The Bank of England All but Admits Recession


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN Re-Posted Sep 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Bank of England (BoE) all but admitted the UK is officially in a recession. Bank Governor Andrew Bailey stated weeks ago that there was nothing the central bank could do to prevent a recession at this stage. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to raise rates by half a percentage point to 2.25%, marking the highest level since 2008. The markets were expecting a 75 bps hike, but the central bank is moving slowly and aiming to avoid panic.

The central bank foresees a 0.1% drop in GDP over the next three months after experiencing a 0.1% decline last quarter. The CPI report for August came in at 9.9%, which is only a slight drop from July’s 10.1% reading. Winter is coming, and that is when the full impact of the energy crisis will be felt. The BoE believes inflation will rise to 11% in October when energy caps are altered. Like the Federal Reserve, the BOE is a long way from its 2% inflation target and relied on QE for far too long.

The dollar’s strength continues to cause a devaluation in sterling as the USD is seen as the last safe haven.

Russian Anti-War Protests & the 3rd Generation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Sep 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

After many discussions from both sides of the Ukrainian conflict, I believe that my observation of a generational shift is important. The cycle is always driven by a cyclical nature that, in part, is driven by changes in attitudes between generations. The anti-war protests in Russia rose from the youth over the Ukrainian war. What is unfolding in Russia is because the youth protesting has never known war. They are too young even to have known about the Afghanistan invasion of 1989, which was 33 years ago. This stands in contrast to Americans who have known nothing but endless wars one after the other. I have family who has fought in Afghanistan and Iraq. Most of us have at least known someone who has fought there. War has become more of a normal occurrence to Americans, although many have disagreed with this policy of endless wars including Donald Trump.

The problem Russia has is that war is always created by the political class. It is this older generation that sees war always as an option and they are now in charge of most Western countries. Add to this, the Ukrainian war is REALLY being driven to defeat Russia for climate change. The World Economic Forum is pushing war behind the scenes with the excuse that Russia must be defeated to end their production of fossil fuels and give birth to Schwab’s New Age of dictatorship (Great Reset) to save the planet. This requires our surrender of freedom and reliance on fossil fuels and if had his way, we would all have chips implanted in our heads to prevent rebellions.

The words of wisdom behind cycles may be, in part, the Chinese proverb, 富不过三代? Roughly translated, it means “You can only keep wealth in the family for three generations.” What tends to emerge is the third generation seems to typically experience apathy. The second generation will often clash with the first not seeking to follow in the same footsteps and as such by the third generation, whatever company they formed will typically collapse unless it is sold off and becomes a public company. This is the fate of most businesses, but it is also the fate of political ideas.

Those above holding the reins of power over us mortal peons, always know better. Both Bill Clinton and Obama were tough on illegal immigrants. Obama deported more illegal aliens than even Trump. Something changed and Biden just reads the cue cards so the shift in direction to be a climate zealot was not his personal initiative, but he does as he is told. When he blurts out things that are outrageous, the White House immediately clarifies and tries desperately to whitewash what he says.

This was with Russia is on and it is more about climate change than anything else. The hope is to defeat Russia, subjugate its people, and bring it into the new world order of controlled poverty for about 50% of the Russian people will be on welfare if the mining for natural resources comes to an end. Putin understands the game and his words are not being heard by the youth who have not known war. To them, they do not understand the agenda.

This war was PROVOKED to ensure that Putin would take the bait and invade Ukraine. The day before his invasion on February 24th, 2022, Zelensky stood up and said he was breaking all previous agreements of neutrality and that Ukraine would arm itself with nuclear weapons against Russia. The US invades Iraq on the claim that they had “weapons of mass destruction” and they deliberately pushed Putin to invade so they could claim he was the aggressor.

In 2014 and the overthrow of Yanukovich, the West installed their “interim” government which was UNELECTED, and instantly sent the army to attack the Donbas. McCain promised the Ukrainian Neo-Nazis funding to wage war against Russia as soon as Trump was elected in December 1996. When Trump refused to fund McCain’s endless wars against Russia, then Trump became his hated enemy and his legendary attitude of holding a grudge was carried out right to his grave insisting Trump was not to speak or attend his funeral. He was the worse person I ever met on Capitol Hill.

McCain was pushing Obama to invade Syria to push through a gas pipeline to Europe to undermine Russia. It was McCain who wanted nukes in Checkosovakia and pointed at Russia against the people’s will. He spent his entire life in a grudge match against Russia and that began long before Putin ever came to power. He was the header of the pack of Neocons.

There are Neocons, and Hillary was one of them. They cannot sleep at night without dreaming about how to destroy Russia and China. This is the hateful generation of leaders who will take the world to war. Peace will only come when they finally expire from this world and then the third generation will start all over again.

Jared Kushner Under Fire for Not Supporting Ron DeSantis Political Use of Texas Alien Transfers


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 23, 2022 | Sundance

The DeSantis Crew, formerly the 2016 Cruz Crew, is up in arms over a selectively edited soundbite from Jared Kusher, President Trump’s son-in-law. {Direct Rumble Link}

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis went shopping for South American aliens at an El Paso migrant processing facility in Texas.  The DeSantis people took the aliens to a hotel with plans to fly them to Delaware, Joe Biden’s home state.  However, facing backlash over the legality of spending Florida funds on a previous operation to move Texas migrants to Martha’s Vineyard, the DeSantis team abandoned the recruited Venezuelan aliens at the hotel, leaving them confused and stranded.

Jared Kushner noted in a Fox appearance that he did not like the approach of recruiting, manipulating and using arriving aliens as political pawns.  Immediately the DeSantis supporters pulled an 8-second soundbite from a one-hour Fox News appearance and proclaimed Kusher was criticizing Ron DeSantis, which in the world view of Team DeSantis makes Kushner an enemy.  However, the full statement with context is not controversial at all, and in my opinion Kusher is correct.  WATCH:

.

The fact that Ron DeSantis sent people to Texas to recruit aliens from an El Paso processing facility with the promise of a flight to Delaware, then abandoned them when the political heat started, literally leaving them at the hotel confused and waiting for a bus that never arrived, shows the operation itself was using aliens as “political pawns,” and it is unseemly.

The DeSantis people can try to spin this against Kushner, but the outrage should really be toward the people working for DeSantis who pulled this stunt.

Massachusetts Energy Companies Announce 64% Increase in Electricity Rates Beginning November 1st


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 22, 2022 | Sundance 

National Grid and Eversource are the two major electricity providers for Massachusetts. Both companies have notified the Department of Public Utilities (DPU) that rates for electricity are about to skyrocket.

National Grid has announced a 64% increase in electricity rates effective November 1st. While Eversource is on a different schedule, they too have announced an increase in natural gas rates of 38% on November 1st and the January 1, 2023, electricity rate will be announced in the next few weeks. Eversource is anticipated to announce a similar rate increase to National Grid. WATCH:

Both major power companies rely on natural gas to create electricity.  Thanks to Joe Biden’s energy policies, which includes the massive export of natural gas in LNG form, domestic prices for natural gas have skyrocketed and will continue increasing as production is further shut down by regulation.

We are helping the EU survive their sanction driven energy crisis by sending them natural gas (LNG format), while simultaneously forcing Americans to pay more in order to maintain the EU export.   Everything about the process is FUBAR.

Massachusetts – […] National Grid said the monthly bill of a typical residential customer using 600 kilowatt-hours of electricity will increase from $179 last winter to about $293 this winter, an increase of about 64%. National Grid said the delivery portion of electric bills will basically remain flat.

“National Grid buys electricity on behalf of its customers from the wholesale power market through a regulatory approved process established 20 years ago. That process has served customers well over the years and provides flexibility for unforeseen events, like limited supplier response to solicitations. But things have fundamentally changed,” Helen Burt, the company’s chief customer officer, said in a statement. “Today, under a sustained, high market price environment, it is challenging to maintain affordable prices. Given that, we think it’s a good time to work with our regulators and other stakeholders to review the process and electricity supply dynamics in the region, with an eye toward reducing price volatility and maintaining a secure, reliable and resilient energy system for the future.”

The company also announced that its natural gas rates are expected to rise on Nov. 1. They said they have a pending proposal with the state Department of Public Utilities that would result in the monthly bill for an average Boston Gas residential heating customer using 115 therms per month of $278, an increase of $50, or 22%, compared to last winter’s rates.

Eversource, the state’s other major electric provider, said in an email that it is on a different schedule than National Grid for setting its electric rates so no increases are currently planned.

“We file electric base service rates twice per year with the DPU,” company spokesman Chris McKinnon said. “Our last change was on July 1, 2022 and our next change will be January 1, 2023, which we will be filing for in the coming months.”

Over the border in New Hampshire, Eversource announced in July that electric rates would be doubling for many residents due to higher natural gas prices fueled in part by the war in Ukraine.

Eversource did announce Wednesday that it has submitted a proposal to the Department of Public Utilities seeking to raise its natural gas rates. They said their average residential customer using 126 therms of gas a month would see an increase of about 38%, or $86 on their natural gas bill over last winter. Those rate increases would take effect Nov. 1.  (read m0re)

Putin is at War with the West – Not Ukraine


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Sep 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Vladimir Putin’s recent speech is making headlines as people falsely claim Russia is about to launch an all-out nuclear attack. Putin is sticking to his same plan and says it in his opening statement: “The subject of this address is the situation in Donbas and the course of the special military operation to liberate it from the neo-Nazi regime, which seized power in Ukraine in 2014 as the result of an armed state coup.” Russia must now play defense as they are no longer simply battling Ukraine.

Putin stated that in 1991 the West prided itself on dividing the USSR, and believes “now is the time to do the same to Russia, which must be divided into numerous regions that would be at deadly feud with each other. They decided these plans years ago.”

Putin knows that he is fighting a NATO offensive and not simply Ukraine and directly calls out Washington, London, and Brussels. He correctly stated that the West first set out to demonize Russia and spread “Russophobia,” as they did during the Cold War. NATO and the West are now the opponents of Russia in this proxy war, while the Ukrainian people are merely cannon fodder used to usher in this new world.

Putin has been trying to reclaim land since 2014. He had no plan to seize Ukraine, but did want to reclaim the Donbas. This is much bigger than Russia v Ukraine as he fears he must act on the offensive against most of the world’s superpowers who want to seize Russia. They are shoving endless funds into Ukraine because they expect a prize in the end. Putin stated that he attempted peace talks, but the West shot them down because they craved war.

“After the start of the special military operation, in particular after the Istanbul talks, Kiev representatives voiced quite a positive response to our proposals. These proposals concerned above all ensuring Russia’s security and interests. But a peaceful settlement obviously did not suit the West, which is why, after certain compromises were coordinated, Kiev was actually ordered to wreck all these agreements.

More weapons were pumped into Ukraine. The Kiev regime brought into play new groups of foreign mercenaries and nationalists, military units trained according to NATO standards and receiving orders from Western advisers.”

This will not end well; the West made it clear that peace would not be an option. Zelensky is simply the face of a much larger plan at play that involves an ongoing plot to seize Russia, which has been happening behind the scenes for decades.

One-Third of Canadians Worried About Daily Expenses


Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada Re-Posted Sep 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Inflation is hurting everyone. The Financial Wellbeing Index for Summer 2022 by Lifeworks found that 29% of 3,000 respondents said they are concerned they can no longer afford daily life expenses. The measure for overall financial well-being fell to 64%, which is the lowest number recorded since the survey began in the winter of 2021.

Those under 40, who have had less time in the workforce to save, are significantly more troubled and are 75% more likely to report worry over basic life expenses. Parents are 40% more likely to be concerned about covering expenses. Perhaps this is why the government is slowly grabbing workers in a socialistic plot – don’t worry, the government will take care of you!

Half of those who expressed concern said that food prices had made the most notable dent in their wallets, while 35% cited gas costs. Nearly a quarter said they are worried about making good on their mortgage payments.

Inflation in Canada reached 7.6% in July, with core inflation up 6.6%. Inflation fell by 0.6% in August on the monthly level but is still up 7% annually. Government is engulfing the private sectorand long-term growth is not a priority for the Trudeau Administration.

Achtung! Producer Prices in Germany Jump 7.9 Percent in August to 45.8 Percent, Highest Jump in Prices in History of German Economy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 20, 2022

The statistics behind the energy impact upon the German economy, the largest economy in the European Union, are almost unfathomable in scale.  There is no way for the German industrial economy to continue with this level of price pressure.  Stick a fork in the current creation of German industrial products and exports, the inflection point of feasibility for continued production has been crossed.  They are done.

According to release statistics from the German economic ministry, energy prices in August were more than double the same period last year, up 139%.  The monthly increase was more than 20.4% higher than July.  Additionally, producer prices for electricity rose 174.9% compared with August 2021 and by 26.4% in a single month.

This jaw-dropping increase in energy cost has resulted in German manufacturing prices for industrial goods jumping 7.9% in August alone, with a year-over-year increase in the cost to manufacture goods at 45.8%.  That is the highest rate of price increase since Germany began recording their statistics in 1939.

BERLIN, Sept 19 (Reuters) – German producer prices rose in August at their strongest rate since records began both in annual and monthly terms, driven mainly by soaring energy prices, raising the chances that headline inflation will surge even higher.

Producer prices of industrial products increased by 45.8% on the same month last year, the Federal Statistical Office reported on Tuesday. Compared to July 2022, prices rose 7.9%, it added.

The surge was considerably stronger than expected, with analysts having forecast a 37.1% year-on-year rise and a 1.6% monthly rise, according to a Reuters poll.

In July, the year-on-year increase had been 37.2% and in June 32.7%.

Energy prices in August on average were over double the same period last year, up 139%, and 20.4% higher than the previous month, the office reported. (read more)

Once again, my friends…. Pretending meets reality!

What does this mean in practical terms?

Firstly, it means the people within Germany and the larger EU will not be able to afford goods if the increased price to manufacture them is passed on to customers.  German industrial goods, including the heavily dependent auto sector, will hit the market at double the price from last year.  Exported goods, again assuming the government doesn’t provide some sort of subsidy to offset, would also double.

Secondly, it means the prices of used goods will increase in value.  With imported vehicles holding that scale of increased manufacturing price, I would expect to see German automobile dealers in the U.S. sending out incentives to purchase used BMW’s, Audi’s and Mercedes for the products that are not produced in North America.

Lastly, on a global scale, Germany is dependent on selling industrial equipment to Asia and North America in the manufacturing sector.  With declining demand for finished products -the result of inflation- there was already a lowered demand for machinery, machined tools and heavy equipment.  Downward pressure due to a lack of demand, combined with upward price pressure to manufacture the industrial products, creates an even worse scenario.

Right now, Germany is on the cusp of a full-blown economic meltdown, and as we have seen recently German Minister of Economics Robert Habeck (pictured below) has no idea how to handle it.

~ The Pretenders ~

Holy SH*T, this is DEVASTATING and Putin knows it | Redacted with Clayton Morris


Redacted News Published originally on Rumble on September 19, 2022

Vladimir Putin just issued a clear warning on the future of the war in Ukraine on a day when Donetsk saw unspeakable attacks. Lara Logan speaks about the UN’s secret plan to change the face of North America through immigration. Nancy Pelosi goes to Armenia. The Program starts at the 31 minute point.

Live Interview with RT Moscow


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Sep 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I was asked to speak live on RT. Tune in to learn more about inflation, sanctions, war,  the energy crisis fueled by the Green Agenda, and the forever-changed world economy. click here to watch.

A Technical Study of Relationships in Solar Flux, Water and other Gasses in the upper Atmosphere, Using the August, 2022 NASA & NOAA Data


From the attached report on climate change for August 2022 Data we have the two charts showing how much the global temperature has actually gone up since we started to measure CO2 in the atmosphere in 1958? To show this graphically Chart 8a was constructed by plotting CO2 as a percent increase from when it was first measured in 1958, the Black plot, the scale is on the left and it shows CO2 going up by about 32.0% from 1958 to August of 2022. That is a very large change as anyone would have to agree.  Now how about temperature, well when we look at the percentage change in temperature also from 1958, using Kelvin (which does measure the change in heat), we find that the changes in global temperature (heat) is almost un-measurable at only .4%.

As you see the increase in energy, heat, is not visually observably in this chart hence the need for another Chart 8 to show the minuscule increase in thermal energy shown by NASA in relationship to the change in CO2 Shown in the next Chart using a different scale.

This is Chart 8 which is the same as Chart 8a except for the scales. The scale on the right side had to be expanded 10 times (the range is 50 % on the left and 5% on the right) to be able to see the plot in the same chart in any detail. The red plot, starting in 1958, shows that the thermal energy in the earth’s atmosphere increased by .40%; while CO2 has increased by 32.0% which is 80 times that of the increase in temperature. So is there really a meaningful link between them that would give as a major problem?

Based to these trends, determined by excel not me, in 2028 CO2 will be 428 ppm and temperatures will be a bit over 15.0o Celsius and in 2038 CO2 will be 458 ppm and temperatures will be 15.6O Celsius.

The NOAA and NASA numbers tell us the True story of the

Changes in the planets Atmosphere

The full 40 page report explains how these charts were developed .