Now that President Trump has officially designated the Declassification Memorandum we can review the specifics for process, content and timing.  Our previous research led to a set of expectations for the directive. Now, that we have the directive in hand, we gain increased clarity of purpose.

♦ First, President Trump has assigned ownership of the Directive to U.S. Attorney General William Barr. This part was predictable because the purpose of declassification would be to facilitate a DOJ review of how the intelligence apparatus was used in the 2016 election.

Additionally, because the DOJ review encompasses intelligence systems potentially weaponized in 2016 for political purposes and intents, President Trump carries: (a) declassification authority; but also: (b) an inherent conflict.  In this DOJ endeavor candidate Trump would have been the target of corrupt agency activity; and therefore would be considered the target/victim if weaponization were affirmed by evidence.

To avoid the conflict President Trump designates the U.S. Attorney General as arbiter and decision-maker for the purposes of declassifying evidence within the investigation:

…”The Attorney General has also been delegated full and complete authority to declassify information pertaining to this investigation, in accordance with the long-established standards for handling classified information.” (link)

Additionally, AG Bill Barr does not need to assemble the intelligence product for approval by the executive (Trump).  Instead the office of the president is granting the AG full unilateral decision-making as to each product being considered for declassification.

This is a huge amount of trust from the President to the Attorney General, and a big responsibility for William Barr:

[Sec 2] …”With respect to any matter classified under Executive Order 13526 of December 29, 2009 (Classified National Security Information), the Attorney General may, by applying the standard set forth in either section 3.1(a) or section 3.1(d) of Executive Order 13526, declassify, downgrade, or direct the declassification or downgrading of information or intelligence that relates to the Attorney General’s review referred to in section 1 of this memorandum.”  (read more)

The position-designate slightly works around custom insofar as the intelligence hub, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (Dan Coats), is given conference – but the decision making is designated to the Attorney General (Bill Barr).

Essentially the DNI will be following the instructions of the AG for this Memorandum.  This is slightly unusual; but given the purpose, necessary and expected.

♦ Secondly, following protocol, the Memorandum is specific to the agencies carrying the documentation that will be reviewed by the Attorney General: The Secretary of State (Pompeo); the Secretary of Treasury (Mnuchin); the Secretary of Defense (Shanahan); the Secretary of Energy (Perry); the Secretary of Homeland Security (McAleenan); the Director of National Intelligence (Coats); the Director of the CIA (Haspel), and the Attorney General himself (Barr).

The agencies give insight into the intelligence product (ie. evidence) being reviewed.  The Treasury and Energy agency was surprisingly notable:

Considering the purpose of the Memorandum: “The Attorney General is currently conducting a review of intelligence activities relating to the campaigns in the 2016 Presidential election and certain related matters“…  The appearance of Treasury and Energy would indicate the pre-existence of investigative evidence; that would be subject to ongoing DOJ review; and potentially be part of ongoing proceedings.

Potential target issues could include: (1) an investigation of Uranium One; (2) an investigation of the Clinton Foundation; and, (3) an investigation of matters related to payments to Iran.

Treasury would come into play with the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS); which was part of the Uranium One process and also included the Dept. of Energy.  Additional related matters could include George Papadopoulos $10k (Treasury); and The Clinton Foundation.  [Obviously this is supposition, but there are not too many alternate investigative pathways for intelligence within Treasury and Energy.]

The absence of FBI in the memorandum designation is not unusual as the FBI is an internal agency of the DOJ where Barr already has supervision and decision-making authority.

However, that said, one does have to wonder where current FBI Director Christopher Wray, current Deputy Director David Bowditch and current FBI legal counsel Dana Boente line-up within the DOJ investigation itself.

♦ Third, within the memorandum the President does not allow AG Bill Barr to delegate authority.  However, all agencies are required to respond to Barr’s authority.

The purpose of the Declassification Directive also appears to permit the DOJ Inspector General to include classified material in the body of the upcoming report on FISA abuse; this memorandum is granting AG Bill Barr the autonomy to make that decision and declassify that content.

♦ Lastly, regarding the timing of release…. While the purpose of the authority is to empower AG Bill Barr to collect, process and declassify intelligence product that is part of the DOJ investigative review, this does not preclude the public release of intelligence information in advance of the IG report on potential FISA abuse.

Much of the intelligence information may be collected external to the IG review parameters (FISA process), and may be released independently as part of stand-alone declassification that pertains to weaponized DOJ, FBI and CIA political activity.

Ultimately the decision to release, and the timing therein, is now in the hands of U.S. Attorney General William Barr.

• Memorandum Here
• White House Statement Here

(Tweet Link)

President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump made an unscheduled visit to Arlington National Cemetery ahead of Memorial Day.  As more than 260,000 flags were being placed at the graves of U.S. service members, the president and first lady visited with U.S. Army personnel who participate in the annual remembrance and solemn event.

The President and First Lady placed flags at headstone of Frank Buckles who was the last surviving World War I veteran before his passing.  President Trump will not be in the U.S. to observe the Memorial Day holiday, as both he and Melania head to Japan for an official state visit on Friday.

While in Japan President Trump and the first lady will be participating in a Memorial Day event at Yokosuka U.S. Naval Base where they will honor our fallen soldiers.

Video [Note: today’s trip wasn’t on the president’s public schedule, and reporters were kept far away to hear what was said.]

President Trump is holding a White House event to support Farmers and Ranchers and announce a transitionary aid package to help during the restructuring of the global supply chain and a reset in U.S-China engagement. Anticipated start time 3:15pm EDT.

Quite a remarkable presser.

UPDATE: Video Added

White House Livestream – Fox News Livestream – Fox Business Livestream

The headlines are once again examples of an ideological media. “Stunning”, “surprising”, “unexpected”, etc.  However, far from the headline ideology; in a result that is splendidly falling into place for a much more consequential geopolitical landscape; things are going swimmingly…

Reuters Headline: “India’s Modi stuns opposition with huge election win”

NEW DELHI/AYODHYA (Reuters) – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi scored a dramatic election victory on Thursday, putting his Hindu nationalist party on course to increase its majority on a mandate of business-friendly policies and a tough stand on national security.

His re-election reinforces a global trend of right-wing populists sweeping to victory, from the United States to Brazil and Italy, often after adopting harsh positions on protectionism, immigration and defense.

Official data from the Election Commission showed Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party ahead in 302 of the 542 seats up for grabs, up from the 282 it won in 2014 and more than the 272 seats needed for a majority in the lower house of parliament.

That would give his party the first back-to-back majority for a single party since 1984. Votes will be fully counted by Friday morning.

Modi was showered with rose petals by some of the thousands of cheering supporters who waited for hours in a thunderstorm for his arrival at party headquarters on Thursday evening. (read more)

Yes Alice, the planets have aligned.  It is remarkable how each event falls exactly into the place needed for President Donald J Trump.  Truly,… almost divinely inspired.

The BRIC economic alliance (Brazil, Russia, India and China) has been disassembled.  Nationalist/populist Brazil and nationalist/populist India are now more aligned with nationalist/populist Trump.  China and Russia are bleeding cash to retain influence.  Economic security is national security. Things are going swimmingly.

Reminder: All of the geopolitical indicators are present…. and it is important to remember that historic trilateral Buenos Aires summit between President Trump, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and India’s Prime Minister Modi.

Taken in totality with the November 2017 “Golden Ticket” tour of Asia, it looks like President Trump structured two facets of the Indo-Pacific alliance, as far back as 2017, to be a hedge against China.

It appears that President Trump started his administration with a plan for a broad alliance of ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) to replace the U.S. economic engagement with China.  More specifically, it appears to me that President Trump is using Japan as the fulcrum, and repaying Shinzo Abe by working with Modi (India) to open up the India economy.

There’s a similar precedent for this.  Historically, think about how the U.S. helped Canada by using the scale of the U.S. economy to open trade doors, and then leveraging the engaged country to also permit Canadian benefit (entry).

It looks like President Trump is using the ASEAN and Indo-Pacific alliance as the hedge against China.  Japan is key for this to work; with support from Vietnam, S-Korea, Philippines etc; and then Trump repays Japan by opening up the U.S. for India exports, and in turn India opens for Japanese imports.

♦Economic security is national security. ♦The KORUS (South Korea-U.S.) trade deal was already reached last year.  ♦Japan essentially controls the TPP group. ♦A new trilateral alliance resets global supply chains (disrupting One Belt/One Road); and yet retains the value of regional manufacturing (Vietnam, Philippines, S-Korea, etc).

If my spidey-sense is correct, Shinzo Abe will be very open to Trump’s unilateral trade requests (perhaps Monday announcement) because Abe sees an enlarging Japanese GDP through new accessibility to India.  It’s a win-win-win.

Trump opens up for India (Indo-Pacific).

India opens up for Japan (Indo-Pacficic).

Japan increases investment in U.S.A. [(U.S-Japan trade agreement); and with new focus on national security, an expanded Japanese GDP permits security purchases from U.S.A.]

Meanwhile, China is sad panda.

Oh dear, ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, Devin Nunes, is asking President Trump to question U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May:

(source)

This is a very public letter.  Obviously British diplomats, politicians and intelligence officials will have immediately read it.  Perhaps Chairman Devin Nunes is opening the door for President Trump to aid in a more, well, diplomatic approach to the questions.

Heck, there’s no guarantee Theresa May will still be Prime Minister on Friday.  The U.K. election for representatives to the EU parliament is tomorrow, Thursday 5/23/19.  There’s a possibility Nigel Farage’s newly formed Brexit Party is going to win big in that election…. If that happens, U.K. politics will be completely disrupted.

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