QUESTION: Marty; The GMW was saying it was a knee jerk low the day before the week closed. Do you have to wait for the week close?

KW

ANSWER: Technically yes. The comment is as of the close of that time level so in the case of Knee Jerk Events, it is forecasting in reality that the event (high or low) will hold. It also depends upon how the event unfolds on the Weekly to Yearly level. You can get that Knee Jerk low show up early in the week and then rally into the close of that week with all the time it saying it is a Knee Jerk event. The important aspect is that the event is being identified as a Knee Jerk rather than a capitulation and change in trend. That is very important.

What we have been building is a database of the GMW whereby each pattern number is recorded with the event that follows. We are then running systems on that to see if it is possible to produce a highly accurate forecast of say when event #10550 takes place #11870 follows.

We are always looking at more in-depth means of analysis that is testing the boundaries of forecasting.

QUESTION: Hello, could you explain the differences between “Knee Jerk v Spike v Temp v Reaction Events” ? They are all Timing indications I guess? regards.

ANSWER: When the computer is classifying something as a Knee Jerk high or low, it means it is a one-time-unit event. A Reaction High or Low has not penetrated the previous event and is at least a three-time-unit event. A Temp High or Low is normally a brief trend greater than three-time-units.

Here is the Global Market Watch on gold. You can see it correctly forecast two Knee Jerk lows, which proved to be correct. It is the GMW which eliminates personal opinion and is based solely upon pattern recognition. This is neither technical nor cyclical based. This is something altogether unique and represents true Machine Learning Intelligence.

QUESTION:  Martin,
Love your blog, especially your historical perspective.
You recently responded to a viewer that we should take precious metals out of safety deposit boxes. Is there a reason for this? To my understanding the bail-in rules for banks in N.america put deposits and bonds at risk only?
Thanks.

ANSWER:  The contents of a safe deposit boxes are not covered by FDIC insurance. Never store a passport or any document you might need to get a hold of in emergency in a safe deposit box. The government can simply close all banks as they did in 1933 in a “Banking Holiday”. At 1:00 a.m. on Monday, March 6, President Roosevelt issued Proclamation 2039 ordering the suspension of all banking transactions, effective immediately. He had taken the oath of office only thirty-six hours earlier.

From March 6 to March 10, banking transactions were suspended across the nation except for making change. Roosevelt presented the new Congress with the EMERGENCY BANKING ACT at this time. The law empowered the President through the TREASURY DEPARTMENT to reopen banks that were solvent and assist those that were not. The House allowed only forty minutes of debate before passing the law unanimously, and the Senate soon followed with overwhelming support.

Banks were divided into four categories. Surprisingly, slightly over half the nation’s banks were deemed first category and fit to reopen. On the Sunday evening before the banks reopened, Roosevelt addressed the nation through one of his signature “FIRESIDE CHATS.” Roosevelt assured sixty million radio listeners that the crisis was over and the nation’s banks were secure. The bank run was over. On June 16, 1933, Roosevelt signed the GLASS-STEAGALL BANKING REFORM ACT, and also created the FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION.  Keep in mind the the government can close all banks for there is precedent. Whatever you have in a safe deposit box can also be seized and inspected.

There is no precise law against storing metal or cash in a safe deposit box. But law is malleable in the hands of any judge. He can seize the money or gold under the pretense of money laundering hiding it from the government. Under Civil Asset Forfeiture, they can assume the money is guilty of a crime being even tax evasion. It then is your burden to fight in court to get it back if you can hire a lawyer.

On April 1st, 2015, Chase bank in the US advised clients who rent safe deposit boxes from them that there would be some changes in their policies. Of particular interest is the following condition:

“Contents of box: You agree not to store any cash or coins other than those found to have a collectible value.”

This is why I recommend buying $20 common date gold coins and not modern bullion. You need to be in a position to say these are collector coins – not bullion. Gold is a HEDGE AGAINST government in the midst of a crisis. Gold does NOT rise with inflation. The 1980 high adjusted for inflation is about $2300. So if gold is a HEDGE, it is during a crisis. The risk of being able to get to a safe deposit box in a crisis diminishes greatly.