Posted originally on Jul 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The Ukraine Recovery Conference 2025 (URC) on July 10-11 in Rome concluded with joint agreements to provide Ukraine with 3.55 billion euros for reconstruction. “We received a clear message from Ukraine’s friends and partners: they are ready to invest in our recovery,” Oleksii Kuleba, Deputy Prime Minister for the Restoration of Ukraine and Minister for the Development of Communities and Territories stated. There is false hope that Ukraine will exist after this prolonged conflict.
The Ministry approved of five agreements worth over 370 million euros during this conference. The Italian Foreign Ministry agreed to offer 100% insurance coverage for banks on export loans up to 1.5 billion euros. If a bank lends money to support exports to Ukraine but the borrower fails to repay, the government-backed institution will take the loss. The claim is that the guarantee will safeguard Italian companies so that they may continue exporting goods and services to Ukraine. Ukrainian buyers will also have access to credit, and with the 100% insurance guarantee, banks may lower credit standards to otherwise risky borrowers. The potential for fraud is enormous. Worse, the Italian government and therefore the Italian people will be on the hook for 1.5 billion euros amid a highly unstable environment where repayment is not guaranteed.
The European Union and development banks also signed 10 agreements worth 929.3 million euros at the Rome conference. The World Bank through in $200 million as well for good measure. “Rebuilding Ukraine is not just about our country. It’s also about your countries, your companies, your technology, your jobs,” Zelensky said. Quite contrary as these government programs are selling out domestic policy in favor of a foreign government. The people do not benefit in any meaningful way as Europe has never relied on Ukraine for trade. Europe was more beholden to Russia before this ongoing war, which is precisely why they are experiencing a worsening energy crisis.
We need a Marshall Plan-style approach, and we should develop it together,” Zelensky stated, referring to the $13 billion (over $150 billion today) deal that the US granted to 16 European nations after World War II. The scale cannot be compared. The United States needed to stabilize Europe after the war to ensure that capital could continue to flow back to the States. No one is relying on Ukrainian capital. The US was also attempting to quell the spread of communism during this time and had a plethora of motives for assistance, none of which were purely charitable.
Western leaders are sacrificing countless funds for a nation that was never a strategic partner prior to the war. They believe the true jewel will be conquering Russia, whereas Ukraine is merely their stepping stone to enter the resource-rich, unconquerable land. Countless issues could be avoided if decision makers used history as their guide.
Posted originally on Jul 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
“I approve the use of the autopen for the execution of all of the following pardons,” an aide for former President Joe Biden wrote in an email pardoning Dr Anthony Fauci and members of the January 6 Committee. The National Archives has turned over tens of thousands of emails from the Joe Biden Administration to the Justice Department from November 2024 to January 2025 as the autopen investigation continues.
The majority of the emails in question contain keywords like “pardon,” “clemency,” and “commutation.” Biden’s staff claims that the former president vocalized his clemency decisions before Staff Secretary Stefanie Feldman approved them via autopen. Joe Biden’s final debate with Donald Trump occurred during this timeframe, leading the DNC to remove him from the race entirely as Biden was visibly showing signs of cognitive decline. “I’ve uncovered, you know, the human mind,” Trump said as reported by the New York Times. “I was in a debate with the human mind, and I didn’t think he knew what the hell he was doing.”
Biden claimed during his first interview last Thursday that he permitted 25 high-profile pardons through the use of an autopen from December 2024 to January 2025. The use of an autopen was allegedly necessary since there were too many people to pardon and the president simply could not allocate time for such crucial decisions. At this time, the DOJ is uncertain whether Joe Biden actually knew who his staff pardoned with his signature.
“At the Jan. 19 meeting, which took place in the Yellow Oval Room of the White House residence, Mr. Biden kept his aides until nearly 10 p.m. to talk through such decisions, according to people familiar with the matter,” the NYT wrote. “The emails show that an aide to Mr. Siskel sent a draft summary of Mr. Biden’s decisions at that meeting to an assistant to Mr. Zients, copying Mr. Siskel, at 10:03 p.m. The assistant forwarded it to Mr. Reed and Mr. Zients, asking for their approval, and then sent a final version to Ms. Feldman — copying many meeting participants and aides — at 10:28 p.m,” the reporting continues. “Three minutes later, Mr. Zients hit ‘reply all’ and wrote, ‘I approve the use of the autopen for the execution of all of the following pardons,’” the NYT concludes.
Biden pardoned or reduced the sentences for over 4,000 people, allegedly. “Mr. Biden did not individually approve each name for the categorical pardons that applied to large numbers of people, he and aides confirmed,” the NYT wrote. Instead, he simply provided a rough criterion for his aids to determine who qualified for a reduced sentence. This stands in contrast with Biden’s claims that he “consciously made all those decisions.” Unelected aides do not have the authority to reduce sentences or issue pre-emptive pardons. Biden’s aides have lawyered up, but there is no unified legal strategy, as Congress plans to issue additional subpoenas as the investigation continues.
The only pardon that Biden personally signed was for his son, Hunter. It is still unclear why people such as Hunter Biden and Anthony Fauci were pre-emptively pardoned if no crimes were committed. Again, only the president has the authority to determine who can be pardoned. Using an auto pen is standard procedure for presidents; however, the issues here are 1) did Joe Biden himself directly make these decisions, and 2) was Joe Biden mentally competent to understand the nature of these decisions?
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas believes that mass deportation efforts will negatively impact US GDP. Projections speculate that GDP could decline by nearly a percentage point in 2025, followed by larger cuts in the coming years.
GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS FACTORED INTO GDP.
I have repeatedly warned that Donald Trump would be blamed for the stagflation we are experiencing, when in reality his policies could not have impacted a cycle that was already in motion.
The study used a baseline scenario where 2.4 unauthorized migrants were deported in 2025, leading to a 0.8% drop in GDP for 2025. In a scenario where 1 million migrants are deported annually through 2027, the study believes GDP could decline by 0.9% in 2025 and 1.5 percentage points by 2027.
The study states that the labor force will contract as a result of closed borders, which is not a reflection of reality, as Americans are filling the roles once taken by non-foreign-born workers.
The problem is the brain-dead method used to calculate GDP. Government spending happens to be one of the main components of GDP. Cutting the public sector, for example, cut into GDP as even the salaries of government employees are factored into calculations.
GDP=C+I+G+(X−M)
C is consumer spending,
I is business investment,
G is government spending on goods and services,
X is exports,
M is imports
An untold fortune has been spent on open border policies. New York City alone believes migrant-related costs will reach $12 billion by mid-2025. The House Budget Committee stated in a 2024 report that American taxpayers were forced to pay at least $150.7 billion on “President Biden’s open border policies,” but that is a low estimate.
The American people are forced into increased taxation as a result of these policies. GDP calculations are a disaster and too warped to reveal the true health of the economy. Stagflation was inevitable, but the academics will continue to blame Trump-era policies that have had absolutely zero impact on the ongoing cycle.
Posted originally on Jul 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The world’s largest pension fund, the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) of Japan, reported a $61.1 billion loss for the first quarter of the year. Half of the fund’s $1.5 trillion assets under management (AUM) are within overseas markets, and although susceptible to currency fluctuations, the true problem lies in the fund’s other 50% of its portfolio—government bonds split 25% domestically and 25% foreign.
Any pension fund that holds government debt in size and thinks it will return to normal is delusional, as I mentioned back in 2021. They have faith that yields will recover when that is simply not the case. The entire idea of pensions has been set around the average 8 % return in interest rates, but it has been pension funds that are primarily the cause of lower interest rates, not the central banks. The number of pension funds out there created a bid for long‑term bonds.
Japan has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio among advanced economies. The Bank of Japan owns over 50% of JGBs, making it the largest single holder, which has created a rigged market. Yields have been artificially lowered, and capital allocation has been distorted for years. Pension funds, banks, and insurance companies have been locked into JGBs, not because they want yield, but because regulation and policy have given them no choice.
As for Japanese pensions, the large aging population and shrinking workforce have led to fewer taxpayers capable of supporting this growing demographic. GPIF began moving into foreign assets to escape the BOJ’s doomed policy of negative interest rate,s but it is trapped overall. Japan looks to GPIF as a sign of economic confidence, and these losses are a warning.
Socrates has issued bearish long-term outlooks on the Japanese bond market and warns of sovereign debt crises that will directly impact pension systems. Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) pay absolutely nothing, and yet GPIF is required to hold a portion. When there is no buyer left, the burden will fall on the Bank of Japan, and that is simply unsustainable. As the computer has warned, the sovereign debt crisis will begin in Japan before spreading like a contagion.
Posted originally on Jul 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) issued a new report that found tariffs are not to blame for inflation. In fact, the cost of imported goods has fallen this past year to a lower level than that of overall goods.
“CEA’s directional findings using this method of analyzing the PCE are consistent across core goods (excluding food and energy), durables (which last for at least three years), and nondurables,” the report reads. “The import contribution to inflation includes both the direct impact of imported final goods for consumption and indirect effects of imported intermediate inputs.”
Imported goods fell by 0.8% while the price of overall goods remained stagnant. The PCE index rose 0.4% from December to May or a 1% annualized rate, according to the CEA’s findings. Yet, the imported portion of PCE fell by 0.1% during the same period.
“The results clearly show the price of imported components declining, starting in March, while overall prices were close to unchanged or increased slightly,” the report reads. “Cumulatively, overall PCE prices have increased by about 1.1% since December compared to about 0.2% for PCE import prices. However, those values include pricing for services, which tend to have lower import intensity, so the divergence could be due to stickier services prices.”
The agency concluded “there is no clear trend break” this year in prices, despite the headlines claiming tariffs are the reason inflation remains above target.
Posted originally on Jul 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Every single person who was on the January 6th Commission that was trying to call it an insurrection to use the 14th Amendment to prevent Trump from even running for office should be hauled out and put on trial under 18 U.S. Code § 595 – Interference by administrative employees of Federal, State, or Territorial Governments. The objective of that entire committee was treasonous, and its members should be put on trial for the world to see. The judges who presided over the January 6th cases should also be disbarred. Until this is carried out, the Deep State will survive and prevail.
There can be no free society or equal protection of the law until every member of that committee is criminally charged and put on trial.
Posted originally on Jul 13, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
NEW EPISODE: Martin Armstrong's Warning for America, Geological Crisis, Europe's Collapse
Martin Armstrong of @StrongEconomics joins me to talk about the futility of neocon wars, why Europe wants to drag America into their wars, why manufacturers have moved out of America, what… pic.twitter.com/ghMSujJRIl
Posted originally on Jul 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Pam Bondi has made perhaps the most serious mistake of her entire life that she will look back on for years to come. Epstein’s saga was not some pedophile BS – it was the most sophisticated blackmail organization in modern history. As I have said before, I was personally warned that they would use women to try to get into my operation. That was back in the ’90s. This was nothing more than a honey-pot operation. It is understandable that Bondi has not found any “incriminating ‘client list‘” related to Epstein, triggering significant backlash among both Democrats and Republicans, when this was really a blackmail operation, not pedophiles.
The real question remains FOR WHOM WAS EPSTEIN OPERATING? Was this for the CIA or the Mossad? People wrongly think that releasing the “client list” will expose pedophiles. If that were the only issue, the Democrats had these files before the election and would have used them. Nevertheless, the MAGA base would like to see Trump FIRE Blondi without a doubt. She has become a massive liability and will impact the elections in 2026. Bondi has refused to tell the truth, pretending there are no files, rather than explaining that this was a blackmail scheme operating for some intelligence operation was the wrong move.
Even the Daily Mail is now reporting the chaos at the FBI and the rumblings behind the curtain that even Kash Patel and deputy Dan Bongino are considering quitting over Epstein files after a furious clash with Pam Bondi. Even though Trump had promised transparency, this is a scandal for which his presidency will also be remembered. Granted, this is far from just some pedophile operation. This one dives head-first into the Deep State.
As far as Maxwell being in jail, in New York City, found guilty following a one-month jury trial, of conspiracy to entice minors to travel to engage in illegal sex acts, conspiracy to transport minors to participate in illegal sex acts, transporting a minor to participate in illegal sex acts, sex trafficking conspiracy, and sex trafficking of a minor. CONSPIRACY is the favorite of tyrants for you do not have to prove you even committed a crime. All you need to prove is that there was an agreement – nothing more. So there does not have to be a client list. All they had to tell the jury was that Maxwell agreed with Epstein to get 16-17-year-old girls to entice their targets for blackmail. They did not have to prove that they had sex with a target. They did not have to prove that any target KNEW the girl was 17 vs 18. The jury only needs to find that you agreed to anything. Then you are guilty.
The Roman Maximinus I used Conspiracy, a crime still used by the United States, yet abandoned in Europe, Russia, and China. Conspiracy is the law of tyrants, for it allows the conviction of someone for a crime they did not commit, nor even attempted to commit, but you claim they “intended” purely as a mental state to commit in the future. Maximinus I engaged in legal persecution. He used conspiracy effectively and tore the Roman economy apart at its seams. He charged a noted Senator by the name of Magnus with conspiracy against the emperor, found him guilty, executed him, and then arrested 4,000 others, claiming they conspired with him to depose him. He then used criminal law to claim they had committed a conspiracy, and that, of course, justified confiscating all their property as well.
If you look closely, about 25% of all federal crimes are only conspiracy (18 U.S.C. § 371), where they do not have to prove you committed an actual crime, according to analyses of USSC data and reports from the Department of Justice (DOJ). The major conspiracy statute is used in drug cases, 21 U.S.C. § 846, which is most often used. Analysis of drug cases reveals that conspiracy is a dominant charge in federal drug trafficking cases, often being the primary or only charge used.
The DOJ Will Seek Death Penalties for Conspiracy
Indeed, conspiracy charges are frequently and strategically used in federal murder cases. They are a powerful tool for federal prosecutors to avoid hard evidence, often serving several critical purposes. Conspiracy charges allow prosecutors to hold all participants in a criminal agreement responsible for the murder, not just the person who pulled the trigger (the “triggerman”). Anyone remotely connected can be executed under conspiracy even if they did not know someone else was going to kill someone. One famous case in the Southern District of New York charged three separate Italian groups with conspiracy to murder the same individual, when they did not have to prove anyone killed the individual; all they had was his car left at the airport, and nobody saw him ever since. All three Italian families were found guilty with no body and just theories.
Overcoming Evidentiary Hurdles is the #1 objective of using conspiracy. Proving conspiracy (an agreement and overt acts) can sometimes be easier than proving the specific intent and act of murder itself, especially for individuals further removed from the killing. Evidence like communications, meetings, financial transactions, or preparatory actions can establish the conspiracy.
Then there is the Pinkerton Liability. Under the Pinkerton doctrine (based on Pinkerton v. United States, 328 U.S. 640 (1946)), conspirators can be held liable for foreseeable crimes committed by their co-conspirators in furtherance of the conspiracy, even if they didn’t directly participate in or intend that specific crime. This is crucial in murder cases. This is what makes the US conspiracy law the law of tyrants. They can sentence you to death for the actions of someone else with no requirement to prove you even knew, so much for justice.
Conspiracy to commit murder (often charged under 18 U.S.C. § 1117) carries a potential penalty of up to life imprisonment, or if death results, potentially the death penalty or life without parole. Conspiracy charges are not just used; they are a fundamental strategy in federal prosecutions. They allow the government to achieve its virtual 99% conviction rate. There will never be freedom in the United States until the charge of CONSPIRACY is repealed.
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