Posted orginally on Jul 25, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Britain believes the next world war against an “axis of upheaval” will begin within three years. General Sir Roly Walker has issued a warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin will seek revenge against the Western powers who supported Ukraine. He believes China, North Korea, and Iran will form an alliance against the West by 2027 to 2028
This is in line with our computer models that have long insisted we would see a rise in both international and domestic conflicts throughout most nations by 2027 going into 2028. Britain is already quietly at war with Russia. Our UK array on the 10-year shows higher volatility into 2025.
I explained at the London Seminar that the Brits are extremely effective secretaries and we have a massive amount of data that helps us to predict what is to come. Interest rates rallied up five years to the downtrend line, but during times of war, interest rates must go up. The pound could eventually fall to 80 cents – it’s a confidence factor. As long as people anticipate war, you’re looking at capital outflows.
Everything must be viewed from a global perspective. I also explained in London that Taiwan may cease to exist as a nation by 2028. “A problem in one area is likely to trigger a sympathetic detonation in another and therefore it is a global problem looked at from different perspectives around the world,” Sir Walker stated. The true problem is that the NATO Neocons cannot resist the desire to engage in warfare. They have already set up the stage to attack China over Taiwan. It is not a matter of China becoming sympathetic to Russia, but rather, China has long felt that the international community is interfering in their personal affairs.
The British army will be ready to fight and kill the new formation of axis powers by 2027. Sir Walker believes the British army is outdated in troops and strength and needs to rebuild. Every nation is increasing military spending. There is a cycle to war and sadly it will soon be time for the next conflict.
The European Union has revoked Hungary of its right to host the next summit. The EU supposedly has a rotating presidency of council to maintain the appearance that each state has an equal say in the direction of the bloc. The truth of the matter is that the unelected elite in Brussels control all of Europe and will silence dissenters, as Hungray’s Viktor Orban recently learned.
The next EU summit was to take place August 28-29 was slated to be Hungary’s opportunity to share its ideas for matters like foreign policy with the rest of the bloc. EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell planned a “formal” council meeting on the exact dates of Hungary’s summit to undermine the country’s voice in the bloc. Now, Borrell is revoking Budapest’s ability to host the next meeting and moving it to Brussels.
“We have to send a signal, even if it is a symbolic signal, that being against the foreign policy of the European Union … has to have some consequences,” Borrell told reporters. His reasoning is that Brussels vehemently disapproved of Orban’s “peace mission” after he met with leaders in both Russia and China this July. Borrell believes “all member states — with one single exception — are very much critical about this behavior,” adding that he believed it was “appropriate to show this feeling and to call for the next foreign and defense council meetings in Brussels.”
Simply put, Orban wants to end the war in Ukraine, which is completely against the narrative of those in Brussels who want to promote the idea of Russian aggression to promote an escalation in war. “My job is to convince them to shift from the pro-war policy to a pro peace policy,” Orban said. “They believe that they can destroy the military [of the] Russians … but I don’t believe this at all, because I know the Russians, I know the Soviet Union, I know the Ukrainians. I’m belonging to a neighboring country. I know the whole context. It’s impossible to find a solution on the battlefield, we will lose every day thousands of innocent people,” Orban told CNBC, also adding that “human life is the most precious thing we can lose,” citing the thousands who have already died in this endless war.
Add to this the trade tensions between Ukraine and Hungary. Hungary and Slovakia are exempt from the EU ban on Russian crude oil. These landlocked neighbors are to receive oil through the Druzhba pipeline, but Ukraine has prevented these nations from receiving shipments. Lukoil may be the main supplier using this line, but Russneft, Tatneft, and Gazprom also utilize this line, leading Ukraine to intervene.
“The EU sanctions, which we have disputed on several occasions, and which in this case have again been shown to have a greater negative impact on Slovakia and the EU than on Russia itself, clearly state that Slovakia has an exemption for oil imports until the end of the year,” Slovak Juraj Blanár explained in a joint-statement he made to the European Commission with his Hungarian counterpart, Péter Szijjártó. “It is strange that a country aspiring to be integrated with the EU is seriously jeopardising the energy supplies of two member states,” Péter Szijjártó commented. Will the European Commission side with its members or Ukraine? What is the benefit of being in a “union” that does not support you in any form?
Szijjártó said that Ukraine should forget the blocked €6.5 billion in EU aid as they will not vote to help Ukraine as it threatens their energy supply. Hungary has been demonized by Brussels for blocking additional aid to Ukraine, with neocon Borrell still pushing to send Ukraine €1.4 billion by the beginning of August. There is no European Union. There is a European authority within the pretend union that controls all members.
Low-income Americans are in such dire straits due to the elevated cost of living that lawmakers are making changes to the tax code. No, naturally, the politicians are not voting to decrease taxes for those who can barely get by. Instead, they’re permitting Americans to pull a mere $1,000 out of their retirement accounts without penalty.
Those withdrawing emergency funds from a 401K will need to explain their hardship to their employer, but employers do not need to approve the withdrawal. The government will tax the $1,000 if it is not paid back within three years and no additional emergency withdrawals may be taken out until the money is paid back in full.
The economy is shifting into a world of haves and have-nots as the middle class diminishes. A January 2024 survey found that 60% of Americans had less than $500 in liquidity, with only 12% possessing over 12%. The debt vortex is unforgiving and all too many Americans have become trapped in a cycle of perpetually servicing new debt, similar to our Federal Reserve.
A Vanguard study found that 3.6% of the 5 million retirement accounts on record made an emergency withdrawal in 2023, moving upward from 2.8% the year prior. Bank of America and Fidelity reported similar findings last year on a quarterly basis. These people may be subjected to a 10% tax due to the early distribution because chances are they will be unlikely to pay back the funds. Credit card debthas reached a historic high in the US among every income level, so this last resort option has become unavoidable for many.
This program is an insult to the American people who contribute to our system with nothing in return. These same people who do not have a mere $1,000 for an emergency are paying into the giant Ponzi scheme that is Social Security with each paycheck. They must pay for Medicare and Medicare even if they will never use the services. They’re likely subject to an income tax depending on their state regardless of income level. If accounting for a population of 335 million, the average American has paid about $522 in taxes toward Ukraine alone. The US is paying about $1,700 per month per illegal migrant welcomed in by the open border policy.
Then Uncle Sam comes around every April and gives the lowest paid Americans a tax refund check, failing to acknowledge that they preventing those Americans from earning interest on that money that they desperately needed. It is a grand lie that the socialist-leaning politicians care about the working man when their social programs and handouts guarantee tax increases on everyone. It is a shame that those attempting to do right by society and not leaning entirely on government assistance are punished by our tax code.
Posted originally on Jul 19, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser announced that the nation banned conservative Compact Magazine for allegedly inciting hatred. Authorities raided properties in Brandenburg, Hesse, Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt to confiscate evidence and assets.
“This magazine incites hatred against Jews, against people with a history of migration and against our parliamentary democracy in an unspeakable manner,” the minister said, calling the publication “a mouthpiece of the far-right extremist scene.” Conservative politicians are calling the move “a serious blow to the freedom of the press.”
Now, why do we never hear the term “far-left extremist” mentioned in the news? Every conservative politician receives the “far-right extremist” label to invoke hatred and fear. Every news outlet across the globe is calling this ban a first step in outright banning “far-right extremist” views. Compact was associated with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, the only German party against open borders, climate change, and ongoing funding of external wars.
Governments globally would like to stifle conservative voices. There is no place for dissent in this increasingly tyrannical world. Germany has sent 35,000 of its own troops to die in Ukraine for a war that does not involve the German people. They plan to open a headquarters of sorts to help direct the war in Ukraine from Germany. Women have been asked to conscribe to the war efforts. They have decimated the agricultural sector through their green agenda and want to de-platform the thousands of farmers who have attempted to protest throughout the year. Crime is at a 15-year high, and the population is rising to unsustainable levels. They demand that the media remain quiet on all of these issues.
Governments have become the judge and the juror. They are creating an underground culture of dissent and disorder among otherwise law-abiding citizens who simply wish to see their nation restored. Socrates sees Germany descending into a recession that will bottom in nominal terms in 2028 but will extend into 2030. They will increase their efforts to silence those who disagree with the direction of the nation as the economy turns down.
Posted originally on Jul 15, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Confidence in the very structure of the nation has been shaken amid this private wave where all trust in the government has been lost. A new Pew Research Center poll found that 72% of Americans believe the United States – the land of the free – is no longer a good example of democracy.
Those 72% say that America was once a good example of a democracy for other nations to follow, with only 19% still trusting in its structure. Americans over 50 trust in democracy a bit more than younger generations (11% vs 4%) likely because they are less likely to face the new reality of our broken economy where the American Dream is no longer attainable.
Those most closely aligned to America in terms of economics are more likely to say the US is no longer a good example of democracy (Canada 67%, Japan 65%, UK 63%). Younger generations everywhere now believe America was never a good example of democracy as they have only seen the nation in a state of geopolitical upheaval.
A separate poll with information from Pew Research Center, National Election Studies, Gallup, ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times, and CNN surveys, Americans were if they trust the government. Trust heightened, in line with the ECM, in 1964 under President Johnson with a trust rating of 77%. Trust plummeted when President Nixon became the first president to resign in 1974, with the moving average then standing at 36%. Individual polls then showed confidence moving to a new low of 25% by the end of President Carter’s administration, in line with the economy as always.
Trust in government then peaked at the beginning of George W. Bush’s term in office, with individual polls rising to 60% in 2001 and overall stats hitting 54%. Now, 2001 marked the 9/11 terrorist attack on the Twin Towers that shook the nation at its core, spreading a wave of patriotism across the United States. Everyone trusted that the government would seek revenge and keep the nation safe from future attacks. We permitted countless laws to pass, like the Patriot Act, because we trusted the government to protect us.
By the end of George W. Bush’s term, no one knew what we were doing in the Middle East and were questioning the “weapons of mass destruction” premise. Individual polls plummeted from 60% to a mere 17% in 2008, with overall sentiments not faring much better at 24%. Trust in government has never surpassed 30% on either poll since.
The moving average of trust in the US government now sits at 22%. Politics have never been more divided. The majority of the country questions in the president is mentally fit to serve. Congress is blatantly corrupt. The coronavirus pandemic changed everything and shook the nation as badly as 9/11, but the people ran from government rather than towards it.
Our computer indicates the American economy subtly slipped into a recession, and things will worsen until 2028. We find this same phenomenon of trust in government declining globally and it is all in line with the Economic Confidence Model. Distrust will only grow as economic conditions worsen. By 2032, as indicated by the models, we will have a chance to rebuild and regrow at the end of the Sixth Wave, which will be the equivalent to the fall of ancient Rome.
Posted originally on Jul 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I find it remarkable that your model has always been correct in predicting the economy’s direction. This latest US inflation number shows that it was subsiding, cooling down to the slowest pace since 2021, right in turn with your Economic Confidence Model. Treasuries rallied on expectations that the Fed might cut rates. It seems so obvious to a blind man that your model has done what no economist has been able to do for decades. Why does academia refuse to credit you for your discovery?
SH
ANSWER: The 1960s was a wild time when I was still in high school. In Economics class, they said everything is random, and there is no definitive business cycle, so we can manipulate the economy to prevent recessions. That was the Keynesian economics. When I went to Physics class, they emphasized that nothing was random. I concluded the someone was not telling the truth and it seemed to be in the Economics class.
For you see, this was the period when the fixed exchange rate was collapsing. It was the end of Bretton Woods, and this was a confusing period for what people call today the “Everything Bubble.” Back during the 1960s, it was the “Everything Crash.” I saw everything rise to a peak and then crash from stocks and bonds to precious metals, real estate, and collectibles. This forged my understanding of the world economy, and everything was connected.
The pressure on Brettone Woods actually began with rising inflation. President Kennedy was forced to remove silver from the coinage starting in 1965. The last silver coins produced came with the peak of that ECM wave in 1964, and by 1968, that saw the first major crash in the gold standard.
Back then, the 1968 financial crisis forced the two-tier gold market where gold began to trade openly in London in 1968.
Gold rallied to $44, finally forcing the first crash in the gold standard. The solution was to allow a two-tier market, where the fixed rate was between countries, and the private market was allowed to float.
I remember well that in 1970, just BEFORE the fixed exchange rate collapsed in August 1971, gold fell on the London market to $34.70 BELOW the official fixed rate after it had risen to $44 in 1969, which forced the first crack in the fixed exchange rate system.
The pressure persisted, but gold fell below the official rate in 1970, and then, by August 1971, President Nixon was forced to close the gold window. In October 1973, the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) announced that it was implementing a total oil embargo against the countries that had supported Israel at any point during the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
It was the bias of academia in Economics that followed Marx and then Keynes. In both theories, economists advocated intervention. Thus, economists marketed themselves as all-powerful, and they could direct the government on how to better manage the economy to eliminate the business cycle.
To this very day, academia refuses to accept the business cycle, for they always want to preach EQUALITY and fairness and constantly point to the disparity of wealth as if everyone should have exactly the same. So, they will NEVER accept my research because most of the academics follow these interventionist theories. It’s not something personal, it is just the way academia operates.
Posted originally on Jul 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Inefficient politicians consistently cite additional taxation as the solution to their nation’s economic troubles. The housing crisis in Canada is has spread to every province. Instead of addressing availability, the disproportionate demand brought on by multiplying the nation with migrants, or any of the countless fiscal policies that have contributed to inflation, the Canadian government believes it is the duty of citizens to subsidize their wealth as a temporary solution.
The Trudeau Administration has been trying to paint the housing crisis as a conflict between the social-economic classes. All those greedy citizens who saved for homes are preventing new homeowners from entering the market. Trudeau basically said this when appearing on the podcast Generation Squeeze, an organization that is pushing to add an annual surtax on homes over C$1 million. They believe houses between C$1 million to C$1.5 million, even if a primary residence, should face a 0.2% surtax that would eventually rise to 0.5%. Homes over C$2 million would face a 1% surtax.
What about older Canadians who have been residing in their family homes for decades? They may not necessarily be rich but they purchased when the landscape was different. Trudeau said those who “scrimped and saved” simply fail to understand that the younger generation can no longer do the same due to the economic environment he helped to create.
“GOVERNMENT BUREAUCRATS DON’T BUILD HOMES!” – Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre
I mentioned in a separate post that 13.5% of young Canadians under 24 cannot find entry-level work. Unemployment is on the rise and young people cannot afford to save what little they have. All Canadians are feeling the constraints of inflation, with household debt rising to over 100% of GDP and the debt service ratio surpassing 15.22%. People are paying for the luxury of even having debt.
This thoughtless plan does not count for the fact that home prices are continuing to rise. C$1 million may sound high, but the average home in British Columbia is around C$965,447, with those in Ontario facing an average price of C$853,915. The average home cost around C$657,145 across all provinces in 2023, but that average was only C$391,820 just 10 years ago. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) believes the average home will reach C$$746,410 by next year.
This is not a tax on the wealthy, though that would not be a solution, rather, this is a tax on hardworking Canadians who are struggling to maintain what they have left. This tax is in addition to the countless other grabs that the government is expecting from homeowners. There are federal initiatives that currently spend billions on new construction, such as the Canada Housing Infrastructure Fund, which spent C$6 billion toward new construction. What’s the point of increasing the supply when you’re increasing the overall population more rapidly? Trudeau did not offer ANY other solution during his interview because he had none to offer.
Posted originally on Jul 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
POLITICO has reported that the Paris prosecutor’s office confirmed that they have launched a criminal investigation after a preliminary inquiry. The investigation has targeted Marine Le Pen’s previous presidential bid in 2022 with allegations of embezzlement, forgery, fraud, and a candidate on an election campaign accepting a loan. It is curious that such criminal prosecution of candidates are always by the LEFT against the RIGHT.
Brazil’s federal police recommended that former President Jair Bolsonaro be criminally charged in a scheme to embezzle jewelry he received as gifts from foreign leaders while president, according to two people close to the investigation, adding another major legal challenge for Mr. Bolsonaro.
Bill and Hillary Clinton took furniture from the White House in 2001. The Clintons actually returned more than $28,000 worth of items, which, they said, they “thought were personal gifts given to them and not to the White House.”
CBS reported: “The server Clinton used as secretary of state contained “several dozen emails containing classified information determined by the [intelligence community] element to be at the CONFIDENTIAL, SECRET, and TOP SECRET/SAP levels,” the inspector general, Charles McCullough, wrote in the letter, which was first reported by Fox News.”
Between taking government furniture and then returning it, establishing it was government property, not theirs, and then adding the classified documents on a private server for which the RIGHT did not criminally prosecute Hillary as the LEFT has done to Trump over the same issue.
Well Done!
This is the way to destroy civilization and create tyranny, as the LEFT will always go to extremes, for at the core of their philosophies lies the fact that they cannot tolerate freedom for people to do things that they object to.
We are witnessing the weaponization of the rule of law for political purposes on a global scale. That is destroying world civilization. This is intimidating people to stay away, for they will only be criminally prosecuted on allegations that once made, the press will pronounce them guilty without a trial or due process of law. The mere allegation is good enough to destroy anyone who dares to challenge the LEFT. This is what 2032 is all about. We are witnessing the complete destruction of Western Society at the most fundamental level. When you destroy the rule of law, everything crumbles to dust before your eyes. The very meaning of “civilization” is we settle disputes in a civilized manner. Tear down this foundation, and all that is left is UNCIVILIZED behavior, including revolutions
Posted originally on Jul 9, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
I have often been asked the question, WHY did the Greek denomination of the stater comply with the 8.6 frequency of the Economic Confidence Model? The silver stater minted at Corinth was 8.6 grams (0.28 oz) in weight, which was divided into three silver drachmae of 2.9 grams (0.093 oz). Its rival city-state was Athens, and their silver didrachm (two drachmae) weighed 8.6 grams (0.28 oz), while their Athenian silver tetradrachm (four drachmae) weighed 17.2 grams (0.55 oz).
What we do know is that the ancient Babylonians calculated the area of a circle by taking three times the square of its radius, which gave a value of pi = 3. One Babylonian tablet (ca. 1900–1680 BC) indicates a value of 3.125 for π, which is a closer approximation.
The Rhind Papyrus (ca.1650 BC) gives us insight into Advanced Ancient Egyptian mathematics. The Egyptians calculated the area of a circle using a formula that gave an approximate value of 3.1605 for π (a 0.6% margin error, extremely good even by modern standards) 4000 years before that value was fixed at 3.14. We know that the Great Pyramid’s estimated dimensions are based on Phi, which only varies by 0.025%. A pyramid based on Pi varies by only 0.1% from the Great Pyramid’s estimated dimensions.
The first Greek calculation of π was done by Archimedes of Syracuse (287–212 BC), who was one of the greatest mathematicians of the ancient world. Archimedes approximated the area of a circle by using the Pythagorean Theorem to find the areas of two regular polygons. Since the actual area of the circle lies between the areas of the inscribed and circumscribed polygons, the areas of the polygons give upper and lower bounds for the area of the circle. Archimedes knew that he had not found the value of π but only an approximation within those limits. This way, Archimedes showed that π is between 3 1/7 and 3 10/71.
Even when we look at the coinage of Syracuse, located in Sicily, we see the same standard. This is a Dekadrachm, which is 10 drachms of 4.3 grams each. We have no ancient text to resolve this mystery. It certainly appears that the coinage was based upon this understanding of Pi.
It remains a mystery why their monetary system was established at 8.6 grams. No accounts indicate why they chose this weight. I can only say that perhaps they intentionally made this a Pi derivative.
Prehistory is the period of human history between the first known use of stone tools by hominins c. 3.3 million years ago and the beginning of recorded history with the invention of writing systems. There has long been a problem with academia in every field. Once they establish a belief, they simply defend it to the last dying man. They have done that with Historia Augusta insisting that it was fake because they did not hear of certain names of Roman Emperors during the 3rd century AD. Coins, such as Saturninus and Proculus, were discovered, which clearly established that academics were wrong. To this day, even Wikipedia claims its authenticity is questionable. “The true authorship of the work, its actual date, its reliability and its purpose have long been matters for controversy by historians and scholars…”
The NETFLIX show of Graham Hancock and his Ancient Apocalypse is an excellent show where he presents his “pseudoarchaeological theories” about the alleged existence of an advanced civilization active during the last ice age. What I can say is that Scientists have recorded five significant ice ages throughout the Earth’s history: the Huronian (2.4-2.1 billion years ago), Cryogenian (850-635 million years ago), Andean-Saharan (460-430 mya), Karoo (360-260 mya) and Quaternary (2.6 mya-present). In addition, there have been about a dozen major glaciations that have occurred over the past 1 million years. These appear to be natural cyclical events that also align with the Earth’s passage around the universe. The largest such event peaked around 650,000 years ago and lasted for 50,000 years.
Hancock’s theory of civilization prehistory being destroyed by the last Ice Age, also appears to align with the legends of the Great Flood that in the Bible is said to be Noah. That most recent glaciation period or Ice Age, reached peak conditions some 18,000 years ago before giving way to the interglacial Holocene epoch 11,700 years ago. There are accounts of a great flood that appear in virtually all the earliest recordings of history.
The story of Noah’s Ark landing in what is a region of Turkey known in ancient times as Phrygia is even celebrated on Roman coins. The Ark depicted on this coin from the 2nd century AD even has the name inscribed “NOAH” on the vessel in Greek. It is entirely possible that this story dates back to the 10,000 BC era and represents the previous civilization of which Hancock has concluded existed.
What we do know is that the ancient is often built upon the ruins of the previous. The ancient city of Troy has several layers. The orientation and dispositions of the Sphinx, the Giza pyramids, and the Nile River relative to one another on the ground accurately reflect the constellations of Leo, Orion (specifically, Orion’s Belt), and the Milky Way, respectively. That does NOT mean that they were constructed 10,000 BC, but something was there previously. The Sphinx does show what appears to be water erosion marking from that period when the area was tropical. It cannot be ruled out that it was originally a lion recarved by the Egyptians thousands of years later.
About eight civilizations collapsed, with the exception of Egypt post-1250 BC. This was caused by a major shift in climate that led to droughts, which resulted in widespread famine that inspired migrations/invasions. This event of 1177 BC was the Bronze Age equivalent to the fall of Rome, for they both were followed by a Dark Age.
Many have attributed this collapse of the Bronze Age to the Sea Peoples, which were most likely northern Mediterranean mass migrants due to the colder climate in Europe. Cline has assembled a nice assembly of sources but missed the climate change. He assumed there was a migration southward. However, we can see that the first dip to the cold came about 1,800 years ago. We can see that the all-time high temperature was about 3,300 years ago.
The collapse of the Bronze Age was mostly complete by about 1100-1000 BC. Our computer has identified a 1720-year cycle beginning in the Dark Ages with the fall of Rome in 476 AD when the last pretend Emperor reigned (Romulus Augustus (575-476AD)). Our model highlighted the cycle between the Dark Ages of 1720 years, which brings us to 1244 BC — right on target for the beginning of the collapse of civilization.
All other civilizations collapsed, with the exception of Egypt post 1250 BC, but even that was greatly diminished. In school, they taught the linear version of the Sea Peoples who invaded to destroy. That storyline has long been way too simple, and Eric Cline brought a new perspective, linking it to drought and famine and the Sea Peoples, which he believed was more of a mass migration southward.
However, in addition to that, there is a major cycle on a fractal basis, which is 3096 years. Our computer has projected that there would have been a warming period of about 10,465 years again, which would have probably coincided with the thaw of the last Ice Age, which may have produced the Great Flood.
The Tropic Belt has been gradually moving northward since 1970. There is debate over what is even causing that. Nevertheless, we now understand that even the Tropic Belt is subject to cyclical movement, which may also explain the shift from a lush green environment as late as 6,000 years ago, which then turned into a desert in the Sahara. Curiously, this is about the length of recorded history. This, too, may be contributing to the illusion of global warming created by man.
All I can say is that the monetary system to have aligned with our 8,6 ECM frequency might be that this was ancient knowledge that has also been lost. They did not have TV back then and spent much time mapping the heavens. They may have discovered that Pi was indeed the secret cycle of the Universe.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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