Category World Economic Form

Mar 23 2020

Is it Even Possible to Predict a 10-Year Plan?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Mar 21, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr Armstrong,
I have been following your blog since I saw The Forecaster four years ago. Last fall, I was fortunate enough to attend the WEC in Orlando. I did my best to keep up with the information presented, but it was a lot, fast. Nonetheless, I am a more informed person for attending. I have come to really respect and appreciate your perspective and practical approach. As such, I have two things that I wanted to share (one comment, one question).

First, I am in the military, stationed in Maryland. However, I still retain my Nebraska residency. I am working from home, teleworking during the COVID-19 event, which has given me time to read, reflect and consider the magnitude of the fallout stemming from actions taken to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus. As a result, I forwarded your Letter to President Trump to Senator Sasse, Senator Fischer, and to my Congressman Jeff Fortenberry. I don’t know what is afoot in all of this, but something smells extremely fishy. I was supposed to get married next Saturday in the Philippines, but this whole debacle changed that. Yet, I digress. I just wanted you to know that I agree with what you proposed and took action.

Second, I am part of the team responsible for writing a 10-year strategic plan for the Air National Guard. I keep trying to wrap my brain around the cycle trends creating the environment in which we will be living in 2030. Do you have any recommendations you could pass along regarding how to craft a strategic vision for the next 10 years so that we can be postured to best serve our local communities and our National Defense as we navigate through the tremendous changes that lie ahead?

Thank you so much for your heart to serve others and for the tremendous information, you make available to those of us trying to make sense of the world.
Sincerely,
D

ANSWER: I would never have imagined even if I was a fiction novelist that something like this absurd could undermine the world economy without (1) ever firing a shot and (2) less than 20,000 people have died from a flu-like virus. If I had written such a novel using this plot, I doubt anyone would have published it. It just sounds too stupid. Rest assured. I am running every model. It will take Socrates to call this one. Anything else is just human opinion, which at this stage in the game, is highly dangerous for I have been in this game for about 50 years and I have never witnessed a crash with no fundamental logic at all.

The 1987 Crash, at least the rumors were that the president was assassinated or Russia just invaded Europe and communications were down. But those were panic events that lasted a day. This is different. This is being orchestrated as if it were a plot to destroy the economy and most heads of state are not in the loop.

This is very strange. There is no evidence that this is even a major threat. It is a pandemic but nowhere near a far more serious epidemic (proportion of population v only geographic) It has subsided in China and we have staff there on the ground. We have staff strategically placed around the world so we have our own boots on the ground to rely on for eye-witness accounts – not media. It’s going crazy in Berlin where we also have staff. The panic level is absurd. They have people thinking if they contract it, they die.

There is a grab for power here which is disproportionate to the evidence. We are cascading toward a virtual dictatorship in Europe particularly. Even austerity has been abandoned which would have been impossible without this type of panic. That may be one covert objective.

This is better than any plot for a James Bond movie because nobody would have believed that you could scare the hell out of the world so easily.

 

Mar 23 2020

Angela Merkel Now Quarantined After Doctor Tests Positive for Chinese Coronavirus….


Posted originally on The Conservative Tree House on March 22, 2020 by 

The leader of the most powerful nation in the EU, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, is now in quarantine after her personal physician tests positive for the Wuhan Virus.

BERLIN (AP) — German Chancellor Angela Merkel has gone into quarantine after being informed that a doctor who administered a vaccine to her has tested positive for the new coronavirus.

Merkel, 65, was informed about the doctor’s test shortly after holding a news conference Sunday announcing new measures to curb the spread of the virus, her spokesman Steffen Seibert said.  He said that Merkel had received a precautionary vaccine Friday against pneumococcal infection.

[…] Merkel on Sunday thanked “the overwhelming majority” of Germans who were following rules on social distancing to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

“I know that it means sacrifice,” she said, citing the economic and social costs that the lockdown is having. “I’m moved by the fact that so many are abiding by these rules. This way we show care for older and sick people, because the virus is most dangerous to them. In short: we are saving lives with this.”

Merkel said the lockdown had already affected her profoudly, too.

“My life has also fundamentally changed and now consists largely of phone calls and video conferences,” she said.  (read more)

Mar 22 2020

Is the Arrogance Over Quarantine Leading to Social Unrest?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease

Re-Posted Mar 21, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, in previous months you made mention that Socrates was pointing to June/July as a time of civil unrest in the states, do you think these recent events are what will be the ultimate trigger here? the initial speculation that the conventions would be taking place around the time of the unrest made sense at the time but I’m beginning to fear we are going to be in a police state slowly being stripped of more and more until the masses say enough is enough, 3 months time seems about right to me. thanks for all that you provide.

JF

ANSWER: Riots are beginning in different places and are being reported by clients, not the press. The youth is protesting against the virus restrictions that the medical industry only looks at from their perspective without considering the social or economic consequences. Sure, if we all distance ourselves, stay home, and shut down the world economy, we can beat the common cold. But how will people eat? Who grows the food? Who distributes it? I find it very arrogant for claimed medical professionals and organizations to argue for the world to be quarantined. What happens when they get their statement on their pension fund and see how much they have lost because of this position?

The riots that are being reported are accompanied by the view that “this is an old people’s disease”not impacting the youth. The Spring Breakers are not staying home, even in the USA. It is hard to say what impact this has on civil unrest. In Florida, they have closed the beaches as of 12 tonight. Civil unrest is rising because of discontent to start with. There are factions already forming, suggesting they write in Bernie’s name in the November election. They are starting “never Biden” (#NeverBiden) movements. We may see the split in the Democratic Party because of the discontent that began BEFORE the virus scare. The computer forecasts the trend, not the fundamentals.

Even Italy, which has an aging population, has confirmed that 99% of those who have died from the virus had other illnesses. Unbiased medical professionals make it clear that the actual cause of death is not the virus alone – it is complications

Mar 22 2020

Germany Stopping Gold Sales & Cash Dollar Conversions? Beware 23rd?


Armstrong Ecomonics Blog/Germany

Re-Posted Mar 20, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Dear Marty,

just wow! You are the only beacon in a rough sea. Thank you for all you do!

Pro Aurum is the largest dealer of physical gold and silver outside the banking system in Germany. They are closing their online shop for three days from March 23rd to 25th 2020. They stated that they will re-open again after that but with a limited product choice, and who really knows? The reason they are giving is interesting:

„We were told today by our logistician service provider, Prosegur (who delivers our physical metals worth 25.000 Euros or more) that until further notice they will not deliver to private persons and private persons can not pick up their orders.“

One wonders what is going on here?!

Please find Pro Aurum‘s notice here:

Keep up the good work! It is highly appreciated!

Kind regards,

M (Germany)

 

REPLY: This is what is fueling the rumors that Europe will cancel its currency and try to force everything into the banking system. The same is happening to cash dollars

Mar 20 2020

We Apologize For Site Overload – Expanded Servers Are Up


Armstrong Economics Blog/Socrates

Re-Posted Mar 19, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

Some people have asked why don’t we open up Socrates for free in a crisis? The answer is simple. Every time there is a crisis, our web traffic explodes. You must realize we are the largest forecasting firm in the world. We cover more than 1,000 markets ever day. When the surge of millions of people tries to get in at one time, the system is designed to automatically scale up more servers, but the surge today was far beyond anything anyone has ever expected. The system simply could not scale up multiple servers fast enough around the world.

We may have to split the system further as some have suggested that each level becomes its own server group so that when tens of millions trying to get into the basic level, it does not bring down all levels.

We will implement this reversion ASAP and thanks for all the recommendations.

Yes, this may be a good problem too much business as some have suggested. But my goal is to have a system covering every aspect of the world that people can turn to for unbiased analysis by a computer without the conflicts of interest or human prejudices and outright biase

Mar 17 2020

German Comment on Nationalizing Industry due to Coronavirus is Insane!


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany

Re-Posted Mar 16, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong, I have been following you for a few years and what strikes me most is that I read years ago that China would have collapsed in 2020 but that Asia will recover and will be the driving continent from 2036 …

My question is this what do you think of Germany’s decision to print 550 billion euros through the KFW bank in support of businesses and the statements of the German economy minister who says that strategic companies should be nationalized … isn’t that contradicting the so much stressed globalization principle and the “so scandalous” principle of sovereignty?

They claim to use the flexibility that is allowed in the Stability and Growth Pact, but I’m feeling teased while in Italy there is a risk of having to resort to the MES  with a further risk of worsening the economic condition.

Thank you for your attention

L


ANSWER: PeterAltmaier, the Federal Minister of Economic Affairs, was joined by the left-wing Schultz in a joint statement that effectively said that since they cannot bail out companies, perhaps they would just NATIONIZE them. Austerity has been imposed on Europe by Germany and the refusal to consolidate the debts was all because Kohl wanted a single currency to increase German sales throughout Europe, but he did not want to accept a true federalization of debt – having your cake and eat it simultaneously.

This has been the disastrous structural flaw of the Euro. It has not worked and what we see is the Coronavirus is being used to reverse that posture and even justify the entire confiscation of private assets by nationalizing companies. This will be the final nail in the coffin of Europe. Why would any investor be interested in European stocks if the government can act like Iran and just confiscate all private assets?

The economic structure is crumbling. This is why China will rise, not so much that it will be so fantastic, but that the West is gradually committing economic suicide. We have so many people repeating the Coronavirus beating it into such a major scare tactic that people are then willing to surrender all their rights when they are being told it is for their own good. I went behind the Berlin Wall before it fell. They told the people it was not to keep them in but to keep others out because Communism was so fantastic. Obviously, Bernie Sanders believed that one.

 

Mar 17 2020

Justin Trudeau Closes Canadian Border to Most Foreign Travelers….


Posted originally on The Conservative Tree House on March 16, 2020 by 

In 2017 Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau famously mocked the U.S. effort to restrict migration by saying Canada welcomes all refugees. However, apparently in 2020 diversity is a Canadian strength, unless there is a possibility a person might be germy.

CANADA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Monday that Canada will be closing its borders to foreign travellers in an attempt to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus.

Speaking to reporters from Rideau Cottage in Ottawa, Trudeau said Canada is taking “increasingly aggressive steps” and will be closing its borders to people who are not Canadian citizens or permanent residents of Canada.

“I know that these measures are far-reaching,” Trudeau said. “They are exceptional circumstances calling for exceptional measures.”

Trudeau said the restrictions will come into effect Wednesday but that exceptions will be made for air crews, diplomats, immediate family members and U.S. citizens.

Trudeau said that second, air operators will ban anyone who is showing symptoms of the virus from getting on a plane. (read more)

….’unless you are germy’

 

Mar 16 2020

Germany Closing its Borders


Armstrong Economics Blog/Disease

Re-Posted Mar 15, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

GERMANY has just closed its borders within Europe and that includes France. The free movement of goods should remain secured. Commuters can also continue to cross the borders, but they are also trying to stop panic buying which actually is the first step in reigniting inflation.

Mar 14 2020

President Trump Will Lead G7 Virtual Summit on Coronavirus Next Week…


Posted originally on The Conservative Tree House on March 13, 2020 by 

[White House] Today, President Donald J. Trump spoke with President Emmanuel Macron of France. The two leaders discussed how France and the United States are working to combat COVID-19 as well as opportunities to work together to stop the pandemic. President Trump agreed to host a video-conference on the coronavirus with all of the G7 leaders early next week. President Trump and President Macron also discussed issues in the Middle East, including countering the Iranian regime’s dangerous behavior and the situation in northwest Syria. (link)

The G7 Assembly includes: U.S, Japan, Canada, Italy, Germany, U.K. and France; with the EU usually sticking their collective nose into the conversation.

Mar 9 2020

South America – Economically & Politically on Fire


Armstrong Economics Blog/South America

Re-Posted Mar 9, 2020 by Martin Armstrong

South America has been intertwined with socialism and corruption. Political stability and economic recovery for South America have been a wish that has seemed to be always very elusive. But the hopes and dreams have never been fulfilled. In many countries, politicians with sole claim to power are pushing to power, heavily indebted countries are facing bankruptcy, the rich are getting richer, the poor are poorer, demonstrators and police are fighting bloody street battles. An entire continent is in turmoil — South America is on fire! There appears to be a political-economic crisis that is coming to a boil.

Today, South America appears to be unraveling economically and politically. It was only a decade ago when its future seemed bright and all we heard was about investing in emerging markets. Its economy was growing whereas poverty and income inequality were in decline. Yet, the economic boom came on the back of commodities. The abundance brought by high commodity prices even allowed counter-cyclical policies at the time of the US subprime crisis. As always, foolish investors pour in money without regard to historical problems with repaying debt.

As the economies implode and political chaos rises, commodity production will decline over the next two years and this may set things up for the commodity boom into 2024 based on a SHORTAGE OF SUPPLY rather than outright demand.