Week in Review: Bipartisan Populists Unite Against War in Syria, China Brokers Historic Iran/Saudi Arabia Peace, & More, w/ Michael Tracey | SYSTEM UPDATE #53


By Glenn Greenwald Posted originally on Rumble on: March 8, 2023 at 7:01 pm EST

Hoards -Even Gold


Armstrong Economics Blog/Hoards Re-Posted Mar 10, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

In times of economic distress, people will hoard their wealth. This is as true in ancient times as it is in modern times. I was called in about a hoard of gold – one thousand $20 St Gaudians gold coins all dated 1924 – uncirculated. As you see, I have a reputation for buying hoards as well as funding major archaeological digs. This was a hoard of US$20 gold coins. So I took the lot. As for those who say I hate gold, no, I have always loved the $20 st Gaudens.

Obviously, this was a stash. It was the year of a Presidential election and in 1925, Calvin Coolidge was the first President to have his inauguration broadcasted on radio. In 1921 the Chinese Communist movement began and in 1924 Stalin came to power after poisoning Lenin and his wife. The flight from Russia began in 1917, but it escalated by 1919. It is hard to say why this hoard was stashed away. But they are all dated 1924 and may have been connected to the upheaval in Russia. By the end of 1919, it was clear to almost everyone that the Bolsheviks had won the Civil War. The White armies were defeated on all fronts: Siberia, the Russian North, and Petrograd (as St Petersburg was then called).  Pravda on Aug. 31, 1918:

“Our cities must be mercilessly cleansed of the bourgeois rot. All these gentlemen will be put on file, and those who pose a danger to the revolutionary class will be destroyed … Henceforth, the hymn of the working class will be a song of hatred and revenge! ”

It was the White Russians who fled. It was estimated that at least 2 million fled Russia at the time. That was about 2%-3% of the surviving population by 1919. Given the date of this hoard and the condition, they were tucked away and never saw circulation. They may have been related to the turmoil in Russia.

A number of people have asked if I could put together sets of the 12 Caesars because I had mentioned I thought that could be done for half the price of the set being offered elsewhere. I am trying to get a small hoard of Caligula denarii. They are very difficult to find. I believe because he was so hated,  they may have just melted down his coinage.

It all depends on quality. I have purchased a small hoard of Julius Caesar coinage. I will try to see If I get these Caligula denarii. If I do, I will try to see if I can put together some sets with much more realistic prices.

I have purchased a hoard of late Constantine bronze. They are very reasonable.

I have purchased an early hoard of Gallic coinage of Postumus which is silver. I also have purchased a hoard of Victorinus which are bronze. This is the period of both the split in the Roman Empire as well as the collapse of the monetary system.

Others have asked if I can put together a progression of the coinage showing the debasement. I will try. Here is a photo showing the stark difference between the beginning of the region of Gallienus (253-268AD) and its end.

The Debt Crisis – What Really Falls to Dust?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis Re-Posted Mar 9, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: The sales pitch seems to be that there is this $2 quadrillion in global debt that overhangs everything. Paper assets, therefore, will all implode!  They seem to be saying that everything has risen due to this debt bubble and it was all created with Zero interest rates. Now that they are going up, the debt bubble will burst and everything will decline. The story seems to be that this decades-long Boom Bust cycle was created over and over by the Federal Reserve. 

This seems to be like you have said, they try to reduce everything to a single cause and effect.

What really happens?

PCJ

ANSWER: These people seem to keep preaching the same story but have no historical understanding whatsoever of how the monetary system has ever worked. Their focus on the Federal Reserve shows that they are not looking at the world economy and they do not even comprehend how bad things really are outside the United States.  They do not comprehend what is an interest rate. It is the compensation to a lender for his anticipation of inflation plus a profit. If I think the dollar will decline by 50%, why would I lend you dollars for a year if when you pay me back it buys half of what it did when I lent it to you?

Debt can be a performing asset. I advised many of the Takeover Boys during the 1980s. We would borrow in one currency to buy the asset in another using the computer to distinguish the long-term trends. I would not recommend that to someone just operating on a gut feeling.

We were also advising on real values, which Hollywood distorted and based the movie Wall Street with Michael Douglas and his famous speech on greed. What they did not really understand was that after a Public Wave that peaked in 1981, stocks were suppressed and the full-faith in government created the broadly supported bond market.  Hence – bonds were conservative and stocks were risky. There were two aspects that were behind the entire Takeover Boom.

First, I was showing these charts and how in terms of book value, the Dow Jones bottomed in 1977. It was obvious that if you could buy a company, sell its assets, and double or triple your money, then the market was obviously not overpriced. We had forecast that the Dow was undervalued and that it would rise from the 1982 low of 769.98 and test the 2500 level in two years in 1985. Indeed, it reached 2695.47 by September 1987. We also projected that by the next decade, the Dow would test 6,000 on its next rally.

Even the press in Japan was shocked. We were also projected that Crude would fall below $10 in 1998. Indeed, that forecast was covered by Mark Pitman at Bloomberg News. It bottomed at $10.65 in 1998. In gold would forecast that it would drop to test $250 by 1999 completing a 19-year cycle low. Then gold would rally to test 1,000. Gold reached the $1,000 level by 2008. The Japanese press thought those forecasts were wild, to say the least.

The SECOND aspect of our advice to the takeover boys of the ’80s was something the press NEVER understood. We would advise borrowing in one currency for an asset in another. We were able to turn debt into a performing asset. We would make 20-40% profit on the currency alone. Often, the press would just look at the debt and not understand what we were even doing.

Most of this reasoning stems from Sir Tomas Gresham’s observations when he represented England at the Amsterdam exchange during the reign of Henry VI’s reign and debasement. As Henry debased the silver coinage as was taking place in Spain, the more they debased the coinage, the higher the inflation took place. His observation that bad money drives out the good has been grossly misunderstood. When I was growing up, they took the silver out of the coinage in 1965.  People were culling out the silver showing that the debased new coinage of 1965 drove out of circulation the old silver coinage. The same thing has taken place with the copper pennings.

Because people hoard old coinage, the money supply shrinks. That then forces the government to issue far more debased coinage to compensate for the coinage that has been withdrawn from hoarding. Consequently, inflation unfolds for all tangible assets to rise in value as expressed in the newly debased coinage.

What these people always try to sell is the same old scenario that they cannot point to a single instance in history where everything collapses to dust but only gold survives. Such periods will typically result in revolution. When Caesar crossed the Rubicon, that was also all bout a debt crisis.

You must also understand that interest rates will be at their LOWEST internationally in the core economy of the Financial Capital of the World – which is the USA right now. The further you move from the center, the higher the interest rate will be. Hence, I have warned that the United States will be the LAST to fall – never the first. This is not based upon my opinion, this is simply historical fact.

We have interest rates back to 3000 BC and have studied the impact of such convulsions in economic history. As for the Debt Crisis that forced Caesar to cross the Rubicon, I suggest you read Anatomy of a Debt Crisis that appears, only Julius Caesar ever understood. 

The Bottom Line is very simple. There is just no such period as people describe where everything turns to dust and only gold survives. Even if that were true, they what good would the gold do if everything else is worth ZERO? Gold would have also ZERO value since nothing would have value.

The real issue is that as government defaults unfold, tangible assets will rise in value for the amount of money in debt always dwarfs that in even the stock market. We are in a Sovereign Debt Crisis and that is very different from a private debt crisis.

Tucker Carlson Defends Himself Against DC Attacks – “We are learning who the liars are”…


Posted originally on the CTH on March 9, 2023 | Sundance

Tucker Carlson has been under blistering attacks from the administrative state in Washington DC, the professional media, Democrats and Republicans in congress as well as the agencies of the FBI, DHS and DOJ.  {Direct Rumble Link Here}

Mr. Carlson responded again tonight to the vitriol from the apparatus of government for his airing of the January 6th CCTV tapes and the fallout from the sunlight.  Extensive segment as aired – WATCH:


Supreme Court Refused to Hear the Brunson Case As Expected


Armstrong Economics Blog/Rule of Law Re-Posted Feb 22, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty, you understand markets and the legal system. You were right again. The Supreme Court rejected the Brunson case.

KQ

REPLY: As I wrote before, this was an interesting argument, but it will be even more

“earth-shattering if the Supreme Court actually takes the case and rules on the validity of taking an oath of office.”

How can you support, and defend, the Constitution against all enemies, foreign and domestic if you refuse to even investigate the claim?

US Supreme Court

Here is the real monumental problem. Does the Supreme Court act constitutionally or has it denied citizens the right to be heard as declared by the Constitution itself? This is why they fight to stack the Supreme Court because the law is just not the law. The real issue is the Judiciary Act of 1925 and the court itself.

I specialized, not just in history, but also in the rise and fall of nations. Historically, a collapse in the rule of law is a key element in the fall of nations. I studied law intensely and some lawyers will often call me on constitutional questions. Why? When you go to law school, you spend very little time on the Constitution. The bulk of law concerns statutory law which is everything written and passed by Congress from civil rights to Obamacare. Very few cases end up challenging the constitutionality of a statute. Instead, they merely challenge the unconstitutional acts of government agents such as police and politicians.

The Supreme Court held that the Constitution is negative, meaning it is a restraint upon government, in Harris v. McRae, 448 U.S. 297 (1980). That means citizens cannot demand that government create any social program for there is no such Marxist component to the Constitution that people assume exists. There is no government obligation to pay for an abortion or a heart transplant.

I am going to make a statement here I have made to Constitutional lawyers that make their eyes pop out. The Supreme Court has no Constitutional right or permission to exercise “discretion” to hear a case. They must hear every case presented to them for that is dictated by the Constitution and cannot be circumvented by a statute written by Congress or by its own rule-making practice. No statute or rule can negate the constitution as defined by the Supremacy Clause (Article VI, Paragraph 2).

The Supreme Court receives approximately 7,000-8,000 petitions for a writ of certiorari each term (year). The court grants and hears oral arguments in about 80 cases per year in a country of over 300 million. That is outrageous and this practice denies the people the constitutional guarantee of a tripartite government (3 branches) with each branch acting as a check and balance against the others. Let’s review what the structure of government crafted by the Founding Fathers created.

Marshall John Chief Justice - 1

Chief Justice Marshall was held in the landmark case Marbury v Madison, 5 US 137 (1 Cranch) (1803) in which he declared the role of the Judiciary branch. “It is emphatically the province and duty of the judicial department to say what the law is.” When the nation began, the Supreme Court justices rode on “circuits.” Each justice heard cases in their assigned circuits around the country for there were no circuit courts with federal judges. Article III, Section I, of the Constitution expressly states:

“The judicial power of the United States, shall be vested in one Supreme Court, and in such inferior courts as the Congress may from time to time ordain and establish.” 

The Constitution guaranteed the Supreme Court. It gave the option to Congress to create inferior federal courts around the country, but this was by no means mandatory. The implications of this are quite profound for it means that Congress can close all the federal inferior district and appellate courts, but it cannot close the Supreme Court. The tripartite structure of government requires the Supreme Court – not inferior courts. Justice Reynolds explained this succinctly:

“The accepted doctrine is that the lower federal courts were created by the acts of Congress and their powers and duties depend upon the acts which called them into existence, or subsequent ones which extend or limit.”

Gillis v California, 293 US 52, 66 (1934)

Your constitutional right to be heard is being DENIED. That right is being circumvented by demanding you go to a district court judge, then appeal to that circuit court, and then apply to be heard as one of the 7,000+ petitions when they only accept 80. What if a child could not speak to his or her father and would only communicate with them through some nanny? Is there a relationship bond between the father and the child? Of course not.

Inferior courts are under no obligation to apply even a uniform legal code. Each has its own rules and precedents that are unique to each circuit. The law as practiced in New York is different than as practiced in California, Texas, or Florida. It is not all the same! There is no guarantee of EQUAL PROTECTION OF THE LAW when these circuit courts are free to do as they like. The media never writes about this and does not find it strange that we have no unified rule of law in the United States. You have to get to the Supreme Court and they are supposed to take such cases to establish the law nationally when it differs among the circuits.

Chief Justice Marshall also held in 1821 a very important decision holding:

“If the constitution does not confer on the court, or on the federal judiciary, the power sought to be exercised, it is in vain that the act of Congress purports to confer it…” 

Cohen v Virginia, 19 US 264 (6 Wheat) (1821) id/324

Congress reduced the power of the Supreme Court by eliminating the constitutional status of the court by enabling them to decide to hear cases at their “discretion,” but that is totally unconstitutional for no statute can amend the Constitution. Any statute or rule created by Congress cannot circumvent the Constitution – PERIOD!

The Constitution ONLY created the Supreme Court. Congress created the statutory inferior court which can be closed at any time because they were NOT created by the Constitution. Therefore, it is blatantly UNCONSTITUTIONAL for the Judiciary Act of 1925 to reduce the Supreme Court to one of discretion. That is a constructive amendment to the constitution which in itself is an act of outright rebellion.

West’s Duplicity – Biden’s Surprise Visit Before Putin’s Speech


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Feb 21, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Biden made a surprise visit to Ukraine one day ahead of Putin’s National Address scheduled for February 21st. Biden had the audacity to put out the West’s constant propaganda:

“One year later, Kyiv stands. And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands,” he declared. “The Americans stand with you and the world stands with you.”

Putin is elected the head of Russia by its Parliament the same system that takes place in Britain, the EU, Canada, and every country with a Parliamentary system. Only the United States is where the head of state stands for election by the people. This nonsense that Ukraine stands for democracy against Russia is just total outright lies. This only demonstrates that we cannot trust a single word from governments in such times. As they say, truth is the first casualty in war.

Had the West simply been honest and honored what they negotiated that the Donbas under the Minsk Agreement was to be allowed to vote on their own separatist movement. All the deaths in Ukraine and their blood are on the hands of the West. This war would have NEVER taken place if the Minsk Agreement was honored.

Blinken has made it clear that the US will NEVER accept the Minsk Agreement and it was indeed only to buy time for a war they wanted from the start. The Biden Administration changed the arrangement with Ukraine in 2021 altering all previous agreements since 2008. This is a Neocon’s dream come true – a direct confrontation with Russia. He outright said that there shall be no peace by returning any land to allow the Russians of the Donbas to live in peace free of Ukrainian domination.

“If we do that, we will open a Pandora’s box around the world, and every would-be aggressor will conclude that, ‘If Russia got away with it, we can get away with it,’” Blinken said. “And that’s not in anyone’s interest, because it’s a recipe for a world of conflict.”

This illustrates the duplicity of the West and the desire for World War III. These are the people who are cheering the destruction of our future all for a strip of land that has been occupied by Russians for centuries.

Even China has come out and bluntly stated: “We would like a political solution to provide a peaceful and sustainable framework to Europe.” The US refuses to seek peace on any reasonable terms whatsoever. The arrogance of the United States is just astounding. They have told China not to aid Russia. As Fox News reported, China is furious after the US warns against arming Russia: “The US is in no position to tell China what to do.”

In all my years of dealing with governments, NEVER have I ever even once witnessed such stupidity and arrogance on the part of any government. This Biden Administration seems to be going out of its way to piss off just about everyone in the world to create World War III. This is just unimaginable. They seem to want to “shrink” the world’s population by 50% with war to get their pat on the back from Gates, Rockefeller Foundation, and Schwab. When you say it is your way or no way, that is not how you negotiate anything.

History will remember the Biden Administration with contempt as the Hitler or Napoleon of the 21st Century.

Start Worrying – Biden Says ‘The US and West Was Not Plotting to Attack Russia’


Posted originally on the CTH on February 21, 2023 | Sundance

Speaking today in Poland, amid carefully managed stage theatrics, lighting and dramatic entrance for emphasis, Joe Biden said:

…”I speak once more to the people of Russia.  The United States and the nations of Europe do not seek to control or destroy Russia.  The West was not planning to attack Russia as Putin said today, and millions of Russian citizens who only want to live in peace with their neighbors are not the enemy”…

Given the reality that every foreign policy statement from the people around Joe Biden carries the exact opposite in both intent and outcome, we should now prepare for the Biden administration, CIA and U.S. State Department to begin open offensive military action directly targeting Russia.  Yes, this statement means it is time to start worrying.

.

Interview: NATO military defeat to destabilize the dollar?


Click here to wWatch Martin Armstrong’s latest interview, “NATO military defeat to destabilize the dollar?” with Mike Adams.

What is Really the Foundation of Money?


Armstrong Economics Blog/America’s Economic History Re-Posted Feb 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Martin,
After several years of reading your blog, I have concluded that Socrates’ prognostications appear to be spot on. I also share your assertion that a study of history supplies an insight into future events due to the constancy of “human nature.” Where we appear to part ways is in the definition of “money.”

In the early 20th century J. P. Morgan said: “Gold is money; everything else [used as currency] is credit.” Hence, paper money, (and digital entries in an electronic ledger) when issued by a monopolist i.e. government, inevitably descends to its intrinsic value: zero.

AN

ANSWER: Human society has recorded our monetary history and you should not confuse irresponsible government with what is really money. I have a great deal of Respect for J.P. Morgan. If you asked the question of what is money in a Babylonian, it would be a silver shekel. Even the Bible spoke of weighing the silver and how Judas sold out Christ for a handful of silver coins. To a Greek from Anatolya (Turkey), he would have said it is a stater. To an Athenian, he would say a drachma. A Roman would have replied a denarius. But when Rome was first forming, money had been cattle which became thereafter bronze. Indeed, if you had asked before all of them, a Minoan, would have it was bronze. Money has been many things including sea shells, and cattle.

A Spanish during the 15th century would have said it was a one-ounce silver reale. The German would have said no – it’s the silver thaler. The British would disagree and said it was the pound sterling (.925 silver). The Americans, not wanting to be subservient to England, adopted the dollar, which was a version of the German thaler. In Asia, it was the cash, then the yen.

Saint Patrick in the 5th Century AD upon his arrival in Ireland, found that MONEY was expressed in human slave girls. He wrote in his Confession, “I think that I have given away to them no less than the price of fifteen humans.” This passage shows something very important. First, MONEY is not defined as the Medium of Exchange exclusively. It also serves the purpose of a Unit of Account. In fact, this becomes the true function of MONEY even more so than what it is. MONEY is a language of value.

Many of the major bankers, kings, and heads of companies were ancient coin collectors including President Teddy Roosevelt. JP Morgan understood banking and credit – but not money. This was a Syracuse Dekadrachm of Dionysios I (405-367BC) was one of the coins from his collection that was eventually sold by the coin firm Stacks of New York in September 1983.  You can download that catalog. People like Josiah K. Lilly Jr. and Paul A. Straub donated their collections to the Smithsonian.

Teddy Roosevelt (1858-1919) loved the high relief of ancient Greek coins. When Teddy Roosevelt became president on September 14, 1901 – March 4, 1909, he commissioned the artist Augustus Saint-Gaudens (1848 –1907)  to redesign the $20 gold coin and made it high relief as the ancient coins had been struck. The machines could not handle the high relief for the dies would break and they lacked the power of an individual stamping out coins. Thus, the new $20 gold coins had to be reduced in their relief. Nevertheless, we have ancient coins to thank for the limitation on the confiscation of gold in 1934. It was that very reason that his cousin FDR exempted ancient gold coins from confiscation when FDR was himself a stamp collector instead.

I would say the problem here is the definition of money and what predates coinage was the development of a weight standard to enable trade. That invention of weighing technology appears to emerge around 3100 to 3000 BC. This was the most significant turning point in monetary history for it marked the beginning of economic history itself.

It was private merchants during the Bronze Age that created the weight systems. Trade took place through informal networks, but it was clearly Mesopotamian merchants who established a standardized system of weights that later spread across the Western region and into Europe. This innovation enabled international trade across the continent. By the second millennium BC, merchants could potentially trade anywhere in Western Eurasia simply by knowing the conversion factors of a multitude of local weight units. What was emerging was the formation of weight systems that was the foundation for the booming commercial interaction of the Bronze Age world.

From the very beginning, MONEY has been a commodity – nothing more. It simply began a barter. I will give you these carrots for potatoes.  When the Lydian King Kroisos (561-546BC) created the first bimetal monetary system, a gold stater was about 10.71 grams and the silver-gold ratio was 13.33:1 because gold was common in the Turkey. The inflation caused by war led to a gold weight reduction to 8.71 grams.  Fiscal mismanagement existed from the very beginning. This would have been no different than FDR revaluing gold in 1934 from $20.67 to $35 per ounce.

There were competing standards from the very beginning. The Lydian/ Milesian standard began with an electrum stater at 14.2 grams. The stater as minted under the Euboic Standard was 17.2 grams of electrum. There was the Phokaic Standard placing the electrum stater at 16.1 grams. Obviously, foreign exchange dealers became necessary for international trade among the city states.

I can find no evidence of a single standard that dominates the nations at this time. By 530BC, the invention of coins spreads to Greece and now the first city state begins to strike a silver stater at 12.6 grams – the Isle of Aigina. In Greece, silver was common and gold was rare.

In Athens they established the Attic Standard based on a silver didrachm (2 drachms) of 8.6 grams, but as inflation emerged, the standard coin became the tetradrachms (4 drachms) at 17.2 grams. So you can see there may have been gold and silver used as MONEY, but by no means was there a unified standard agreement as to weight. In Corinth, they set their stater at 8.5 grams and divided it into three drachms. Standardization comes only with conquest as was the case with Napoleon. Athens dominated many city states and in 449BC issued its famous enigmatic “Coinage Decree” promulgated by Perikles that restricted other city states from striking coins making their coins a single currency. Perhaps it was just a power play. On the other hand, it was most likely just the profit earned over the raw metal cost known as seigniorage. In other words, the coins once minted purchased more in goods than the raw metal.

China did not use gold. They had a silver standard. The West had to create silver trade dollars set to their weight standard, which was heavier than the standard United States silver dollar. There have been different monetary systems throughout world history. They have not all been based on precious metals. What it always boils down to is the capacity of the people to produce. There are plenty of places with natural resources and the countries are barely even 3rd world. China, German, and Japan rose from the ashes without gold. Their people produced and they rose to the top of the list of economies despite others having gold.

The bottom line has always been that the wealth of a nation is nothing more than they total productivity of its people.

JFK, Nixon & Trump


Armstrong Economics Blog/Conspiracy Re-Posted Feb 16, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Despite the hatred that many pour all over Trump, they really should stop and think for a moment, that they have been subjected to brainwashing. I have stated before that I was invited to a dinner in March of 2020 at Mara largo where I was actually impressed by then-President Trump. He said he wanted to bring the troops home from Afghanistan because he was sick and tired of having to write letters to the parents of solider’s killed over there. He bluntly stated that he had no idea why were there. They were fighting over borders for 1,000 years. “What difference will we make?”

There is a common thread between JFK, Richard Nixon, and Donald Trump – all three stood against the Deep State. The first was assassinated, the second was set up with CIA operatives getting “caught” breaking ton the Watergate building, and the third was probably removed from office by rigged elections and now desperately trying to accuse him of anything to prevent him from running against in 2024.

John Bolton was against withdrawing troops from Afghanistan. Bolton has been a hardnosed Neocon and then lied to the people not disclosing that Trump had a whole team to figure out how to exit Afghanistan that Biden dismissed and then claimed the same end result would have happened under Donald Trump. I really do not know how these people can look at themselves in the mirror.

JFK and Trump were both against war. Both were conveniently removed from office. In the case of Kennedy, they put forth Oswald and linked him to Russia, but then conveniently had him assassinated to prevent any trial when today everyone knows that the CIA was behind it. The recent tapes have revealed that Richard Nixon bluntly said to the head of the CIA, I know who killed John. The CIA used Watergate to discredit Nixon and drive him from office also because he wanted to end the Vietnam War and understood the CIA’s role.

Then Trump wanted to exist in Afghanistan. But Iran shot down an unmanned drone and Bolton wanted Trump to launch an attack on Iran. Trump refused to retaliate for an unmanned drone. The CIA asked Trump to extend the deadline for their release of the Kenndy assassination files until after the election. He agreed, and they knew Trump would lose the election. Biden then granted them the right to withhold the most critical files that expose the real source – the CIA.

The Deep Stated wanted to kill Americans and blame Cuba to justify an invasion. Kennedy rejected that proposal. This, he had to go. How dare he think he can tell the Deep State what to do!

All three presidents posed a serious threat to the Deep State. Forget the hatred of Trump that they have drummed into the heads of so many. Open your eyes. This is biggest that Trump and your hatred blinds you to what is really going on.