The Political Storm on the Horizon


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Dec 30, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Could an individual state finish the wall started by the previous administration?
It’s painfully obvious Washington has its own agenda. And at this time, I see no point in even lobbying our federal government to do anything in our border towns/states. Is it legal to have our individual states finish what was started? I know I’m not alone in my concerns and would gladly contribute to a “wall fund”, or something of the sort. Maybe things are so corrupted it would be pointless?

REPLY: Yes, it is the state’s border. Knowing the atmosphere on Capitol Hill, it has simply become war and it has nothing to do with the benefit of the nation. I was impressed by the words of Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema who courageously announced that she was leaving the Democratic Party to register as an independent. It was her words that rang true. She stated that she was abandoning the Democratic Party and turning her back on the “broken partisan system in Washington” that prioritizes denying the opposition party a win rather than “delivering for all Americans.

This is the very reason why the United States will collapse. There is no longer any sense of guiding the nation for the benefit of all the people. This has turned into a hate game. Neither side will dare to agree that ANYTHING the other side did was just, fair, or in the best interest of the whole. It is just partisan war and in the process, they are destroying the core of the United States and our once culture of freedom that was admired and inspired by the world.

I can confirm that when the US invaded Iraq on the nonsense of weapons of mass destruction, the pro-Americans in Russia lost ground. They were indeed pushing to join NATO and enter the world economy for the benefit of all the Russian people. But that invasion armed the Neocons and they pointed to that invasion that America was imperialistic and was seeking to control the entire world. It also lowered the esteem of America in the eyes of many in China. Ukraine has merely reconfirmed that view.

Politics has degenerated into a very dark era. If history repeats itself, there will be no other choice but to move toward separatism. We will no longer be able to live in peace together because that is not acceptable anymore. All this nonsense of what is your pronoun and men can have babies with a sex change is dividing the country into groups. Once you do that, you do not benefit the right of those people, you cast them as the new enemy of the state just as Hitler did with the Jews. The end is near for the United States. A house as divided as we have become CANNOT stand. That was the view of Lincoln to justify the Civil War.

Treasury Dept Makes Rule Determination Undermining Premise of EV Tax Credits Within Inflation Reduction Act


Posted originally on the CTH on December 29, 2022 

Treasury Dept Makes Rule Determination Undermining Premise of EV Tax Credits Within Inflation Reduction Act

December 29, 2022 | sundance | 132 Comments

We accept the named legislation “Inflation Reduction Act” (IRA) is a legislative misnomer intended to obfuscate the true construct of the bill.  The IRA was factually the ‘green new deal’ program packaged under the guise of an ‘inflation reduction’ premise.  However, in order to discuss the outcome of the content we have to play the game of pretending around the purpose of the legislation.

Within the IRA there was a $7,500 tax credit for American made Electric Vehicles.  The intent of the legislation was to provide incentives for U.S. consumers to purchase ‘sustainable’ and environmentally friendly electric cars, trucks, SUV’s etc made in America.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) scored the bill with this legislative intent in mind.   However, the Treasury Department is now taking apart the granular details of the legislation in order to qualify foreign made vehicles for the $7,500 credit. The rules interpretation from the Treasury Dept essentially negates the CBO score, and the outcome is going to be much more expensive than initially stated.

Because the $7,500 comes in the form of a tax credit, the IRS (Treasury) is the institution making the determinations for qualification.  Treasury is changing the qualifications to permit basically any EV to qualify, by parsing a difference between a leased vehicle and a purchased vehicle.  Additionally, Treasury is changing the battery sourcing aspect by qualifying essentially any trade agreement as a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), saying the term Free Trade Agreement was undefined in the legislation.

As an outcome & simply cutting to the chase, EV batteries from just about anywhere, inside EV vehicles from basically anywhere, that are purchased as leases from just about any auto manufacturer, will qualify for the $7,500 credit. It’s all a shell game, with the Biden administration determining where the pea is located.

Dec 29 (Reuters) – The U.S. Treasury Department said Thursday that electric vehicles leased by consumers starting Jan. 1 can qualify for up to $7,500 in commercial clean vehicle tax credits, a decision that makes those assembled outside North America eligible.

The announcement is a win for South Korea and some automakers that earlier this month sought approval to use the commercial electric vehicle tax credit to boost consumer EV access. Automakers said the credit could be used to reduce leasing prices.

The $430 billion U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) passed in August ended $7,500 consumer tax credits for purchases of electric vehicles assembled outside North America, angering South Korea, the European Union, Japan and others. The new Treasury guidance does not change the definition of what constitutes North American assembly to make more vehicles eligible for EV purchases.

Treasury said it was using “longstanding tax principles” to determine consumer leasing could qualify for the EV tax credit.

The IRA also imposes significant battery minerals and component sourcing restrictions, sets income and price caps for qualifying vehicles and seeks to phase out Chinese battery minerals or components. The commercial credit does not, however, have the sourcing restrictions of the consumer credit.

Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat who chairs the chamber’s energy panel, urged Treasury to pause implementation of both commercial and new consumer EV tax credits and said they had bent “to the desires of the companies looking for loopholes” and would seek new legislation that “prevents this dangerous interpretation from Treasury from moving forward.” (read more)

From the Wall Street Journal, “One of the documents released Thursday pointed out that because the legislation doesn’t define what a free-trade agreement is, the Treasury Department might consider other types of trade agreements to expand the eligibility. The department didn’t provide examples of such agreements, but trade lawyers have suggested that the 2019 bilateral trade agreement with Japan and the World Trade Organization’s government procurement agreement could be candidates.” (link)

I am reminded of the words from Democrat Congressman Alcee Hastings during the construction of the ObamaCare legislation.  WATCH (10 secs):

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Sen. Cruz: “deeply disturbing” special counsel aiming to indict Trump


One America News Network Published originally on Rumble on December 26, 2022

Texas Senator Ted Cruz warns Attorney General Merrick Garland’s handpicked special counsel to probe former President Trump, Jack Smith, has a history of targeting Tea Party activists. One America’s John Hines has more from Capitol Hill.

There is No Defense to Hypersonic Missiles & Russia’s Plans to Expand


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Dec 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Russia announced yesterday that it will increase its military strength from 1 million to 1.5 million. The Western Press keeps putting out the propaganda that that this is all because Russia has lost momentum and many soldiers in Ukraine. I reported before that sources from Ukraine, not Russia, put the death toll at over 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers. That was also in the draft speech of the head of the EU, but it was removed to keep up the image that Ukraine is winning.

What is not being said here is that Poland has been instructed by the US to increase its military from 100,000 to 250,000 making it the largest force in NATO. It is only a 14-hour drive from Warsaw to Moscow. This in addition to NATO’s plans to incorporate Finland and Sweden, has also played a role in this decision.

The Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu declared that the country needs a force of 1.5 million “to guarantee the fulfillment of tasks to ensure Russia’s security.” China has about 2 million and the USA has about 1.4 million. North Korea has 1,280,000 active with another 600,000 in reserve. Belarus has an army of only 62,000 with 344,750 in reserve.

Currently in Russia, the regular draft, calls up 120,000 to 140,000 men twice a year for a one-year tour of compulsory service. What is becoming very obvious is that the West wants war. There is no desire for peace whatsoever. This has changed the game. The Western Press keeps just putting out propaganda about Ukraine winning, while it is ignoring the mobilization of NATO which is clearly anticipating war. This is not going to be just about Ukraine as we head into 2023. You have to be blind not to see that the West is clearly preparing for war. This is what Russia is now responding to. With Poland raising its army to 250,000, that presents a serious threat to Russia for the exceeds the active personnel in Belarus.

On top of all of this, Putin has wisely instructed that they should be studying how the weapons the US has been handing Ukraine and to regard these as valuable lessons to be learned during the fighting to modernize the armed forces. Thus, Ukraine has been an experiment to study the weapons systems of one’s opponent on both sides.

Putin also made it clear that Russia will start to deploy more hypersonic weapons, noting that the first warship equipped with state-of-the-art Zircon hypersonic missiles will be commissioned by the navy next month. There is no question that defense against Russia’s hypersonic weapons is not something that may be possible. Russia has been using some hypersonic missiles in Ukraine. It is believed among our sources that this may have been more to intimidate NATO and the United States. Obviously, the conventional wisdom has been that there is just no effective defense against hypersonic weapons. Hence, their use has been to intimidate the USA and NATO, but this does not seem to have succeeded.

The USA is exploring how to defend itself against hypersonic missiles. One theory is the exploration of “boundary layer phenomenology,” which is the idea that disrupting the airflow surrounding a hypersonic projectile may throw it off course. Disrupting the airflow may send it off course, but it will still hit something. The other hope is to deploy lower-flying networked satellites in an effort to establish a continuous targeting track of an approaching hypersonic weapon.

The reason there is no defense is that a hypersonic projectile will travel much too fast to track them because it will move from one radar aperture to another, making it virtually impossible to establish a consistent targeting track or lock.

Meanwhile, our brilliant world leaders are playing with everyone’s life all because they prefer war rather than reform whereby they might lose power.

The Holy Grail Quest for President Trump’s Tax Returns Ends with the World’s Loudest Sad Trombone


Posted originally on the CTH on December 22, 2022 | Sundance 

For seven years the media have walked the American people through a journey to publicize President Donald J Trump’s tax returns, using phrases like “bigger than Watergate.” Promising, almost daily, the results of their quest would be “the beginning of the end” of Trump.

Thousands of hours of media punditry shouting about the holy grail paper trail sure to culminate in a result “devastating beyond all imaginings.”

Meanwhile, millions of column inches were filled with “bombshell” promises of deep expose’s, certain to highlight how the universal villain of all things universally villainous would be crushed under the weight of financial nakedness.

This moment, they promised, would be second only in political consequence to origin of our constellation.  The quest for Trump’s taxes was the culmination of thousands of hours of deep Lawfare expertise, an epic battle worthy of Homer.

A horrible human would explode in shame they said. Yes, Trump was about to be exposed by professionals, DC experts who build careers understanding the complex system of tax filings, financial schemes and arcane laws.  WATCH:

These were the Gandolfian wizards, heroes as proclaimed by the pretorian guard media, the gatekeepers who would finally gain access to the epicenter of the one true financial enlightenment that would forever destroy Godzilla Trump and crush the empire beneath him.

Breaths were held as “soon” they swore.  Pearls were clutched as ticks were tocked.  ‘Any moment now’, the masses began to shout.  Busses and trains stopped.  Swarms of people rushed home to watch television.  Flights were being cancelled as the moment drew near.  The economy came to a halt as thrills were pronounced to be running up legs.

The world’s most investigated human in all humanity was on the cusp of the abyss. The moment had finally arrived.  The culmination of years of baited anticipation.  This was THE moment; this was THEIR moment….

Boxes were spotted passing through the halls of congress. “That’s them,” people muttered clamoring for a glimpse.  MSNBC finally, after years of anticipation, triggered the countdown clock – as a visibly climaxing Rachel Maddow could no longer contain the spontaneous ecstasy.

And then…

Nothing.

The world’s most anticipated and promoted financial disclosure in the history of the modern universe, was a complete nothingburger.

The only person who seems happy is Geraldo Rivera, who likely thinks that perhaps now his opening of Al Capone’s empty vault has finally been eclipsed in its ridiculous nothingness.

President Donald Trump’s taxes show an ordinary schedule of incomes and losses that fit within the four corners of every other tax filing by every other private company owner.  Incomes that rose and fell with the U.S. economy.   Worse yet, the filings show income losses that were amplified by Donald Trump’s decision to put aside his business interest and run for public office.

Yes, Donald Trump is the first President of the United States who lost money as an outcome of his political ascendency because he never sold his office to any individual, corporation, multinational or financial interest.    President Donald J Trump worked for the American people, using policies that were designed to benefit the American people, from within an office that was created to benefit the American people.

For the media, the world’s largest sad trombone.