Panic Cycle & the Deep State


Armstrong Economics Blog/Press Re-Posted Dec 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Once more I am asking:
In practical terms, when a Panic Cycle appears, which are the factors that will help us to determine if the movement will be up or down please?
Thank you for answering.
SM

QUESTION #2: Your Panic Cycle is remarkable and your forecast on Ukraine before 2014 warrants putting you on the front page of every newspaper. Do you think the fact that ________ goes out of its way to find people who will say what your model has and never refer to you as being part of the whole disinformation game? I tend to trust them less and less for never crediting your computer even once as part of the whole cancel culture. What is your view on this silence?

ANSWER: A Panic Cycle, more often than not, can be an outside reversal meaning it can penetrate the previous low, turn around, and penetrate the previous high. It can also be a huge move in one direction. They tend to be events that are a surprise typically engulfed in some news. It is hard to come up with the fundamentals well in advance. But the computer was picking up the 2008 crash as far back as 1999. I took this array from our old site off of the Wayback machine.

We published the computer forecast in 2013 that had pinpointed Ukraine as the place where World War III would begin. That was one year before the 2014 revolution. The ONLY people to call for an interview on that forecast was RT from Russia. That says a lot. No one social media site nor even one mainstream news outlet ever bothered to can to ask how could this computer do that.

It should be obvious as we move into a Panic Cycle. If a market is rising, be on guard and turn to the Weekly and Monthly levels to see if there will be a big crash or an abrupt breakout. Trying to explain that 2007-2009 would be a major crash was rather simple as you got closer.  The very day of the high in the ECM was the precise day of the high in the Shiller Real Estate Index.  The Panic Cycle Target of 2010.29 was the precise day that Greece applied for emergency loans from the IMF. It should have been obvious going into that from 2002 that it would have been a crash.

Keep in mind that a Panic Cycle can be an OUTSIDE REVERSAL meaning it can make a new low and high during the same timing interval. Here is Weekly gold. There the Panic Cycle for the week of 04/18/22 was a high as well as a big move in one direction. Note that the top Composite or aggregate was a turning point. This helped to define that it would be a high since the market was rallying into it. Take note that the Directional Change target for the Week of 05/16 produced the low also because it coincided with the target for a turning point on the top line. Note that the next Directional Change was 06/06/22 and that was the highest closing with the next week being an outside reversal to the downside.

Insofar as to why other sites refuse to report the success of Socrates or the mainstream press, a lot of people write in asking if the same site ignores our forecasts and will go out of their way to tout someone else are really part of the undercover proxy war of the government against the free press. I cannot confirm or deny that view, but indeed a lot of people write in question if they are the same thing that is now being exposed with the corruption at Twitter and the government-controlled Wikipedia. Some emails have pointed out that they jump on claiming this breakthrough in cold fusion, but refuse to report on how our computer has projected so many things years ahead of time and could save the world if you got rid of the corrupt politicians and deep state.

As I have explained, the Constitution is a NEGATIVE restraint upon exclusive government. This is how the government has been using social media and mainstream media to cancel people, and ignore others, doing what would be unconstitutional if the Deep State did it directly. So you may be right. If they go out of their way to find someone else, perhaps they too are getting their orders from Washington DC. Guess we need Musk to buy them out too.

The computer had targeted 2014 for the start of the war. This is me outlining that 3 years in advance at the 2011 World Economic Conference. Some people judge various sites and newspapers that constantly ignore reporting on any of these forecasts as really just part of the Deep State no matter what they pretend to be. After what Musk has exposed, you have to question any of them these days.

Looking at DHS Discussion with a New Twitter File Context, We Discover the Inflection Point


Posted originally on the CTH on December 18, 2022 | sundance 

During my trip to DC in the summer of 2020 there were a myriad of disconcerting datapoints assembled; revelations that made sense of the madness and disappointments found everywhere. However, one of the key notations for future reference was to watch the political evolution of DHS and spot the jump where the ideological outlook turns into specific government action.

With the DHS/FBI portal within Twitter, and likely within all social media, now being openly discussed and mainstreamed, it’s worth revisiting an August 2021 tripwire crossed by DHS and then contemplating how that was influenced by a much larger ideological agenda.

The United States Department of Homeland Security made a quiet and alarming announcement on August 13, 2021, creating the official position of the United States Government under the Joe Biden regime. [SEE DHS STATEMENT HERE]  According to the statement if you questioned the orthodoxy of government mandates, or COVID-19 responses from the U.S. government, you were -effective immediately- considered a “terrorist”, specifically a “Domestic Violent Extremist” (DVE).

Most people missed this remarkable development, yet it seemed to underpin a tenuous, unstable and fragile disposition of the current administration.  Within this continuation of the Obama-era initiatives the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) seemed rather paranoid in their need to label anyone who would question the COVID-19 response.

Considering the polling at the time, more than half the country would be defined as dissidents and domestic terrorists within our homeland.  Think about that.

DHS – The Secretary of Homeland Security has issued a new National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) Bulletin regarding the current heightened threat environment across the United States. […] These threats include those posed by domestic terrorists, individuals and groups engaged in grievance-based violence. […] Such threats are also exacerbated by impacts of the ongoing global pandemic, including grievances over public health safety measures and perceived government restrictions. (read more)

Notice the wording of that introductory paragraph.  The government-imposed mandates, mask and vaccination requirements were only “perceived government restrictions.”

The chains that bound your expressions of liberty and freedom were essentially being defined as mere figments of your imagination.  The rules and denials of activity that we are forced to live by, under the auspices of “public health and safety measures“, were described as perceived demands.

Most people missed this inflection point, but it was a substantive change in messaging from the United States Government.

The needle then being forced into the arm of federal workers by the Federal Government was not the problem.

It was the public perception of a forced medical treatment, and the need to control that perception that became the priority of the Dept of Homeland Security.

It was our perception of what they are doing that became the problem as outlined in this DHS bulletin.  Here is where you must overlay the Twitter File revelations about the action the government took as an outcome of that shift.  What followed in the censorship/control of social media by the same government agency, DHS, was an outcome of this ideological moment.

In essence We The People must correct our wrong-thoughts to eliminate carrying ‘the wrong perception’.  Dear leader appreciates your compliance.  At the time CTH noted to all readers the DHS statement was full blown Stazi-level propaganda.  The bulletin continues:

[…] Through the remainder of 2021, racially- or ethnically-motivated violent extremists (RMVEs) and anti-government/anti-authority violent extremists will remain a national threat priority for the United States. These extremists may seek to exploit the emergence of COVID-19 variants by viewing the potential re-establishment of public health restrictions across the United States as a rationale to conduct attacks. Pandemic-related stressors have contributed to increased societal strains and tensions, driving several plots by domestic violent extremists, and they may contribute to more violence this year.

[…] There are also continued, non-specific calls for violence on multiple online platforms associated with DVE ideologies or conspiracy theories on perceived election fraud and alleged reinstatement, and responses to anticipated restrictions relating to the increasing COVID cases. (link)

This became the official position of the United States Government toward citizens in our nation.  It is from this perspective that outreach and instructions to Twitter and various social media platforms originated.

Hopefully, in hindsight, you can see the importance of that narrative shift and how it ended with real consequences amid the speech platforms.

However, I want to move deeper, beyond that moment in 2021, deeper into the context that had taken hold of the various apparatus of government institutions.  Back to that moment when the shift in approach became evident, albeit ignored for its consequence.

Immediately after Barack H Obama was successfully installed in office, something began to shift.  While the U.S. media had always been biased, manipulative and dishonest, there was something bigger and deeper that changed after The Lightbringer achieved power and began his process of fundamental change.

The shift in the national security deployment, coincided with the merge between the intelligence apparatus and the new platforms of social media.  The speed of the shift was directly connected to the speed of technology that was driving communication.

Together the intelligence apparatus, the customary U.S. media and Big Tech began testing how far and how fast they could control the outlook of Americans.  Few people were paying attention to it…. there were some… but not many, and most of those who did notice were not connecting the dots to the actual tests.

The shift in attack direction from media (social and traditional) was alarming.

Normally the bias we encountered was framed to excuse or justify the transparently guilty of accountability.  Bad people doing bad things were downplayed, excused and defended.  However, in 2011 & 2012, the new era of controlling public opinion took shape and the system partners began falsely accusing the transparently innocent.

Read that again, because it was a profound difference, and inflection point.

Public opinion propaganda shifted from excusing the transparently guilty, to framing the transparently innocent.

Together with ideological institutions in government (Obama’s crew ie. DOJ etc.), the customary U.S. media and Big Tech system control operators began testing how far and fast they could control the outlook of Americans… to accuse the transparently innocent

Some transparently innocent examples included, George Zimmerman (Trayvon Martin), Police Officer Darren Wilson (Mike Brown), the Baltimore Six accused (Freddy Gray), Nick Sandmann, Kile Rittenhouse, and then ultimately the biggest example, Donald J Trump.  Take a transparently innocent person and manipulate a public narrative to make them guilty.

In combination with this new use of the public-private partnership to target the transparently innocent, the social media platforms were instructed to remove content that ran counter to the false presentations.

Now, fast forward throughout a decade of the ideological shift (2011 to 2021) and what did the 2021 DHS terrorism bulletin do?

It expanded the targeting of the transparently innocent.

Instead of specific targets based on personage, the system of collaboration and control by DHS now extended to a whole of government effort to define people as ‘domestic terrorists.’  This is one long continuum of targeting the transparently innocent.

The target holds the same ideas, outlooks, worldviews, and expectations of Liberty and Freedom they held yesterday, last week, last month and perhaps even long before 9-11-01.  However, now you are the problem.  You are guilty. You are an extremist.

You didn’t change at all. Something else changed.  But notice how the spotlight on what changed is YOU, and not the origin of the change?

You are the problem. It’s not the fault of those fundamentally changing the structures of freedom or liberty, you shifted to become the guilty party.

Can you see how they did that?

Can you see how the cancer cells of beta-test accusations against the transparently innocent metastasized and weaponized into a system that now uses the institutions of government against all of us, against the average American who might not accept the specific demands of government, ie. mask wearing, vaccinations, etc.

This government effort, a continuation of a narrative engineering strategy that originated in the aftermath of Obama’s election, specifically included the weaponization of social media and the compliance of the system operators who controlled Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Google, Microsoft, YouTube, etc.

How can we help people to see this, to understand what took place?

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J6 Committee Formally Accuses President Trump of Daring to Oppose Clinton and Biden, Thereby Inciting an Insurrection


Posted originally on the CTH on December 19, 2022 | sundance

The J6 Committee has announced they have found President Trump guilty of four counts of campaigning against their Democrat candidates and attempting to disrupt the DC system of governing and financial graft.   The committee formally announced their intent today for political referrals to the Biden-Obama justice department.

In addition to holding other scandalous political conversations, President Trump is accused of: (1) “aiding and comforting” disgruntled voters; (2) obstructing Congress’ Jan. 6 joint session by holding a political rally in DC; (3) conspiring with some unknown entity to make false claims to the bureaucrats in the National Archives about his private papers; and ultimately, (4) conspiring to defraud the United States and deprive Washington DC of its business model.

The J6 Committee has released a 160-page “executive summary” of a report they will release soon [READ HERE], and will now refer President Trump to Lisa Monaco, Deputy Attorney General and former White House counsel for President Obama, to be prosecuted in Washington DC for heinous crimes and insurrection.

The goal is to fulfill President Obama’s former campaign manager David Plouffe’s promise to destroy President Trump and block him from holding office again.

Washington DC – […] The panel has long contended Trump broke the law. But its new report — which the committee voted to release but has yet to become public — is expected to add vivid new details of that effort, particularly about the cast of enablers who facilitated Trump’s gambit, from Republican members of Congress to a team of lawyers pushing fringe legal theories to shadowy operatives awash in conspiracies. The panel also released the 160-page executive summary of its report, capturing the contours of its case against Turmp.

“Faith in our system is the foundation of American democracy. If the faith is broken, so is our democracy,” said select panel chair Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.). “Donald Trump broke that faith. He lost the 2020 election and knew it, but he chose to try to stay in office through a multi-part scheme.”

“This can never happen again,” Thompson added.

The recommended referral for insurrection mentions U.S. District Court Judge Amit Mehta’s ruling in February, which said Trump’s language plausibly incited violence on Jan. 6 and cited the Senate’s 57 votes in last year’s impeachment trial to convict Trump on “incitement of insurrection.”

Charging decisions rest entirely with DOJ prosecutors, not Congress, but panel members have increasingly stressed the impact their transmission to the department could have on public opinion — viewing it as part of building a historical record around the attack. Special Counsel Jack Smith is currently conducting a wide-ranging investigation of Trump’s scheme to cling to power, and the select panel has also moved in parallel with DOJ’s effort to prosecute hundreds of Trump supporters who attacked the Capitol. (read more)

Everything seems to be following a flow and pattern associated with intense Democrat effort to retain their ‘fundamental change‘ objective.

If the sequencing is maintained, Hunter Biden will likely be charged with some low-level tax crime, right before President Trump is charged with attempting to destroy the universe.   At this point the clown show is ridiculous and absurd.  Believe me, the entire electorate can see it…. Not just MAGA supporters.

The more they do this, the more I appreciate the Rosetta Stone that President Donald J Trump represents.

Steadfast!

Bill Barr is Contributor to Bari Weiss Twitter File Release Website


Posted originally on the CTH on December 12, 2022 | Sundance 

I’m not going to write extensively about this because I respect your intellectual ability to see the obvious.  Questions have been raised about why the Twitter File releases appear to have been structured in a fashion to protect government interests.

Well, the new Bari Weiss website that was set up to launch as an exclusive outcome of the Twitter File release, includes a current contributor and former 2020 control officer of the DOJ who would have facilitated the DHS/FBI contact with social media; the stuff that is transparently missing from the Twitter File releases.

SOURCE ]

Yes, former AG Bill Barr is a content partner with Twitter File narrative engineer Bari Weiss.  Gee, I wonder how that happens?

Oh look, and what a coincidence… they are both promoting Ron DeSantis.

Wait… Elon Musk is also promoting Ron Desantis… and Mr Musk is simultaneously promoting the Bari Weiss website that promotes Ron DeSantis… and contains Twitter File releases that are conspicuously missing the discussion angle of FBI influence in the 2020 election… Almost as if… wait, nah, that would be conspiracy talk.  Just ordinary coincidences everywhere, for sure.

Former DNI John Ratcliffe Discusses Corrupt Deep State DNI Election Official Shelby Pierson Meeting with Twitter and Social Media


Posted originally on the CTH on December 12, 2022 | Sundance 

Former Director of National Intelligence, John Ratcliffe, appeared on Sunday with Maria Bartiromo to discuss the Twitter file release that pertained to his former office and the contact between DNI election official Shelby Pierson and Twitter executive Noel Roth. {Direct Rumble Link}

DNI Ratcliffe does not use Shelby Pierson’s name within his comments, but refutes her action as described within the release by Matt Taibbi.  WATCH:

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Within the Twitter file release, you will find Twitter’s lead censor, Yoel Roth, meeting with an official from the U.S. Dept of National Intelligence (DNI).  From the testimony of FBI Special Agent Elvis Chan, we know that official was Shelby Pierson.  Chan was speaking under oath in an ongoing first amendment lawsuit against the Biden administration for manipulating and censoring speech on social media.

To see the connective tissue between the events in 2011 (Egypt) and the events a decade later in 2020 (USA), it is worth noting a discussion that took place in early 2020 between Shelby Pierson and former CIA Director Mike Morell.

Mike Morell was made CIA Director after General Petraeus was removed in 2012 by then DNI James Clapper at the behest of President Obama.  With his new position, Mike Morell was the Obama official who gave testimony to congress about CIA operations in/around the Libyan Benghazi compound attack on 9/11/11.  Morell was put into this position to protect Hillary Clinton and President Obama for the crisis they created in Libya, the covert arms sales to Libya, and ultimately the Benghazi attack that stemmed from State Dept and CIA efforts to retrieve those illegal weapons.

During the 2016 Presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, Mike Morell was a key voice helping to frame the narrative that Russia was planning to interfere in the election.  Morell, no longer in government and working for Clinton, was another 2016 vector seeding the Trump-Russia narrative to the media while Fusion GPS and Christopher Steele worked outside sending various files to FBI allies to assist the fraudulent framework.

Mike Morell is a key Clinton/Obama loyalist and tool of the national security state.  Morell is now a CBS intelligence analyst and contributor.

Back to Shelby Pierson….  In early January 2020 Ms. Pierson and Mr Morell were discussing the upcoming presidential election from the perspective of how the U.S. Intelligence Community would be engaged.  Emphasis mine:

(Via CBS) – In this episode of Intelligence Matters, host Michael Morell speaks with Shelby Pierson, a career intelligence official recently named the Intelligence Community Election Threats Executive within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Pierson details past, present and future election security threats facing the U.S., and explains how the intelligence community has partnered with other government agencies to boost visibility into foreign interference efforts.

She explains how the threat landscape has broadened since 2016, and tells Morell what new vectors foreign adversaries may consider using in 2020. Pierson also offers new insights into Russia’s systematic efforts to interfere in the 2016 and 2018 midterm elections. This is the latest installment of a continuing series on “Leadership of the IC,” featuring currently-serving senior leadership within the U.S. intelligence community. (link)   

Keep in mind, Shelby Pierson is the key official from the ODNI office, talking to FBI liaison Elvis Chan about frameworks for social media censorship and the specific needs of the U.S. government in October 2020.  At the same time, it is Shelby Pierson who is coordinating withe Twitter Executive Yoel Roth.

I urge readers to read the full CBS transcript above get a sense Ms. Pierson from the context of her conversation with fellow traveler Mike Morell in January 2020.

Then, not coincidentally, we go to the CTH archives from February 2020:

February 23, 2020 – […] Sending shockwaves through the intelligence community, it was reported yesterday that newly appointed Acting DNI Richard “Ric” Grenell asked the intelligence community, specifically including Shelby Pierson, to produce the underlying intelligence within the briefing she gave to the House Intelligence Committee.

Well, what do you know…. All of a sudden today, anonymous intelligence officials are reporting to CNN that Ms. Pierson “overstepped” her position, was “misleading” in her briefing, and “mischaracterized” the underlying intelligence.   Imagine that.

Washington (CNN)-The US intelligence community’s top election security official appears to have overstated the intelligence community’s formal assessment of Russian interference in the 2020 election, omitting important nuance during a briefing with lawmakers earlier this month, three national security officials told CNN.

The official, Shelby Pierson, told lawmakers on the House Intelligence Committee that Russia is interfering in the 2020 election with the goal of helping President Donald Trump get reelected.

[…] “The intelligence doesn’t say that,” one senior national security official told CNN. “A more reasonable interpretation of the intelligence is not that they have a preference, it’s a step short of that.

[…] One intelligence official said that Pierson’s characterization of the intelligence was “misleading” and a national security official said Pierson failed to provide the “nuance” needed to accurately convey the US intelligence conclusions.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, where Pierson is a senior official, did not respond to CNN’s request for comment. (more)

Why would Shelby Pierson and Joseph Maguire intentionally blindside the White House?

The briefing was obviously spun by HPSCI Chairman Adam Schiff and democrats on the House intel committee; and there was no intelligence presented during the briefing to support the claims made by Pierson, Democrats and media. (2020 LINK)

What you see now surfacing is evidence of the framework of 2020 election manipulation from the DNI office.  That government manipulation later manifests in the public-private partnership between the U.S. government and Twitter, as highlighted in the releases of the Twitter files.

Former AG Bill Barr: Battered Conservative Voters Must Return to The Era of Compliant Victim Status and Dump President Trump


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 23, 2022 | Sundance 

In an op-ed from the New York Post today, former Attorney General Bill Barr joins the not coincidentally timed call from Republican Club officer Paul Ryan to dump Donald Trump.  New York Post and Fox News owner Rupert Murdoch smiles gleefully, but the organized effort is transparent.

According to the diatribe from Bill Barr, things were much better for the leaders of the ‘acceptable Republican Party‘ when the unwashed masses of the unrepresented middle-class were compliant in their role as victims to the GOP.  Battered conservatives are so much easier to manage if they just listen to the high-minded pontifications of the professional political class, pull lever and get pellet.

The tone of Barr’s screed is condescending in the extreme, as if he is delivering his prose to the RNC corporate boardroom at cocktail hour.  With a backdrop buffet of crustless triangle cucumber sandwiches and a masked waitstaff hurrying to provide the gentle ladies with white wine spritzer refills, you can visualize the words “hear, hear” coming from atop the crystal glasses.

As customary amid these conversations, titles are left unattributed for the unapproved.  “Trump brought his wrecking-ball style to the task of governing the nation. He did not temper his disruptiveness and penchant for chaos,” says Barr, pausing intentionally to afford his eloquence time to settle amid the less intellectually capable.

It took his senior staff and cabinet secretaries an ungodly amount of maneuvering to keep him on track,” Barr continued.  Murmured noises and well-toned grunts from the assembly communicated their seriousness in understanding and agreement.  Barr’s tenure was obviously a time of unimaginable horror.

Sympathy, shock and sadness afforded for Barr’s recounting of his survival.  Moments later, furrowed brows from the audience.

Yes, this vulgarian uprising has finally become too much for the shouldered cashmere sweater crowd to continue accepting.

All of this noise about good paying jobs, sound money, respect for a class of workers that will never sit in Corinthian leather, it’s all just too much.

Mitch leans forward, speaking in the familiar tones without lips moving, we must act now, or we may lose control.

The weight of the moment stills the room.

A younger voice from the Murdoch clan seeks to support the former attorney general by pointing out, “They don’t even drive cars – they use trucks.”  Almost immediately a reply, “Yes, and use gasoline,” from the affirming Perino, as widening eyes start to imagine it.

No longer content with patting heads and playing corporate pretenses to the base voters, now it is finally time for the well-educated to bring in the hired muscle and take control, even if forced evictions are needed.  It’s all just too much, too much.

Collectively they turn back toward Barr as he continues: “The threat is simple,” he says.

The time for toleration is over says Bill Barr, Paul Ryan and the billionaires who really matter.  The elite-minded self-appointed sovereigns have had enough.

Unless the rest of the party goes along with him, he will burn the whole house down by leading “his people” out of the GOP,” shouts Barr.  The open hand slammed upon the lectern, while seriousness of the statement catches even the waitstaff off guard as the entire room turns to hear.

Trump’s willingness to destroy the party if he does not get his way is not based on principle, but on his own supreme narcissism,” Barr continues.  “His egoism makes him unable to think of a political party as anything but an extension of himself — a cult of personality.”

Caught up in the lust of the moment a loud shout comes quickly from the back of the room, “REMOVE HIM!” is decried.

And just like that, the entire audience stares toward a stunned Ronna McDaniel, who was caught returning quietly to the buffet for another sandwich.  Embarrassed and unable to turn around with full cheeks, she gives the room a thumbs up over her shoulder….

Read the Op-Ed Here.