Posted originally on Sep 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The U.S. economy added fewer-than-expected new jobs last month because most economists still refuse to comprehend that there is such a thing as the business cycle. Here we have the Economic Confidence Model I explained, which I discovered while researching at the Firestone Library at Princeton University. That is NOT included in Socrates, in which I merely taught Socrates how to identify cycles, let it go forward without human intervention, and come back to tell me what it found.
Socrates agreed with the Economic Confidence Model that the economy would turn down in 2024 going into 2025. This Jobs Number came with big downward revisions to recent summer tallies, suggesting that the labor market if cooling and that this is likely to support the case for a larger Federal Reserve rate. What is stunning is that these people cheer on rate cuts, but the rate cuts come ONLY with recessionary trends. This is the second straight month of downward numbers since the ECM turned in May.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that a net 142,000 new jobs were created in August, a number well above the downward revised July total of 89,000 but still well south of this year’s monthly average of around 200,000. At the end of the day, it will most likely be revised to be lower than July. The low may not be seen until the first quarter of 2025. After that, we must be concerned about war.
While the Computer has projected that Trump should win the 2024 election, he added RFK, and now Musk has to have Washington up in arms. The Neocons will fight for their life, and everything is on the table. These people do not care about the country, the economy, or the people.
The other scenario that concerns me is that Putin is the only person holding back World War III. With this insane invasion of Russia by Ukraine at the direction of NATO, the intended consequence, or pretend unintended consequence, is the overthrow of Putin by the hardline Russian Neocons. This year, 2024, is a Directional Change for Russia. Even if electing Trump with RFK, we could still have a war if they overthrow Putin.
Posted originally on Sep 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The Bank of Canada voted to cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25%, marking the third consecutive rate cut. Inflation has allegedly slowed to 2.5% as of July, and Governor Tiff Macklem said that was reason enough to drop rates to attract investment.
“If inflation continues to ease broadly in line with our July forecast, it is reasonable to expect further cuts in our policy rate,” Governor Tiff Macklem said in a prepared opening statement. Canada’s GDP grew at a faster rate than anticipated during Q2 after growing 2.1% vs the 1.8% forecast. Unemployment remains high at around 6.4%.
The bank acknowledges that these cuts will not impact the housing market. “With the share of CPI components growing above 3% now around its historical norm, there is little evidence of broad-based price pressures. But shelter price inflation is still too high. It remains the biggest contributor to overall inflation, despite some early signs of easing.”
Will these rate cuts cause any major changes in Canada’s economy? Absolutely not. In 2016 under the Liberal government, the total private debt of the Canadian public exceeded the total national GDP for the first time in history after reaching 100.7%. Canada’s national debt spiked to $1.501 billion USD in March of 2024, a $1.423.3 billion USD increase from March 2023. Gross debt was 117.2% of GDP in 2021, above pre-pandemic levels at 105.6^ in 2019. Half of Canada’s debt comes from the federal government while the other half is from provinces and local governments who have been given the green light to continue spending.
Canada is deeply indebted and now ranks the third-highest nation in terms of household debt in the world. I reported in July how household debt exceeded 100% of GDP with no signs of slowing under the Trudeau Administration that recklessly spends with no end in sight. Switzerland and Australia are the only nations exceeding Canada’s debt levels. Government debt has SOARED in recent years, now exceeding C$1,139.98. This figure was only C$721.36 billion in 2020 before Trudeau used the pandemic as an excuse to bulk up social programs.
The population of Canada has exploded to the highest level in history thanks to open border policies. Canada, like all the other Build Back Better nations, has the funds to support every foreign interest and war while placing their citizens last. Rate cuts can do absolutely nothing when the government is borrowing against future generations.
Posted originally onSep 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
I commend the restraint displayed by this Canadian citizen. Failed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attempted to campaign to workers in Ontario who were utterly underwhelmed by his presence. Trudeau praised the 25% tariffs he placed on Chinese steel. “So that’s going to help me keep my job?” the citizen remarked.
No, tariffs NEVER work and the tariff on steel has only led China to retaliate. Trudeau’s Administration believes China’s “intentional, state-directed policy of overcapacity” is undermining Canada’s ability to compete and they plan to slap a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum from China, as well as a 100% tariff on EVs. China is the third-largest supplier of steel to Canada and Trudeau believes these tariffs “level the playing field for Canadian workers.”
China claims that this “will damage trade and economic cooperation” and “violated the WTO rules.” Over a million Canadians are actively seeking jobs and unemployment remains high. The central bank may have cut rates citing lowering inflation, but Canadian families certainly are not seeing their costs lowered. Canadians are struggling to find housing or to maintain the costs of their current homes. Demand far outweighs supply and the newcomers from foreign nations have tipped the scales.
Trudeau brushes off the comment from the citizen who is outraged that he pays 40% in taxes and lives the same life as his unemployed neighbor. This is how the world works under socialistic policies where equality voids hard work from the equation and does not amount to a better life. Canadians are watching their tax dollars being redistributed to those on social welfare programs. Billions are sent to Ukraine despite Canada having ZERO involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war. Healthcare and basic necessities have become luxuries under Justin Trudeau.
The people who created the problem cannot solve it. Canadians have watched their economy decline under Trudeau, not to mention a complete alteration of their society due to a rapid change in demographics. “I think you are only here for another year, we won’t see you around in another year,” said the steel plant employee told Justin Trudeau.
Trudeau continues to show no empathy toward the average Canadian. “He’s got the donuts! Excellent!” Trudeau said to end the conversation. Sorry that you cannot afford housing or to see a doctor despite giving the government nearly half of your paycheck. Let them eat donuts.
Posted originally on the CTH on September 4, 2024 | Sundance
Watch the first 10 to 12 minutes. Or watch more if you like, but from my position (having spent 15 years calling this out day-by-day as it takes place in real time) the first ten minutes are pretty cool to see being said eloquently and publicly.
Economist Eric Weinstein says he doesn’t know if Trump “will be allowed” to become president, says the goal of the World Order is to have two candidates who are both acceptable to them. “Democracy was the illusion of choice…” “You had two candidates that were both acceptable to the international order… We called that democracy. And so, democracy was the illusion of choice. That’s called magician’s choice.” “Magician’s choice in the primaries, and then you’d have the duopoly field, two candidates, either of which was acceptable, and you could actually afford to hold an election and the populace would vote.” “Donald Trump broke through the primary structure.” “They learned their lesson. You cannot afford to have candidates who are not acceptable to the international order.”
I disagree with the premise that Trump will not be allowed, because from my position I am watching the Deep State assemble insurance policies against a Trump victory actually taking place. President Trump will be allowed to become president, but what happens from the election day forward is totally unknown. WATCH:
CTH archives are full of the evidence for the “illusion of choice,” including the splitter strategy that Weinstein describes. It’s the primary reason for our early and unwavering support of Donald J Trump. There never has been any alternative.
Posted originally on Sep 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The European Union has fined Hungary for failing to accept its delegated quota of migrants. Hungary has refused to pay the fine €200 million fine issued by the European Court of Justice (ECJ). Will this be the issue that finally breaks ties between Hungary and the European Union?
Hungary is constantly at odds with the elite in Brussels who wish to impose a one-Europe government over all member states. The EU has taken over trade, currency, and domestic law for each member. In June, the ECJ found the nation guilty of “unprecedented and exceptionally serious breach of EU law” for limiting the number of asylum seekers. “That conduct constitutes a serious threat to the unity of EU law, which has an extraordinarily serious impact both on private interests, particularly the interests of asylum seekers, and on the public interest,” the judges said.
“It seems that illegal migrants are more important to the Brussels bureaucrats than their own European citizens,” Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated. None of Orban’s policies align with Brussels and the EU has been actively ostracizing Hungary for its independent positions.
The fee has already been claimed as the European Commission plans to deduct the 200 million euros from Hungary’s portion of the European Union budget. Worsening relations, the ECJ is considering placing a 1 million euro DAILY fine on the member nation for ignoring the ruling, in addition to the 200 million it has already claimed.
The European Union is actively destroying Hungary’s economy. The EU has repeatedly sided with Ukraine over the ongoing oil dispute. Orban has been the target of unwarranted hate since he met with both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin to hold peace talks. EU diplomats and foreign affair officials boycotted Hungary’s rotation to hold summits and discuss its ideas for the bloc. They claim each state is a member but they are willing to completely ignore and silence member states who do not blindly comply with Brussels.
Orban does not want to fund Ukraine or involve itself in the war against Russia – strike one.“My job is to convince them to shift from the pro-war policy to a pro peace policy,” Orban said. “They believe that they can destroy the military [of the] Russians … but I don’t believe this at all, because I know the Russians, I know the Soviet Union, I know the Ukrainians. I’m belonging to a neighboring country. I know the whole context. It’s impossible to find a solution on the battlefield, we will lose every day thousands of innocent people,” Orban told CNBC, also adding that “human life is the most precious thing we can lose,” citing the thousands who have already died in this endless war.
In addition to this, there are trade tensions between Ukraine and Hungary. Hungary and Slovakia are exempt from the EU ban on Russian crude oil. These landlocked neighbors are to receive oil through the Druzhba pipeline, but Ukraine has prevented these nations from receiving shipments. Lukoil may be the main supplier using this line, but Russneft, Tatneft, and Gazprom also utilize this line, leading Ukraine to intervene. Hungary is blocking aid to Ukraine as a result, but Brussels has repeatedly told Hungary it is in the wrong.
There is no European Union. There is a European authority within the pretend union that controls all members. The United Kingdom was wise to leave the EU when they had the opportunity, as this power-hungry bloc WILL become more tyrannical as the European economy turns down, war turns up, and member states begin to question the entire alliance. One must ask who actually benefits from the European Union’s regulations and absence of protections.
Posted originally on Sep 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |
A football team has never endorsed a political candidate. Pennsylvania is a battleground state where the Democrats are losing favor, so it was peculiar to see advertisements around the city of Philadelphia stating: “KAMALA: Official candidate of the Philadelphia Eagles.”
The posters featured a cartoon image of Kamala Harris in Eagles attire. The link beneath these advertisements mentioned the Philadelphia Eagles, very convincingly leading one to believe that the football team had put its full support behind Kamala. Again, this is extremely strange, as an NFL team would likely not alienate a portion of its audience by becoming involved in politics.
We are aware counterfeit political ads are being circulated and are working with our advertising partner to have them removed.
The Philadelphia Eagles franchise was equally perplexed by the situation. “We are aware counterfeit political ads are being circulated and are working with our advertising partner to have them removed,” the team said in an official statement. Philadelphia’s Office of Transportation and Infrastructure Systems said that the incident is being investigated as an act of vandalism.
Yet, Donald Trump has come under fire for simply using songs that could so much as hint that an artist or organization is supporting his run for president. The Foo Fighters R.E.M., Adele, Guns N’ Roses, Neil Young, and others have threatened the Trump campaign with lawsuits for playing their music in ads or during rallies. It is legalto use songs at rallies if they obtain the proper licensing, but the artists successfully make headlines by shouting that the other side is misleading voters by feigning their support. This situation goes far beyond using a song as the ad clearly states that the NFL team is supporting the Harris campaign AND they created an Eagles-themed website to entice voters.
The city is unable to confirm if the Harris campaign is responsible for the vandalism. They’re removing the posters and not speaking out against Harris or her supporters. The persons responsible are likely affiliated with a grassroots campaign supported by elite Democrat philanthropists who have made it their mission to infiltrate our elections. The propaganda is simply everywhere.
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