Posted originally on Jun 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari has advised against anticipating near-term rate cuts. While speaking to the Financial Times, the Fed president stated that people would simply prefer a recession to continued inflation.
“I have learned that the American people—and maybe people in Europe equally—really hate high inflation. I mean, really viscerally hate high inflation,” he told the Financial Times’ The Economics Show podcast. Kashkari is speaking as if we are not already in a recession. It is not difficult to understand the “visceral” hatred people around the world feel toward rising prices. The effects of inflation are felt with every purchase, causing the average person to adjust their entire lifestyle.
Vague issues such as rising unemployment or declining wages do not impact everyone. “I lose my job, I lean on my sister or my parents or my friends, and they help me through it. But high inflation affects everybody. There’s no one I can lean on for help because everyone in my network is experiencing the same thing I’m experiencing,” Kashkari explained. Mass layoffs, for example, would only impact a fragment of the overall population, and people would feel lucky simply to keep their jobs.
“In the US, GDP has been remarkably strong, very strong,” he noted. “The labor market has been resilient. Wage growth has been mostly resilient. And we’re seeing even the housing market has shown signs of resilience. So if I look at this resilience and economic activity, that does not look like an economy that is under pressure of very high, very tight monetary policy.” Yet, inflation is outpacing wage increases and people are watching their savings dwindle while spending less. The average person cares not of the health of the overall economy as they simply want to be able to continue maintaining or improving their standard of living. Most Americans, for example, do not invest and live paycheck to paycheck.
Real prices have far surpassed anything they calculate in CPI. Everyone understands that prices have risen far more than the arbitrary number the Fed provides us. Taxes are continually increasing for everyone in every tax bracket. The government not only adds to inflationary issues with their spending but then expects their citizens to foot a portion of the bill with taxes, which will simply never be enough.
Then we have Washington telling the masses to blame corporations for price gouging while raising their taxes and making it increasingly difficult to conduct business and maintain a large workforce. It is not that the people would prefer to be in a recession, the real issue is that countless people are entering survival mode. People everywhere want to hold onto whatever they may have out of fear for the future, but they are unable even to hoard as real prices now demand they hand over whatever they have to maintain their lives.
Posted originally on Jun 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
As the world watches the “land of the free” attempt to imprison a former president, they are also waking up to realization that the pandemic was planned and fabricated. The House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic has been attempting to get answers on why the world was shut down for a virus from Dr. Anthony Fauci who is slowly admitting the truth – he “made up” COVID mandates and protocols.
Remember how they told us we must stay precisely six feet away from one another? They had the distancing marked on floors across the world. Humans were not to interact with other humans, all because “the science” said so. ‘You know, I don’t recall. It sort of just appeared,’ the former National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) leader said in regards to this asinine rule as indicated in committee transcripts.
Fauci said he was unaware of ANY study that indicated social distancing could prevent the disease from spreading. COVID was a lie.
Businesses and schools shuttered because “the science” told us we could not interact. Studies did, however, find that social distancing led to “depression, generalized anxiety, acute stress, and intrusive thoughts.” The NIH even found that children’s literacy, socialization, and overall well-being was impacted in a “very negative” fashion due to school closures and utter fear propaganda pushed out by the 24/7 news cycle.
Was there any evidence for school closures or masking children? Fauci said he does not recall any specific studies saying that masking children would be effective. The World Health Organization suggested that children should oftentimes wear masks in their own homes.
Should my child wear a mask at home?
Your child’s health is a priority, and there may be times when wearing a mask at home is the safest thing to do.
If you have visitors, outdoor gatherings are safer than indoor gatherings. If visitors come into your home, it may be best for everyone to wear a mask if ventilation is poor or if physical distancing of at least 1 metre cannot be maintained.
Children who have symptoms of COVID-19 should wear a medical mask at home when they are in shared spaces, as long as they can tolerate it. Family members/caregivers who come within 1 metre of the sick child at home should also wear a medical mask.
One could only imagine the hysteria of the pandemic from a child’s eyes. There was never any evidence for closing schools. Countless studies have shown that school closures led to countless mental health and educational issues for an entire generation.
All the small businesses that were permanently shuttered during COVID were done so by the mandates required by “the science.” No one needed to socially distance from one another. It was a virus no different from the common flu. Thousands of people lost their livelihoods because we trusted the government and health organizations to protect us from an imaginary threat.
Lockdowns, in general, were a lie. The world was placed on house arrest at the whim of “the science” and suffered greatly. Our society has changed entirely due to the pandemic. The world economy has changed due to the pandemic. We can never go back or regain that time. We must look at what occurred to prevent it from happening again. The masses are waking up and realizing that COVID was a carefully orchestrated event. Trust in one’s government has evaporated – they took our health and years of our lives from us without just cause. They demonized anyone who spoke out against the agenda, often going as far as imprisonment and debanking. People have revolted throughout history for far lesser injustices.
The light is beginning to illuminate on the truth. It is all coming to a surface from election frauds to calculated wars. The computer is showing a great rise in civil unrest, and there will be a major turning point in September 2024 as indicated by our computer.
Posted originally on the CTH on June 3, 2024 | Sundance
Given the specific and manipulative nature of Mrs. Sheila Jackson-Lee in the stories of Trayvon Martin, Michael Brown, Freddie Grey, Philando Castile, Walter Scott and eventually George Floyd, it is difficult to find resilient grace and appropriate words for prayer.
Factually Ms. Sheila Jackson-Lee was/is one of the most divisive players of the racially toxic anger games in the past dozen years. Her commentary was consistently vitriolic, delivered from serpent tongue and devoid of honest review. That said, as the dark shadows move into receptive position, I am hopeful Ms Jackson-Lee will repent and provide her family peace during her transition.
Dear Lord, we come to you seeking strength and grace. While we ask You to protect us from those who give no thought to the harmful consequences of their irresponsible actions, we also beg for grace within our prayers for those who blindly trespass. Shield us from the injurious situations they cause, let their malicious intents be hindered and target our prayers when comeuppance is served.
As we earnestly try to live in peace with everyone, keep us away from contentious people who might incite us to react without pause or grace. Provide us with gracious, strong yet gentle words for healing that may help pacify the troubled hearts of the malicious. We make effort to glorify You and give testimony of our faith at every opportunity. In Your name of mercy, we pray.
That voice you heard throughout your "adult life," did not emanate from God, it was the opposite voice – the dark and enticing whisper of pride, ego and hate.
That said, perhaps repent for all prior outcomes, and accept the earnestly attempted grace. https://t.co/rDHL3OiZNE
Posted originally on May 30, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The earth’s climate is anything but regular, with every year a repeat of the last. The White Earth Effect is the realization of what would happen if the earth was entirely covered in snow and ice. The bottom line is that the Earth would then reflect the sunlight rather than absorb it, and hence, the planet would never again move back to a warm climate – global freezing. The critical understanding of the cyclical nature of our environment has been hampered by people trying to further personal agendas distorting real trends in our climate. The nonsense about global warming has done far more damage than most people realize to our understanding cycle for it is the same crisis we have with Marxist-Keynesianism – the assumption that man can control his surroundings and society.
Global Warming has propagated false ideas about the world we live in. It has claimed that man is even capable of altering the climate, covering up the fact that it is a dynamic cyclical system that we are not bothering to understand. This is as bad as assuming the Earth is flat, for back then, the disbelievers argued that it would be absurd, for nobody could stand on a ball upside down.
It would be nice just for once if people stopped grabbing bits of information and attributing that as proof of what is really a political movement for a hidden agenda. The Earth is no more in a Global Warming trend caused by man than Elvis is still alive and on stage in Vegas.
The White Earth Effect describes a theory that for millions of years the Earth was almost entirely smothered in ice, stretching from the poles to the tropics. This freezing happened over 650 million years ago in the pre-Cambrian period, though it’s now thought that there may have been more than one of these global glaciations. They varied in duration and extent, but during a full-on snowball event covering the entire planet, life could only cling on in ice-free refuges or where sunlight managed to penetrate through the ice to allow photosynthesis. As long as there were some spots that could absorb sunlight, then the cycle would be capable of a reversal back to a warming climate.
The climate has always been a dynamic system that oscillates between extreme cold and extreme heat. Perhaps you recall the term Ice Age? Even the Sun is a thermodynamic system that oscillates in a cycle of about 300 years between maximum and minimum energy output with a fluctuation range of about 15%. Climatologists have universally agreed that the long-term behavior of our planet’s oceans and atmosphere could at any point in time shift without reason (beyond a chaotic shift) from one that is very inhabitable to an icy tomb of doom from which there is no return.
The Father of Chaos Theory is Edward Norton Lorenz (1917–2008), an American mathematician and meteorologist. Lorenz was certainly THE pioneer in Chaos Theory. A professor at MIT, Lorenz was the first to recognize what is now called chaotic behavior in the mathematical modeling of weather systems.
During the 1950s, Lorenz observed that there was a cyclical, non-linear nature to weather, yet the field relied upon linear statistical models in meteorology to do weather forecasting. It was like trying to measure the circumference of a circle with a straight-edge ruler. His work on the topic culminated in the publication of his 1963 paper Deterministic Non-periodic Flow in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences and with it, the foundation of chaos theory. During the early 1960s, Lorenz had access to early computers. He was running what he thought would be random numbers and began to observe there was a duality of a hidden repetitive nature. He graphed the numbers that were derived from his study of convection rolls in the atmosphere. What emerged has been perhaps one of the most important discoveries in modern time.
This illustration of the Lorenz Strange Attractor is incredibly important and was first reported in 1963. Lorenz’s discovery of a strange attractor was made during an effort to create a model of weather patterns. The actual experiment was an attempt to model the atmospheric dynamics of the planet. It involved a truncated model of the Navier-Stokes equations. It is a visual example of a non-linear dynamic system corresponding to the long-term behavior in a cyclical manner, revealing a hidden order we cannot otherwise observe.
Lorenz also discovered in 1969 that very minor differences in a dynamic nonlinear system could trigger vast and often unsuspected drastic results. These observations ultimately led him to formulate what became known as the term Butterfly Effectin 1969 regarding this fascinating discovery. Very tiny changes in what might appear to be minor data at the outset had a ripple effect throughout the entire system, creating substantially different outcomes. This term grew out of an academic paper he presented in 1972 entitled: “Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set off a Tornado in Texas?”
From a dynamic system perspective, such a possibility that the earth could go to one extreme, such as the White Earth Effect, and fail to recover is not really just a matter of chance that could emerge out of nowhere. It was Lorenz who stated that it would take some “huge kick” of energy to upset the balance of our climate to such a degree. Lorenz called this system “almost-intransitivity.”
The White Earth Effect is what would happen if the climate moved cyclically to the extreme on the cold side. The Earth has, for millions of years, almost been entirely covered in ice, stretching from the poles to the tropics. The failure to cover every spot was our saving grace. If there was no such ice-free zone, the cycle would stop as the ice would reflect the sunlight, the planet would stay cold, and life would be extinguished – the White Earth Effect.
Posted originally on May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
All those investigating cycles within the economy made a simple mistake. Kondratieff followed agriculture/commodity prices when agriculture accounted for 70% of the GDP pre-19th century. That only began to decline from 1850 forward, dropping to 40% by 1900 as the Industrial Revolution emerged with the invention of the steam engine. Moreover, aside from climate impacting the food supply, there were also wars. So the Kondratieff Wave failed to take into account all of the external forces.
If we extend the K-Wave 54 years from the commodity high in 1919, that brings us to 1973, which was close to the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 and the OPEC Oil crisis. Another 54 years from there will bring us to 2027. Therefore, this may be based entirely on commodities, but they were impacted by weather and war. Note that 2027 is the ideal target on our model for war derived from entirely different sources.
There is a cycle of industrialization as well. Rome began as an agrarian society and moved toward trade, which brought them into conflict with Carthage. Rome itself became more like New York and grain was imported from Egypt. As agriculture became more of an import, Rome blossomed like New York into the arts and culture. The shift toward industrialization also resulted in a decline in birth rates for children. Large families were needed in an agrarian society but not so much in a developed society – hence the family laws of Augustus.
The first known Clean Air Act occurred in 535 AD by Emperor Justinian in Constantinople. He proclaimed the importance of clean air as a birthright. “By the law of nature these things are common to mankind—the air, running water, the sea.” Even Cicero wrote about pollution in the ancient city of Rome. This went hand and hand with developed societies and urbanization.
Consequently, when looking at long-term cycles, a few hundred years is not enough data. If Kondratieff were alive today and based his study on the current system, he would focus on services rather than commodity-based economies. Agriculture has fallen to just 1.2% of the civil workforce, so we cannot follow K-Waves as the innovator intended.
Posted originally on May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
All commodities, including gold, trade substantially differently than stocks or real estate. Pictured here is wheat back to 1200. Note that you see what appears to be a brain wave. Commodities trade differently because they are subject to nature. Manufactured items can be produced on a more regular basis. However, commodities are subject to weather, and even mining is subject to discovering supply.
Look at energy. The US was dependent on imports and was virtually self-sufficient from foreign production until Biden was appointed.
Here is wheat impacted during the Black Death. Two trends were clashing. There was a 50% drop in population, so demand dropped, but also there was a collapse in labor, so production declined. Prices rose because there was still a shortage of supply because land went vacant and that forced landlords to begin paying wages. There are always far more complicated trends involved in commodities.
War has also impacted commodities. But when gold was MONEY, it declined in purchasing power WITH inflation. When gold is a free market as present, it moves opposite to inflation because, yes, it too is then a commodity. Making gold money will NEVER prevent the cycles as illustrated above and it will decline in purchasing power with inflation that is in part driven by nature.
Consequently, even gold makes runs to the upside (bursts) that are largely catch-ups. It does not remain constant even against silver. Gold is the worst investment from an inflationary standpoint if you expect it to track inflation, for it does not and will not. Right now, we are in a cycle where CONFIDENCE has waned, and we will see gold rise with the stock market, but it trades far differently from stocks.
Cyclical analysis is all about defining WHEN such events will take place. Price is entirely a different aspect. The burst is just that – a rally that appears to come from nowhere playing catch-up because EVERYTHING has an international value.
Posted originally on May 29, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
The old idea that inflation is created by an increase in money supply has distorted the minds of many people. Inflation is caused by numerous factors for it is not a one-dimensional aspect. For example, say a bird flu has rendered half of the egg production to be worthless, which would send egg prices soaring. This would have nothing to do with the quantity of money. So, obviously, a decline in the supply of some service or commodity can also lead to rising prices. Supply and demand.
Then there can be cost-push inflation as we saw during the 1970s due to OPEC. The first OPEC price shock was October 1973 from where we should see the next low in 2016 (43 years later). The sudden rise in oil sent a shockwave through the economy, driving up prices because the entire economy had to readjust to higher energy. This was not the result of an increase in demand nor an increase in the money supply.
When gold was used for money during the 19th century, it fell sharply in value with each new discovery from California, Australia, and Alaska. Inflation rose because of a dramatic increase in the money supply, which is exactly what took place in Europe when Spain brought back ship after ship of gold from the New World. The sudden dramatic rise in the supply of money unleashed inflation, and during both periods, money (gold) failed to provide a store of value.
Steady, slow growth in the supply of money does not lead to inflationary waves. We find that major waves of inflation are often tied to waves of speculation, which differ with each wave moving from real estate, commodities, stocks, or bonds, constantly rotating over decades within a domestic economy and then this movement of capital takes place internationally.
Inflation is not a single one-dimensional aspect. It moves up and down between the rise and fall in the demand for private assets vs. hoarding and uncertainty.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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