Category China’s Hundred Year Marathon

Jun 12 2023

Europeans Do Not Want to Support the US in a War Against China


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jun 12, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

America seems to have lost all true allies. Once the world police, the US has been expected to “save” democracies worldwide since the First World War. The US pledges more to NATO than any other member and has gifted Ukraine endless supplies to protect Europe from “Russian aggression.” Yet, a new poll states that Europeans would not want to back America in a war against China.

Six thousand people were surveyed from Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Sweden. Only a quarter of respondents said they’d “like their country, or Europe, to take America’s side,” while 62% would like to remain neutral. Around 43% said China is a “necessary partner” to the EU, and they must “strategically cooperate” with Beijing. Bulgarians were the most likely to side an alliance with China (8%) and/or consider the nation a “necessary partner” (58%). Swedes were the most willing to support the US, with 26% calling China an adversary. About 31% of Poles also said they would side with America if they were to go to war with China.

What will happen to America’s allies when China becomes the more strategic trading partner? American politicians have destabilized our economy and are attempting to steer away from capitalism. Countries will be lining up to sell to China, and not the US.

In the end, it does not matter. The people are never permitted to vote on whether or not we go to war. Most of us, regardless of nationality, simply want peace. We all want to have enough to live comfortably, which is not an option during wars. They ask us to sacrifice, but for what? Our politicians create conflict and send the people, who never had a say in the first place, into battle to die.

If China enters Taiwan, the world will erupt into chaos. The neocons have been waiting for that very moment to justify a new war. Every NATO member nation would be required to fight China. A Gallup poll from February showed that 65% of Americans wanted to support Ukraine against Russia, but they likely do not realize what it entails. We are not merely giving Ukraine supplies; we are preparing for a worldwide battle. In the end, the people are merely cannon fodder and I hesitate to show any support to a politician who believes war is the only option for conflict resolution.

Jun 5 2023

Tiananmen – 34 Years Ago, Tonight


Posted originally on the CTH on June 4, 2023 | Sundance 

It was 34 years ago tonight when the Chinese government sent the Mongolian Army into Tiananmen Square to crackdown on the mostly student protestors.

It is against the law in China to recognize today, memorialize the dead, or even speak publicly of this bloody anniversary. Few people know the short and long-term political ramifications to this event which extended far beyond the borders of China.

Many people are familiar with this image:

However, not as many people are as familiar with the wide shot.

That’s some serious courage right there.

The June 4th 1989 anniversary holds a great deal of personal significance for those who witnessed the events.  Many of us remember exactly where we were as the first reports started to leak out.

Few people know how most of the regular Chinese military refused orders to open fire on the protesting crowd. Hundreds of young Chinese military soldiers actually formed lines around the mostly student activists in an effort to protect them. The Chinese government eventually bypassed the regulars and instructed the Mongolian military divisions who carried out the orders.

No one really knows how many were killed, and even the families of the fallen were too scared to speak publicly.

Those who were lost live on in whispered memories of lore.

So many.

So young.

We remember.

…Then the tanks came….

Jun 1 2023

Youth Unemployment in China


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Jun 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Chinese youth are struggling to find jobs in urban areas. Unemployment for the 16-to-24 demographic reached a new high in April at 20.4%. Youth unemployment has steadily risen this year after reaching 17.3% in January, 18.1% in February, and 19.6% in March. These young adults were born under the one-child policy that has since been repealed, adding more pressure to succeed to help support their families.

The main change here is that this generation is highly educated. Working in the countryside or in blue-collar roles became less appealing as the opportunity to attend college became widely available. Additionally, China is shifting to a consumer country, and high-paying jobs in the city are more desirable. Chinese students are encouraged to study STEM and seek out top-earning positions. There were 96.37 million people aged 16 to 24 living in urban areas as of March, and 64.18 million were unable to participate in the workforce as the majority were students. Those students are now graduating, and many will be unable to find work in their field of study, similar to most nations.

Unemployment remains low among the “main labor force” aged 25 to 59, but Chinese youth will need to compete for highly desirable jobs in the cities. The new generation is smart, highly educated, and willing to work. But competition will be fierce.

Mar 27 2023

China – US – Claimed Territory – One China Policy


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Mar 26, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:  China’s claimed territory??? So China can claim the entire Pacific as their territory and that means we can’t enter the Pacific???

DF

ANSWER: Whatever China claims is really irrelevant. Up until recently, we did not push the limits and China did not expand its claims. We all agreed to disagree but took no action. In this case, Beijing’s claim of its territorial waters in the South China Sea near the Paracel Islands does not comply with international law.

Nevertheless, the real question is what has changed? You can support war all you want, but remember, this time it will be different. The Neocons are smart. Wrap whatever they do in the American flag and people will die for their claims as well. Wars are created by the elites, not the common people. We also need to examine who is doing what for whatever you thought you were creating for your future and that of your family will exist no more. Everything is changing.

You must understand the language of diplomacy. It may seem irrelevant but it is very critical. The point is that we seem to be deliberately provoking confrontation which is strange and we are abandoning the statement on the One China Policy which has actually protected Taiwan. Before the Neocons seized the White House, there was the agreement of a One China Policy, which tentatively accepted their territorial view of China despite appearing to be more nuanced and fiction rather than substantive.

I know international politics can be very confusing for people unaware that it is all about WORDSMITHING! Words matter and lives depend on those words. Back in January 2017, Rex Tillerson, who was Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to Taiwan, based on the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) and the Six Assurances, at his Senate confirmation hearing. He also indicated that he is not aware of “any plans to alter” the U.S. “one China” policy.

Back in 1979, that is when the United States moved to recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and de-recognize the Republic of China (ROC) (Taiwan). What the United States stated at that time was that the government of the People’s Republic of China was “the sole legal Government of China.” The use of the word “sole” meant that the PRC was and is only China. In those words, there was no consideration of the ROC (Taiwan) as a separate sovereign entity.

Now, against that statement on the surface, the United States did not yield to the Chinese demand that it recognize Chinese Sovereignty over Taiwan. The word “Taiwan” became the name preferred by the United States in the aftermath of the de-recognization of the ROC. So they no longer called it the Republic of China but switched to Taiwan.

This wordsmithing satisfied China and removed the threat of invasion of the ROC. Washington thereby acknowledged the Chinese position that Taiwan was part of China. For geopolitical reasons, both the United States and the PRC were willing to go forward with diplomatic recognition despite their differences on this matter. It became the wordsmithing compromise.

When China attempted to change the Chinese text from the original acknowledge to recognize, the Deputy Secretary of State at the time was  Warren Christopher who testified before the  Senate:

“[W]e regard the English text as being the binding text. We regard the word ‘acknowledge’ as being the word that is determinative for the U.S.”

That was all followed by a U.S.-China Communique on August 17th, 1982. It was there that the United States stated that it had no intention of pursuing a policy of “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan.” This is how diplomacy is carried out. I have to do the same in advising governments economically because it always hangs on a single word.

To this day, the U.S. “one China” position has stood until the Neocons have seized the Biden White House. stands: the United States recognizes the PRC as the sole legal government of China but only acknowledges the Chinese position that Taiwan is part of China. Thus, the United States maintains formal relations with the PRC and has unofficial relations with Taiwan. The “one China” policy has subsequently been reaffirmed by every new incoming U.S. administration. The existence of this understanding has enabled the preservation of stability in the Taiwan Strait, allowing both Taiwan and mainland China to pursue their extraordinary political and socioeconomic transitions in relative peace.

The Washington Post wrote:

“The one-China policy is only a symbol of the long-standing, tacit agreement between the two countries to leave the Taiwan question unresolved. It’s a policy worth saving, if possible. But it’s not an agreement the United States can uphold alone. Right now, the one-China policy looks fragile, but it’s Xi — not Biden — who will decide whether the policy and the peace it preserves will survive.”

Because we have now put Taiwan in the face of China with politicians flying there for support, we have guaranteed that China must NOW take Taiwan. The One China Policy has been tiorn up and that means lives must now be lost and the future will never be the same from here on out. The question is WHY?

Blinken is a Neocon. In diplomacy, you DO NOT threaten China publicly. You do that in private phone calls and meetings. When you do that publicly, you are effectively insuring that they then MUST take action or they will appear to be weak. What is Putin said publicly the US must stop sending weapons to Ukraine, and Biden then says, gee, we will stop sending weapons to Ukraine. The American people will call him a puppet of Putin.

The is a HUGE difference in diplomacy between public and private. The fact that Biden has done everything publicly is a slap in the face to china and ensures that they must now confront the USA. This is all being orchestrated and it will be Americans who die for these deliberate acts of the Neocons who have created every war since Vietnam. I seriously doubt that Biden is even aware of who is now running our Foreign Policy. They just want ware and will get it.

The Neocons have no problem sacrificing your children on their altar of geopolitical power. Peace – is no longer an option. Open your eyes. This is intentional – not stupidity!

Feb 28 2023

War Footing or Ukraine? – Biden Waives Section 303 of DPA Related to Weapons, Ammunition, Explosives and Components


Posted Originally on the CTH on February 27, 2023 | Sundance 

The Defense Production Act (DPA 1950 amended, pdf) essentially is a legislative hurdle that stops the executive from stepping into the private sector and restricting trade, commerce or manufacturing, unless the President says a critical shortage of “xxxx” is present and national security is at stake. It prevents citizens from the threat of govt nationalization of resource “xxxx”.

In the event the President makes a national security determination, he/she is required to inform congress, invoke the waiver authority, and identify which sectors he/she is now outlining as a national security… such that government purchase orders take precedent in the supply of “xxxx”.  Yesterday, President Biden invoked this authority.

Given the pandemic shortages are over, and given the sectors outlined, it looks like munitions, raw material, explosives, electronics and certain component issues related to the Defense Dept are outlined.

Key section: “Therefore, I waive the requirements of section 303(a)(1)-(a)(6) of the Act”…

…”specifically for defense organic industrial base supply chains critical to the Department of Defense and critical supply chains for electronics, kinetic capabilities, castings and forgings, minerals and materials, and power and energy storage.” (link)

It’s a use of the DPA definitively targeting defense materials.  Which raises the question(s):

Is this to secure weapons for shipment to Ukraine?..  OR, Is this to secure a buildup of weapons for a larger purpose?   Meaning, is this preparing for an expanded war effort?

There is a lack of media curiosity.  However, perhaps drawing attention to it will stimulate someone to ask the Pentagon?

In the interim, ammunition might become a little harder to find.

Feb 27 2023

China has Warned US They Will Attack US Troops in Taiwan


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Feb 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

A commentator for the Global Times, reported a threat to the United States last Thursday night, stating that China would not hesitate to engage U.S. forces stationed in Taiwan if the Chinese launched an invasion of the island nation. Indeed, Hu Xijin, formerly the editor-in-chief of the Global Times, reacted to a Wall Street Journal report about U.S. troops traveling to Taiwan. He called it “illegal” and suggested that China would treat them as enemy combatants.

“It’s illegal for these US soldiers to go to Taiwan and the Chinese mainland won’t take any responsibility for their safety,” tweeted Hu. “If we take military action when necessary, they’ll be wiped out together with the resisting Taiwan troops. They can also be eliminated first as the invading army.”

Feb 22 2023

Chairman Xi Plans Moscow Visit, Putin Suspends START Treaty, Maersk Exits Russia, Biden Talks Moldova, Planets Aligning for War


Posted originally on the CTH on February 21, 2023 | Sundance 

First things first, history may not always repeat, but it always rhymes.  Secondly, history tells us that only two things have ever pulled what we now call “western nations” out of a collective economic depression; (1) war, and (2) housing starts.

If you accept the WEF climate control agenda of a ‘managed transition‘, where economies are reduced in size to match lowered energy production, as generally speaking akin to a western economic depression.… then, you begin to ask the logical question.  How do the managers avoid the consequences?

If global (non BRICS) economic contraction is akin to a western economic depression, I would argue the consequences are identical.  Then, when major economies are in a state of shrinking and the citizens are feeling the horrible effects, something large is needed to change the economic equation.

With central banks raising interest rates to achieve the policy supporting contraction, the option for ‘housing starts’ to change the dynamic is removed.  That leaves, ‘war’.

President Putin and Chairman Xi are not stupid men.  They are big picture strategists.

♦DATA POINT – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move to suspend his country’s involvement in the last remaining arms control treaty with the U.S. came as a disturbing surprise to multiple former officials who negotiated the pact and nonproliferation experts committed to ending the expansion of nuclear forces. (read more)

Can you blame him?  The Western Alliance has already blamed Putin for the global food crisis they created by the World Economic Forum energy policy shift.  The Western Alliance accepts no responsibility for advancing hostility -through NATO expansion- on to Russia’s doorstep.  The Western Alliance has attempted to sanction Russia out of the global economy.  With the same Western Alliance now positioning for war, why would Putin adhere to their limitations?

♦DATA POINT – Chinese leader Xi Jinping is preparing to visit Moscow for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the coming months, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the plan. (read more)

Can you blame them?  Pay no attention to the Reuters narrative woven inside the article about China wanting to negotiate peace.  To accept that narrative is to believe there is no dragon behind the panda mask.  We are too far into the geopolitical awakening to say the dragon doesn’t exist and simultaneously hold its own interests (belt & road, and/or Taiwan) within the context. Ignoring the dragon behind the mask is really quite silly.  BRICS exists as an economic alliance of like-minded nations for exactly this geopolitical dynamic.

♦DATA POINT – Shipping and logistics group A.P. Moller-Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) has agreed to sell its two logistics sites in Russia to IG Finance Development Limited, it said on Monday, nearly marking the end of its business activities in the country. […] After that, Maersk will not have any business in Russia. (read more)

The major multinationals always position themselves to avoid the consequences of war.  Additionally, Moller-Maersk is already going to feel a major financial impact from the shrinking of the Western economies they generally service with their cargo transportation.  Smaller economies = less cargo = less ships = less revenue.  Moller-Maersk has to pick a side; they are aligned with the Western Alliance.  Hence their exit from Russia.  China/India will eventually fill the void. Again, BRICS.

These are data points just in the last 12 hours.  In addition to these data points from today, the saber rattling from the DC foreign policy and war machine financial system is on display in the Biden policy as transmitted from Warsaw. Again, just today.

Like us, I’m pretty sure from watching his statements and eventual policies over the past several years, President Donald Trump views foreign policy through the prism of economics.   If “economic security is national security,” then what is it when economic insecurity is an intentional design policy?

All of the economic data points have aligned toward direct military conflict between the Western Alliance and Russia that expands beyond the proxy war in Ukraine.

If the path is continued, this process eventually ends up with World War III.  Which, not coincidentally, boils down to the Western Economic Alliance -vs- BRICS, with a few remaining neutral and the middle east as the unknown variable.

Sound familiar?

Look below, you might find a familiar visual reference:

Yep, history rhymes.

Any questions? 

Feb 21 2023

Annnnd, ACTION! – Traveling by Train Joe Biden Makes Surprise Visit to Kyiv, Ukraine


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 20, 2023 | Sundance

The theatre and pantomime of Ukraine, as orchestrated by the White House & State Dept. and summed up in the phrase “World War Reddit,” continues.  I will admit, the air raid sirens were a nice touch.

Joe Biden made a surprise trip into Kyiv, where the word “surprise” is intended to fall upon the eyes and ears of the American public, not the Ukrainian government or the Russians who were given advanced notice that Joe Biden was traveling to Kyiv to meet with President Zelenskyy.

The White House admits in their on-the-record briefing {Read Here} that Russia was informed of the trip prior to Biden’s departure from Washington DC. So, the New York Times framing of the transportation aspect, “after a trans-Atlantic flight to Poland, Mr. Biden crossed the border by train, traveling for nearly 10 hours to Kyiv, as other American officials have in recent months,” was clearly done as part of the theatre around the visit.

Additionally, as every media article about the visit includes (for additional “color” of the performance) air raid sirens were sounded as Joe Biden and President Zelenskyy stepped out into the streets.  From the screenplay as written. I suggest reading in your best Richard Attenborough dramatic voice:

“Mr. Biden arrived early Monday morning to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky, and the two stepped out into the streets of Kyiv even as an air-raid siren sounded, a dramatic moment that underscored the investment the United States has made in Ukraine’s independence.“

[…] “Mr. Biden joined Mr. Zelensky for a visit to St. Michael’s monastery in downtown Kyiv, where the sun glittered off the golden domes as the air-raid alarm wailed. Trailing two soldiers bearing a wreath, the two leaders walked along the Wall of Remembrance, with portraits of more than 4,500 soldiers who have died since Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014 and first fomented a rebellion in eastern Ukraine.

The air-raid alarm had stopped by the time Mr. Biden got back into his motorcade and departed the monastery. The alarms sound almost daily in Kyiv, but the blare of the siren added to the bristling tension of the moment. (read more)

Everything, and I do mean e.v.e.r.y.t.h.i.n.g, about the Russia-Ukraine war narrative, via western media, is a scripted performance using the best deployed messaging and narrative engineering systems as created by Hollywood and corp media.  No western nation can generate propaganda as well as the United States.

White House Deputy National Security Advisor and Deputy Director of the National Economic Council, Daleep Singh, told everyone in February 2022 what the strategic policy of the Biden administration was toward Russia in the aftermath of the Ukraine conflict beginning.  Few were paying attention:

…”Ultimately, the goal of our sanctions is to make this a strategic failure for Russia; and let’s define a little bit of what that means. Strategic success in the 21st century is not about a physical land grab of territory; that’s what Putin has done.  In this century, strategic power is increasingly measured and exercised by economic strength, by technological sophistication and your story – who you are, what your values are; can you attract ideas and talent and goodwill? And on each of those measures, this will be a failure for Russia.” (LINK)

Deputy National Security Advisor Daleep Singh boiled down geopolitical power to a cultural issue of social likeability.  Everything that has followed that February 24, 2022, announcement has been a strategic construct for public consumption.  This is why I called the conflict “World War Reddit.”  As a result, one year later we see the theatrics of the conflict story once again being performed by the White House.

Very few people will recognize this.  Fewer still even paid attention to the statements that preceded the theatrics.

World War Reddit continues….

https://youtube.com/watch?v=_5CpMu8YUVo%3Ffeature%3Doembed

.

Feb 20 2023

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Admits Goal is to Shrink Economy to Meet Decreased Energy Supplies


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on February 19, 2023 | Sundance

This video interview segment was sent to me today along with a “wow, you were right” message.  Apparently, the interview took place a few weeks ago (it’s new to me), but the admissions within it are quite remarkable.

The CNBC discussion surrounds inflation and the federal reserve raising interest rates. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is talking about the jobs report, inflation and the intention of the federal reserve to continue raising interest rates until they achieve 2% inflation, regardless of consequence.  Kashkari doesn’t hedge on the latter issue of consequence; he affirms with absolute guarantee the fed will keep raising rates until the economy shrinks enough such that 2% inflation is achieved.  However, watch what happens when Joe Kernan takes that outlook and overlays “supply side” energy policy.  WATCH (10:22 prompted):

https://youtube.com/watch?v=XpZK-fexCUA%3Fstart%3D622%26feature%3Doembed

The issue is quite simple, really.  When additional oil, coal and natural gas development is blocked as an outcome of policy, energy prices jump massively.  We are seeing 2022/2023 price increases in electricity, home heating, fuel, gasoline, natural gas and other total energy price outcomes in the 60%+ range.

As a direct outcome of energy policy, all of the downstream products and services have massive upward supply side price pressure.  When the input prices are driving upward of 60%, the downstream prices increase accordingly.  Farming costs, fertilizer, feeding, transportation costs, food at retail and wholesale, and just about every petroleum-based product, which is almost everything, increases in price accordingly.

If supply side energy price increases are pushing +60%, and the Fed will only accept a 2% inflation output result, the only method of achieving the desired result is to shrink energy demand.  This is the goal of the current Fed monetary policy.  In this interview Kashkari admits the dynamic for the first time in public.

Prior to this interview, the Fed was being too-cute-by-half as they talked about targeting the ‘demand side’ through increased rates.  The demand they were targeting is the energy demand, but people (mostly in the financial and business world) were not willing to accept that Federal Reserve monetary policy would intentionally try to shrink the economy.

When overall energy price increases are driving upward of 60%, it is going to take a major amount of economic contraction to drop energy demand to meet the diminished energy supply.  CTH has been warning about this ultimate objective for over two years.  It’s a simple economic situation.

+60% price on the supply side, with a goal of +2% on the downstream demand side, equals a major amount of activity needing to be removed. Essentially energy use needs to drop by half.

You can put everyone in an electric car and still not even come close to dropping energy demand 50%.  You cannot “energy efficient” your way to a 50% drop in demand; there just isn’t enough waste in the system, especially when people are already paying close attention to energy use because it costs so much.

This “transition to the new green economy” is a whole of society shift.

This “transition to the new green economy”, is a multi-generational shift.

The transition includes putting people in smaller houses, stopping their travel, stopping their purchasing of new goods, taking down entire industries and limiting human activity on a massive scale.

Something akin to the COVID-19 lockdown period would be needed, only this level of diminished economic activity would be permanent.

It makes you wonder if the COVID-19 lockdown was the test to see how much energy use would drop if everyone was stopped in place.  And yes, during the COVID lockdowns, human activity did stop, economic activity did stop, and energy use did drop by the nearly amount we are talking about.

When you accept what Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is openly admitting in that interview segment, particularly as he is asked about the massive supply side costs and how that overlays, then you realize how prescient the image is below.

This image is the exact future you see flowing from the “radical transformation,” or what is also called “managing the transition“…

At the end of the transition, you have two social societies.   One social system is a massive assembly of human activity all in close proximity. The alternative social system consists of those who do not wish to be jammed into Build Back Better cities yet forced to sustain themselves because the energy production and delivery resources in the larger geography have been stopped.

Now you know why I asked the question, “where would you live” over a decade ago.

Feb 16 2023

America’s biggest threat – China


Newsmax TV Posted originally on Rumble on February 15, 2023