights with Tu

POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIAN MILITARY OVER SYRIA NOT TO AFFECT RUSSIA’S ACTIONS IN SYRIA, OPERATION TO FIGHT TERRORISTS TO CONTINUE – OZEROV
RUSSIAN AIR COMPANIES RECEIVE WARNING ABOUT POSSIBLE SUSPENSION OF CHARTER FLIGHTS WITH TURKEY – SOURCE

Whatever the catalyst, the reaction is clear:

http://www.dianomi.com/smartads.epl?id=2381

Dropping stocks below the levels right before Syrian airstrikes began…

The Dow is back at crucial support at the 50–day moving average…

Taking everything but Trannies back into the red for the day.

Gold is bid back over $1250 as USDJPY suddenly plunges.

Apr 10 2017

Doctor Dragged From United Plane After Computer “Solves” Overbooking Problem

by Tyler Durden

A man was violently dragged off of a United Airlines flight Sunday evening after it was apparently overbooked, according to passengers who were on the plane.

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Faudra.dickerson%2Fvideos%2F10104378182069960%2F&show_text=0&width=400

As The Courier Journal reports, a United spokesperson confirmed in an email Sunday night that a passenger had been taken off a flight in Chicago.

“Flight 3411 from Chicago to Louisville was overbooked,” the spokesperson said. “After our team looked for volunteers, one customer refused to leave the aircraft voluntarily and law enforcement was asked to come to the gate.

“We apologize for the overbook situation. Further details on the removed customer should be directed to authorities.”

Passengers were told at the gate that the flight was overbooked and United, offering $400 and a hotel stay, was looking for one volunteer to take another flight to Louisville at 3 p.m. Monday. Passengers were allowed to board the flight, Bridges said, and once the flight was filled those on the plane were told that four people needed to give up their seats to stand-by United employees that needed to be in Louisville on Monday for a flight. Passengers were told that the flight would not take off until the United crew had seats, Bridges said, and the offer was increased to $800, but no one volunteered.

Then, she said, a manager came aboard the plane and said a computer would select four people to be taken off the flight. One couple was selected first and left the airplane, she said, before the man in the video was confronted.

Bridges said the man became “very upset” and said that he was a doctor who needed to see patients at a hospital in the morning. The manager told him that security would be called if he did not leave willingly, Bridges said, and the man said he was calling his lawyer. One security official came and spoke with him, and then another security officer came when he still refused. Then, she said, a third security official came on the plane and threw the passenger against the armrest before dragging him out of the plane.

“Everyone was shocked and appalled,” Bridges said. “There were several children on the flight as well that were very upset.”