Xi Questions Whether the West Will Choose Peace or War


Posted originally on Sep 4, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |

Beijing’s historic military parade brought the new axis powers together in a show of alliance. China’s Xi Jinping hosted Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un during the largest military parade in Chinese history. Xi summarized China’s display of military excellence by questioning whether the West will choose “peace or war.”

“Today, humanity is again faced with the choice of peace or war, dialogue or confrontation, win-win or zero-sum,” Xi told the crowd of more than 50,000 spectators, adding that the Chinese people “firmly stand on the right side of history.” Every nation believes its involvement in conflict will place it on “the right side of history,” but it is the victors who write history.

Putin Xi

“May President Xi and the wonderful people of China have a great and lasting day of celebration. Please give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America,” Trump wrote on Truth Social during the parade. Trump asked China to remember the American troops who fought to expel invaders during World War II. “The big question to be answered is whether or not President Xi of China will mention the massive amount of support and ‘blood’ that The United States of America gave to China in order to help it to secure its FREEDOM from a very unfriendly foreign invader.”

Trump has managed diplomatic ties with Putin and Kim, but his relationship with Xi has never been amicable. Xi said that his nation “is never intimidated by any bullies,” while others believed that Trump’s comments highlighted America’s growing concern of Chinese dominance.

Yuri Ushakov, a top aide to Putin, insisted that the three nations were not conspiring against the US. “I want to say that no one organized any conspiracies, no one was weaving anything, no conspiracies,” Ushakov told Russian journalist Pavel Zarubin, who is close to the Kremlin and has previously interviewed Putin. “Moreover, no one even had that in their minds, none of these three leaders had that,” Ushakov said.

NorthKorea.Russia

Kim accepted Putin’s praise of North Korean troops and promised to honor their pact. “As I said during our previous meeting, if there is anything we can do to help Russia, we will certainly do that, and we will regard this as our fraternal duty. We will do everything in our power to assist Russia.”

China has remained nearly neutral over the past three years as the world became deeply embedded in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Europe is on the precipice of deploying troops to Ukraine and solidifying the start of World War III. This historic military parade was not merely about the 80th anniversary of Japanese troops leaving China after World War II. The massive event was a message to the West that China has firmly aligned with Russia, and if the West does not choose peace, China is willing to join the war.

NATO to Spend $1.5 Trillion in 2025


Posted originally on Sep 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

NATO

NATO is not at war, and yet, the alliance has spent more on funding Ukraine than on any other conflict. The Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2025) determined that the alliance is expected to spend $1.59 trillion USD in 2025, up from $1.5 trillion in 2024.

The United States continues to uphold the alliance financially, with an estimated annual payout of $980 billion. Canada and Europe are predicted to spend a combined $608 billion on NATO expenses or an average of 2.76% of their GDP. Poland spent more per GDP than any European member at 4.48%, followed by Lithuania at 4% and Latvia at 3.73%. Nordic alliances such as Norway and Denmark are expected to spend at least 3% of GDP on NATO this year.

Before the Russia-Ukraine war, members were spending around 1.8% of GDP. That figure shot up to 2.6% in 2024, now sitting at 2.76%, and WILL increase as a result of the 5% of GDP pledge by 2035 that was agreed upon at the June 2025 Hague Summit.

There is an uneven response to the escalating conflict as certain nations are accelerating toward confrontation while others remain wary of becoming involved financially. The concept of creating a unified Europe to end all wars was a moot point. European leaders heed different risks concerning the war. This is not just about weapons and soldiers. It is about capital flow reallocation.

Trillions will be pulled out of productive use and sunk into defense. That creates fiscal strain, inflationary pressure, and accelerates the collapse of social programs. Defense budgets soared across Europe ahead of World Wars I and II. War produces absolutely nothing but inflation and destruction.

Ahead of the First World War, defense expenditures across Europe began to surge in the decade before 1914. Governments shifted capital from social programs into armaments. Britain expanded its navy to counter Germany, while Germany doubled down on land armies. The press sold it as “deterrence.” In reality, it was preparation for the inevitable confrontation that the cycle dictated. This is precisely how they are deflecting current NATO spending, as if the allied members must multiply their contributions to deter Russia.

The same pattern unfolded before World War II. During the Great Depression, military spending in Germany, Italy, and Japan accelerated while their economies stagnated. By 1935, Germany had already abandoned Versailles restrictions, pouring money into weapons while ordinary Germans endured wage controls and shortages. The rhetoric was that this spending would “create jobs,” but it created war.

Rome followed this path as well. By the third century AD, the military consumed the treasury. Coinage was debased, taxes rose, and confidence collapsed. It was the cost of endless frontier wars that eroded the economic foundation of the empire. Once capital fled, the empire was finished. The same capital flow shift is what we see today with trillions diverted from productive enterprise into defense, financed by debt, which will only accelerate inflation and contribute to the sovereign debt crisis.

NATO’s report outlines more than mere budgets, as it shows where each nation is aligned on the Panic Cycle, propelling warfare. Socrates is projecting the rise in volatility into 2026, and the Panic Cycles align. The West has chosen the path of militarization, and that is precisely what history warns precedes systemic breakdown.

Hospitals in France to Prepare for War by March 2026


Posted Sep 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Lose the War

France’s Ministry of Health has urged all hospitals to prepare for war by March 2026. President Emmanuel Macron repeatedly stated that he is ready to deploy French troops to Ukraine’s front lines, and now, the entire nation must prepare for the inevitable.

Hospitals throughout the nation have been urged to prepare for a “major military engagement” in Europe, according to a leaked memo first published by Le Canard Enchaîné. The memo, dated July 18, 2025, instructs hospitals to brief staff on “wartime constraints.” Staff must learn how to survive the psychological and physical pressures of wartime trauma.

Plans are in the works to accommodate patients returning from combat zones, with emergency centers slated to open near airports and train stations to “enable the rerouting of foreign soldiers to their home country.”

The Ministry of Health is preparing for a dire situation—hospitals should expect to receive between 10,000 and 50,000 wounded personnel over a 10 to 180-day window, depending on France’s involvement in the war.

Health Minister Catherine Vautrin attempted to downplay the leaked memo, but did not deny its existence. “Hospitals are always preparing – for epidemics, for surges. It’s normal for a country to anticipate crises and their consequences,” she claimed. Yet, the language used in the letter clearly details that hospitals must prepare for wounded soldiers arriving from a foreign battleground.

Socrates has indicated a shift from localized conflict to widespread warfare by 2026. I’ve warned all who have asked to high-tail it out of Europe before it is too late because once all hell breaks loose, this conflict will spread like a contagion that engulfs the entire continent.

US Manufacturing Contracts for Sixth Consecutive Month


Posted originally on Sep 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

manufacturing man 1

America cannot find its footing in manufacturing. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.7 in August 2025, marking the sixth consecutive month of contraction. Although the figure has improved from July’s reading of 48, there is ongoing confirmation that capital is bleeding out of US manufacturing.

New orders did rise to 51.4, a stark uptick from July’s reading of 47.1, but production fell to 47.8 in August from 51.4 in July. “In August, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted at a slightly slower rate, with new orders growth the biggest factor in the 0.7-percentage point gain of the Manufacturing PMI,” said Susan Spence, chair of the ISM’s survey committee. “However, since production contracted at a rate nearly equal to the expansion in new orders, the Manufacturing PMI increase was nominal.”

The issue is far deeper than a capital fleeing uncertainty from tariffs, as this issue has been ongoing. In fact, one of Trump’s motives for implementing tariffs was to boost domestic manufacturing. Trump openly stated that he wanted companies to move manufacturing to the US to avoid tariffs. This was intended to promote domestic trade as companies will seek to avoid levies. We did see a temporary uptick in manufacturing demand when these tariffs were announced but it was not enough to sustain the sector. Although companies began to invest in the US, overall trade remained volatile. There were supply chain issues by May, and come September, the US is still at a standstill regarding tariffs. Nations have even halted postal shipments to the US entirely as they cannot process the ongoing tariff changes.

Again, US manufacturing was in a dire situation before Trump entered the office. The Inflation Reduction Act promised to fund the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which was intended to expand American manufacturing, but regulation and an emphasis on clean energy initiatives drove business away. The Biden Administration had promised to add 1 million manufacturing jobs to the US but failed miserably.

This has nothing to do with America being uncompetitive. The American worker is among the most productive in the world. But if you add 30–40% in taxes and compliance costs on top of wages, while competitors in Asia operate under far leaner systems, capital naturally migrates to where it will be treated best.

Manufacturing in the United States has been in decline for decades due to systemic policy failures. The politicians will blame China and tariffs for the downturn. The contraction we see today is merely the continuation of a decades-long trend set in motion by shortsighted policies.

Interview: The Cold Reality: Peace With Russia Will NEVER Happen


Posted originally on Sep 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

The Cycle of War & Revolution


Posted originally on Sep 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

War Cycle 2014

QUESTION #1: Hi Martin,

Since the international war array started picking up in 2022 but peaks in 2026 with a panic cycle, do we in fact expect a serious deflagration potentially nuclear but very short lived and closing by 2027 since it’s the peak? Would that mean a very swift demise of European stupid leaders and we’re done for the following few years until the US and China want to face off?

Best,
PH

QUESTION #2: Marty, I was at your 2011 Philadelphia conference when you said that war would start in 2014 and that ended up with the Ukraine Revolution and Kiev attacking the Donbas, starting the Civil War. I believe you said this will build in intensity, similar to the ECM going into 2028. Do you have any updates on that?

Roger

2022 Intl War Index
Civil Unrest 2023

ANSWER: Keep in mind that just as the Economic Confidence Model is NOT in the computer arrays, neither is the War Cycle. The array is ENTIRELY the product of Socrates with ZERO human interference. Then there are two primary databases. One is only wars between nations, and the other is purely domestic civil unrest that can emerge as revolutions, as in the cases of the American Revolution, the US Civil War, the French Revolution, the 1848 European Revolutions, the 1917 Russian Revolution, and the revolutions in Asia.

Under NO circumstances do I ever interfere with the cyclical forecasts of Socrates. That would defeat my own objective. Sociales is reliable BECAUSE it is NOT biased. Being human means we have some predetermined hardwiring toward something. I tend to be personally in favor of freedom and against controlling government actions. I cannot allow that to color my judgment, so the best way is for me to look at Socrates, which will enable me to do the timing forecasts.

935 ECM 2020 2028
ECM Economic Confidence Model 8.6 Year Panics

Here are two separate models. The ECM was derived from a list of panics. That is what makes this so accurate worldwide compared to Benner or Kondratieff, which were based on the economic data of the 19th century, when the dominant sector was commodities – agriculture. Because this was a list of PANICS, the sector differed, but the reaction was the same. As I have said, the 1960s taught me that panics occurred in stocks, collectibles, real estate, and gold, and eventually led to the collapse of the Bretton Woods system by 1971. This made sense to me, for what I witnessed was that the instrument did not matter. The common denominator was the human response.

1929 Wave Hitler on Pi

That is what the ECM is all about and why it has been accurate. In 1932, not only did we see political change with Hitler coming to power precisely on the Pi Target, but FDR was also elected in the same year. Both sought a change in the economic trend that had been in motion—the Great Depression. Their motives may have been different, but the people responded the same, seeking political change.

Japan’s economy was hit hard by the global Depression, exacerbating social unrest and militarist sentiments. In May 1932, after the assassination of Prime Minister Tsuyoshi Inukai by naval officers amid economic and political instability, Admiral Makoto Saito was appointed as a compromise leader to stabilize the government. The Depression’s impact strengthened militarist factions, influencing Japan’s shift toward aggressive expansionism. Prime Minister Makoto Saito came to power in May 1932.  In September 1932, Saito’s government signed the Manchukuo Protocol, formally recognizing the Japanese puppet state of Manchukuo in Manchuria. This followed the Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1931 (the Mukden Incident), which had been orchestrated by the Imperial Japanese Army without government approval.

Wheat 1919 1932 14 Year Decline

Here, we see a significant political change in 1932, which coincided with the economic collapse and decline in commodities, as well as the US stock market. The reason behind each leader may be different, but the common threat is political change.

Cycle War 3 Waves 1964 2039

Separate from Socrates, the War Cycle builds in intensity as does the ECM. Here, the third wave, since the low of 1964 and the Tonkin Gulf Resolution of August 7th that year, brings us to a peak in 2028. When we look at the two forecasts of Socrates for 2026 for International War and 2028/2029 for Civil Unrest, and then look at this in the contaxt of the major Sixth Wave projecting to 2032 with the likelihood of the fall of our Republican forms of government worldwide, it appears the the World War III is just a prelude to the civil unrest that will ultimately bring down governments.

Cycle_of_War Revolution 2025

I am trying to merge these models into a coherent book that I hope will be out for the WEC in November. This is not an easy project. I am addressing the typical criticisms of those who refuse to believe in cycles and look at events as random and unpredictable. They are like a horse with blinders on pulling a carriage, unable to see anything other than what is directly in front of their nose. This will be the 40th Anniversary of our World Economic Conference. I seriously doubt I will make it to the 50th. So, it is time to pass on what I have learned before Scotty beams me up.

Teaching ECM

Categories:Wa

Interview: War and the Unseen Factors Driving Markets


Posted originally on Aug 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Interview: Should Putin NUKE Ukraine?


Posted Aug 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Categories: Armstrong in t

Interview: War and the Unseen Factors Driving Markets


Posted originally on Aug 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

Interview: Should Putin NUKE Ukraine?


Posted originally on Aug 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |  

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