Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Jul 12 2025

Social Media Platforms


Posted originally on Jul 11, 2025 by Hannah Jackson 

Social Media

As some of you may have noticed, I am back on social media. The idea is to post video-based content of interviews (snippets) as well as shorter-form text on Twitter.

 I will be posting a story on Instagram where you can ask questions. I will be answering them on video once a month.

 The X (Twitter) account is my personal one, which I am starting to use again. The original Armstrong Economics account is also up and active.

 The official accounts are the following.

 https://www.youtube.com/@martinarmstrongae

 INSTAGRAM:
https://www.instagram.com/armstrongeconomics?utm_source=ig_web_button_share_sheet&igsh=ZDNlZDc0MzIxNw==

X (Twitter) Personal:

https://twitter.com/armstrongecon?s=21

 X(Twitter) Armstrong Economics:

TIKTOK:

@armstrongeconomics

Thank you for all of your continual support, following, and spreading of the word!

Jul 11 2025

IRS to Combine Church and State


Posted  originally on Jul 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

Politicial Corruption Ahead

The Internal Revenue Service has deemed it legal for tax-exempt places of worship to back political candidates. The Trump Administration pushed for this measure, repealing a 70-year tax code enacted in 1954 by then-Senator Lyndon Johnson known as the “Johnson B. Amendment.”

The Johnson Amendment deemed it necessary for religious organizations to maintain nonpartisan status to protect the Constitutional conditions of separation of church and state. The law forbids churches and other religious organizations from using funds to endorse political candidates. Organizations could vocally support a candidate, but by law, they were unable to financially enter politics as their tax-exempt status came with a nonpartisan clause. All of this is now changing.

“Communications from a house of worship to its congregation in connection with religious services through its usual channels of communication on matters of faith do not run afoul of the Johnson Amendment as properly interpreted,” the IRS said in the joint filing Monday with the National Religious Broadcasters group in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas.

“When a house of worship in good faith speaks to its congregation, through its customary channels of communication on matters of faith in connection with religious services, concerning electoral politics viewed through the lens of religious faith, it neither ‘participate[s]” nor ‘intervene[s]’ in a ‘political campaign,’ within the ordinary meaning of those words,” the filing said.

Last year, the National Religious Broadcasters (NRB) filed a lawsuit against the IRS, claiming that the Johnson Amendment violated their First Amendment rights. The organization believes that the First Amendment protects them from any restrictions on freedom of speech and freedom of exercise of religion. Yet, these places of worship also enjoy tax code 501(c)(3) that prevents the government from collecting taxes. In Branch Ministries v. Rossotti (2000), a church attempted to sue after its tax-exempt status was revoked for financially backing a political candidate. The court once again ruled that the Johnson Amendment did not violate the First Amendment.

The court stated that the church was not prohibited from freedom of speech, as they could vocalize their support. However, the tax benefit comes with the condition of remaining nonpartisan. The ruling found the burden was not “substantial” enough to violate constitutional protections.

Repealing the Johnson Act would drastically alter political endorsements as these religious institutions not only have massive funds to spare but could turn them into tax-deductible super PACS. Dark money would certainly flow through these organizations to alter politics as any funds to the church or religious organization could be untraceable. Foreign citizens and nations could also anonymously funnel unlimited amounts of money through these tax-deductible super PACS and directly influence domestic elections.

Jewish temples would become the new AIPAC, the Catholic Church could install their candidate of choice, which would NOT have been Donald Trump, mosques would use donations as they deemed fit, the list goes on and on.

Churches and places of worship are tax-exempt because they maintain “benevolent neutrality,” which dates back to medieval England before it was brought over to colonial America. Political donations are not charitable work or philanthropy. The IRS is attempting to blur the lines between church and state. Conservatives may think that this measure could only benefit their cause, but that is far from the truth, as what constitutes a religious organization is quite vague in the United States. Then public trust of religious institutions would erode as they would be seen as political entities. The core mission of assisting those in need would be completely lost.

Jul 11 2025

June Minutes Report Decoded


Posted  originally on Jul 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Interest Rates Percent

The Minutes Report by the Federal Reserve indicates that the central bank is unlikely to cut rates at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 29-30. FOMC members unanimously maintained the borrowing range between 4.25%-4.5% where it has stood since December 2024. The central bank knows that it has limited power to control inflation through rate cuts, and stimulating demand is a moot point when the government is the largest borrower.

Instead of noting that the government simply borrows in perpetuity, Fed members focused on uncertainty surrounding tariffs and a potentially weakening labor market. Chairman Jerome Powell stated that cutting rates was a “closer call” as the 2% inflation target as been out of reach for several years. “With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although they noted that recent higher-than-expected readings on inflation, and the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, suggested that the process could take longer than previously anticipated,” the FOMC minutes said. The last CPI reading was 2.7% with the PCE coming in at 2.4%.

The ongoing Trump v Powell feud is potentially spilling over into policy. Despite non-foreign-born citizens picking up over 2 million jobs as a direct result of deportation efforts, the Fed believes that the weakening labor market could be the result of deporting cheap labor. “Almost all participants judged that upside risks to the inflation outlook had increased. As reasons for this judgment, participants cited recent stronger-than-expected readings on inflation and the likely effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy,” the minutes said. Unemployment fell to 4.1% with June posting an increase of 147,000 jobs.

The Fed is also blaming Trump’s tariff policies for inflation. “Ultimately, the cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer,” the Fed Chair told reporters in June. “We do expect to see more of that over the course of the summer.”  Powell is confusing a one-time price adjustment with a monetary-driven inflationary wave that began in 2015 and soared after the pandemic. As previously noted, “almost all” participants saw trade policy as an upside risk to inflation. “Many participants noted that the eventual effect of tariffs on inflation could be more limited if trade deals are reached soon, if firms are able to quickly adjust their supply chains, or if firms can use other margins of adjustment to reduce their exposure to the effects of tariffs,” the Minutes stated.

A ”couple” of members stated rate cuts could happen at the next meeting, with Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller going on record to say that they believe rate cuts are appropriate this month. “Several” officials said the overnight rate “may not be far” from target, believing a bit of adjustment could bring inflation to target. The “dot plot” of individual officials indicates a divide on the outlook of cuts.

The Minutes Report noted that two rate cuts could potentially happen in 2025, followed by additional cuts over the next few years. Powell has less than a year left in office, and the president is certain to appoint someone who will abide by his policy that he sees through the eyes of a borrower and not a lender.

Jul 11 2025

American Citizens Outpace Migrants in New Hires


Posted originally on Jul 11, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Mass deportation efforts have led to a shift in hiring practices. American citizens are filling roles that were once reserved for migrants. Similar to the Civil War logic of the Democrats of that age, critics of deportation efforts claim that no one will be around to work for slave wages. Employers are now hiring American citizens to fill those same roles.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the number of foreign-born workers increased by 20% under the Biden Administration. Around 130.4 million native-born Americans were employed in May, the BLS reported, marking an astounding 4.5 million increase since May 2021, shortly after Biden opened the borders.  Around 30.9 million foreign-born held jobs in May, which is still up 5.1 million from May 2021 and 637,000 since May 2023.

Half of ALL hires for fiscal year 2024, which started on October 1, went to immigrants. Standard Chartered estimated that around 170,000 immigrants per month received employment documents from the US Citizenship and Immigration Services. They also stated that 64% of foreigners in America are currently employed, which translates to approximately 109,000 migrants per month. Last year, before Trump took office, foreigners held over 800,000 of the 3.1 million jobs created, accounting for more than 25% of new hires.

Only 16% of the US population is foreign-born. The number of jobs that went to those who crossed into the country is staggering. Since January 2025, over 2 million Americans have been able to find employment again, while 543,000 foreign-born workers have left the workforce.

Democrats are continuing to fight ICE and deportation efforts. This is one of the main reasons. Support for deportation remains high among American citizens, many of whom were struggling to find employment as they required higher wages. Without a doubt, the migrant crisis increased the level of unemployment for Americans, and it is a flat-out lie that employers would face a mass labor shortage without migrant workers.

Jul 11 2025

The EU Guarantees Its Own Destruction


Posted  originally on Jul 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Leyen Ursula von der 1

Ursula von der Leyen may be the absolute worst head of state in modern history. She has single-handedly ensured the collapse of the European Union according to our computer. She destroyed the EU economy with her NET-ZERO policies, destroying farmers and sending food prices rising. She then imposed dictatorial policies demanding migrants be taken in despite the drastic changes in culture, and then has put out the BS that to protect free speech, they must censor disinformation, to ensure peace in Euirope they need to go to war with Russia, and while she advocates total sensorship far worse than whatever existed in the USSR or even Communist China, yet refuses to release her own text messages with Pfizer.

EU Break up

While Ursula, who has never stood for election, pretends to be an elected democratic leader, calling Putin a dictator who at least stood for election, survived the NO CONFIDENCE vote to the detriment of Europe. The mere fact that this came to a vote demonstrates what our computer has been forecasting. The EU will fragment because of the dictatorial policies of Ursula. She is the perfect leader installed at the precise time that our computer warns that the EU will never survive. Her policies have been dictatorial and she has had no respect or regard for the culture of Europe. She is seeking to do what Joseph Stalin did in forces unified drone-like culture upon all the republics in Russia.

ECM Euro Waves 1 2

The ECM warns that the European Commission will reach the 72-year mark of political change in 2030. Last year, on February 19, she announced her bid to secure another five-year term, which would keep her in office until 2029. Von der Leyen has unfinished business: the transition to EU “climate neutrality,” for example, and shepherding Ukraine’s hoped-for accession to the 27-member bloc. Her policies are so contrary to economic neutrality that they have sealed the fate of the EU, and anyone who voted for her should be dragged out of office, for they do not care about Europe – only their political affiliation.

IBEUUS Y FOR 3 29 2017

Von der Leyen sees herself as untouchable. The corruption with the EU is just massive. She will put Europe into a war footing for 2026 and it is UNLIKELY that the EU will even survived intact beyond 2030. This is the array from 2017 which targeted a Panic Cycle from 2021 which marked her disastrous COVID policies that she refuses to turn over her text messages. If you are being investigated for “disinformation” and refuse to turn over subpoenaed evidence, you go to prison. Ursula is above the law and all the corrupt politicians that support her are sealing the fate of Europe into the years ahead.

Jul 10 2025

Bulgaria Adopts the Euro and Abandons Economic Sovereignty


Posted originally on Jul 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Face of Europe

Bulgaria’s adoption of the euro is a major step toward abandoning its remaining sovereignty. The European Union is akin to a drowning person clinging to anything nearby in an attempt to stay afloat. Bulgaria will become the 21st nation to adopt the euro beginning in January 2026.

Protests against the adoption have been ongoing for months. Citizens fear the spike in prices once the euro is adopted with good reason. In a population of 6.4 million, two million receive a pension of €226 a month. Net wages average only €355 a month. Bulgaria has one of the weakest economies in the EU, yet is expected to instantly adopt a currency with an official and fixed rate of 1 euro = 1.95583 lev. The nation’s GDP was 24.1% in 2024, far beneath the EU’s 60% threshold.

Bulgaria’s lev has been pegged to the euro since 1999 under a currency board arrangement. That means the country has already given up most of its monetary tools. But formally joining the euro locks in those losses—permanently. There will be no going back.

Proponents claim that Bulgaria will now have the European Central Bank’s liquidity facilities and bond purchasing programs. They tout that borrowing costs will be lower and joining will raise the nations creditworthiness. But for what? To take on more debt that they will never be able to default on?

Once Bulgaria joins, it will no longer be able to devalue its currency to remain competitive. That’s how small economies adjust in a floating system. But inside the eurozone, you’re stuck. All monetary policy decisions are made by the ECB in Frankfurt, which answers to no elected body. If Bulgaria experiences a downturn, they can’t cut rates or devalue—just like Greece in 2010. They will be told to cut pensions, raise taxes, and accept IMF mandates. That’s not sovereignty.

shutterstock_495258178

The former communist nation has a long history of political instability. In fact, there have been seven national elections in the past four years alone. Citizens have no trust in their government and do not bother with voting, as voter turnout reached only 34.4% in June 2024. The nation is also internally divided when it comes to support for Russia.

Alpha Research conducted a poll in July 2025 that found 46.5% of the population was in favor of euro adoption while 46.8% are in opposition. Eurobarometer conducted a separate poll in March 2025 that found 45% in favor and 53% against. Nationalism was already rising in Bulgaria, but this adoption of the euro will heighten the nation’s political divide as half the population does not want to surrender its identity to Brussels.

Adopting the euro is a politically motivated rather than a strategic economic move. Bulgaria has lost its remaining freedom from the EU and surrendered all economic freedoms.

Jul 10 2025

Former UK Prime Minister Returns to Goldman


Posted originally on Jul 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Sunak Rishi

The door continues to revolve at Goldman Sachs as former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced he is returning to the firm as a senior advisor. Goldman Sachs has successfully penetrated governments globally. The revolving door is deep, systemic, and a clear conflict of interest that will never be addressed.

“I am excited to welcome Rishi back to Goldman Sachs in his new capacity as a Senior Advisor,” David Solomon, chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs, said in a statement. “In his role, he will work with leaders across the firm to advise our clients globally on a range of important topics, sharing his unique perspectives and insights on the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape,” he added. Rishi formerly worked for Goldman before entering the UK parliament in 2015. He then went on to hold numerous positions of power, including acting as the nation’s finance minister. In fact, Rishi is STILL a member of the UK parliament even though he stepped down from his role as the leader of the Conservative Party.

Rishi attempted to return to Goldman this past May but a government watchdog agency insisted he wait a year as his advise could “overlap” with his political obligations and his “appointment could be seen to offer unfair access and influence within the UK government.”

That is how Goldman operates. The Revolving Door Project created an Independent Federal Agencies Leadership Tracker to show how often government employees swing back and forth between their positions at Goldman and the government. This is a global issue that spans across party lines.

GoldmanSachs

There has NEVER been any investigation of former Goldman Sachs people who take strategic government positions and alter policy only to leave. Robert Rubin ushered through the repeal of Glass-Steagall and resigned. Hank Paulson saved AIG, whose default would have taken down Goldman, while he eliminated two top Goldman competitors over who had the authority to bailout Lehman and Bear. There was no authority to bail out an insurance company operating in London, no less, to skirt US regulation. Even the seizure of our former company, Princeton Economics, was run by a court-appointed receiver who was a full-time board member of Goldman Sachs – Alan Cohen.

Yet, the burning question is simple. Is Goldman or its people going just too far? Their “former” people seem to be controlling the world financial system. Why is that so many people come from the same firm? Nobody will investigate because Goldman is simply one of the too big to jail and otherwise known as the Untouchable.

Goldman traded against clients

It would be very nice if someone simply conducted an investigation to see what perks these people collect after they leave government service. But why should anyone do that? Everyone in Washington and the Department of Just Us dreams of getting a job at Goldman. Every charge filed against Goldman has been dropped or paid off. They not only control the politicians but also every regulatory agency.

Again, Goldman has infiltrated every single government. It helped in structuring the euro, for example, and was accused of hiding the debt of Greece to permit it to enter the EU. Luckily Petros Christodoulou worked for the nation’s public debt management agency and led the National Bank of Greece after working for Goldman Sachs.

Mario Draghi, former PM of Italy, President of the European Central Bank, and Governor of the Bank of Italy worked as the Vice Chairman at Goldman Sachs International. Former Prime Minister of Italy and EU Commissioner Mario Monti was an international adviser at Goldman. Again, another former Italian Prime Minister, Romando Prodi, worked for Goldman and later became the President of the European Commission.

Revolving Door

Former European Union leader José Manuel Barroso went back and forth from Goldman to politics. Canada’s Mark Carney is a former employee. In the US, you have Robert Rubin, Gary Gohn, Steve Mnuchin, Jon Corzine, Jim Himes, Steve Bannon – the list goes on.

Germany’s Alice Weidel is called far-left and anti-establishment for being the head of the AfD but she too is a former Goldman employee. Malcolm Turnbull, who previously headed Goldman Sachs Australia, later became the Prime Minister of Australia and Minister for the Environment. Montenegro’s PM Milojko Spaijic is Goldman, as is Sweden’s Minister of Finance Erik Asbrink and Nigeria’s Minister of Finance Olusegun Agana. The head of international affairs at Goldman, Robert Zoellick, even went on to become the President of the World Bank and US Trade Representative, Deputy Secretary of State.

The revolving door is never-ending. It seems like it’s only a matter of time before the conspiracy theories finally give up on bashing the Rothschilds and open their eyes to who really has the power to be a mover and shaker.

Jul 10 2025

Jeffrey Epstein Did Not Kill Himself


Posted originally on Jul 10, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

(Pam Bondi in February 2025)

Jeffrey Epstein carried out the most successful, deeply rooted blackmail operation in modern history. US intelligence agencies suddenly pivoted to say that Jeffrey Epstein never kept a client list, did not blackmail political figures, and was not murdered. Epstein’s case has been deemed a conspiracy by the deep state, but the truth of the matter is that his connection runs so deeply that unveiling the plethora of information he kept could topple governments.

Those familiar with my writings are aware of “The Club,” a group of powerful market manipulators who possess the financial means to create shadow governments. Robert Maxwell is Ghislaine Maxwell’s father with deep ties to Mossad. In an earlier post, I explained in detail Maxwell’s connection to the Club, Goldman Sachs, Lehman, Safra, and other major players. “The Plot to Seize Russia” also details his connections that tie into the deep state intelligence agencies. Epstein Island was far more than a pedophile ring.

(Pam Bondi in February 2025)
Maxwell

I believe Epstein was running one of the largest honeypot schemes in modern history. He likely offered two big services: one being the most detestable crime known to man, and the other being the service of blackmail. He used his money and connections to grow his successful operation and was protected by his powerful clients. The blackmail he compiled on countless elites is now in the hands of the US government.

ClintonEpsteinMaxwell
Gates Epstein Photo
EpsteinwithTrumpMaxwell

Everyone visited Epstein Island on both sides of the aisle of government. I’d imagine the majority of major public figures would be on the Epstein list to some capacity. The FBI and CIA have been sitting on a mountain of evidence for years. Not a single person, besides Ghislaine Maxwell, has been arrested or prosecuted. Maxwell is serving a 20-year sentence for trafficking children to no one? We know of numerous high-profile members of Epstein’s inner circle already but they have neither been canceled or investigated. The government began deliberately releasing information incrementally to distract the public from bigger issues. These news stories reach every outlet GLOBALLY, but nothing ever comes of it.

EpsteinBinders

The Trump Administration put on quite a show by handing out binders filled with alleged classified information on Epstein. “This material… is never going to be released. Never going to see the light of day,” AG Pam Bondi recently stated. Yet in February 2025, Bondi said that the new administration wanted the public to have transparency regarding the Epstein files. “It’s a new administration and everything is going to come out to the public,” further suggesting imminent disclosure of significant new information related to Epstein’s case. She clearly stated that there was, in fact, a client list that would be released to the public.

The US justice system acknowledged the crime when Maxwell was indicted in 2021:

  1. The charges set forth herein ster fron the role of GHISLAINE MAXWELL, the defendant, in the sexual exploitation and abuse of multiple minor girl’s by Jeffrey Epstein. In particular, fron at least in or about 1994, up to and including at least in or about 2004, MAXWELL assisted, facilitated, and contributed to Jeffrey Epstein’s abuse of minor girls by, among other things, helping Epstein to recruit, groom, and ultimately abuse victims known to MAXWELL and Epstein to be under the age of 18. The victims were as young as 14 years old when they were groomed and abused by MAXWELL and Epstein, both of whom knew that certain victims were in fact under the age of 18.
  2. As a part and in furtherance of their scheme to abuse minor victims, GHISLAINE MAXWELL, the defendant, and Jeffrey Epstein enticed and caused minor victims to travel to Epstein’s residences in different states, which MAXWELL knew and Intended would result in their grooming for and subjection to sexual abuse. Moreover, in an effort to conceal her crimes, MAXWELL repeatedly lied when questioned about her conduct, including in relation to some of the minor victims described herein, when providing testimony and under oath in 2016.
Epstein when will he die

I am the ONLY person who can speak with any authoritative knowledge of 10 South – the “HOLE” where Jeffrey Epstein supposedly killed himself, which is a joke! When they were taking my lawyers away, they did not want them to talk to me. They amazingly put me in 10 South with all the terrorists, which is the MOST SECURE facility in New York City – PERIOD! They later said they had no idea how I got there. This is where the Feds love to torture people. Let me make a fundamental statement that nobody in the media talks about. They have a SPECIAL ROOM for people on suicide watch. Epstein was not in that cell. It has a large concrete bed with perhaps a 1-inch plastic mattress. Your hands and feet are tied, so you cannot harm yourself. I was in the hole there not on criminal charges or anything – but in civil contempt of court, thrown in with the terrorists from the World Trade Center attack – the 1st one. I was not in the suicide cell – you knew that was the ultimate torture chamber.

On July 25th, 2019, I warned that Epstein would NEVER be allowed to go to trial. They tried to kill me, but I survived after being in a coma for several days. This is what they do when they cannot take you to trial. Remember the torture they were doing in Abu Ghraib? The US pays professionals to learn how to torture. Guantanamo Bay would be an empty prison if they were guilty. They would put them on trial publicly and pump up the press and the prosecutors would become famous and then run for political office. Their best case was put on trial, and the jury found him innocent of over 200 charges and guilty of only one count of conspiracy.

VanceEpstein

Epstein would have been able to call everyone to the court as a witness. It would have been the most sensational trial in history. There was no way he would be allowed to go to trial. From inside sources on Capitol Hill, I was told they tried to release Guantanamo Bay prisoners quietly, but they were killed back home, assuming they were converted to CIA spies. They have been completely denied Due Process of law and anything that remotely resembles human rights. The entire video surveillance on Jeffrey Epstein that was released is not only fake, but there is a key minute missing. Then they claim that the two guards supervising the highest profile prisoner were asleep on the job. The guards were not punished because they cooperated.

Jeffrey Epstein DID NOT KILL HIMSELF.

Donald Trump’s sudden pivot on the Epstein case comes at the same time as Netanyahu’s visit–no surprise there. The US government may have seized the files from Epstein Island, but Epstein was working for Mossad, and they, too, have all the information. The ties are absolutely everywhere, and no one in the US government will ever allow the Epstein trial to see the light of day. So now the entire Epstein Island debacle has been classified as a conspiracy to protect the deep state. Confidence in government has been permanently undermined.

Jul 10 2025

The 2025 World Economic Conference – Save the Date!


Posted originally on Jul 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Save the date

We’re pleased to announce that the next World Economic Conference will be held in:

Orlando, Florida on November 21– 23, 2025

As many of you know, the WEC is not your typical financial conference. It’s where we bring together minds from around the world—investors, analysts, and policymakers—to explore how capital truly moves across borders, markets, and cycles. This is your chance to understand what Socrates sees ahead before the rest of the world catches up.

Tickets go on sale to the public on Tuesday, July 29.

These events typically sell out quickly, and with growing global demand and virtual attendance now available, we recommend acting early. Whether you’re attending in person or online, this year’s WEC promises crucial insight into where we stand on the Economic Confidence Model—and where we’re going.

Stay tuned for more details!

We look forward to seeing you in Orlando.

WEC Conference 2011

C

Jul 9 2025

Inflationary Pressures Began After 2015 – Tariffs are a Distraction


Posted originally on Jul 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

ECM 2015 2020 Detailed

The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations foresees inflation returning to “pre-tariff” levels. As I have mentioned, the rising costs were a mere price correction and not a permanent rise in inflation. Tariffs were NEVER the root cause of inflation.

The central bank predicts that inflation will read 3% in 13 months, which would be the same level of inflation—at least by the Fed’s calculations—since Trump entered the White House. The Fed was stating that prices would rise 3.6% back in March and April when the tariffs were announced. They blamed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff for the Great Depression, just like they’re now blaming Trump’s tariffs for inflation. It’s a political narrative.

Central bank members see inflation remaining unchanged over the next three to five years at 3% and 2.6% respectively. However, members see prices increasing in food (5.5%), medical (9.3%), gas (4.2%), rent (9.1%), and college tuition (9.1%). There is a plethora of factors leading to inflation in the aforementioned categories, none of which have any relation to tariffs.

BIG BANG ECM 2015.75

Prices have simply not returned to what they once were before the global economy came to a standstill during COVID. Every nation has been affected. The lockdowns and supply chain cracks were exacerbated by a massive increase of government spending. Then the government doubled down on green policies, causing energy prices to rise, and lit the situation ablaze amid the Ukraine war and Russian sanctions. The world was already amid a sovereign debt crisis before COVID, and in fact, the Economic Confidence Model clearly stated that the landscape would permanently change after the Big Bang target of October 1, 2015 (2015.75)—the peak in government confidence.

2015.75 was the beginning of the decline we are witnessing in sovereign bonds globally. The migrant crisis began in 2015 when former German Chancellor Angela Merkel invited Syrian refugees to Europe, leading other Build Back Better nations to follow suit in the years since. Anti-establishment sentiment was already on the rise when Trump first secured the presidency the following year in 2016.

Trump was not the cause, he was the symptom. The people lost faith in the establishment starting in 2015.75 and this is part of the global shift predicted precisely by the system. The Fed thinks inflation is a monetary issue. We are in a sovereign debt crisis, a confidence crisis, and a geopolitical storm and not a normal business cycle.