Tag Archives: Yellow Vest protests

Jun 8 2023

Gold & the Future


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold Re-Posted Jun 7, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, first I want to thank you for your independent analysis. In gold, all they ever say is buy – buy – buy. It seems if you ever say anything else, they ridicule you. Gold to them is a religion, not an investment.

My question is that you have always said that the fourth challenge to a high is when it breaks out. Do you expect that this year?

Thank you ever so much

WK

PS: Was that you at the Premier of Pandemic3?

ANSWER: We still have a barrier of overhead resistance at the 2160-2180 level and some at 2200. After that, the next resistance is around 2600. Keep in mind that Ukraine is the MOST untrustworthy country on the planet. Already arms provided to Ukraine have been used in the attacks inside Russia. The F16s will be used to attack Crimea. All they will do is spread their hatred and they are deliberately trying to create World War III. They will create a false flag to attack a NATO country and claim it was Russia. They have been desperately trying to capture a Russian missile so they can fire it at Poland.

Our computer shows NOTHING but war ahead, especially from 2025 onward. But for now, expect the volatility to begin to rise again from June into next January. INFLATION will NOT subside. It cannot when we are at war. Biden will spend whatever he is instructed by the Neocons.

Yes, I was at the Premier in Austin, Texas. That is me in the background.

Jun 5 2023

Sunday Talks, Kevin McCarthy Defends His Budget Ceiling Bill – Focused Heavily on a Return to Regular Budgetary Order


Posted originally on June 4, 2023 | Sundance 

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy appears with Maria Bartiromo to address criticism about details within his debt ceiling bill.  The criticism is very valid, and is being made by many people who are unhappy with the deal to raise the debt ceiling.  However, the primary defense point of McCarthy surrounds a return to regular budgetary order.

As noted by McCarthy, the 12 house appropriations bill that form the traditional federal budget, are due in Aug/Sept for fiscal year 2025 which begins October 1st.  That is where substantive spending will be reduced, well below current spending levels.  However, Bartiromo confronts that outlook by asking ‘what if’ the Senate doesn’t take up the federal budget bill, preferring instead to use the funding mechanism provided within the debt ceiling bill.  {Direct Rumble Link}

The budget debate may sound somewhat parliamentarian, because the nuance of federal budgets is exactly that.  The mechanism to force congress to create a regular order budget is the debt ceiling. Essentially the national credit limit. If you take away the mechanism to force the budget, there is no force mechanism to require the budget.  WATCH:

Speaker McCarthy gets offensive when Maria ask him about what’s in the debt ceiling bill.

The amount of debt carried in your own household budget is only a problem if you have a limit on your credit. If you have unlimited credit, meaning you can borrow endless amounts of money, then you can spend as much as you want. This willy-nilly raising of the national debt ceiling is the issue at the core of why federal budgets are not passed.

Jun 2 2023

Senate Passes Debt Ceiling on Schedule


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis Re-Posted Jun 1, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, the Senate passed the Debt Ceiling. It is amazing how Socrates shows there was no debt crisis. As you wrote “When we look at the Array, we do not see a crisis with the debt ceiling.”  I do not know how it does this, but what you have created is truly a gift to humankind.

CLB

REPLY: I never expected that linking everything together would predict wars, civil unrest, or financial crises. There is a lot we can learn from Socrates.

May 25 2023

The Debt Ceiling = Pi $31.4 Trillion


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis Re-Posted May 24, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hello Martin,
The debt ceiling is pi!! = 31.4 trillion $
Coincidence? 😜
Best regards from Vienna and thanks for what you are doing.
Ralf

REPLY:  Yes, very interesting. This is no doubt the major turning point on debt and this is on a global scale. It is not the collapse of the debt just yet nor the dollar.

May 25 2023

The GOP’s Debt Ceiling Demands


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted May 24, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Republicans and Democrats are refusing to agree on the debt ceiling crisis. The government will be unable to pay its bills and the US will default if an agreement is not reached. Yellen has reached out to every media outlet and large corporation in the US to warn of the “catastrophic” consequences. Of course, they’ve always managed to increase the limit in the past as America cannot afford to default on its debt obligations. The Democrats insist on spending with no end in sight, while the Republicans are demanding some sort of budget. Biden and McCarthy met on Monday to discuss, but neither side will budge.

Biden said the GOP is taking an “extreme position,” but what are they demanding? The GOP wants to set discretionary federal spending at $1.47 trillion for the next fiscal year, with an increase of only 1% in future years. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said this would reduce the deficit by $4.8 trillion in the next decade.

The promise Biden made to students must be repealed for the Republicans to accept the ceiling. Biden implemented this policy to buy young votes and had no fiscal plan in place to finance such a lofty goal. The GOP believes student loan payments are being unfairly subsidized by millions of American taxpayers, many who already paid off their own student debt. Biden’s plan also does nothing to address continually rising tuition costs. The CBO believes this cut will save taxpayers about $460 billion over the next decade.

Biden’s IRS Army must also be defunded. The GOP wants to rescind the $71 billion that the Biden Administration used to hire 87,000 new IRS agents. We never had a need for so many agents in the past, and it is unlikely that they will shakedown $71 billion from average American families.

The Republicans also want to take back unobligated COVID relief money. Six separate bills were passed between 2020 and 2022 and the government is still shelling out money for a pandemic that has ended. The CBO stated this would save the US $30 billion in spending over the next 10 years.

The climate change agenda is costly. Republicans are demanding that Biden eliminate some of the tax breaks his administration provides to green-friendly companies. They’re negotiating exactly how to position some of the perks for biofuel. In general, the CBO believes this will save the US $570 billion over the next 10 years.

Increasing America’s ability to become energy dependent is crucial. Biden ripped away America’s ability to function without energy exports on his first day in office. The country needs coal, natural gas, and oil to function and energy inflation remains a serious problem. The energy bill, labeled HR1 as it is of top importance, would also boost production of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and other minerals.

The Republicans would also like to limit social programs and government handouts. Able-bodied adults under the age of 50, without dependents, must work a minimum of 20 hours a week or they may lose their SNAP and food stamp benefits. Those who are unemployed but on Medicaid and able-bodied will also be required to work a part-time job. The CBO stated 15 million Medicaid recipients would be required to work part-time, and 1.5 million could risk losing federal funding.

Unsurprising since the neocons are on both sides, no one has asked Biden to end the blank checks to Ukraine. America has sent hundreds of millions to Ukraine and is receiving nothing in return. Our own border is overrun and yet we just pledged another $300 million of American taxpayers’ money to secure Ukraine’s border. The funding for this war will create unprecedented inflation and cripple our economy.

May 23 2023

Africa’s First Test Run for a CBDC has Failed


Armstrong Economics Blog/Great Reset Re-Posted May 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The transition to CBDC in Nigeria did not go as planned. The elites always seek out African nations to use as their test subjects. Nigeria attempted to slowly roll out the program dubbed eNaria built on the Hyperleger Fabric blockchain. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is solely responsible for running the nodes of this digital currency. Beginning stress tests stated this currency could execute 2,000 transactions per section.  In October 2021, the government began offering incentives to citizens who chose to CBN.

A year later, the country was still hesitant to make the switch so the central bank began implementing forceful measures. In October 2022, the CBN decided to cancel and resign the currency in a “move aimed at restoring the control of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) over currency in circulation.” They stated that the original paper notes would only be legal tender until January 31, 2023, leaving the people with no alternative but to convert their cash. Nigerians were no stranger to the concept of currency cancellation as it is something the government has routinely done. The CBN openly announced that the end goal was to target a 100% cashless society replaced with eNaria. Fewer than 0.5% of Nigerians adopted the eNaria and protests erupted across the nation.

By December 2, 2022, the Central Bank of Nigeria issued a letter to all banking institutes implementing a strict ban on physical cash. The central bank set a cash withdrawal limit of ₦100,000 ($225) per week for individuals and ₦500,000 ($1,123) for businesses. Citizens wishing to take out larger sums were subject to a processing fee between 5% and 10%. ATMs were limited to ₦20,000 ($45) per day, and only ₦200 ($0.45) notes or lower denominations were available in the machines.

Bloomberg reported that 90% of the country previously used cash for transactions. They did not want to convert to CBDC but were provided with no alternative. Demonetizing the currency reduced available cash from 3.2 trillion narias to 1 trillion narias. This led to the central bank creating over 10 billion eNarias. The people are continually protesting these measures as their society which was largely dependent on cash interactions has been destabilized.

This is how it all begins. They are using Nigeria and other countries as test subjects before rolling out these programs in the West. It is hard for Americans to fathom currency cancelation, as it has never occurred here. Yet, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that they are looking into this option. Per usual, they market it as a “convenience” for the people. In truth, it is a way to ensure money stays on the grid under the thumb of government. They will not allow one cent to go untaxed, and as the program expands, they can remove individuals and organizations from participating in society entirely.

May 20 2023

Do Some Ukrainians Realize They Are Pawns of the Neocons?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted May 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Do the Ukrainian people understand that they are the pawns of the Neocons? Can you confirm that Ukraine shot down Russia’s hypersonic missile? They are sacrificing innocent people on both sides in this quest to destroy Russia and take all its resources.

DJ

ANSWER: This is the former adviser to Zelensky, Alexey Arestovich, who quit in protest after he told the truth that a Russian missile that hit a building in Dnipro, killing 44 people, was shot down by Kyiv and was not directed at an apartment building. He has publicly stated that

“The West deceived Russia. They promised not to push NATO to the east, and they did. They turned Ukraine into a huge anti-Russian country. If I was in Russia’s shoes, I would have done the exact same thing.”

I have spoken to some Ukrainians who are fully aware that they have been used as cannon fodder. They are starting to wake up that they are losing everything for someone else’s geopolitical game. Had the government honored the Minsk Agreement, there would have been no civil war.

Back in 1999, it was the Neocons who were linked with the bankers in their attempt to take over Russia. I was asked to invest $10 billion into their Hermitage Capital Management organization and I refused.  In this second edition, I have added the info on the Neocons and their antics. This book was written using all the declassified documents from the Clinton Administration so it is not my opinion.

As I have said, we had two Ukrainian employees, one from Donstk and the other from Kyiv and they could not be in the same room together. This is well entrenched the same as the Irish v the Protestants in Ireland or the Suni v Shite in the Middle East.

As far as actually shooting down a hypersonic missile, we will have to see if this is true or not. My fear is that if this is correct, then removing Putin will open the door to Russia using nuclear weapons if they have no other defense. The computer has been targeting June/July on many levels.

May 17 2023

Supply Chain Crisis and Inflation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted May 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hello Mr. Armstrong. Thank you for my daily dose of reality. Your blog is one of the last sources of untainted news. I would like to show these pictures my daughter sent me last week. We live in an affluent neighborhood in New Jersey where petty theft does not occur. The news outlets have not mentioned baby formula shortages. I do not believe they are locking up the baby formula to prevent crime. What is going on here?

Thanks — C.G.

REPLY: The supply chain issue has never been resolved. It improved from the days of bare shelves in the grocery stores, but many essentials are stuck in the pipeline. Products that expire will see additional shortages naturally. The supply shortage is fueling inflation and raising rates will not solve the problem.

The Fed thinks that raising rates will curb inflation by raising the cost of borrowing. That is not the problem here. Part of the inflationary crisis we are witnessing is due to demand outweighing available supply across industries. The Fed cannot control government spending nor the money supply. People are viewing the crisis today from the perspective of the ‘60s when it was NOT possible to borrow on T bills. After the collapse of Bretton Woods in ’71, you COULD trade off government debt and that eliminated the idea that it was less inflationary to borrow rather than spend. Artificially low rates that created a borrowing addiction among institutions who believed it was safe to do so.

Powell cannot come out and criticize Congress for their spending. These rate hikes are not good for the supply chain shortages. Inflation went up two years before the Fed even addressed rates due to the supply chain crisis. The central bank only began to hike rates after the war in Ukraine began. Notice how at the last meeting, the FOMC incorporated that they will monitor “international events.” WAR is the primary driver of inflation and there is nothing that the central bank can do to prevent the destruction caused by government and years of poor monetary policy.

May 16 2023

Zelensky: Ukraine Will Win War before 2024 US Elections


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted May 16, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

I have said it countless times – the only way they will keep Biden in power is to enter the war. The US and all NATO nations have already unofficially entered the war by supplying soldiers and a blank check to Ukraine and attempting to nuke Russia’s economy by removing it from SWIFT and placing outrageous sanctions on individual citizens. Now, Zelensky is saying he believes Ukraine will achieve victory before the 2024 US Presidential Elections.

No one is going to “win” this war. Neither side can back down now without a full-scale global conflict. The US will likely officially enter the war before the 2024 US Presidential Election. Zelensky confidently stated that regardless of who wins our independent election, the leader of the free world (allegedly) will still support the war in Ukraine. He’s right! There are neocons on both sides of the aisle and no one will permit Trump to win even if the people elect him.

During Trump’s town hall meeting, the first-time people actually tuned in to CNN, he said that deaths on both sides could have been prevented. Everyone is talking about strategy and winning as if we are playing Battleship. Mothers are losing their sons every day, and human nature never changes. The Ukrainian mother mourns her son the same as the Russian mother, and neither had a say in this completely preventable conflict. DeSantis has also said that backing Ukraine is not a priority for the US. “We cannot prioritize intervention in an escalating foreign war over the defense of our own homeland,” DeSantis declared.

Trump ruffled feathers in Europe as president. He warned Germany that they were too dependent on Russian energy, and they laughed in his face. He threatened to exit NATO is other nations failed to pay their fair share. Trump is still standing firm on his position that the US has less to lose and has accused Europe on unfairly relying on the US. His former vice president disagrees, as Mike Pence, a potential candidate, as stated. “We support those who fight our enemies on their shores, so we will not have to fight them ourselves,” wrote Pence. UN Ambassador (the title gives it away) Nikki Haley also wants to continue fighting the proxy war in the US.

Democratic candidate Robert F. Kennedy is also against the war. Kennedy tweeted:

“In 2019 actor and comedian Volodymyr Zelensky ran as the peace candidate winning the Ukrainian presidency with 70% of the vote. As Benjamin Abelow observes in his brilliant book, “How the West Brought War to Ukraine,” Zelensky almost certainly could have avoided the 2022 war with Russia simply by uttering five words — “I will not join NATO.” But pressured by NeoCons in the Biden White House, and by violent fascist elements within the Ukrainian government, Zelensky integrated his army with NATO’s and allowed the U.S. to place nuclear-capable Aegis missile launchers along Ukraine’s 1,200-mile border with Russia. These were provocations that senior U.S. diplomats like post-WWII foreign policy architect George Kennan, former U.S. Defense Secretary Bill Perry, and former U.S. ambassador to Moscow Jack Matlock had long described as “red lines” for Russian leadership. Let’s face it, the Neocons wanted this war with Russia, just as they wanted war with Iraq. Listen here to NATO Supreme Commander General Wesley Clark describe how White House Neocons justified the Iraq invasion.”

I have posted the video he shared with this tweet at the top of this article. I have been criticized for analyzing Kennedy’s economic and environmentalist views, but I am not for or against anyone and would not write someone off simply because of their political party. I believe he is right in his views regarding Ukraine and COVID, although I may disagree with him on other items. Again, anyone against the establishment is going to have a rough time leading up to the election.

Everyone in the establishment craves war; hence, the machine will ensure that the US is positioned where they MUST enter the war. I wish I were wrong, but the computer has always been right. The War Cycle turned up in 2014 and only indicates a further escalation.

May 16 2023

Pasta Prices Soar 20% in Italy – The Return of the Pasta Cartel?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted May 16, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

(image above represents shrinkflation — an additional burden to consumers)

Italy’s Industry Minister Adolfo Urso called for an emergency meeting to discuss the sharp uptick in food prices. Pasta alone is up nearly 20%, and this is a major problem in a country where 60% of residents report eating this item daily. Some provinces are seeing a 58% increase in this staple item. Siena, Tuscany, reported pasta rising from $1.50 a kilo to $2.37 a kilo within in a year. The European Central Bank stated that inflation reached 8.1% in March, so what is driving these food prices?

Some may point to wheat, the main ingredient, as the recent usurping of farmland and the Ukraine war had an impact on prices. However, wheat prices have actually declined in recent months. Durum wheat is down 30% since May of last year. The only other ingredient required to make pasta is water.

Coldiretti, Italy’s biggest farmers association, said that farmers are not seeing an uptick in revenue and are struggling to make ends meet. “There is no justification for the increases other than pure speculation on the part of the large food groups who also want to supplement their budgets with extra profits,” Assoutenti president Furio Truzzi told the Washington Post. Yet, food manufacturers are claiming that this spike in pasta costs in temporary and a result of pasta produced during the beginning of the Ukraine war and energy crisis.

This is not the first time that Italy has seen a rise in food prices. Italian authorities raised 26 pasta manufacturers in 2009 and fined the industry 12.5 million euros for creating what Reuters described as a “pasta cartel.” Around 90% of pasta makers in the country were in on the price gouging scheme that operated from May 2006 until May 2008, during which pasta prices rose 51.8% for retailers and 26% for consumers. Barilla, the largest pasta producer at the time, received the largest fine of 5.7 million euros.

Food inflation is a major problem across the world. In Italy, overall food prices rose 12.6% in April 2023, marking a slight decline from March’s 13.2% reading. This is unsustainably high. The overall inflation numbers put forth by government agencies are always the best-case scenario as they do not want us to see the true damage of inflation.