Posted originally on Sep 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

The average French pensioner receives a larger payout than working-aged adults. France has one of the highest replacement rate packages of any OECD nation at around 74% of average earnings. The French government spends an astounding 14% of GDP on the unsustainable pension system.

The average pension in France is around €1,626 gross per month, and pensioners earn around 2% more than the working adults propping up those pensions. The average American pensioner earns about a sixth less than working adults, UK retirees earn about a fifth less, while Australians earn around a third less than their working counterparts, according to Fortune. The amount demanded by retirees has increased proportionally over recent years, as have taxes on the working public, who now pay 8.55% of their income into the pension system.

Widespread pension reform protests took place in 2023 when we saw protesters attempt to burn down the BlackRock office in Paris after the retirement age was raised from 62 to 64. “The meaning of this action is quite simple. We went to the headquarters of BlackRock to tell them: the money of workers, for our pensions, they are taking it,” a protestor told a CNN affiliate. The protest was organized and the message was clear. The Parisians are not allowing government mismanagement to change their retirement plans. They have been promised an easy retirement and paid into the system. The government has been unable to fulfill its promises and the people perceive any reforms as an unfair betrayal.

The deficit for pensions is estimated to grow to €15 billion by 2035 and then to around €30 billion a couple of years later. The European Union requires member states to maintain a budget deficit below 3% but only 17 of the 27 members have met that target. French Economy Minister Eric Lombard is eager to lower the public deficit, aiming for 5.4% of GDP in 2025, followed by 3% in 2029.

France is facing a fiscal crisis of its own making. The government has consistently failed to address the core structural issues, instead relying on higher taxes and superficial spending cuts, which only serve to undermine economic growth. The public deficit, now surpassing 5.6% of GDP, is spiraling out of control, and the government’s projections to bring it under the EU’s arbitrary 3% threshold by 2029 are nothing more than wishful thinking. History has shown that governments never truly cut spending—they merely shift the burden through taxation, stifling private sector expansion.

This is why politicians want war with Russia as a diversion. They desperately need an excuse in the face of a crumbling monetary system. No one is buying government debt. The solution is to rob the pension funds to eliminate the need to issue bonds to cover expenses. That move will only undermine confidence in the EU and result in further civil unrest. Negative interest rates have robbed savers of income since 2014, but the world refuses to move away from Keynesian economics.

France and the rest of the Western world have a growing aging population paired with a massive decline in birth rates. These nations attempted to open borders to compensate for the lack of workers, but instead, the public became saddled with more debt as they were forced to pay for the newcomers.

Nothing is more inflationary than war, and Macron is eager to send off French troops to Ukraine as he closely aligns with Brussels to spur on the next major war. Confidence will decline, capital will flee, and interest expenditures will continue to rise. France risks a debt crisis that will only accelerate the collapse of the EU’s financial system. As I’ve warned before, the trend is clear: governments refuse to reform until they are left with no choice. The question is not if, but when, France will face the reckoning of its fiscal mismanagement.

Posted Sep 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong | 

Deputy Minister Agila Barzdienė believes that joining the European Union was the economic “reset” the nation needed. On the surface, Lithuania’s GDP has risen since joining the EU in 2004, but this is not the product of some magical European design.

“Economically, it’s an obvious leap. Lithuania’s GDP has almost doubled, foreign direct investment has increased eightfold, exports have increased sixfold. Wages have increased sixfold, and inflation has been kept at 2%,” Barzdienė stated. “For example, in 2004 the average Lithuanian could not afford a good cup of coffee in Milan, but today he does not feel the difference between Vilnius, London or Lisbon, and this is an important indicator. Now the average pre-tax salary is about 2000 euros, after that it is 1300-1400 euros. By 2030 we hope to reach 90% of the EU average salary.”

The growth was largely the result of capital inflows, cheap credit, and foreign investment chasing “new” markets after the fall of the Soviet Union. The EU absorbed these nations, promising prosperity if they would only surrender their sovereignty. Lithuania has benefited in the short run, but it is now just as handcuffed to Brussels’ mandates. Net Zero policies, sanctions, and globalist directives all come with hidden costs. The Baltic states are exposed to energy insecurity after Brussels cut off Russian supplies, and yet their leaders cheer for policies that undermine their own industries. They are also on the frontlines for NATO expansion as the bloc attempts to corner Russia.

Lithuania has drastically increased defense spending in recent years as the nation braces for an alleged Russian invasion. “The government is striving to keep at least 1.3 billion euros from the defense budget (in 2026 it will be 5-6% of GDP) in the national economy. Investments are being made in startups in the defense sector, and the DEVITUS program has been created with a budget of 300 million euros,” the deputy minister commented.

Yet, the nation believes it is closer to war than ever before as a result of its alliance with the EU. Lithuania has implemented a new defense mechanism to prevent a land invasion—dragon teeth. These “dragon teeth” are large triangular concrete blocks that are intended to block the path of war tanks. “We are starting from the tactical level — specific obstacles on the border — and later we will combine the entire engineering plan into one conceptual system,” said Raimundas Vaiksnoras, commander of the Lithuanian army.

Lithuania will hold the rotating presidency of the EU Council in 2027. By 2027, according to the computer models, the world will begin to feel the full impact of war, and discontent will rise into 2028. Moldova was sold the globalist dream of Brussels. The short-term pay off is not expected to last.