Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

Mar 23 2025

Mt Spurr Alaska – Activity Rising


Posted originally on Mar 23, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Mt Spurr 1992

COMMENT: Marty, Here in Alaska, we have been put on alert that Mt Spurr may erupt soon. Your computer has been remarkable projecting these trend of rising volcanic activity here in 2025 and we are still in the first quarter. Do you have any historical analysis of Mt. Spurr?

Rob

REPLY: Mount Spurr, a stratovolcano in Alaska’s Aleutian Arc, had no confirmed historical eruptions that have been documented in human records prior to its significant 1953 eruption. However, geological studies reveal prehistoric activity:

  1. Holocene Eruptions:
    • The most recent major eruptive period occurred approximately 8,000–9,000 years ago, involving pyroclastic flows and lava dome formation that shaped the current structure of the volcano. These eruptions were identified through tephrochronology and radiocarbon dating of volcanic deposits.
  2. Late Pleistocene Activity:
    • Evidence suggests earlier eruptions during the late Pleistocene, though precise dates are less well-constrained. These events contributed to the volcano’s formation and growth.

It is under watch right now for a possible eruption. Before 1953, Mount Spurr’s eruptions were prehistoric, with no written records or observations. Mount Spurr’s prehistoric eruptions are primarily studied through geology, but their ash layers provide valuable tools for archaeologists.

The 1953 eruption of Mount Spurr in Alaska was classified as a VEI 3 (Volcanic Explosivity Index 3) event. This eruption on July 9, 1953, produced a significant Plinian ash column reaching approximately 21 km (70,000 feet) in height. However, the volume of erupted material (tephra) was estimated at around 0.021 km³, placing it within the VEI 3 range (0.01–0.1 km³).

There were earthquakes in 2004 and debris flows by 2005. That was 51 years from 1953. Since this should be fractal, I would suspect there was probably a big one around 5200 years prior. This could be building to a big one above VEI 5 by 2031/2032. It should be coming alive here of the 72-year cycle from 1953 which brings us to 2025. We may still be looking at a VEI3 or VEI4 for that would leave the door open for a bigger one by 2031/2032.

For comparison, Mount Spurr’s 1992 eruption was rated VEI3/VEI 4, with a slightly higher tephra volume (-0.055 km³) and a plume height of 14 km. The distinction underscores that VEI considers both eruptive volume and secondary factors like plume height and eruption duration. The 1953 event, while explosive and impactful, did not meet the volume threshold for VEI 4.

Understanding the VEI

Each VEI level represents a tenfold increase in erupted material (e.g., VEI 4 is 10x larger than VEI 3). Higher VEI eruptions produce taller plumes, injecting ash and gases into the stratosphere (VEI 5+ can affect global climate). More significant eruptions (VEI 5+) are less frequent but more destructive.

VEI 7: Tambora (1815) ejected 160 km³ of material into the atmosphere, thereby reducing global temperatures by -3°C, known as the Year without a Summer in 1816.

VEI 6: Pinatubo (1991) released 10 km³, causing global cooling by -0.5°C.

VEI 5: Mount St. Helens (1980) erupted 1 km³, but did not alter the climate yet it was devastating 600 km²

Mar 23 2025

British Press Call for World War III?


Posted originally on Mar 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

2025_03_22Heathrow_fire_is_that_an_act_of_war_

At this stage in this game of warmongering, the British press not only keeps saying that Russia trembles less at the thought of their nuclear power but is pushing the image that Britain is invincible. The latest is the electrical fire that shut down Heathrow Airport for 24 hours. There are openly speculating that this was an act of war by Putin. So, I supposed that justifies World War III and nuking Moscow. The Telegraph wrote:

But as the West has expelled so many Russian spies in the years since then, Putin now relies on unprofessional foreign gangsters to carry out sabotage attacks across Europe. Some are Bulgarian spies, as The Telegraph reported in late 2024. Others are British nationals, such as 20-year-old Dylan Earl, who admitted to burning down a Ukrainian-owned business in west London.

Perfectly reasonable. Let’s torch all of the world for an electrical fire that shut down the airport for 24 hours. Starmer can destroy Russia in seconds, so no worries; Putin is terrified of Starmer and will not be able to retaliate. Hence, the Telegraph will sell heaps of more newspapers since the British Empire will rise again.

Mar 22 2025

Martin Armstrong and Mike Campbell Discuss Global Uncertainty


Posted originally on Mar 22, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Mar 22 2025

Starmer & Macron are Insane


Posted originally on Mar 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

London Tower Bridge

COMMENT FROM LONDON: Macron and Starmer are fucking crazy; Starmer yesterday said, “Russia is scared of our nuclear weapons,” like Russia couldn’t vaporise the entire UK with three missiles ffs, headline this morning “UK could destroy 36 Russian cities with just one of our nuclear submarines,” these people are totally insane…. What the hell is their game ?

B

REPLY: I honestly do not know. They are listening to these Neocons, and they could care less if Europe vanishes as long as they take Russia with them. Putin can detonate a 100mg nuke in the English Channel from a sub, and the tidal wave will wipe out Britain entirely. I have never witnessed such complete incompetence among the pretend leaders of a nation than the crop we have in Europe right now. Of course, Putin has to now prepare for war with NATO, and I can tell you that China and North Korea will join Russia full-on.

I am so tired of the phone calls. I do not know what people expect me to say.

Yes, my son, nuke that city, say three Hail Marys and 5 Our Fathers,

and you will be forgiven?

I did not sign up to be a psychotherapist.

I am not the Oracle of Delphi

The Computer Has NEVER been Wrong. Europe Will Lose!!!

It will NOT Change Its Mind

Mar 21 2025

Why the Fed Cannot Reduce Rates to Offset Tariffs


Posted originally on Mar 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

Interest Rates Percent

President Donald Trump is urging the Fed to cut interest rates to offset the inflation that will be caused by tariffs. “The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy,” Trump wrote. “Do the right thing. April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!!!” Reducing interest rates will NOT offset inflation caused by tariffs because the two variables are not directly related.

Tariffs increase costs due to supply, while interest rates influence demand. When tariffs are imposed, the cost of imported goods rise, increasing prices for consumers and businesses. This cannot be offset by lowering interest rates, as rate cuts stimulate borrowing and investment rather than addressing price increases caused by trade barriers. In fact, lower interest rates can exacerbate the problem by weakening the currency, making imports even more expensive, further fueling inflation.

Historically, tariffs have led to stagflation—rising prices combined with economic stagnation—rather than the demand-driven inflation central banks typically target. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff of the 1930s, for example, severely disrupted global trade and worsened the Great Depression. Similarly, Trump’s trade war with China during his first term did not lead to any economic boom but instead forced businesses to adjust supply chains, raising costs for consumers.

Lowering interest rates in this environment offsets capital flows, decreasing confidence and weakening the purchasing power of the currency. The result is a cycle in which consumers face higher costs while the central bank loses the little control it has to manage inflation. The idea that the Fed could actually control inflation is based on outdated Keynesian economics concepts that were drafted when the US had a balanced budget. Now, most demand comes from the government itself, the largest borrower and creator of debt. This is why Jerome Powell spoke out against Joe Biden for creating the largest spending package in US history and multiplying the public sector. The government will never pay off its debts, and the interest payments on that debt alone have been astronomical.

Relying on rate cuts to counter tariff inflation ignores the root cause of the issue. The real solution lies in reducing trade barriers and not relying on tariffs to increase the demand for domestically made goods.

Mar 21 2025

Transitory Tariff Inflation?


Posted originally on Mar 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Powell Jerome

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expects inflation to be “transitory,” a word reminiscent of America’s situation three years ago when the Fed repeatedly urged the public to underplay inflation as it would improve. Conditions did not improve, as we later learned, and the Fed will have a hard time convincing the markets that this time is different.

“It can be the case that it’s appropriate sometimes to look through inflation, if it’s going to go away quickly, without action by us, if it’s transitory,” Powell said. “That can be the case in the case of tariff inflation. I think that would depend on the tariff inflation moving through fairly quickly and, critically, as well on inflation expectations being well anchored.”

Consumer spending is crucial to the US economy. Retail spending in February increased 0.2% after declining 1.2% in January, according to the Department of Commerce, but fell beneath predictions for a 0.6% monthly increase. Total sales from December 2024 to February 2025 rose 3.7% from the same period one year ago, but growth remains minimal.

People do not spend when confidence is low. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey indicated a 10% decline in consumer sentiment this March compared to February, citing a “high level of uncertainty.”

The National Federation of Retailers stated that February sales had slowed as a direct result of tariff threats. “Consumer spending dipped slightly again in February due to the combination of harsh winter weather and declining consumer confidence driven by tariffs, concerns about rising unemployment and policy uncertainty,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Unease about the probability of inflation and paying higher prices for non-discretionary goods has the value-conscious consumer spending less and saving more. But for the moment, year-over-year gains reflect an economy with strong fundamentals.”

Retail is America’s largest employer in the public sector, adding $5.3 trillion to annual GDP. One in four Americans, 55 million people, are employed through this crucial sector.

Naturally, the cost of living is causing much upheaval as people spend more on less and save what they can. It would be ignorant to say that tariff disputes do not have a direct negative impact on the economy. Powell likely coined a new term, “tariff inflation,” which I expect we will hear more frequently.

Mar 21 2025

Violence Against Tesla Owners is Outrageous


Posted originally on Mar 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Tesla 1

The radical left is extremely dangerous when angered. The intense hatred of Elon Musk has caused a worldwide pandemonium where misplaced raged is directed at Tesla owners. Tesla was once celebrated by the left for championing EV technology, and perhaps favored by those on the left. Now, we are seeing countless daily occurrences of vandalism that has become so prominent that the FBI has launched an investigation.

“Our teams are actively working on the Tesla incidents and the swatting incidents, along with our other responsibilities to keep the Homeland safe,” bureau deputy director Dan Bongino said. Attorney General Pam Bondi said there will be “severe consequences” for those found guilty of violating Tesla vehicles. The government is NOT protecting Elon here as they are desperate to protect the public from the radical left who faced no consequences the last time they attempted to burn cities to the ground.

TeslaBumperSticker

People are routinely spraying Nazi swastikas on Tesla vehicles if not outright setting them on fire. Some have begun placing bumper stickers on their vehicles, saying that they do not support Musk and drive their vehicle in shame. The left believes this should be celebrated. “The Daily Show” audience recently erupted in applause after someone mentioned throwing Molotov cocktails at Cybertrucks to oppose DOGE.

Unlike the average American who cannot afford to simply abandon their second-most expense purchase behind a home, politicians are pretending to virtue signal by giving away their Teslas. The same politicians who cheered Tesla’s climate friendly nature are now subtly urging the people to continue this madness.

Arizona Democratic senator Mark Kelly made a spectacle of abandoning his Tesla. “Every time I get in this car in the last 60 days or so, it reminds me of just how much damage Elon Musk and Donald Trump is doing to our country.” Kelly previously exchanged words with Elon over X regarding his stance on Ukraine and talks about Musk at every opportunity. “Elon Musk kind of turned out to be an asshole, and I don’t want to drive a car built and designed by an asshole,” Kelly said, stating that driving a Tesla is akin to driving a billboard for Musk.

There is a reason why Democrats are not outraged by these attacks on US citizens who are being targeted for no valid reason. I will not list the website, but someone took it upon themselves to create a map that outlines every reported Tesla owner across the US. The cursor of the website is a Molotov cocktail, and the site is urging violence against anyone who does or cannot sell their vehicle immediately.

Innocent people are going to be seriously hurt by these attacks. The right did not go around burning down liquor stores and bars amid the Bud Light scandal. When META was found to be in cahoots with the Democrats, openly interfering in the election, we did not see violence against that company or those with META accounts, for example. Conservatives did not call in bomb threats on Target stores when they were selling trans swimwear for children.

All of this is absolutely outrageous. These same deranged radicals, if employed, unknowingly have 401Ks with Tesla investments. Nearly all of the Teslas on the road were purchased before Elon Musk entered the political arena. Shame on the political leaders who do not condemn these reckless acts of violence against innocent people.

Mar 21 2025

Europe’s Date with Destiny


Posted originally on Mar 21, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

IBEUUS Y Tech 3 19 25

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Thank you for speaking the truth about the timeline of this war with Ukraine. Every news story here in Europe says the same thing. Russia was unprovoked. Never in my entire life have I ever witnessed such outright lies by the press. I do not see the Europeans rising up to overthrow these governments. We are sheep being led to the slaughter. You have forecasted that the euro will no longer exist, and they are rapidly moving to digital currencies, which will be, as you say, for capital control. We will not be able to leave or get our money out. Will you do a special report on Europe? I think it is time to prepare for the future sooner than later.

I am a great admirer of your courage and endurance.

Hans

History Repeat Copy

ANSWER: It gives me no pleasure to live through Socrates’s forecasts as we head into 2032 when even the euro has a Panic Cycle. I have done my best to try to defeat my own computer to no avail. Nobody will listen to me, and they certainly never listen to history, assuming this time is always different. That is just part of the cycle. Those of us who see the patterns are condemned to sit on the sidelines and watch everyone repeat history repeatedly.

Capital_Control to Contain Risk

The euro has broken last year’s low and is still trading below it. We have a very serious Panic Cycle for Europe next year, and they are pushing to cancel the currency’s move to digital ASAP. All they look at is capital controls, which will prevent bank runs and stop capital fleeing. They are trying to control their risk of the collapse of the EU.

1936 German counterfeit British 20 pound

Germany counterfeited the British pound during World War II to undermine their economy. However, with digital currencies, Russia has an EPM bomb. All they have to do is explode one over Europe, and you will fry the electric components and kill the digital euro altogether. This is how all governments work. They are entirely myopic, like climate change or COVID-19. In both cases, they never considered that this would drastically shrink the economy. Only afterward, behind the curtain, do I get the calls. Can you fix it?

Lagarde Christine imf

When she was at the IMF, Christine Lagarde threatened tax havens to turn over all the people with accounts there or remove them from the SWIFT system. She even did that to the Vatican. She was the one who started this insane policy that her buddy, Obama, tried on Russia in 2014, and SWIFT refused to comply. So, they replaced the head of SWIFT in 2019, and he removed Russia from SWIFT, which set BRICS in motion. They are always myopic and never consider the counter-move in chess.

Capital Controls

Now, Lagarde runs the ECB, pushing for the cancellation of the currency and moving to digital. This is about taxes all over again. She hates the rich, other than politicians, and is a pure socialist while prancing around as one of the best-dressed women in Europe in $10,000 designer attire.

Lagarde-10000 Euro outfit

Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, could be charged with money laundering as she transported more than $10,000 worth of goods without declaring them. Lagarde appeared in New York City wearing French designs in a Chanel dress worth €3000, €6000 for her Hermès handbag, and at least €500 for her Christian Louboutin shoes, bringing the total to about €9500, not counting jewelry, of course.

Kerry Climate Czar

This is like Biden’s Climate C zar, John Kerry, flying around in his private jets while telling us to ride a bicycle or walk to work in our 15-minute cities. Then he tells coal miners to get a real job learning how to make solar panels.

EU Report 2025

I am working on a detailed report covering the individual countries and the break up of the EU down the pike.

Mar 20 2025

Ukraine Invests in Western Border – $1.5B Ski Resort


Posted originally on Mar 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

GoroMountainResortUkraine

“THE FIRST ALL-SEASON MOUNTAIN RESORT IN UKRAINE WITH AN INTERNATIONAL FORMAT, A HOLISTIC CONCEPT AND THE BROADEST PALETTE OF IMPRESSIONS, SERVICES AND ATTRACTIONS”

The war in Ukraine has left the nation utterly insolvent, almost entirely reliant on foreign aid. President Zelensky claims he cannot account for billions in aid, urging world leaders to send more rapidly as he must prevent Russia from invading all of Europe. Peace is not an option as “the worst conflict since World War II” rages on with no end in sight. In the meantime, Ukraine spent £1.2 billion ($1.5 billion) to improve its tourism sector by building a massive luxury ski resort.

The luxury resort will span 2,965 acres, feature 25 hotels with 5,5000 rooms, with 41 ski slopes spanning 46.6 miles. The GORO Mountain Resort project was supposed to begin in 2022, but was delayed due to the obvious. OKKO Group, Ukraine’s largest network of gas stations, suddenly changed plans and believes now is the time to begin building the project that will take an estimated 15 years to complete.

As a bonus, GORO Mountain Resort will be located in Lviv, adjacent to Ukraine’s border with Poland. Poland’s defense budget has multiplied as it rushes to fight off Russian aggression at its own border. Donald Tusk has demanded that every male in Poland undergo military training, and he plans to expand the nation’s 200,000 army to one boasting 500,000 troops, which would make it the third-largest military force in NATO behind the United States and Turkey. In November 2024, 55% of Poles said they supported ending the war even if Ukraine was forced to surrender territory. The people do not want war but those at the helm will send them off to die under the guise of protecting national sovereignty.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has threatened neighboring nations like Poland with untold repercussions if they fail to strangle their own agricultural sector by extending Ukraine’s duty-free trade deal. Ukraine has warned that Eastern European nations will suffer the worst of the consequences.

UkraineSkiResortGORO

Yet, the GORO Mountain Resort boasts easy access to those neighboring nations, with direct train travel from “Vienna, Budapest, Kyiv, Dnipro, Odesa, Kharkiv, and more, with the Slavsko station (5 km from the resort).”

Ukraine claims that Russian gas may not pass through its nation as it does not its foe to receive a single euro. Zelensky and others do not care that their allied neighbors like Hungary and Slovakia desperately need the gas line reimplemented in order to provide their nations with essential energy. Perhaps the Ukrainian government could suggest an alternative through a company such as OKKO Group.

It was a known fact that Ukraine was a corrupt nation before the war began and the government rebranded itself as a delicate victim that simply wants the best for its people—its people who have been sent off to die while those in charge refuse to negotiate with Russia. Zelensky has also said that the war will last for many years to come, yet his war-ravaged nation plans to build a billion-dollar resort near its border with Poland to attract tourism. Greed and corruption will be the end of Ukraine. In fact, based on our computer model, there will be no Ukraine in 15 years when this facility is set to open.

Mar 20 2025

Millions of Americans Delinquent on Student Loans


Posted Mar 20, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Hillary Students

Millions of Americans believed that their student loans would be forgiven per the promises made under Biden Administration. Then there was a period of student loan forgiveness that began during the COVID era when countless people found themselves unemployed. Payments have resumed but 9.2 million (43% of federal loan borrowers) have fallen over 90 days behind on payments.

Instead of forgiveness, these delinquencies will remain on these borrower’s credit reports for seven years. Delinquencies show on all three major credit bureaus (TransUnion, Experian, and Equifax) through nationwide credit reporting agencies (NCRAs). The result is an immediate drop in credit scores of up to 250 points.

So over 9 million Americans experienced a massive downturn in their ability to borrow instantaneously. Many may not realize that one missed student loan payment can be counted as up to eight missed payments. Credit scores are calculated and weighted differently depending on where you look. FICO factors in payment history as 35% of one’s overall credit score, while VantageScore factors in missed payments as 40% of creditworthiness.

Student loan payments have not appeared on credit reports for the past five years. Those who are able to meet their loan obligation will see a positive uptick in their score. VantageScore reported that they believe 2.3 million borrowers will see their credit rating fall beneath 600 once these payments reappear on consumer credit files. These people will have an extreme difficulty obtaining new loans.

Thanks to the Clinton Administration repealing Glass Steagall, student loans may not be discharged in the event of bankruptcy. Default and the entire balance is due immediately, with an addition of up to 25% of the loan balance in collection fees. The government may withhold Social Security benefits and tax refunds and will repeal any federal financial aid. Certain professional licenses could be suspended. Defaulting makes it hard for borrowers to access forbearance, deferment, and other repayment options. On top of everything, the government can begin to garnish wages WITHOUT a court order.