Media’s Use of ‘Mamet Principle’ Running on Autopilot…


Liberal turned conservative David Mamet famously said: In order to continue advancing their illogical arguments modern liberals have to pretend not to know things… The current Mostly Swamp Me…

Source: Media’s Use of ‘Mamet Principle’ Running on Autopilot…

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EU In Disintegration Mode


Eurozone Breakup

Euro Anti-CrisisThe EU leadership is really trying to make Great Britain pay dearly for voting to exit the Community. Like the socialists in American, it’s our way or no way. The left may call the right the “deplorables” but the left are the “intolerables” who refuse to ever consider they might be wrong.

The EU think that is they can make it so bad for Britain, nobody else will leave. They refuse to examine why there is rising discontent within Europe. They refuse to let go of this dream of a federalized Europe to eradicate national identities along with sovereign rights.

The EU intend to be it a mistake that the British will regret and fall to their knees. This attitude is consistent with the constant endeavor to explain all the shortcomings of the EU as insignificant and irrelevant, thereby closing their ears and mind to any possible reform. The EU constantly repeated motto of a federalized Europe will less the risk of war but nobody else takes this seriously outside of Brussels. The “European Project” is creating the resentment that fuels war. With this policy in place, the Community has refused to listen to anyone but themselves. This has led to small issues festering and creating resentment which grows into a huge problem and Brexit that has spun Frexit and all the rest.

The EU refuse to even listen to the British and chose to ignore the speeches of the British Prime Minister, Theresa May. The PM May has announced a clear separation and rejected all interim solutions by the EU, which ultimately would still lead to a dependency upon Brussels. Britain demands that each nation must decide for itself who can immigrate. Just because Merkel allowed the refugees in to help her polls should not subjugate other nations to have to endure a vast influx of something they never voted for.

Britain is not willing to surrender all domestic law to that of the EU. Indeed, EU law is no longer to be applied in Britain. Here we have the EU demanding Ireland retroactively charge Apple taxes simply because their tax rate is less that the highest EU member. That is surrendering everything sovereign to Brussels. Laws are only to be decided by the British parliament – not Brussels. Jurisprudence is a matter for the British courts not the European Court.

Free TradeBritain is to leave the EU internal market and the EU Customs Union and seeks a free trade agreement to be concluded between the EU and Great Britain. The EU seeks to punish Britain for rejecting its dream. The EU forgets that Trump is now in and a trade deal with Britain will no longer be at the back of the cue as was the case under Obama.

Free movement of people, together with the free movement of goods, free movement of services and the free movement of capital, are the four fundamental freedoms which are regarded as the foundation of the EU. The free movement of persons justifies the right of all EU citizens to settle in the Union and to accept work. However, this has not worked as smoothly as presumed. The cost of living is significantly different throughout the EU. Eastern Europeans, mainly from Poland, have infiltrated Britain working for less money creating competition for domestic workers while foreign companies use cheaper labor in the East to undercut domestic companies on their home-turf.

As the economy turns down and deflation prevails, the threat of foreign jobs is being addressed throughout Europe. Add to this the refugee crisis and you have a power keg throughout Europe waiting to go off.  In view of the high unemployment in almost all countries, domestic citizens have ALWAYS turned against foreign workers as the easy scapegoats for the economic decline. This only merges with the high taxes reducing disposable income.

IntruderThe EU leaders have nothing to say about the criticisms. They have no clear statement to challenge what is going on. The regulatory nightmare and outright rage that is rising among the people is simply ignored by Brussels. The legal uncertainty with the British exit on the banking system is something nobody even wants to speculate about. How do bail-ins works in Europe if abandoned in Britain? So while the EU thinks by punishing Britain they will discourage others from leaving, they are seriously mistaken. The dream of the EU is dead. It should have remained just a trade union – that was it.

What the Trump Administration is clueless about the ability of the EU to hold it together, they fail to grasp that talking the dollar down will just not work if the political structure of the EU is breaking up.

 

Rome’s Flat Tax Created the Biggest Economic Boom in History


 

Circus Maximus

In the earliest days of the Republic Rome’s taxes were quite modest, and were not direct, but were a property tax or a wealth tax on all forms of property, including land, houses, slaves, animals, money and personal effects. The basic rate was just 1% and sometimes it would occasionally rise to 3%. This was to fund the pay for the army during war. The tax would often be rebated to the people out of the spoils of war. It was levied directly upon individuals, which required the government to conduct a censuses. We have the Biblical account in Luke 2.1-5 where it reads that Caesar Augustus (27BC-14AD) decreed that the Roman Empire should be taxed and that everyone had to return to his own city to pay taxes. So Joseph and Mary returned to Bethlehem and there Jesus was born. In Egypt, we know that there was a 14 year cycle to the census from the time of Augustus. The inhabitants of Egypt were required to submit a declaration to local authorities containing the names, ages, and other identifying information of all co-inhabitants. Indeed, many declarations have survived on papyrus. There are a consistent run of documents showing every census between 33/34AD and 257/258AD, with evidence that this cycle extends back to 19/20AD at the very least.

Direct taxation was impossible in the Roman Empire so there was no income tax. Property taxes were more efficient and could be administered by census. Income taxes were not possible simply because there was not such mechanism at that point in time. Local communities would decide for themselves how to divide up the tax burden among their citizens.  There were the hated Tax Farmers who would pay the tax to the state for a region and then they had the right to collect taxes. States today have taken past-due taxes and sold them to modern Tax Farmers to collect. Britain did that selling the student loans for pennies and the Tax Farmers collect and chase students. The Romans would sell the right to collect taxes to the highest bidder and how they collected the tax was not really the concern of the state. They also had the responsibility of converting provincial taxes, which were often collected in-kind taking property be it grain or animals, and then they would convert those assets into coin to pay the state. The Tax Farmers had to provide sufficient revenues to repay their advance to the state plus enough to cover the opportunity cost of the funds, the transactions cost of converting collections into cash, and the remainder was their profit. In fact, tax farming was quite profitable and
was a major investment vehicle for wealthy citizens of Rome.

Augustus-BustAugustus ended tax farming that had dominated the Republican days due to complaints from the provinces of exploitation. The provinces were becoming deeply indebted. Cicero tells us that Brutus saw no problem exploiting others for profit. Brutus was a Tax Farmer and bid for the governorship of Cyprus. It was during this time period that Brutus enriched himself by also skimming taxes and then lent money to Ariobarzanes I (96-63BC) of Cappadocia (modern day Turkey) at 40%, well above the legal lending rate, which was confirmed by Cicero’s documents on Brutus.

The Augustinian tax system was far less progressive than the Republic. The shift moved to a flat tax type of assessment which was based on wealth and population. Tax Farmers had limited times to collect taxes, so they tended to extort the rich for that was easier than converting pigs and chickens from the poor. The Augustinian tax systemgreatly reduced the “progressivity” that is indicative in an income tax today. The Augustus flat tax was thus indexed so to speak to growth in taxable capacity where communities were only liable for a fixed payment. Thus any increase in income accrued entirely to the people as a whole and did not have to be shared with Rome. Individuals knew in advance the exact amount of
their tax bill and that any income over and above that amount was entirely theirs. This tax system promoted economic growth rather than the explotive system of the Republic. Indeed, the civil war supported Julius Caesar because of the burden of taxes and the exploitation of Tax Farmers.

The flat tax of Augustus created the biggest economic boom in Roman history. Augustus once said “I found Rome a city of bricks and left it a city of marble.” Indeed, Augustus commissioned several large marble structures, some of which took 40 years to complete. There was evidence that massive marble blocks were constantly being moved through the city, causing congestion in the streets.  Marble-paved public spaces began to appear where marble was previously reserved for sacred temples and houses of the elite. The flat tax system really did create the economic boom as people turned to peace and business – Pax Romano.

The benefit of the Roman Empire was also free trade and freedom of religion until the late 3rd century AD.

Gold – Dow – & the Numbers


Curiousity-Question

QUESTION: Marty; You gave the resistance in the Dow at 20,158 and it stopped at 20,155. Gold you gave a buy signal at the close of 2016. You give us specific numbers to reach for a bounce or a collapse. Gold is rallying now on claims that the latest run up is attributed to the uncertainty about President Donald Trump’s political agenda. At the conference you warned about such a bounce if we did not close lower for 2016. This seems to be just an excuse to explain a technical rally. Can you shed any light on this?

Thanks.

BP

PS: see you in Hong Kong. Also thanks for not just talking one side of a market like the goldbugs.

DJ-5DwnTrndLines

GCNYNF-W 4 False Breaks 2-9-2017ANSWER:  In any market, if someone only speaks about one direction, that is not an analysis – it is propaganda for some reason or another. All markets rise and fall. You cannot find any market that simply moves in one direction. Even the Dow Jones during the Great Depression made four FALSE rallies exceeding the Downtrend Line just to still move lower. Markets routinely create bull and bear traps. Keep in mind that the most powerful move up or down always requires the slingshot. That is the fuel to may markets run. Rallies that struggle to push higher like we see in gold or the Dow right now are not indicative of breakouts NOR major highs. In gold, we have 4 false breakouts to date so we are getting close to the turn. That Downtrend Line stands at the 1312 area now on the weekly chart.

Woman Uterine WallThis is the whole purpose of the Reversal System. Markets are far more precise than people will accept. How many people want to blame me personally for market movements rather than try to understand that there just may be something hidden behind the appearance of randomness. Hey I wish I was wrong on the long-term direction of things. The future is not something I would like to be around for. I wish I could just say – Scottie! Beam me up! The people who hate the dollar and cheer gold and can see nothing else just want revenge against society for being short-changed in life. Get over it. You really need help. What you put out in hate comes back at you.

Last year, I warned the number was 1362 and the Target was May during 2016. (see February 2016). The long-term view is consistent. That was the fourth false move. The Reversals tell us if we are breaking out or not. Yelling, screaming, blaming everyone else for being wrong you might as well join the protests against Trump and dress up as dildos to make your point if you are male.

In that post last year I wrote “2017 [is] looking like the start of the trend where confidence collapses in government.” That seems to be an understatement. So we are on our way. It still looks like 2018 is the year of insanity.

Refugees in Gyms

The greatest risk of war does not come from Trump’s policies, but the collapse of the EU thanks to mismanagement. I just provided a fairly detailed report on the Eastern Borders of Europe and the risks that exist there. The EU is inviting World War III because they REFUSE to admit that the refugees have created a huge problem that is tearing Europe apart.  Remember what Caesar said? Divide & Conquer! The international media prefer to ignore that in many German regions local gyms have been confiscated and used as refugee shelters. Students have lost sports in many towns and this creates a number of difficulties and provokes social conflicts due to resentment.

GCNTNF-M 2003-2005 War

War-NickelsThe key to gold has never really be geopolitical. Gold rallies come really when confidence declines in terms if governments collapsing or the collapse of a monetary system. That can be due to a military invasion or a financial collapse. A crack in the euro will be more bullish on a sustainable basis than just a brief military confrontation when it come to gold in dollar terms. We can see from the above chart that when the Iraq invasion took place in March 2003, gold declined in dollars. Why? Because it was not seen as a formidable foe to upset the world economy. If you were in Iraq, gold was your hedge against the collapse of your currency. But they was not seen in terms of dollars outside of Iraq. Keep in mind that during World War II, nickel was more valuable than silver so the 5 cent coins were replaced with silver. It was World War I when commodities soared, but after that experience, they imposed price controls for World War II.

MILO: Trump Slims Down Lena Dunham. Is There Anything He Can’t Do?


The left will blame her fadding acting career on revenge from Trump not her lack of talent.

Virgil: The Left Whips Up a Climate of Violence — the Prime Target Is Donald Trump


If anyone remotely associated with the Republicans or Trump had done this they would be in jail for life is not executed and the Republicans disbanded as a political party..

Perdue, Cotton File RAISE Act to Reform Outdated Immigration System, Protect American Workers, Boost Wages


Lets hope they get it right not like what was done in 1965.

BACKSTAB: REPUBLICAN LEADERS FUNDED BY SOROS


Soros is in a panic as his program for work dominance falls apart; but with that looming defeat come desperation and so we must be vary vigilant to let him him start WW III in revenge.

Attorneys offer Free Help – But not to Americans


Attorney-Refugees

Attorneys pretend to stand up for what is right only when it is political and they have an agenda. They are hawking signs at JFK while they ignore the most corrupt legal system in America right there in New York City. How about cleaning up the legal system if you care so much about what is right?

Trump Tower Accord to Replace Plaza Accord?


PlazaAccord-1

We can probably count on one thing – the people from Goldman Sachs advising Trump will most likely do what they always do – assume the manipulation and “influence” is all that is needed to change the trend in the dollar. Donald Trump’s top trade adviser Peter Navarro has hit out at Germany and accused the country of gaining an unfair trade advantage from the “grossly undervalued” euro. He gave a lift to the euro but has signaled that when it comes to international trade, they have NEVER learned their lesson even once.

These people Trump has surrounded him with are absolute idiots if they think they can “talk”  the dollar down to help trade. Sorry, that is what Jim Baker did in creating the G5 and urging Europe to create the euro at the Plaza Accord in 1985. If they attempt to create the Trump Tower Accord to somehow fix currencies, they are going to find that the world monetary system is on the verge of collapse, which is why they are so desperate to create electronic money. The powers that be see eliminating cash as not just a tax bonanza, but it will eliminate bank runs because you cannot withdraw cash.

Rubin-Letter

On May 28th, 1997 just weeks before the Asian Currency Crisis erupted on July 1st, I wrote to Robert Rubin who was pulling the very same tactic – complain that the yen should be higher. Rubin, ex-Goldman Sachs, attempted to manipulate the dollar for trade. Instead of the real reform, they ALWAYS look for the easy way – lower the currency to sell more.

Geithneir-R

Future Secretary of the Treasury responded, Tim Geithner in a matter of days by June 4th. Nothing has ever changed. The words coming out of the Trump Administration show that we are going to have to cope with this same nonsense of attempting to talk the currency down all for trade. We do not live in a FIXED exchange rate system. These people think they can talk currency up or down and it will magically stay there. What we see ahead is chaos and volatility – not a more stable economy.

world-trade-2

First and FOREMOST – these people cannot even comprehend how trade works because all they see is dollar flow. Nobody sits at the docks counting the number of goods coming in. They look at the amount of money and ASSUME that reflects more or less goods imported.

warren-3

Talking the currencies up or down WILL NOT alter the course long-term. We are headed into a major currency crisis for as the euro goes off the boards, the dollar will soar and Trump will freak out about trade exactly as we did back in 1931. At that time, Roosevelt’s Brains Trust were all wrong. They were advising, as Merkel, to maintain the dollar for confidence yet that was imposing deflation. Roosevelt turned to a rogue economist everyone said was nuts – George Warren. It was Warren who showed Roosevelt that the devaluation of the dollar was the only way out. Against the advise of the “establishment” bankers, Roosevelt devalued the dollar and that reversed the stock market and the economy, although that lasted only until 1937.

Brains Trust 1933

The core of the first Roosevelt brains trust consisted of a group of Columbia law professors Adolf Berle (1895-1971), Raymond Moley (1886-1975), and Rexford Tugwell (1891-1979). Note that they were lawyers, not market investors, technicians, or economists. They knew how to get around the Constitution, not straighten out the economy. Still, these were the men who played a strategic role in shaping the legal policies of the First New Deal in 1933 – not the economics. They also never actually met together as a group. They each were solicited for their LEGAL opinions by Roosevelt Roosevelt expanded his Brains Trust adding James Paul Warburg (1896–1969) who was the son of the famous banker Paul Moritz Warburg (1868–1932). Nonethless, James lacked the banking experience of his father. Louis Dembitz Brandeis (1856–1941) was another lawyer who became a Supreme Court Justice. Another lawyer educated in Chicago also joined the Brains Trust, Harold Lill Ickes (1874–1952). There was the social-activist among the time whose philosphy was that created jobs was better than handouts and created the WPA – Harry Lloyd Hopkins (1890–1946). The first woman appointed was Frances Perkins (1882–1965) whose background was  chemistry and physics and at least had a vision compared to the lawyers and brought in the labor movement becoming the U.S. Secretary of Labor from 1933 to 1945. Another lawyer was Basil O’Connor (1892-1972) who went on to become head of the American Red Cr