Largest New Discovery of Oil in USA Puts USA in Top Ten


Oil Platform

Another major discovery of oil has been made in Alaska of 1.2 billion barrels. It is the largest find of conventional oil for 30 years on US territory. The discovery was made by the Spanish oil company Repsol on Thursday with its US partner Armstrong Energy. According to a report from the company, the production potential is up to 120,000 barrels of oil per day, and production is scheduled to start in four years. This will probably increase the US standing to overtake Nigeria entering the list of top ten.

Rank Country Barrels (bbl)
1 Venezuela 298,400,000,000
2 Saudi Arabia 268,300,000,000
3 Canada 171,000,000,000
4 Iran 157,800,000,000
5 Iraq 144,200,000,000
6 Kuwait 104,000,000,000
7 Russia 103,200,000,000
8 United Arab Emirates 97,800,000,000
9 Libya 48,360,000,000
10 Nigeria 37,070,000,000
11 United States 36,520,000,000
12 Kazakhstan 30,000,000,000
13 Qatar 25,240,000,000
14 China 24,650,000,000
15 Brazil 15,310,000,000
16 Algeria 12,200,000,000
17 Mexico 9,812,000,000
18 Angola 9,011,000,000
19 Ecuador 8,832,000,000
20 Azerbaijan 7,000,000,000

The Fed Raises Interest Rates & Markets Rally!


CNBUSA-M 3-15-2017

The stock market, gold, silver, and oil all rallied when the Federal Reserve delivered the widely expected increase in its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, the Ides of March. It said that the domestic economy remained on a path of slow and steady growth. In a statement the Fed said that the United States economy continued to move along expanding at a “moderate pace.” The consumers were spending with businesses and employers were still hiring.

The Fed also noted a recent increase in inflation after a long period of sideways movement. Prices are now rising at roughly the 2% on an annual pace that the Fed regards as optimal, however, picking up the rug reveals that healthcare costs are acting more like oil did during the 1970s. This raises concern that we may be entering really stagflation and not true inflation driven by expanding demand. The Fed now said its focus would be stabilizing inflation. They really need to look closely at the driving forces. As more and more states move into crisis like California, we will see rising taxation to cover the crisis in pensions. This will feed stagflation – and prevent rising inflation from demand.

The Fed’s forecasts have moved in the direction of tightening, and despite what they say publicly, the most serious stimulus is rising stock prices. There was one vote against the rate hike, Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, who said that the Fed’s statement did not provide a reason for Mr. Kashkari’s vote. However, this is because the real reason behind the rate hike has been the rise in the stock market.

CBDFOR-Y

The computer forecast back in 2011 showed that the trend would change in 2015. Indeed, the first rate hike came that December. The next target was 2017 and we have seen the rates continue to rise. The next key target will be 2019.

CBDFOR-Y 3-15-2017

Here is the current Yearly Array. We still see 2019 as a major target objective. Note the Directional Changes either side and higher volatility should begin to appear starting next year.

CBDFOR-Q 3-15-2017

Honing in with the quarterly level, it appears we should be looking at the 1st quarter 2018 as the main target. Note the Directional Change coming the 3rd quarter here in 2017.

CBDFOR-M 3-15-2017

CBDUSA-Q 3-15-2017

We see the resistance standing at 2.25%. So we have a full 1% above the current level to rise before one must consider the crisis in interest rates begins. Keep in mind that low interest rates helps government but kills pensions. Higher rates will help ease the Pension Crisis but create a budget crisis.

Bond Holders will Blame Others for Their Losses


Pointing finger blaming others

QUESTION: Hello Martin

I am beside myself when I look at the disconnect that we are seeing in relation to the US equity market and the US bond market.
Are the bond traders and holders of Bonds going to hold them and incur losses from here on in or will they wake up
and look for a better return?
R
ANSWER: Yes. The rating agencies still regard government debt as less risky than corporate. Therefore, pension funds who sell off government debt and replace it with corporate, face argument with rating agencies. The bulk of government debt will undermine pension funds and banks as we move through this crisis. They are victims of tradition and nonsense. They will suffer losses and blame others.

Fed & Interest Rates


DowIntRates-1929

James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, in a March 3, 2017 interview with the Wall Street Journal, “The recent data aren’t that different from what they were at the time of the January meeting and we didn’t really use the January meeting to set up a March rate hike.” He also offered an important response to what I have been warning about all along. “The one thing that has changed a lot is equity prices.” Historically, the Fed has always responded to stock market rallies despite the fact that recently they have been unwilling to cite asset prices as a reason for a change in interest rates. I have warned that as the stock market rises, they will have NO CHOICE but to raise interest rates for they will be criticized about creating an asset bubble.

BusinessCycle-Waves of Creative Destruction

Bullard for the first time let the cat out of the bag. Yet this is the number one question I have always gotten from central bankers all the time. They do not like to publicly admit it, but they will always be blamed for asset bubbles. They cannot prevent them any more than they can prevent the crash. Nevertheless, Western Culture presumed, ever since Marx, that government plays a role and can be master of the economy. Paul Volcker in his Rediscovery of the Business Cycle said the truth before he became Fed Chairman August 6th, 1979  until August 11th, 1987 just a month before the Crash of 1987. Volcker himself said that Marxist-Keynesian Economics has failed:

“The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle – is a sign of the times. Not much more than a decade ago, in what now seems a more innocent age, the ‘New Economics’ had become orthodoxy. Its basic tenet, repeated in similar words in speech after speech, in article after article, was described by one of its leaders as ‘the conviction that business cycles were not inevitable, that government policy could and should keep the economy close to a path of steady real growth at a constant target rate of unemployment.’ …

But it was not until the events of 1974 and 1975, when a recession sprung on an unsuspecting world with an intensity unmatched in the post-World War II period, that the lessons of the ‘New Economics’ were seriously challenged.”

No matter what they say, the Fed will raise rates when assets rise. They will interpret that as speculation which will lead to inflation BECAUSE that is how Congress will see it as will mainstream media. Consequently, they will have no choice but to raise rates to fight an asset bubble.

Even Market Watch keeps reporting the overall bearishness of the majority of analysts. They wrote base upon the Wall Street soothsayer John Hussman: “This is the most dangerous and overvalued stock market on record — worse than 2007, worse than 2000, even worse than 1929.” Ironically, the more the press keeps touting what has become a perpetual bearishness, the Fed is also afraid to raise rates for they do not want to be blamed for a crash.

This is why the Fed keeps telegraphing they will raise rates to see if the market responds. That provides them deniability if a market declines before they take any action.

Happy Pi Day – Tomorrow is the Ides of March


Pi Day-R

While today is know as Pi Day, tomorrow is the fateful Ides of March and indeed to Trump we must say – Beware! It clearly appears that the Treasury has been deliberately trying to get rid of its cash reserves which stood at $435 billion before the election. They obviously expected President Hillary Clinton would be in the White House and the Democrats would control Congress so there would be no problem in raising the debt ceiling as always.

However, Trump resiodes not Hillary and it clearly seems that the Treasury since January 20th has moved into high gear to create an intentional crisis to blame Trump with 70 years+ of deficit spending post-World War II. The Treasury’s cash has vanished and it has collapsed rapidly down to $88 billion. The massive drain of cash has been deliberate. Never has such a raid decline taken place.
There is a coming disaster thanks to the Obama/Boehner selling out the country. Politicians know that they can do anything as long as you push it off into the future after they leave office for all blame will fall of the next person holding office. Hence, Trump will be blamed for the entire debt – just watch. This will not end nicely.

More Evidence Surfaces – NSA Director Mike Rogers Did Not Aid Obama’s Surveillance Scheme…


Source: More Evidence Surfaces – NSA Director Mike Rogers Did Not Aid Obama’s Surveillance Scheme…

 

Gallery

Kim Jong-un threatens ‘MERCILESS’ attack on America in retaliation for South Korea drills

This gallery contains 2 photos.


Kim Jong Un is either a total idiot or totally crazy or I guess both!.

Can the EU Return to just a Trade Union?


greek-protest-natzi

QUESTION: Hi Marty,

When the EU reaches their “Oh shit!” moment will it be able to devolve back into an Economic union? Is there any possibility that the fall in the Euro will rescue the EU?

Regards,
F

ANSWER: Human nature seems to dictate that will not happen. The attempt by the elite to force a federalized government will only foster the resentment. The Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski of Poland said: “We now know what that is, an EU under the dictate from Berlin.”  The Greeks are resentful of Germany as are the Spanish and Italians and we see the same trend emerging in France. This attempt to force a single government upon Europeans has only fanned the flames the burning wounds from previous world wars.

Those who have taken up jobs in Brussels have no job without a federalization of government. So you have tens of thousands of people who suddenly will be out of work and then you have pensions they voted for themselves. They have far too much self-interest NOT to compromise. It will be an all or nothing affair and that is the sad ending for the EU. It will be too late to return to a simple trade union like NAFTA.

US deploys drones in South Korea capable of striking North Korean targets


Trump is not Obama!

$21,714 For Every Man, Woman And Child In The World – This Global Debt Bomb Is Ready To Explode


Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

According to the International Monetary Fund, global debt has grown to a staggering grand total of 152 trillion dollars.  Other estimates put that figure closer to 200 trillion dollars, but for the purposes of this article let’s use the more conservative number.  If you take 152 trillion dollars and divide it by the seven billion people living on the planet, you get $21,714, which would be the share of that debt for every man, woman and child in the world if it was divided up equally.

So if you have a family of four, your family’s share of the global debt load would be $86,856.

Very few families could write a check for that amount today, and we also must remember that we live in some of the wealthiest areas on the globe.  Considering the fact that more than 3 billion people around the world live on two dollars a day or less, the truth is that about half the planet would not be capable of contributing toward the repayment of our 152 trillion dollar debt at all.  So they should probably be excluded from these calculations entirely, and that would mean that your family’s share of the debt would ultimately be far, far higher.

Of course global debt repayment will never actually be apportioned by family.  The reason why I am sharing this example is to show you that it is literally impossible for all of this debt to ever be repaid.

We are living during the greatest debt bubble in the history of the world, and our financial engineers have got to keep figuring out ways to keep it growing much faster than global GDP because if it ever stops growing it will burst and destroy the entire global financial system.

Bill Gross, one of the most highly respected financial minds on the entire planet, recently observed that “our highly levered financial system is like a truckload of nitro glycerin on a bumpy road”.

And he is precisely correct.  Everything might seem fine for a while, but one day we are going to hit the wrong bump at the wrong time and the whole thing is going to go KA-BOOM.

The financial crisis of 2008 represented an opportunity to learn from our mistakes, but instead we just papered over our errors and cranked up the global debt creation machine to levels never seen before.  Here is more from Bill Gross

 My lesson continued but the crux of it was that in 2017, the global economy has created more credit relative to GDP than that at the beginning of 2008’s disaster. In the U.S., credit of $65 trillion is roughly 350% of annual GDP and the ratio is rising. In China, the ratio has more than doubled in the past decade to nearly 300%. Since 2007, China has added $24 trillion worth of debt to its collective balance sheet. Over the same period, the U.S. and Europe only added $12 trillion each. Capitalism, with its adopted fractional reserve banking system, depends on credit expansion and the printing of additional reserves by central banks, which in turn are re-lent by private banks to create pizza stores, cell phones and a myriad of other products and business enterprises. But the credit creation has limits and the cost of credit (interest rates) must be carefully monitored so that borrowers (think subprime) can pay back the monthly servicing costs. If rates are too high (and credit as a % of GDP too high as well), then potential Lehman black swans can occur. On the other hand, if rates are too low (and credit as a % of GDP declines), then the system breaks down, as savers, pension funds and insurance companies become unable to earn a rate of return high enough to match and service their liabilities.

There is always a price to be paid for going into debt.  It mystifies me that so many Americans seem to not understand this very basic principle.

On an individual level, you could live like a Trump (at least for a while) by getting a whole bunch of credit cards and maxing all of them out.

But eventually a day of reckoning would come.

The same thing happens on a national level.  In recent years we have seen examples in Greece, Cyprus, Zimbabwe, Venezuela and various other European nations.

Here in the United States, more than 9 trillion dollars was added to the national debt during the Obama years.  If we had not taken more than 9 trillion dollars of consumption and brought it into the present, we would most assuredly be in the midst of an epic economic depression right now.

Instead of taking our pain in the short-term, we have sold future generations of Americans as debt slaves, and if they get the chance someday they will look back and curse us for what we have done to them.

Many believe that Donald Trump can make short-term economic conditions even better than Obama did, but how in the world is he going to do that?

Is he going to borrow another 9 trillion dollars?

A big test is coming up.  A while back, Barack Obama and the Republican Congress colluded to suspend the debt ceiling until March 15th, 2017, and this week we are going to hit that deadline.

The U.S. Treasury will be able to implement “emergency measures” for a while, but if the debt ceiling is not raised the U.S. government will not be able to borrow more money and will run out of cash very quickly.  The following comes from David Stockman

 The Treasury will likely be out of cash shortly after Memorial Day. That is, the White House will be in the mother of all debt ceiling battles before the Donald and his team even see it coming.

 With just $66 billion on hand it is now going to run out of cash before even the bloody battle over Obamacare Lite now underway in the House has been completed. That means that there will not be even a glimmer of hope for the vaunted Trump tax cut stimulus and economic rebound on the horizon.

Trump is going to find it quite challenging to find the votes to raise the debt ceiling.  After everything that has happened, very few Democrats are willing to help Trump with anything, and many Republicans are absolutely against raising the debt ceiling without major spending cut concessions.

So we shall see what happens.

If the debt ceiling is not raised, it will almost certainly mean that a major political crisis and a severe economic downturn are imminent.

But if the debt ceiling is raised, it will mean that Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress are willingly complicit in the destruction of this country’s long-term economic future.

When you go into debt there are consequences.

And when the greatest debt bubble in human history finally bursts, the consequences will be exceedingly severe.

The best that our leaders can do for now is to keep the bubble alive for as long as possible, because what comes after the bubble is gone will be absolutely unthinkable.