Labor Report Shows 263,000 Jobs Added in November, Combined with Significant Wage Growth 0.6% For Month


Posted originally on the CTH on December 2, 2022 | Sundance 

There’s a disconnect in the Main Street data that is perplexing from the standpoint of traditional economic and labor analysis.

There have been significant layoffs in the labor market as the result of diminished consumer spending activity. However, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) is reporting a hotter than expected 263,000 new jobs in November [DATA HERE].

There were declines in jobs within the retail sector [-30,000 in Nov, -62,000 since August] and declines in warehousing and transportation [-15, 000 in November, -30,000 since July], which would indicate the outcome of lowered consumer spending on goods, or at least a change in consumer spending priorities.

Simultaneously, there were significant increases in jobs for leisure and hospitality [+88,000 in Nov], with the majority of those gains in food service and drinking.  However, that sector is still lower than the pre-pandemic by -980,000 jobs.  Also note people are not attending events with high ticket costs, the performing arts and spectator sports segment dropped 7,000 jobs [Table B-1]

Overall, if you were to look at the macro level jobs report, anything attached to the traditional spending of durable goods (retail stores) is declining.  However, the jobs related to the service or life experience are growing.  Oddly, and perhaps creepily, this dynamic falls in line with the ‘you will own nothing and be happy‘ cliche’ that has been oft spoken about the new post pandemic ‘Build Back Better‘ economy as espoused by the World Economic Forum.

Job gains in the infrastructure of life such as, building and construction, as well as the labor sector associated with skilled domestic service trades like plumbing, electricians, maintenance, etc are continuing to hold stable.  The major shift in the labor market surrounds the buying of durable goods which has disappeared along with the disappearance of discretionary income.   Which brings us to the wage portion of the BLS report.

Wage growth was a very high 0.6% for November and brings the annual rate of wage growth to 5.1%.   This outcome is almost certainly an outcome of workers demanding higher pay to cope with inflation, and employers needing to raise their wage rates in order to retain employees.

We also see an increase in the number of workers holding multiple jobs, as individuals are taking second jobs to cope with massive price increases in housing, food, fuel and energy. As noted within the BLS data:

In November, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls declined by 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours. In manufacturing, the average workweek for all employees decreased by 0.2 hour to 40.2 hours, and overtime declined by 0.1 hour to 3.1 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 0.1 hour to 33.9 hours.”

Fewer people are working, but more jobs are being worked – with lowered hours.

Higher wages are good; however, higher wages lead to higher prices for goods and services; which drives inflation higher, which creates the need for higher wages.   It’s an upward pressure spiral.

The supply side pressure on inflation, almost exclusively created by the BBB energy policy, shows absolutely no sign of lessening, despite the drop in demand for domestically produced finished consumer goods which has lowered overall industrial demand for energy.

The Build Back Better energy driven policy changes are creating very weird economic outcomes.

Prices are rising.  Consumers are squeezed.  Jobs attached to spending on goods are declining. Jobs attached to life experience and services expanding.

Ex.1 If you are working two jobs, now you might not have time to mow your grass – so you hire a lawn service.  The lawn service guys are charging more because the gasoline and business costs are higher…. which means you need to work a little longer at the second job to pay for the lawn service you don’t have time to do on your own because you need to work the second job.   That’s the dynamic we are seeing in the quantification of labor and job growth.

Ex.2 If you are working two jobs, you might not be cooking as much at home.  So, you grab dinner/lunch away from home.  The restaurants are charging more because the business costs are higher…. which means you need to work a little longer, ask for higher wages, in order to offset the time you don’t have to eat lunch/dinner at home.

This conflicting duality is what I always called the “serfesque driven economy.”  It is an outcome of erosion of the middle-class.  A status of individuality where your desires for life experience determine the need for your income.

You don’t own a car, you Uber.  You don’t own a house, you rent.  You don’t need a kitchen, you eat out.  Things seem ok, but you eventually become a serf to the people who control transportation costs, housing costs, food costs, etc.  Ultimately you have no control over the time you want to spend in enjoyment, because you don’t own the mechanisms of your life and need to work in order to afford maintaining the costs.  It’s a weird mental exercise.

There is a real outcome in this dynamic where the wealth gap increases.

Gov. Kristi Noem warns of ‘alarming’ impact of vaccine mandates on military readiness


Ainsley Earhardt Published originally on Rumble on December 2, 2022

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem explains Republican governors’ efforts to push Congress to drop the COVID vaccine mandate for members of the military. Noem also discusses her recent ban on TikTok for state agencies.

Secrets of the Universe


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles Re-Posted Dec 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Martin –
Thank you for your efforts to write your discoveries down into publications so that they will be available for the benefit of civilization after you have passed on. I am very much looking forward the “The Geometry of Time”. Like many groundbreaking thinkers of the past, you may end up being someone who suffered resistance and exploitation during your lifetime for your ideas, but who was respected for their contribution long after. And if you are given an ear by governments when this debt crisis blossoms and their backs are finally against the wall, it wont hurt to have polished manuscripts of all your work, backed up by all the the historical evidence of its validity, to pass-out to them. In fact, that may be the point where you can, late in life, make you biggest lasting contribution. If governments, central banks, and economists would give real consideration to how historically accurate your analysis of cycles has been and to your solution to the debt crisis, and if there is by-then a large number of your publications of your legacy-knowledge in circulation, your work may finally grow from ‘cultish’ adoption to more widespread adoption.

That, IMHO, would be a good thing for everyone (and for their children to-come).

SC

REPLY: Thank you. I have learned over the years that I cannot change things. When I was called in back in 1985 and they were creating the G5 (now G20), at first I thought – Wow! I made it! Then you realize that after everyone testifies, they stand up and announce their predetermined conclusion. So I wrote to Reagan because the conclusions were nothing that anyone testified about. I was told that I went out of committee and I would never be called again. I replied, good! Who needs this!

Anyone who claims they advise the CIA or whatever, they do not listen. I have been called only because I wrote to Reagan and told them to screw off. The people they pay are just pawns. Every bill they pass needs some study and they tell you what the conclusion is today. They said back in 1985 if I was a “good boy” I could earn $5 million a year. I said no thanks.

Because I wrote to Reagan back in 1985, when the 1987 Crash took place they were forced to call me since our model forecasted that even right to the day – which was the ECM target.

Ever since we get called when they want the TRUTH rather than someone who will say whatever they need to keep the fees flowing.

Like Keynes, before the Great Depression, they considered his ideas as absurd. When it all comes crashing down, then, and only then, will they consider adopting the ECM and living with the cycle instead of fighting it. The Secret of the Universe is that absolutely EVERYTHING is cyclical.

I have three more books to finish. The Geometry of time, The ECM Book, and In the Blink of an Eye. Dealing with so many governments around the world over the past 40 years has indeed given me both a front-row seat and a unique perspective. All I can do is hope to pass this along for what comes after 2032 when we get to hit the Cntrl-Alt-Delete button on governmental structures and redesign this mess from scratch once again.

If You Wonder What’s Wrong With Georgia – The Republican Lt Governor Appears on CNN to Tell Georgia Republicans Not to Vote for Hershel Walker


Posted originally on the CTH on December 1, 2022 | Sundance

People around the country are looking at the Georgia Senate runoff between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Hershel Walker.  Lots of people wondering what is going on.  Well, last night the Republican Party of Georgia gave an excellent example of what it means to be Republican in Georgia.

Republican Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan appeared on CNN to share his opinion of Republican candidate Hershel Walker.  As Republican Duncan outlined during the interview, he stood in line for an hour, took a ballot at the polling location, and then decided he could just not vote for a Republican in Georgia, so he turned around and walked back out without voting.

Republican Geoff Duncan had no issue pushing this on CNN much to the smiles of the CNN producers, Democrats and the Warnock campaign.  This is what it means to be a Republican in Georgia.  WATCH (01:08 prompted 30 seconds)

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The 2022 goal of the Republican Party of Georgia is in alignment with the 2022 Republican National Committee.   The goal of Mr. Duncan and others is to remove the populist movement within the RNC by destroying the Make America Great Again grassroots movement.

Was Duncan censured? No.  Was Duncan criticized by fellow Republicans? Again, no.   Was Duncan ostracized for promoting an election position against the interests of the Republican Party? Yet again, no.  Did RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel rebuke the effort to undermine Walker as carried out by Republican Geoff Duncan?  Rhetorical at this point, I know.

In the bigger or big pictures, Republican Lt Governor Geoff Duncan is doing what professional Republicans do.  He also knows there’s nothing to fear from it because he is operating on behalf of the majority Club interests who support his agenda.  However, somehow this will be President Trump’s fault.

Another Appeals Court Rejects Biden Administration Student Loan Cancellation Program – Supreme Court Agrees to Hear Case in February


Posted originally on the CTH on December 1, 2022 | Sundance

Federal education loan payments have been suspended ever since early 2020 when COVID was used as a justification to delay payments.  The current extension on the delay, a pre midterm bribe for young adults, runs through June 2023 and then people with the loans have to start paying again.

In the interim, Joe Biden had a plan to relieve up to $10,000 in federal student loans for low-to-middle-income borrowers and up to $20,000 for qualifying Pell Grant recipients.  However, that arbitrary Biden decree encountered multiple legal setbacks including rejection by a federal court in St. Louis and another in Texas.

Earlier today, the New Orleans-based 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals again rejected the Biden administration’s request to pause the Texas order vacating the $400 billion student debt relief program in a lawsuit pursued by a conservative advocacy group. {LINK}  The Texas ruling from U.S. District Judge Mark Pittman was one of two decisions that prevented the Department of Education from moving forward.

The St Louis case, also lost on appeal and based on a similar finding that Biden cannot subvert congress for this spending, has now travelled to the Supreme Court who have agreed to hear oral arguments in February but will not intervene to stop the lower court rulings.

Washington — The Supreme Court said Thursday it will take up a court fight between the Biden administration and a coalition of six Republican-led states challenging the legality of the president’s student loan forgiveness program.

Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar asked the Supreme Court last month to lift an injunction from a federal appeals court that blocked implementation of the plan, but told the court that if it denied relief, it should agree to consider the merits of the case instead.

The court said in a brief order that it will hear arguments in February but will keep the program on hold for now. Last week, President Biden extended his pause on federal student loan payments until June 30, 2023, to give the court time to consider the dispute.

“We welcome the Supreme Court’s decision to hear the case on our student debt relief plan for middle- and working-class borrowers this February,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said. “This program is necessary to help over 40 million eligible Americans struggling under the burden of student loan debt recover from the pandemic and move forward with their lives. The program is also legal, supported by careful analysis from administration lawyers.” (more)

In response to the decision from the Texas court, the Biden administration announced it had stopped accepting applications for the debt relief program.

Mike Lindell Discusses More Details and Proposals for His RNC Chairman Bid


Posted originally on the CTH on December 1, 2022 | sundance

Having previously announced his intention to run for Chair of the Republican National Committee, Mike Lindell appears on a podcast with Jenna Ellis to discuss his specific proposals to reform the RNC and create a more effective election organization. {Direct Rumble Link}

In this interview Mr. Lindell discusses what he would do differently and the shakeup that he sees needed in order to realign the priority of the RNC. WATCH:

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Mitch McConnell Uses Mar-a-Lago Ambush to Hit President Trump


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 29, 2022 | Sundance

As NBC has now outlined in detail, a trio of dubious characters leveraged President Trump’s previous support for troubled Kanye West as an opportunity for an intentional smear campaign construct by Milo Yiannopoulos, Nick Fuentes and Kanye West himself. [Details Here]  Mr. West, now known as Ye, intended to make trouble by bringing uninvited guests along to carry out the operation.

The media and political opposition gleefully latched on to the successful targeting operation, in an effort to smear Donald Trump.  In typical Alinsky fashion, the goal is to controversialize the operational target.  Senator Mitch McConnell followed up today with his own pile on supported by his Senate leadership.

Given Mitch’s well known use of fabricated political racism to attack Republicans who do not bend a knee to him, his statements are pure skullduggery.

CTH has been warning about the scheming conniving Mitch McConnell for well over a decade.

While no one except Donald Trump is at fault for trusting Kanye West, you can clearly see how the entire apparatus of DC politics is working in concert to retain power and remove the threat that President Trump represents.

Hired by the RNC, Harmeet Dhillon Teams Up with the Mitch McConnell Contracted Enforcer Who Destroyed the Tea Party


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 29, 2022 | Sundance

Obviously, the RNC Club realizes they have a problem.  They are majority funded by major billionaire donors who are opposed to the MAGA populist movement within the group.  People are awake to the dynamic.

RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel is also facing scrutiny for her inept party efforts in previous elections. Specifically scrutinized for not having any action plan to combat ballot assembly and collection and being hopelessly outmatched by the organized DNC.

In a transparent effort at damage control, RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel has enlisted Harmeet Dhillon and Henry Barbour to lead an internal club effort under the auspices of performing a midterm autopsy. [Politico Article]  However, the larger picture of intent gains clarity when looking at the participants.

In the first of a series of Tweets earlier today, Harmeet Dhillon noted she had moved on from failed legal efforts in Arizona, to focus on Georgia:

Let’s be very clear about something here.  Henry Barbour is not just some political consultant to partner with.  Henry Barbour is the nephew of the notoriously corrupt former Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, aka ‘Boss Hog‘.  Henry is also the attack dog hired by Mitch McConnell to use PACs to attack and destroy the Tea Party movement.

Henry Barbour was the architect of Mississippi attacks against Chris McDaniel on behalf of Mitch’s friend in the senate, Thad Cochran. {Citation}  Henry Barbour worked with Democrats in Mississippi and Georgia to construct racist attack ads against conservative Republican candidates {Citation}.

The entire Barbour clan, including Henry and Uncle Haley, have sketchy connections to various DC lobbying groups representing very dubious clients, including Amgen to help China {citation}, Qualcom to help China via Huwai {Citation} and BGR Government Affairs, a front group to help the Chinese Communist Party {Citation}.  As a bagman for corrupt political endeavors, Henry Barbour goes where the money is and attacks on behalf of his paid interests.

However, beyond the DC lobbying, Henry Barbour is a contract operative of Mitch McConnell, and as previously mentioned was instrumental in destroying the Tea Party movement in 2012 through 2014 as instructed and financed by Senate Leader McConnell.

(Clarion Ledger) – […] The Mississippi Conservatives PAC, under Barbour’s direction, funded (through illegal means) various operatives and organizations of dubious background to implement a deliberate and premeditated strategy of vicious race-baiting and fear mongering over issues of race during the runoff election between incumbent Thad Cochran and challenger Chris McDaniel. Henry Barbour deliberately chose to use well-known Democrat operatives and organizations in a character assassination scheme — the kind that the professional Left has perfected, and which Republicans abhor — in order to destroy the reputation of a loyal, fellow Republican, a current Mississippi state legislator in good standing and a Republican Party member since the age of 13, whose only offense was to announce and run for a Senate seat held by an incumbent Republican. (more)

Considering the 2022 MAGA populist movement is essentially in the same target field as the 2014 Tea Party; the billionaire donors to the RNC have admitted this goal; the open and willful alignment between Harmeet Dhillon and a character like Henry Barbour, with a known intent to maintain corporate establishment political priorities, sets off massive alarms.

That’s the initial takeaway from that first announcement by Dhillon earlier today.  More information from the Dhillon thread is below:

How could Harmeet Dhillon possibly claim representation for the grassroots (MAGA) activists, while teaming up with Henry Barbour who is the paid political operative intent on destroying those same grassroots (MAGA) activists?

It’s not an old ideology for Henry Barbour that he just dropped after the paid effort to destroy the Tea Party.  Henry Barbour carries that same anti-MAGA theme throughout all the years to today {citation}.

The alignment makes no sense at all.

No one with any goal of representing the “base voter” of the Republican Party would ever consider working with any Barbour, let alone Henry Barbour.

Questions were asked.

Then more sunlight appeared.

Harmeet Dhillon’s law firm partner is Ron Coleman who came immediately to her defense when questions started to be asked.

After a series of very obtuse statements, one of which implied that Henry Barbour was a client of the law firm, which was then denied by Coleman, then reversed to a position to present a Tweet that provides even more sunlight. {citation}

“Harmeet Dhillon and Henry Barbour are both members of the Republican National Committee. And yes, our firm represents the RNC.”

Harmeet Dhillon and Ron Coleman represent the RNC.  Now things start to take on a new dimension.

If you believe the interests of the RNC are to align and support the MAGA candidates, then this relationship would seem innocuous.  Harmeet Dhillon is under client contract with the RNC.  Dhillon works for the RNC, not the candidate.

However, if you accept that the interests of the RNC as a private club are *not* necessarily in alignment with supporting the MAGA candidates, then suddenly the weak legal defenses afforded to the grassroots candidates starts to take on a differing perspective.

With the diminished trust level of voters toward the RNC; combined with a pattern and history of weak legal defenses; then failing by intent starts to become part of the larger possibility.

Knowing that Mrs. Harmeet Dhillon is a lawyer representing the interests of Ronna McDaniel and the private RNC corporation, the lack of legal effort, vigor, and a pattern of consistent legal losses toward the MAGA Republican candidates starts to take on some clarity.

The RNC is in somewhat of the driver’s seat in this contested election dynamic.  Unless the candidate can afford on their own to fund the legal challenges to the situations they encounter, they are essentially dependent on the RNC to assist them legally.  If the RNC intentionally torpedoes the legal effort, the candidate is without a support mechanism.

Did that happen in Arizona?  Was MAGA candidate Kari Lake a victim of what Machiavelli called “lukewarm defenders?”  Has there been a seemingly transparent pattern of poor legal pushback and challenges from the RNC in recent elections?  You decide.

Regardless, Arizona has been abandoned by the RNC and, according to the priorities of Harmeet Dhillon, they have moved on to repeat the operational success in Georgia.  Perhaps in Georgia the RNC effort to support MAGA candidate Hershel Walker will be more effective than the RNC legal effort to support Kari Lake in Arizona.

Again, you decide what Georgia outcome is likely in the party interest.

For me, I find the sentiment by Steve Deace to be most in line with historic reference. “The GOP would rather lose to Democrats than lose control of the party to its base”, after all “that’s what electable means – someone they approve of.”

Additionally, standing back and looking at the bigger picture, what does become obvious from this Dhillon-RNC attorney-client relationship is the reason why Harmeet Dhillon would be teaming up with Henry Barbour.  They have both been selected by Ronna McDaniel to head up the creation of the next phase planning for the billionaire funded RNC.

Remember, post Citizens United, the RNC doesn’t need small donor contributions to run operations.  The RNC relies on massive corporate donations to fund their priorities.  By agreement, the RNC also gets a portion of the campaign funds raised by each of the respective Republican candidates.  If you are withholding direct contributions to the RNC, it means nothing to them.  Small dollar donations are only valuable to the club insofar as they politically hide the scale of the multinational donations when reports show average contributions.

Which brings me to the final point…

Knowing that attorney Harmeet Dhillon was hired by the RNC, specifically hired by Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, when Mrs. Dhillon says she will “take views to heart” when she votes next month at the RNC winter meeting for the next chairperson, do you really think she will vote against her client?

Prepare…


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 29, 2022 | Sundance

My apologies for the light posting today.

The well-used machete blade may be dull this evening, but the clearing we achieved is sweet.

Trust me, no one is hitting refresh on the CTH website more than the DC apparatus of the professionally Republican tonight.

The receipts are coming next, and they will explain everything.

The truth has no agenda. 

Chang: China Protests Are Revolutionary


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on Newsmax TV Published November 28, 2022

People are pushing back hard against the CCP’s zero-Covid policy. Gordon Chang joins us to discuss the government’s brutal crackdown and the intense pressure mounting on President Xi.