Crude & the Waterfall


Crude-M GMW 3-9-2017

COMMENT: Marty; I have to say, the forecasting on Socrates in Oil is very impressive. It picked the high and then forecast a water fall in February even though February closed higher. From even a technical perspective, it did not appear that such a sharp collapse would unfold.

Absolutely amazing

KW

CRUDE-M 3-9-2017

REPLY: This is completely a pattern recognition system which is machine learning based so it constantly improves with time. It is writing its own code. Every pattern it discovers across all markets it records and assigns it a specific number. A monthly closing below 5240 will keep oil in a bearish position, but the technical support lies at the 4415 level. A monthly closing below 4200 will signal the reversal of fortune. Otherwise, welcome to the choppy world of market chaos.

This collapse in oil prices is based upon the amount of crude oil in U.S. storage facilities rose to another record high reaching 8.2 million barrels from the previous week, according to the Energy Information Administration. The increase was more than four times what analysts expected.The fact that the computer can pickup these patterns demonstrates that those who have such information begin to trade in anticipation. Picking-up these patterns may be extremely subtle. Nevertheless, the flow of capital is the key to everything

French Political Parties Disintegrating


France 50-francs-1986

While Marine le Pen has reversed her position on introducing a new French franc saying she will set the rate at one-to-one to the euro and then allow it to float, whereas previously she said she would peg it to a basket of currencies. Meanwhile, we are looking at the collapse of the Fifth Republic formed by Charles de Gaulle. France is clearly on the brink of another political revolution. It has been astonishing to watch four career political candidates for the presidency be rejected by voters — two former presidents and two former prime ministers. François Fillon is on the ropes for political corruption. He tries to hold on for personal reasons rather than recognizing he is helping to destroy the Fifth Republic.

The French campaign is being usurped by all political outsiders with the Front National’s Marine Le Pen leading and a new youthful former banker, Emmanuel Macron who has been gathering support from the disintegrating political party system. Our model called for the collapse of the Socialists and indeed Hollande could not recover from the lowest poll rating perhaps in world history. The Socialists have instead chosen a very eccentric radical, Benoît Hamon, who champions the same nonsense. This seems to now be shaping up to be a classic battle between the more liberal Macron and the nationalist with Le Pen.

5 Francs 1977 5th Republic of France

The Fifth Republic, France’s current republican system of government, was established by Charles de Gaulle under the Constitution of the Fifth Republic on October 4th, 1958 (1958.758).  Here too, there appears to be the risk of forming a new government (fall of the 5th Republic) by mid 2021.

Iran confirms new successful missile test as tensions with US mount


I would bet that they are a lot closer to the bomb than anyone things, and may actually already have one. Maybe all the North Koreans tests aren’t theirs — what if they are also testing Iranian weapons?

France warns construction giant Lafarge against participating in Trump’s wall project


I’m sure there are American companies that make cement.

As North Korea missile threat grows, Japan lawmakers argue for first strike options


If North Korea starts WW III that would be a shame directly tied to Madeleine Albright and the William Clinton administration.

End Game: Russia Unites Assad, Kurds to Push Turkey out of Northern Syria


Good move!

Polish MP Threatened to be Expelled for Challenging Donald Tusk


Jacek Saryusz-Wolski

Tusk DonaldThe EU is in serious trouble on all fronts. They are lashing out trying to maintain the supremacy of Brussels to dictate to the rest of Europe. Now the Polish MP Jacek Saryusz-Wolski has been threatened with expulsion for opposing the European Council President Donald Tusk, who is a believer in federalizing Europe by force. The EU dream is simply not working, for it was designed with arrogance and the objective to federalize Europe, which they denied at the outset. They assumed the people were too stupid to know what was best for them so they would do it covertly by dictatorship.

The dream of a federalized Europe was to prevent European internal war. It has had the exact opposite effect. This is exposing the centuries of resentment and differences. The EU should have remained as a simple economic trade cooperation entity. This concept of federalizing Europe into a single government to stop war has been a total failure. If Brussels does not stop this insanity, Europe will move once again into internal war.

China Telecom Giant ZTE Pleads Guilty, To Pay $1.2 Billion Penalty For Selling US Tech To Iran


Tyler Durden's picture

In Wilbur Ross’ first public announcement, the former hedge fund manger and current Trump commerce secretary announced that China’s telecommunications giant ZTE has agreed to pay a total of $1.2 billion in penalties and plead guilty to violating U.S. sanctions on Iran, selling US technology to Tehran, and obstructing a federal investigation, ending a five-year probe that has raised trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The penalty was among the largest ever in a sanctions case.

ZTE was accused that over a six-year-long period, it planned to obtain technology products from the U.S., incorporate them into ZTE equipment and ultimately ship the equipment to Iran. The company agree to settle because as the WSJ adds, it avoided a more-devastating supply cutoff of U.S. components, which the Commerce Department slapped on ZTE in March 2016 and immediately suspended as a settlement was negotiated. Without key components such as Qualcomm processors for its smartphones, ZTE’s ability to produce some of its major products could have been crippled in a matter of months, putting it at the risk of bankruptcy.

The Chinese telecom giant will pay an initial fine of $892 million as part of the settlement, and will plead guilty to conspiring to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, among other charges, in the agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce, Department of Treasury and Department of Justice.

“The highest levels of management within the company approved the scheme,” and the company “repeatedly lied to and misled federal investigators,” said Mary McCord, who runs the Justice Department’s national security division.

The Commerce Department investigation followed reports by Reuters in 2012 that ZTE had signed contracts to ship millions of dollars worth of hardware and software from some of the best-known U.S. technology companies to Iran’s largest telecoms carrier.

“ZTE acknowledges the mistakes it made, takes responsibility for them, and remains committed to positive change in the company,” ZTE Chairman and Chief Executive Zhao Xianming said on Tuesday in a statement. An agreement caps a year of uncertainty for the Shenzhen-based company, which in March 2016 was placed on a list of entities that U.S. suppliers could not work with without a license. ZTE acted contrary to U.S. national security or foreign policy interests, the Commerce Department said at the time.

Commerce will recommend that ZTE be removed from that list if the company lives up to its deal and a court approves its agreement with the Justice Department.

According to Reuters, ZTE said it has agreed to an additional penalty of $300 million to a division of the Commerce Department that will be suspended during a seven-year term on the condition that the company complies with requirements in the agreement. The settlement includes $101 million to settle potential civil liability for Iran sanction violations. The action marks the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control’s largest settlement to date with a non-financial entity.

One of the world’s biggest telecommunications gear makers and the No. 4 smartphone vendor in the United States, ZTE sells handset devices to U.S. mobile carriers AT&T, T-Mobile US  and Sprint. It relies on U.S. companies including Qualcomm, Microsoft and Intel for components.

Ukrainian Revolution Continues


Courthhouse March 2017

Ukraine Russian Troops-RMany people have claimed that the Ukrainian Revolution was all orchestrated by the CIA. That claim comes from the conspiracy side of people who comment without any direct knowledge. I have had friend there. One had the courage to go up to a Russian solider and thank them for protecting them and they allowed the person to take a picture with them. I published that as proof of Russian troops had entered Ukraine well before it was publicly known. (I cropped the photo to remove my source).

While the CIA began to intervene into the politics picking who they wanted for the new government, the uprising was genuine and came from the people. I was reporting in December 2013 that the uprising was starting and it was over corruption. That corruption continues and now the official who is in effect like the head of the IRS is hiding in court and the judges do not charge him because they are all part of the same corruption. Under the law, if he is not charged within 72 hours, he must be released. The people have once again stormed the courthouse and have barricaded it to prevent him from leaving.

His wealth is massive and it is assumed to have been gathered by bribes. The people of Ukraine rose up against the corruption and the West usurped the government for political purposes under Obama and Joe Biden’s son was even put in charge of energy there. The corruption continued and the Obama Administration sought to usurp the rights of the Ukrainian people to resurrect the cold war with Russia. So we are witnessing that the PEOPLE of Ukraine are still not free and the resentment remains as an open sore.

Another Coup Building in Turkey?


Erdogan Flags

Our sources in Turkey are hinting that there is building the resentment against Erdogan and he knows that there is trouble in the wind. Erdogan is desperate to blame the West and find an enemy to point the finger at for all the problems he has caused including the collapse in the currency. Erdogan is now comparing German behavior with Nazi period. These type of attacks upon the West are strategic insofar as they are an attempt to create and external enemy and thus create unity within his country to suppose his policies.

Turkey is a member of NATO and there are missiles stationed there. They should be removed before it is too late. This is part of the growing destabilization of the Middle East. Pay attention to oil also moving forward.