Tag Archives: Bill Gates

Jan 13 2023

Our Extreme Long-Term Model Forecasting Tools


Armstrong Economics Blog/Training Tools Re-Posted Jan 13, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Your reputation precedes you. They call you the legend because you have been the only analyst who forecasts events years in advance. Throughout the rise and fall the stock market, you called for only 2 year correction from 2000 and 2008 and the market would remain in a bullish trend. I read that Barrows piece on you where it seemed they laughed at your forecast I think in 2010 when you said the market would rally and make new highs. You did the same in 1987. My question is, do you have a particular indicator that allows you to see the long-term like that in the stock market?

PE

ANSWER: This is why I stress that to be a successful trader, you have to conquer your emotions. I was always institutional. Our reports were too expensive for the retail world for they use to go out over telex, which would cost $75 alone per transmission back then. That is why we opened offices around the world to reduce delivery costs. We would send one transmission to that office and they would redistribute it to the clients in that region. We are gathering all our old forecasts that were in storage and will try to assemble them on annual basis for reference.

When FAX became common, we moved to that delivery system and that brought the costs down dramatically. Today, it is email and that is all free. So that is why we became the largest institutional adviser. However, because our clients were institutional, we had to specialize in reliable long-term forecasting. Day traders were not our focus.

We developed our Extreme Long-term trend indicator. This has successfully calculated that these corrections where everyone calls will be the next Depression were only short-term corrections. The calculations are extensive, but this indicator has been used by our Institutional Clients to provide underlying confidence in what is REALLY unfolding in the markets on a broader basis.

These are the charts I was showing at our institutional sessions around the world going into 1985. This indicator was starting to take off on the Quarterly level in 1982. It was fully outright bullish in 1984 on the Yearly Level one year before the ECM turned in 1985. This is why I ended up advising a few of the takeover players back then who they ended up making the movie Wall Street about with Michael Douglas and his famous speech on greed.  What the movie did not explain was that the book value declined so much that we could buy companies, sell their assets, and double or even triple our money. I was warned that we were entering a takeover boom.

We took out the back cover of the Economist in July 1985 to forecast that the deflation was ending and a new Private Wave was beginning that would eventually peak in 2032.

The ECM even picked the high in the interest rates at the Fed. Our long-term forecasts have been amazing. They even impressed me. As I said at the last WEC, nobody has tried to defeat these models more than me. True, I do not like their project into 2032. But that is my personal opinion which is not something clients rely on. We all know that the forecasts can only come from Socrates. These indicators have been reliable and you cannot forecast the future from a personal gut feeling.

Jan 13 2023

Tucker Carlson Asks Why are Biden People Telling the DOJ About Biden Classified Documents?


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 13, 2023 | sundance 

Fox News host Tucker Carlson asks the obvious question, why are Joe Biden people telling the DOJ about Biden having classified documents?  Under normal corrupt and easy to handle circumstances the documents would be destroyed, hidden and never revealed; yet here they are being exposed by people in the Biden orbit.

In corrupt DC circles, the Biden revelations show there is some entity and motive behind the discoveries.  Tucker Carlson ponders what that agenda is all about. WATCH:

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Jan 13 2023

DOJ Releases 2-Page Appointment Order Detailing Initial Scope of Robert Hur Special Counsel Authority


Posted originally on the CTH on January 12, 2023 | sundance

Unlike the appointment of special counsel Jack Smith, the appointment order for special counsel Robert Hur was not available at the time the press release of the special counsel appointment was made.   The appointment order was released tonight, a two-page pdf, which is essentially the initiating scope of authorization for the special counsel to follow. [Link to pdf]

The Robert Hur appointment order is interestingly worded to encompass the origination of the John Lausch “initial investigation”, we have not seen any documents associated with that initial appointment on November 14, 2022.

Additionally, the appointment order seems to limit the investigation to only records discovered in two locations, “the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement and the Wilmington, Delaware, private residence of President Joseph R Biden, Jr.”   The next part “any matters that arose from the initial investigation,” again puts the emphasis on the John Laush original investigative authority as given by AG Merrick Garland.

(Source Link)

Jan 13 2023

RIP Lisa Marie Presley, 1968 – 2023


Posted originally on the Conservative Tree House January 12, 2023 | sundance

According to a Facebook announcement by her mother earlier today, Lisa Marie Presley (54), the only child of Elvis Presley, suffered a cardiac arrest and was rushed to the hospital.  It is now being confirmed that she died.

Was this another death from “Unknown” causes AKA the Jab?

[Hollywood] – Lisa Marie Presley, the only daughter of Elvis and Priscilla Presley, has died. She was 54.

“It is with a heavy heart that I must share the devastating news that my beautiful daughter Lisa Marie has left us,” her mother Priscilla Presley confirmed.

“She was the most passionate strong and loving woman I have ever known,” she said in a statement to TMZ. “We ask for privacy as we try to deal with this profound loss. Thank you for the love and prayers. At this time there will be no further comment.” (more)

Heavenly Father, please provide comfort to the family of Lisa Marie Presley as they struggle with the pain of loss and grief. You are the decisionmaker in our lives and we seek Your grace and mercy for those left behind.  We humbly ask that You provide everyone Your peace and love in tangible ways as they travel through the journey of grief. Help the family and friends of Lisa Marie Presley adjust to life without her presence and draw them closer to You.  We ask Your grace to stabilize those who are suffering through the shock of this sudden passing, and through our belief in Your eternal promise we beg comfort for those who remain. In Jesus’ powerful name, I believe and pray. ~ Amen

Jan 13 2023

Twitter File #14 Release – DC Politicians Pushing Twitter to Remove Content That Exposed Fraud Behind Trump-Russia Claims


Posted originally on the CTH on January 12, 2023 | sundance

Just a quick post to draw attention to the latest Twitter File #14 drop by Matt Taibbi [REVIEW HERE].  Thankfully, Taibbi is using the Twitter files to provide historical context against events that were happening at the time the documents are now revealing in hindsight.  Cheers to Taibbi.

[Twitter File #14 HERE]

Essentially, as Taibbi is pointing out, various DC politicians were working feverishly in early 2018 to maintain the fraudulent narrative around the Trump-Russia investigation.

Why is this timeline important, because retention of the fraudulent Trump-Russia narrative was critical to support the predicate of the Robert Mueller (Andrew Weissmann) Special Counsel.  As Taibbi notes, “On January 18th, 2018, Republican Devin Nunes submitted a classified memo to the House Intel Committee detailing abuses by the FBI in obtaining FISA surveillance authority against Trump-connected figures, including the crucial role played by the infamous “Steele Dossier.”  The entire DC apparatus was going bananas about the Nunes memo because it undermined the predicate assumptions of the Trump-Russia probe.

The Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) was the specific stakeholder institution intent on retaining the Trump-Russia fraud, because the SSCI was one of the institutions who helped construct it.  Again Taibbi, “On January 23rd, 2018, Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and congressman Adam Schiff (D-CA) published an open letter saying the hashtag [#ReleaseTheMemo] “gained the immediate attention and assistance of social media accounts linked to Russian influence operations.” The intelligence community politicians were furious that various Twitter accounts were tearing apart their precious, and false, story.

Into this mix comes the work of former Dianne Feinstein staffer Dan Jones who was funding various entities like “Hamilton 68” to push propaganda.  “Feinstein, Schiff, Blumenthal, and media members all pointed to the same source: the Hamilton 68 dashboard created by former FBI counterintelligence official Clint Watts, under the auspices of the Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD)”.  The goal was to pressure Twitter to remove content that could eventually take apart the Trump-Russia narrative. Teh justification they were using was that Russian groups were behind the Twitter pushback.

SIDEBAR from CTH ARCHIVES – A fantastic catch by Twitter user “15poundstogo” previously highlighted a key phrase within the Senate Select Intelligence Committee (SSCI) Russia Report Volume-5, showing how the SSCI allowed those who created the Trump-Russia narrative to avoid questioning:

[SSCI Volume-5 Link, Page 23]

This is a very important detail to underpin previous reporting we shared about former Dianne Feinstein top staffer Dan Jones attempting to avoid a subpoena from U.S. Attorney John Durham.  [SEE BACKGROUND HERE]  This key highlight from the SSCI is evidence of how the attempted coup against President Trump was coordinated by people outside government and inside government.

Dan Jones left the SSCI prior to the 2016 election and went to work pushing the Trump-Russia narrative through his media contacts.  Jones took over funding Fusion-GPS and Chris Steele in 2017 at the same time Senator Mark Warner took over as SSCI vice-chairman. Dan Jones and Mark Warner coordinated the efforts outside and inside government on the same objective.  The Senate Intel Committee was part of the effort.

As a result of their alignment and common purpose the SSCI didn’t investigate the origin of the Trump-Russia narrative; and instead positioned themselves as a shield to block any investigative inquiry into what took place.

The attempt to remove President Trump from office encompassed all three branches of the U.S. government.

  • Executive Branch – FBI, DOJ-NSD, CIA, State Dept., and eventually the Special Counsel Office.
  • Legislative Branch – SSCI in 2017 and 2018 with an assist from House Intelligence Committee and House Judiciary in 2019 and 2020.
  • Judicial Branch – FISA Court 2015, 2016, 2017; Federal Judges (Sullivan, Walton, Howell, Berman-Jackson) in alignment with DC intents in 2018, 2019 and 2020.

How does the office of the United States president; and more importantly a constitutional republic itself; survive a coordinated coup effort that involves all three branches of government; while simultaneously those in charge of exposing the corruption fear the scale of the effort is too damaging for the U.S. government to reveal?

[EARLIER REPORT] – […] When President Trump won the November 2016 election all of those participants involved in the use of government offices and agencies for corrupt political intent had a real problem.  Immediately, a lot of strategic planning took place by a lot of desperate people.

One of the key needs of the corrupt intelligence apparatus was to find a way to stop the incoming administration from exposing their effort; that’s where the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI) comes in.

Senator Dianne Feinstein was vice-chair of the SSCI in 2016.  Feinstein’s former chief of staff was Dan Jones.

The post-election plan to protect the intel community would involve using the SSCI institution to cover for prior Obama-era operations. Senator Feinstein was not a good fit for that role, so Feinstein abdicated her position in advance of the next congress in 2017.

In January 2017 Senator Mark Warner took over as SSCI vice-chair after Dan Jones left the SSCI to continue efforts as a freelance operative.   Warner was put into place to carry out the strategic objectives needed to protect the DOJ, NSD, CIA, FBI and ODNI operations against Donald Trump who was now the incoming president-elect.

Keep in mind with control of the SSCI the group inside the legislative branch could control who ran what intelligence agency because they held the power of confirmation; and they could control who would rise to be inspector general within the intelligence community, a position needed if a whistle-blower was to surface.  The SSCI would only allow Michael Atkinson to act as ICIG – That’s because Atkinson was part of the 2015/2016 crew.

Additionally, the SSCI would control intelligence information and assist the Weissmann/Mueller special counsel after appointment.   The SSCI could work as a sword and a shield as needed.  Which is exactly what happened.  That background, the motive of the SSCI, explains every point of conflict and corruption we have seen from the SSCI.

Meanwhile Dan Jones went freelance and in 2017 was given $50 million to fund an investigative outfit called the “Penn Quarter Group” and create a new organization called the Democracy Integrity Project.

“Jones told federal investigators that he had raised $50 million from “7 to 10 wealthy donors located primarily in New York and California.” (link)

Jones used both groups to continue selling and pushing the Trump-Russia narrative. Also, it was important for those at risk to find an alternate route to keep financing their defense without using Clinton’s legal team within Perkins Coie.

Essentially, in 2017 Dan Jones, through his Penn Quarter Group, took over funding for Fusion-GPS and Glenn Simpson and kept paying Christopher Steele.  The payments to these entities and Steele always looked more like a pay-off to keep their mouths shut. Jones was essentially the bagman for continued Trump-Russia operations outside government.  Jones’s second job was to keep pushing the Trump-Russia narrative in the media (read more).

Back to Taibbi today:

“NBC, Politico, AP, Times, Business Insider, and other media outlets who played up the “Russian bots” story – even Rolling Stone – all declined to comment for this story. The staffs of Feinstein, Schiff, and Blumenthal also declined comment.

Who did comment? Devin Nunes. “Schiff and the Democrats falsely claimed Russians were behind the Release the Memo hashtag, all my investigative work… By spreading the Russia collusion hoax, they instigated one of the greatest outbreaks of mass delusion in U.S. history.”

This #ReleaseTheMemo episode is just one of many in the #TwitterFiles. The Russiagate scandal was built on the craven dishonesty of politicians and reporters, who for years ignored the absence of data to fictional scare headlines.” (more)

Jan 13 2023

AG Merrick Garland Timeline Does Not Align with DOJ Claims and Joe Biden Lawyers


Posted originally on the CTH on January 12, 2023 | sundance

During a press conference today, Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Robert K Hur as Special Counsel to investigate the Joe Biden classified documents that were removed from the White House during President Obama’s term in office (2009 through January 2017). The timeline given by AG Garland does not match up with prior DOJ statements and lawyers representing Joe Biden.

[SOURCES: DOJ Video Here – AG Garland Transcript Here – AG Press Release Here]

The timeline as described by AG Merrick Garland:

♦ Nov 4, 2022 – National Archives notifies DOJ of classified documents located at Penn-Biden Center
♦ Nov 9, 2022 – Garland instructs FBI to conduct assessment of classified documents and investigate
♦ Nov 14, 2022 – Garland instructs USAO Laush to conduct investigation of events and documents
♦ Dec 20, 2022 – Biden Lawyers tell USAO Laush of additional classified documents in Delaware
♦ Jan 5, 2023 – USAO Lausch briefs AG Garland and recommends a special counsel be appointed
♦ Jan 12, 2023 – Biden Lawyers inform Lausch/Garland additional documents found in Delaware
♦ Jan 12, 2023 – Garland appoints Special Counsel Robert Hur

If the FBI began investigating on November 9th, and USAO Lausch began investigating on November 14th, then why was it Joe Biden lawyers informing Laush of additional classified documents found in Delaware on December 20th?   Why did the FBI and Lausch not find them?

Why was it Joe Biden Lawyers informing USAO Lausch on January 12th about the third batch of classified documents?   Again, where was the FBI and John Lausch?

Nothing about this timeline as described by AG Garland makes sense when contrast with the lawyers from Joe Biden saying earlier today, the Biden team was still doing a classified document search through “last night.”

(Source)

From AG Merrick Garland remarks (emphasis mine):

[Transcript] […] “On the evening of November 4, 2022, the National Archives Office of Inspector General contacted a prosecutor at the Department of Justice. It informed him that the White House [Counsel] had notified the Archives that documents bearing classification markings were identified at the office of the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement, located in Washington, D.C. That office was not authorized for storage of classified documents. The prosecutor was also advised that those documents had been secured in an Archives facility.

On November 9, the FBI commenced an assessment, consistent with standard protocols, to understand whether classified information had been mishandled in violation of federal law.

On November 14, pursuant to Section 600.2(b) of the Special Counsel regulations, I assigned U.S. Attorney Lausch to conduct an initial investigation to inform my decision whether to appoint a Special Counsel.

Mr. Lausch has served as the U.S. Attorney in Chicago since 2017. Before that, he spent more than a decade as an Assistant U.S. Attorney in that same office. I selected him to conduct the initial investigation because I was confident his experience would ensure that it would be done professionally and expeditiously.

On December 20, President Biden’s personal counsel informed Mr. Lausch that additional documents bearing classification markings were identified in the garage of the President’s private residence in Wilmington, Delaware. President Biden’s counsel informed Mr. Lausch that those documents were among other records from the period of the President’s service as Vice President. The FBI went to the location and secured those documents.

On January 5, 2023, Mr. Lausch briefed me on the results of his initial investigation and advised me that further investigation by a Special Counsel was warranted. Based on Mr. Lausch’s initial investigation, I concluded that, under the Special Counsel regulations, it was in the public interest to appoint a Special Counsel.  In the days since, while Mr. Lausch continued the investigation, the Department identified Mr. Hur for appointment as Special Counsel.

This morning [January 12, 2023], President Biden’s personal counsel called Mr. Lausch and stated that an additional document bearing classification markings was identified at the President’s personal residence in Wilmington, Delaware. [More]

The timeline doesn’t make sense.  What was the FBI and John Lausch doing for two months?   Something is not adding up.

Also, you don’t appoint a Special Counsel on the day it is announced.  There had to be some discussion with Robert Hur in the lead up to the announcement today.

We still don’t know what the classified documents were about, how old they are, or how many of them exist.  The only thing confirmed is the documents pertain to the timeline of the Obama-Biden administration which was January 2009 through January 2017.

The Penn-Biden Center didn’t exist until 2018, so where were the classified documents between the time they were taken and the time they were discovered in the office.

As Vice President Joe Biden had no authority to declassify government documents and could not possess classified documents.

So many questions….  Former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe gives a good summary of some main issues.

Posted in Big Government, Big Stupid Government, Deep State, Dem Hypocrisy, Dept Of Justice, FBI, Joe Biden, media 

Jan 13 2023

Flashback: Reminder of Joe Biden Statements on Classified Documents and President Trump


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on January 12, 2023 | sundance | 14 Comments

Just a reminder:

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Jan 13 2023

AG Merrick Garland Appoints Special Counsel to Review Joe Biden Classified Documents


January 12, 2023 | sundance | 332 Comments

After lawyers representing Joe Biden released information saying additional classified documents were discovered at multiple locations associated with Joe Biden, the investigation that was being handled by USAO John Lausch has been turned over to a new special counsel, Robert K Hur.

Attorney General Merrick Garland made the announcement earlier today [DOJ Press Release Here]:

(DOJ Press Release) – Attorney General Merrick B. Garland announced today the appointment of a former career Justice Department prosecutor and former U.S. Attorney for the District of Maryland Robert K. Hur to serve as special counsel to conduct the investigation of matters that were the subject of the initial investigation by U.S. Attorney John R. Lausch Jr. related to the possible unauthorized removal and retention of classified documents or other records discovered at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement and the Wilmington, Delaware, private residence of President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

“Based on Mr. Lausch’s initial investigation, I concluded that, under the Special Counsel regulations, it was in the public interest to appoint a Special Counsel. In the days since, while Mr. Lausch continued the investigation, the Department identified Mr. Hur for appointment as Special Counsel.

“This appointment underscores for the public the Department’s commitment to both independence and accountability in particularly sensitive matters, and to making decisions indisputably guided only by the facts and the law. 

I am confident that Mr. Hur will carry out his responsibility in an even-handed and urgent manner, and in accordance with the highest traditions of this Department.” (Source Link)

Robert K Hur was in private practice with the Gibson Dunn law firm.  Prior to private practice, Mr. Hur served as the 48th U.S. Attorney for the District of Maryland.

Presidentially appointed by Donald Trump and unanimously confirmed by the U.S. Senate, Mr Hur served as U.S. Attorney from 2018 to 2021 as the chief federal law enforcement officer in Maryland.  Before serving as U.S. Attorney, Mr. Hur served as the Principal Associate Deputy Attorney General with the U.S. Department of Justice in Washington, D.C. from 2017 to 2018.

Essentially it looks like AG Merrick Garland is appointing a special counsel, because (a) he has to deflect political criticism given the issues and the growing scale; and (b) because a special counsel appointment will now throw the bag of “a current investigation” over any efforts from the Republican House of Representatives to investigate the office of the presidency.

Jan 12 2023

Nunes: Where else did Biden hide classified documents?


Truth Social CEO Devin Nunes discusses Joe Biden’s classified documents scandal and more on ‘Just the News, No Noise,’ January 11, 2023.

Jan 12 2023

Russian Black Fleet Heads to Sea


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Jan 12, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Russian Navy ships and submarines have suddenly left their base at Novorossiysk, in the Black Sea, en-masse. This is highly unusual and many fear that this is a change in tactics. The Western Press keeps trying to paint Russia as losing the war so, quite frankly, they can get more people to volunteer to join the military if they think they are on the winning side.  There is no question that the US and Russia are waging the most intense confrontation since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Our model on that confrontation aligned with our major war model showing that 2014 was the end of that period and the beginning of this new period as we head into World War III.

The hardliners are not happy in Russia and President Vladimir Putin is being pushed into a corner. Either he gets more aggressive, or they could be a coup. The hardliners are using nuclear threats and other escalations in what they know is now really a proxy war of the USA and NATO against Russia using Ukraine as the pawn they are willing to sacrifice.

Washington is wielding its own array of pressures to paint Putin as a loser. The good news is that, so far, both strategies have been fairly carefully calibrated. The bad news is that America and Russia are still on a collision course because the end goal is actually to conquer Russia.

Sweden has now instituted a draft. Poland is building its army of up to 250,000 men. All of this is based on the expectation that Ukraine can reduce the Russian army and that will make it a cakewalk to invade and drive tanks from Poland right into Moscow.

Sweden will boost military spending by around 40% over the next five years from 2016 and double the numbers conscripted into the armed forces as it looks to beef up its defence amid growing tensions with Russia post-2014. Meanwhile, France, Italy, Latvia and Lithuania scrapped conscription as they concluded that large-scale defence was no longer necessary before 2014, but now they have all reversed policies.

The Joe Biden administration pledged to defend “every inch” of Nato territory. That has complicated matters for Putin to interfere with Ukraine’s supply lines through Romania and Poland. The Western Press keeps pitching the same propaganda that Putin is spiralling toward defeat in Ukraine and may not survive that outcome politically. Yet I know that the hardliners are there and if Putin does not become more aggressive, they may indeed replace him by May and then holy hell will break loose.

Putin is warning Washington as well as Kyiv that attacks on those territories are tantamount to attacks on Russia itself. The Biden administration has opted not to listen to anything from Putin and only seeks war instructing Zelensky to sacrifice his own people and to reject any peace talks whatsoever. If the US hands Zelensky long-range missiles, he will use them to attack mainland Russia and that will begin World War III.

EVERY President throughout my entire life has always sought peace. The Biden Administration and NATO only talk about pushing war. NEVER have I ever witnessed such irresponsible leadership for this is really about Climate Change.