NATO Backtracks, Now Admits It Was Not Russia Who Fired Missile into Poland – It Was Ukraine, But Still Putin’s Fault


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 16, 2022 | Sundance 

This is a great example of two dangerous dynamics. First, the intellectual dishonesty that is needed to believe that Russia would attack Poland. Second, the insufferable immediate response from U.S. and international media stenographers lusting for war, and the danger they represent.

After the media initially proclaimed a “pentagon spokesperson” reported that Russia fired two missiles into Poland, and then ran with that narrative with such ferocity that Polish President Duda requested an article-4 convention in preparation for a NATO war,… 24 hours later the NATO alliance says ‘whoops‘ it wasn’t a Russian missile, it was a Ukraine missile that landed in Poland.

(Politico) NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg chaired an emergency meeting of alliance ambassadors on Wednesday in Brussels to discuss the incident.

After the session, he said information so far suggests the missile that landed in Poland came from Ukrainian air defenses fighting off a massive Russian attack on Tuesday that saw the country pummelled by dozens of missiles that caused blackouts across Ukraine.

“We have no indication that this was the result of a deliberate attack,” he said. “And we have no indication that Russia is preparing offensive military actions against NATO. Our preliminary analysis suggests that the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory against Russian cruise missile attacks.”

Duda said the explosion that killed two people in the village of Przewodów, about six kilometers from the Ukrainian border, was likely caused by the missile’s propellant, saying it was probably an S-300 anti-aircraft rocket produced in Soviet times.

“There is also no evidence that it was fired by the Russian side,” he said, calling it “an unfortunate incident.”

Earlier, U.S. President Joe Biden said it was “unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we’ll see.” (read more)

Now let’s get beyond the nonsense and talk about the reality of the situation.

We all know the U.S. State Department, not Ukraine or Zelenskyy, is in control of ground military operations in Ukraine.  As a result of that reality, the intellectually honest observer admits to themselves the CIA is therefore the tip of the spear in the country.

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy today stomping his little feet and saying no, no way it was Ukraine, only highlights the reality of World War Reddit, where Zelenskyy is nothing more than a casual front man -in Hollywood garb- for the CIA/DoS mission.  Puppet Zelenskyy has no idea who, what, where and why strategic U.S. military forces and contractors are operating in his country.  Zelenskyy’s Ukraine function is to be the Bob Geldorf face in the Ukraine funding and money laundering operation. Nothing more.

So, we have a Ukraine missile fired now supposedly fired “errantly” in a westward direction into Poland, while trying to intercept a Russian missile fired from the east.  Um, well, yeah, that sounds like, :::cough::: bullshit :::cough::: but so be it. As the kids say, “whatevs.”

CIA Director Bill Burns also just happened to be in Ukraine at the time of the “errant” missile firing.  What timing…. And all of this comes on the heels of increased public awareness that the FTX cryptocurrency exchange was coordinating the movement of laundering of U.S. taxpayer funds from Ukraine into DC pockets via campaign contributions.  Wow, more coincidences.

The Occam’s Razor of the situation would indicate that our U.S. proxy war against Russia in Ukraine is entering that dark and energy dependent time of the year, ie winter, and Russia is not being defeated in their securing of the pro-Russia eastern Ukraine region.  So, some knuckleheads in the DoS office of plausible deniability, in coordination with some knuckleheads in the CIA office of plausible deniability, decided to try and pull in some more NATO elements with operation “errant missile into Ukraine that we will blame on Putin.”

Brilliant plan guys… except for the whole potential for NATO nuclear war part.

Luckily for the normies in Ukraine, they avoided the downstream consequence, likely operation vaporization, after reasonable people -few though they may be- said, it might not be a good idea for the whole let’s go to war with Russia in winter thing.

Yep, unfortunately that’s the reality of our current state dept geopolitical outlook, in combination with the ideological thirty-somethings that are running out of Hollywood actors to show up and fundraise.

Zelensky the Liar – He Will Be Remembered by History like Hitler


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Nov 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

At 8:18AM Zelensky on a video call to G20 leaders told them that Russia was a “terrorist state” among them and that the attack was deliberate by Russia and that the missiles were a “true statement brought by Russia for the G20 summit.”

It is now confirmed that the missiles were fired by Ukraine. To pretend it was not another “Ukrainian False Flag” they claimed the missiles were fired at a Russian missile and were not intentional. Forget saving the planet for climate change which is also a natural occurrence, the ONLY way to save the planet is to get rid of every Neocon and politician supporting this ruthless liar and remove them from office. Any politicians who supports Ukraine should be charged with conspiracy to create war crimes.

I agree with Henry Kissinger that Ukraine must relinquish the Donbas. Zelensky tears into Kissinger and pretends Russia wants to invade Europe and this is not 1939. I have had employees in Kyiv and Donestk. I am well aware of how deeply seated the hatred of Russians is embedded in Kyiv. You cannot even bring a bottle of Russian vodka to dinner. Anything Russian is an insult and deeply offends them. You have never seen such prejudice and hatred until you deal with Ukrainians. There is ABSOLUTELY nothing that Zelensky will not say to desperately engulf the entire world in his hatred of Russia.

There is NOTHING that Zelensky will ever say that should be taken as fact. The West ignored how as soon as the 2014 Revolution took place, they began their civil war against the Donbas and they began killing Russian civilians on the street of Odesa. NOBODY in the West has EVER even talked about the war crimes of Ukrainians.

I know of two French soldiers who went to Ukraine to fight for freedom and left because of the hatred and war crimes with Ukrainians murdering and torturing Russian soldiers they captured. How about crucifying Russian soldiers and then burning them alive? That is not a war crime?

There is no solution. As long as the West keeps up this proxy war against Russia, there will be World War III and you will find a lot more countries coming to Russia’s side because of the hypocrisy and lies from Zelensky. Throughout the region, even in Macedonia, the people favor Russia because they know what I know about Ukraine and the seething hatred that blinds the country. In Serbia the same. The neighbors of Ukraine know them very well. I have warned, there is a very dark side to Ukraine.

Zelensky has supported the Ukrainian Neo-Nazis who have been protected by the American Neocons. The Ukrainian Neo-Nazis even bragged that they feed the bones of Russian-speaking children to their pet wolves. Zelensky could have easily resolved this entire crisis by honoring the Minsk Agreement and letting the Russian Donbas vote – the very people Zelensky and his Neo-Nazis hate so much. He knows what he is doing by constantly trying to get NATO to enter Ukraine which will be World War III. He said the world should join Ukraine to kill all the Russians because World War III has already started. He will go down in history as someone up there with Adolf Hitler when the dust settles. He wants all our children to die for his personal hatred. He wants to destroy all of our world peace that has been forged since World War II and he wants us to lose our way of life all for his hatred. Pushing Russia against the wall will only lead to Nuclear War. An animal cornered fights to the death. Zelensky has divided the entire world.

Zelensky’s lies will catch up to him and his reign of terror will most likely end by 2025, but he will probably take all of Ukraine with him. We should be mindful that this all goes crazy next year. His lies to create World War III will in the end destroy Ukraine.

NATO Article 5 – Collective Defense


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Nov 16, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

(click on image to enlarge)

I have spent my entire career attempting to prove my own computer system wrong. It brought me no pleasure to reveal that the world was heading into a world war. The War Cycle has never been wrong.

Poland’s attack appears similar to the Lusitania sinking that began World War II. They have lied to start every war using excuses from weapons of mass destruction to the fact that Germans sank the Lusitania because the US was secretly using passenger ships to move weapons to Britain. The collaboration of NATO means that all countries must now act.

Article 5:

  • Collective defence means that an attack against one Ally is considered as an attack against all Allies.
  • The principle of collective defence is enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
  • NATO invoked Article 5 for the first time in its history after the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the United States.
  • NATO has taken collective defence measures on several occasions, including in response to the situation in Syria and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
  • NATO has standing forces on active duty that contribute to the Alliance’s collective defence efforts on a permanent basis.

Bombing Poland is akin to bombing all NATO countries, and each country must collectively respond. NATO was never a means to curb warfare. They have been lining up troops around Eastern Europe in preparation for this moment. Governments would not have sent troops overseas to train Ukrainian soldiers if they did not expect to participate in a war themselves. Hold tight, as this is tragically the beginning.

Russia Denies they Were Their Missiles


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Nov 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Russia has come out and denied that their missiles entered Poland. It is time the West calls out Zelensky for what he is – a ruthless liar who should be removed from power to save humanity – forget the planet. I warned from the outset, this would be the man who will create World War III. He is a total disgrace. He has done nothing but lies to the world EVERY SINGLE TIME. Any Western Media who supports Zelensky are puppets of the deep state and are NOT independent journalists. If they did their job. they would report the truth.

The Ukrainians shot down the Malaysian flight MH17 and tried to blame the Russians in the Donbas. They used an old Russian missile that was no longer in use.  The Ukrainians killed their own people to create a false flag before at Bucha. They massacred Russian civilians in Odessa in May and the West was silent. Those who went to Ukraine believing they were fighting for democracy have returned accusing Ukraine of carrying out war crimes.

Besides Zelensky outlawing the Russian language when the people of Eastern Ukraine are ethnic Russians who have lived there for centuries and Ukraine NEVER existed before the USSR,  he has also carried out a Holy War outlawing Russian churches and demanding they are not subservient to Kyiv. They is no different from the French seizure of the Vatican and moving it to Avinion – the period of the anti-popes. He has done the same thing and outlawed the equivalent of the pope to Russian Orthodox. He has not just denied democracy by rejecting the Belgrade and Minsk Agreements where the Donbas was to vote for their own independence, but he has even denied them the Freedom of Religion.

This is the man who is destroying the world and the West cheers this character? Every newspaper that cheers the death of people on the battlefield and civilians all to support this ruthless greedy character, has washed their hands in blood. They should put on their high heels to join him on the world stage. Claiming they cannot “independently” confirm is not good enough They are COVERING UP the Truth.

The Dirty Secrets inside the Black Box Climate Models


By Greg Chapman
“The world has less than a decade to change course to avoid irreversible ecological catastrophe, the UN warned today.” The Guardian Nov 28 2007
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra
Introduction
Global extinction due to global warming has been predicted more times than climate activist, Leo DiCaprio, has traveled by private jet.  But where do these predictions come from? If you thought it was just calculated from the simple, well known relationship between CO2 and solar energy spectrum absorption, you would only expect to see about 0.5o C increase from pre-industrial temperatures as a result of CO2 doubling, due to the logarithmic nature of the relationship.
Figure 1: Incremental warming effect of CO2 alone [1]
The runaway 3-6o C and higher temperature increase model predictions depend on coupled feedbacks from many other factors, including water vapour (the most important greenhouse gas), albedo (the proportion of energy reflected from the surface – e.g. more/less ice or clouds, more/less reflection) and aerosols, just to mention a few, which theoretically may amplify the small incremental CO2 heating effect. Because of the complexity of these interrelationships, the only way to make predictions is with climate models because they can’t be directly calculated.
The purpose of this article is to explain to the non-expert, how climate models work, rather than a focus on the issues underlying the actual climate science, since the models are the primary ‘evidence’ used by those claiming a climate crisis. The first problem, of course, is no model forecast is evidence of anything. It’s just a forecast, so it’s important to understand how the forecasts are made, the assumptions behind them and their reliability.
How do Climate Models Work?
In order to represent the earth in a computer model, a grid of cells is constructed from the bottom of the ocean to the top of the atmosphere. Within each cell, the component properties, such as temperature, pressure, solids, liquids and vapour, are uniform.
The size of the cells varies between models and within models. Ideally, they should be as small as possible as properties vary continuously in the real world, but the resolution is constrained by computing power. Typically, the cell area is around 100×100 km2 even though there is considerable atmospheric variation over such distances, requiring each of the physical properties within the cell to be averaged to a single value. This introduces an unavoidable error into the models even before they start to run.
The number of cells in a model varies, but the typical order of magnitude is around 2 million.
Figure 2: Typical grid used in climate models [2]

Once the grid has been constructed, the component properties of each these cells must be determined. There aren’t, of course, 2 million data stations in the atmosphere and ocean. The current number of data points is around 10,000 (ground weather stations, balloons and ocean buoys), plus we have satellite data since 1978, but historically the coverage is poor. As a result, when initialising a climate model starting 150 years ago, there is almost no data available for most of the land surface, poles and oceans, and nothing above the surface or in the ocean depths. This should be understood to be a major concern.
Figure 3: Global weather stations circa 1885 [3]

Once initialised, the model goes through a series of timesteps. At each step, for each cell, the properties of the adjacent cells are compared. If one such cell is at a higher pressure, fluid will flow from that cell to the next. If it is at higher temperature, it warms the next cell (whilst cooling itself). This might cause ice to melt or water to evaporate, but evaporation has a cooling effect. If polar ice melts, there is less energy reflected that causes further heating. Aerosols in the cell can result in heating or cooling and an increase or decrease in precipitation, depending on the type.
Increased precipitation can increase plant growth as does increased CO2. This will change the albedo of the surface as well as the humidity. Higher temperatures cause greater evaporation from oceans which cools the oceans and increases cloud cover. Climate models can’t model clouds due to the low resolution of the grid, and whether clouds increase surface temperature or reduce it, depends on the type of cloud.
It’s complicated! Of course, this all happens in 3 dimensions and to every cell resulting in considerable feedback to be calculated at each timestep.
The timesteps can be as short as half an hour. Remember, the terminator, the point at which day turns into night, travels across the earth’s surface at about 1700 km/hr at the equator, so even half hourly timesteps introduce further error into the calculation, but again, computing power is a constraint.
While the changes in temperatures and pressures between cells are calculated according to the laws of thermodynamics and fluid mechanics, many other changes aren’t calculated. They rely on parameterisation. For example, the albedo forcing varies from icecaps to Amazon jungle to Sahara desert to oceans to cloud cover and all the reflectivity types in between. These properties are just assigned and their impacts on other properties are determined from lookup tables, not calculated. Parameterisation is also used for cloud and aerosol impacts on temperature and precipitation. Any important factor that occurs on a subgrid scale, such as storms and ocean eddy currents must also be parameterised with an averaged impact used for the whole grid cell. Whilst the effects of these factors are based on observations, the parameterisation is far more a qualitative rather than a quantitative process, and often described by modelers themselves as an art, that introduces further error. Direct measurement of these effects and how they are coupled to other factors is extremely difficult and poorly understood.
Within the atmosphere in particular, there can be sharp boundary layers that cause the models to crash. These sharp variations have to be smoothed.
Energy transfers between atmosphere and ocean are also problematic. The most energetic heat transfers occur at subgrid scales that must be averaged over much larger areas.
Cloud formation depends on processes at the millimeter level and are just impossible to model. Clouds can both warm as well as cool. Any warming increases evaporation (that cools the surface) resulting in an increase in cloud particulates. Aerosols also affect cloud formation at a micro level.  All these effects must be averaged in the models.
When the grid approximations are combined with every timestep, further errors are introduced and with half hour timesteps over 150 years, that’s over 2.6 million timesteps! Unfortunately, these errors aren’t self-correcting. Instead this numerical dispersion accumulates over the model run, but there is a technique that climate modelers use to overcome this, which I describe shortly.
Figure 4: How grid cells interact with adjacent cells [4]

Model Initialisation
After the construction of any type of computer model, there is an initalisation process whereby the model is checked to see whether the starting values in each of the cells are physically consistent with one another. For example, if you are modelling a bridge to see whether the design will withstand high winds and earthquakes, you make sure that before you impose any external forces onto the model structure other than gravity, that it meets all the expected stresses and strains of a static structure. Afterall, if the initial conditions of your model are incorrect, how can you rely on it to predict what will happen when external forces are imposed in the model?
Fortunately, for most computer models, the properties of the components are quite well known and the initial condition is static, the only external force being gravity. If your bridge doesn’t stay up on initialisation, there is something seriously wrong with either your model or design!
With climate models, we have two problems with initialisation. Firstly, as previously mentioned, we have very little data for time zero, whenever we chose that to be. Secondly, at time zero, the model is not in a static steady state as is the case for pretty much every other computer model that has been developed. At time zero, there could be a blizzard in Siberia, a typhoon in Japan, monsoons in Mumbai and a heatwave in southern Australia, not to mention the odd volcanic explosion, which could all be gone in a day or so.
There is never a steady state point in time for the climate, so it’s impossible to validate climate models on initialisation.
The best climate modelers can hope for is that their bright shiny new model doesn’t crash in the first few timesteps.
The climate system is chaotic which essentially means any model will be a poor predictor of the future – you can’t even make a model of a lottery ball machine (which is a comparatively a much simpler and smaller interacting system) and use it to predict the outcome of the next draw.
So, if climate models are populated with little more than educated guesses instead of actual observational data at time zero, and errors accumulate with every timestep, how do climate modelers address this problem?
History matching
If the system that’s being computer modelled has been in operation for some time, you can use that data to tune the model and then start the forecast before that period finishes to see how well it matches before making predictions. Unlike other computer modelers, climate modelers call this ‘hindcasting’ because it doesn’t sound like they are manipulating the model parameters to fit the data.
The theory is, that even though climate model construction has many flaws, such as large grid sizes, patchy data of dubious quality in the early years, and poorly understood physical phenomena driving the climate that has been parameterised, that you can tune the model during hindcasting within parameter uncertainties to overcome all these deficiencies.
While it’s true that you can tune the model to get a reasonable match with at least some components of history, the match isn’t unique.
When computer models were first being used last century, the famous mathematician, John Von Neumann, said:
“with four parameters I can fit an elephant, with five I can make him wiggle his trunk”
In climate models there are hundreds of parameters that can be tuned to match history. What this means is there is an almost infinite number of ways to achieve a match. Yes, many of these are non-physical and are discarded, but there is no unique solution as the uncertainty on many of the parameters is large and as long as you tune within the uncertainty limits, innumerable matches can still be found.
An additional flaw in the history matching process is the length of some of the natural cycles. For example, ocean circulation takes place over hundreds of years, and we don’t even have 100 years of data with which to match it.
In addition, it’s difficult to history match to all climate variables. While global average surface temperature is the primary objective of the history matching process, other data, such a tropospheric temperatures, regional temperatures and precipitation, diurnal minimums and maximums are poorly matched.
Even so, can the history matching of the primary variable, average global surface temperature, constrain the accumulating errors that inevitably occur with each model timestep?
Forecasting
Consider a shotgun. When the trigger is pulled, the pellets from the cartridge travel down the barrel, but there is also lateral movement of the pellets. The purpose of the shotgun barrel is to dampen the lateral movements and to narrow the spread when the pellets leave the barrel. It’s well known that shotguns have limited accuracy over long distances and there will be a shot pattern that grows with distance.  The history match period for a climate model is like the barrel of the shotgun. So what happens when the model moves from matching to forecasting mode?
Figure 5: IPCC models in forecast mode for the Mid-Troposphere vs Balloon and Satellite observations [5]
Like the shotgun pellets leaving the barrel, numerical dispersion takes over in the forecasting phase. Each of the 73 models in Figure 5 has been history matched, but outside the constraints of the matching period, they quickly diverge.
Now at most only one of these models can be correct, but more likely, none of them are. If this was a real scientific process, the hottest two thirds of the models would be rejected by the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), and further study focused on the models closest to the observations. But they don’t do that for a number of reasons.
Firstly, if they reject most of the models, there would be outrage amongst the climate scientist community, especially from the rejected teams due to their subsequent loss of funding. More importantly, the so called 97% consensus would instantly evaporate.
Secondly, once the hottest models were rejected, the forecast for 2100 would be about 1.5o C increase (due predominately to natural warming) and there would be no panic, and the gravy train would end.
So how should the IPPC reconcile this wide range of forecasts?
Imagine you wanted to know the value of bitcoin 10 years from now so you can make an investment decision today. You could consult an economist, but we all know how useless their predictions are. So instead, you consult an astrologer, but you worry whether you should bet all your money on a single prediction. Just to be safe, you consult 100 astrologers, but they give you a very wide range of predictions. Well, what should you do now? You could do what the IPCC does, and just average all the predictions.
You can’t improve the accuracy of garbage by averaging it.
An Alternative Approach
Climate modelers claim that a history match isn’t possible without including CO2 forcing. This is may be true using the approach described here with its many approximations, and only tuning the model to a single benchmark (surface temperature) and ignoring deviations from others (such as tropospheric temperature), but analytic (as opposed to numeric) models have achieved matches without CO2 forcing. These are models, based purely on historic climate cycles that identify the harmonics using a mathematical technique of signal analysis, which deconstructs long and short term natural cycles of different periods and amplitudes without considering changes in CO2 concentration.
In Figure 6, a comparison is made between the IPCC predictions and a prediction from just one analytic harmonic model that doesn’t depend on CO2 warming. A match to history can be achieved through harmonic analysis and provides a much more conservative prediction that correctly forecasts the current pause in temperature increase, unlike the IPCC models. The purpose of this example isn’t to claim that this model is more accurate, it’s just another model, but to dispel the myth that there is no way history can be explained without anthropogenic CO2 forcing and to show that it’s possible to explain the changes in temperature with natural variation as the predominant driver.
Figure 6: Comparison of the IPCC model predictions with those from a harmonic analytical model [6]

In summary:
Climate models can’t be validated on initiatialisation due to lack of data and a chaotic initial state.
Model resolutions are too low to represent many climate factors.
Many of the forcing factors are parameterised as they can’t be calculated by the models.
Uncertainties in the parameterisation process mean that there is no unique solution to the history matching.
Numerical dispersion beyond the history matching phase results in a large divergence in the models.
The IPCC refuses to discard models that don’t match the observed data in the prediction phase – which is almost all of them.
The question now is, do you have the confidence to invest trillions of dollars and reduce standards of living for billions of people, to stop climate model predicted global warming or should we just adapt to the natural changes as we always have?
Greg Chapman  is a former (non-climate) computer modeler.
Footnotes
[1] https://www.adividedworld.com/scientific-issues/thermodynamic-effects-of-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide-revisited/
[2] https://serc.carleton.edu/eet/envisioningclimatechange/part_2.html
[3] https://climateaudit.org/2008/02/10/historical-station-distribution/
[4]            http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/fall16/atmo336/lectures/sec6/weather_forecast.html
[5] https://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/06/still-epic-fail-73-climate-models-vs-measurements-running-5-year-means/
Whilst climate models are tuned to surface temperatures, they predict a tropospheric hotspot that doesn’t exist. This on its own should invalidate the models.
[6] https://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/09/scaffeta-on-his-latest-paper-harmonic-climate-model-versus-the-ipcc-general-circulation-climate-models/