Tag Archives: BREXIT

May 7 2017

Macron’s Victory at 65% is Part I – Part II Parliament Elections in June


Armstrong Economics Blog/France

Re-Posted May 7, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Le Pen conceded but will lead her Party in the Parliamentary elections next month. Macron paid a token gesture saying he understand the anger of 35% of the people who voted for Le Pen. Nevertheless, while the mainstream parties collapsed in France warning that the entire population really voted against the establishment, the sad part comes when the French people wake up and realize that Macron will not save France and if anything Brussels will now move aggressively to lock-down Europe to prevent another BREXIT. Brussels, based upon reliable sources, will seek to secure their own survival and move to federalize Europe to protect their own jobs.

To those who has asked if I would consult with Macron’s government, let me put it mildly. First, he will never call me and two, it would be a huge waste of time. This simply has to play out now. Brussels will NEVER reform or asking if there is something they are doing wrong. Europe will have to crash and burn politically before change will ever come.

The computer was correct back in 2015 when it projected Le Pen would beat both the Socialist and Conservatives. Now the second part of that forecast was just set in motion. There will be no reform for Europe so we are looking at a very hard landing.

Categories: France, Politics
May 7 2017

Obama Tells French to Vote for Macron Proving He is Establishment Doing What He Accused Putin of Supporting Le Pen and Trump


Armstrong Economics Blog/France

Re-Posted May 7, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Obama Intervenes in French Election Proving Macron is Establishment and represents no change for France thereby sealing its doom. Of course, Obama is doing exactly what they he and his mainstream media backers say Putin is doing – trying to influence the French election.

Obama intervened in the British Referendum telling the Brits they would have to get at the back of the queue and would be ignored if they left the EU. Macron will send France and the EU down really hard. He represents no change for France and will commit the country to go down with the EURO Ship.

Turnout is low so far and Le Pen ballots are torn in many places around the country to invalidate them in the count. The ESTABLISHMENT will do what it takes to rig the game as alway

May 7 2017

2017 Cycle of War – Third in the Series


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest

Re-Posted May 7, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

This 2017 edition of the Cycle of War is the third in a series. This one is focused upon the Civil Unrest and how this is the source of Revolution. This turning point in the Cycle of War we have warned was the convergence of both International War and Civil Unrest. This edition will be available by the end of the week for download. The price of this report is $75.

The first in the series focused upon international events and tracing the cycle. The second in this series focused on the Middle East and the rise of religious confrontations. Here in the third installment, this focuses upon the civil unrest trends that emerge into revolutions. These are economically driven and have a direct correlation to rising taxation that pushes the people to the point of no return.

Those attending the Hong Kong and Orlando Conferences will receive this report complementary.

 

May 7 2017

California Wants to Tax Space Flights Per Mile They Travel


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted May 7, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

California Taxing Rockets

Believe it or not, the California Politicians & Regulators just spend all their time trying to figure out how to tax something new for they will never reform, it’s always give me more. California wants to collect taxes from space transportation companies based upon, get this, a formula of how frequent a company launches spacecrafts out of the state, and most absurdly, how far a commercial spacecraft travels from California soil. They want to tax space travel per mile and claim 62 miles above California belongs to the State. Sooner or later, they will want a tax from all satellites that just pass by their state once a day.The space launches are taking place from Vandenberg Air Force Base, in Santa Barbara.

The California Politicians are a special breed. They must have brain damage or they are just so corrupt it is no longer funny. They have claimed that taxing space travel from California “will lead to increased activity in the industry and will foster an atmosphere of growth and prosperity once present during the golden age of California’s aviation industry, thereby creating jobs as the industry thrives in this state.”

Any company should look for prosperity in Texas or Florida and forget California. The State is beyond help at this stage.

This should be the new theme song for California

May 6 2017

French Election Commission Tries to Quash Macron Document Release…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House Posted on May 6, 2017 by

The French election commission and all French media are attempting to keep presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron’s email and document release from having an impact on the election; even going so far as to warn people that reading the content might be illegal.

With 9.9 gigabytes of data uploaded to Pastebin it sets up a rather unusual issue if Macron happens to win the election and the content of the email and documents show manipulation and coordination of the candidate by interests external to France.

Via Reuters – France sought to keep a computer hack of frontrunner Emmanuel Macron’s campaign emails from influencing the outcome of the country’s presidential election with a warning on Saturday it could be a criminal offence to republish the data.

Macron’s team said a “massive” hack had dumped emails, documents and campaign financing information online just before campaigning ended on Friday and France entered a quiet period which forbids politicians from commenting on the leak.

The data leak emerged as polls predicted Macron, a former investment banker and economy minister, was on course for a comfortable victory over far-right leader Marine Le Pen in Sunday’s election, with the last surveys showing his lead widening to around 62 percent to 38.

“On the eve of the most important election for our institutions, the commission calls on everyone present on internet sites and social networks, primarily the media, but also all citizens, to show responsibility and not to pass on this content, so as not to distort the sincerity of the ballot,” the French election commission said in a statement on Saturday.

However, the commission – which supervises the electoral process – may find it difficult to enforce its rules in an era where people get much of their news online, information flows freely across borders and many users are anonymous.

French media covered the hack in various ways, with left-leading Liberation giving it prominence on its website, but television news channels opting not to mention it.

Le Monde newspaper said on its website it would not publish the content of any of the leaked documents before the election, partly because the huge amount of data meant there was not enough time to report on it properly, but also because the dossiers had been published on purpose 48 hours before the election with the clear aim of affecting the vote. (read more)

May 6 2017

Hunting Tourists in Europe for Fines


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted May 6, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Milan Bus

COMMENT:

Hi Marty,

The hunt for taxes is really getting out of control.

I enjoyed a week of vacation in Italy and on my way back home I had a few hours to kill in Milan.
So i decided to spend some time in the City center of Milan before leaving from Linate airport.

I bought 3 bus tickets Linate – Milan, enjoyed my stay and on my way back I bought again 3 tickets.
On my way back to the airport the bus way half full, many of them tourists like me on their way to the airport.

Halfway 2 public officers got on the bus and started to check for valid bus tickets.
Although I nicely bought my tickets (6 in total) I did get fined because I did not validated my tickets in a machine that was nowhere in site.

Tickets where completely in Italian language, not even the bus driver pointed out to stamp the tickets.
No excuse was taken seriously. The fine had to be payed.

What stroke me was that only the non local persons on the bus got checked (easily identified by caring luggage).
All locals/native Italian where left alone.

After discussing this with Italian friends at the airport, I understood this was just common practice.
The Italian public officers are worse than mafia.
RVL

REPLY: Italy is becoming notorious for extorting tourists. If you rent a car, after one year they will start sending you traffic tickets and never identify where or when you committed some offense. One friend paid the first ticket, then the second, and stopped paying. When they sent me tickets from Rome, I refused to even pay anything. They then turned it over to a collection agency and I blew them off the phone so aggressively they never called again. They cannot legally turn it over to a collection agency with no validation of anything and they can never put it on your credit report. It’s just one giant fraud. The collection agency cannot prove you owe anything.

Use taxis and make sure they turn on the meter. They like to talk and pretend to be friendly to distract you from noticing they never turned on the meter. They then try to get you to pay twice or three time what the trip would have been.

Ah – the pleasures of tourism in Europe these days. France is no better. You have a red target on your forehead and it says sucker.

May 6 2017

French Elections – A Sell Signal Long-term for the EU Regardless of Who Wins


Armstrong Economics Blog/France

Re-Posted May 6, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

2017 Election

QUESTION:  Martin, I know your computer has a prediction for the French election and I am sure you have an opinion, I am of the opinion that the French deplorables will come out in mass to vote for LePen. Vive la France!!! What is your opinion. This could be the event that crumbles the EU for good. Thoughts?

ANSWER: This is the craziest election because the computer projected Le Pen would beat both the socialists and the conservatives back in 2015. I gave that forecast back then when it really sounded nuts. It’s my job to say what the computer is forecasting. I have learned over the years that my opinion comes in second-place.

So strangely, the computer is correct even if Macron wins because all mainstream parties were defeated by Le Pen in the first round.

I really hope Le Pen wins because that will force Brussels to look in a mirror just once. If Macron wins, we are looking at a very hard landing for the EU next year. This will probably rise up even violently and places Europe at risk of civil war from the standpoint that Brussels has federalized Europe behind everyone’s back.

The French polls being reported put Macron at 63% and Le Pen at 37%. Her followers will be more passionate about voting and the polls are making a serious mistake as they did in BREXIT. They are trying to manipulate the election. Even Brussels is desperately trying to hand out huge bills to leave. They want €100 billion from Britain and they have threatened Italy and France if they try to leave. How do they enforce their demands? Invade with the federal army they are trying to build? Or will Germany, Netherlands and others lend troops to invade Italy or France? Oh, let’s see. The reason to federalize Europe was to eliminate European War. Hm!

CAC40-M 1998-2017

 

The CAC40 has finally broken the Downtrend Line on the Monthly Chart. This has not been because of bullishness for the French Economy – this is capital fleeing the government sectors and running into private assets. With BREXIT, the bankers support the government ALWAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Even HSBC said they would leave Britain if BREXIT passed and move to Paris. Hm. The European banking system is in serious danger of crumbling. A good stiff wind can blow it over. ANY bank that were to be stupid enough to move to the EU is a MAJOR SHORT for the long-term.

May 5 2017

BREAKING: Confirmed Authentic – Massive 9 Gig Dump of Emails from French Presidential Candidate Emmanuel Macron…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on May 5, 2017 by

Well this is stunning to say the least.  After initial denials the campaign of French Presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron is now confirming the authenticity of a massive upload of emails from his account.

The 9.9 Gigs of emails, outlining some very sketchy deals by the presidential candidate, were uploaded to Pastebin a document sharing site – SEE HERE –  Initially no-one was able to confirm the authenticity, and the campaign of Macron denied.   WikiLeaks began an attempt to authenticate the release.

However, the authentication is no longer necessarily warranted as the campaign is admitting they were hacked, and the content appears to be directly from the accounts of Emmanuel Macron:

The campaign of French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron condemns “massive hacking attack” after document leak(link)

Reuters initially reported:

A large trove of emails purporting to be from the campaign of French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron was posted online late on Friday, 1-1/2 days before voters go to the polls to choose the country’s next president in a run-off with Marine Le Pen.

Some nine gigabytes of data were posted by a user called EMLEAKS to Pastebin, a document-sharing site that allows anonymous posting. (read more)

May 5 2017

Italy Dependent On ECB “Buyer Of Last Resort” As Foreign Investors Dump Bonds Amid Capital Flight


Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Re-Posted from ZERO HEDGE May 5, 2017 7:51 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Italy is increasingly dependent on the ECB to hold down bond yields as foreign investors dump Italian bonds like mad.

Eurointelligence bills this as “Further Evidence of Capital Flight in Italy“. 

In a column earlier this week, Federico Fubini notes that, according to the Bank of International Settlements, in 2016 international banks reduced their exposure to Italy by 15%, or over $100bn, half of it in the last quarter of the year. The counterpart to this exposure reduction is the increase in the negative Target2 balance of Italy, which the ECB has already attributed to foreign investors selling into its asset purchase programs, and reinvesting the proceeds away from Italy. As a result of all this, Italy’s financial stability is increasingly dependent on the ECB.

The Capital Flight article by Federico Fubini is in Italian. Here is an unmodified snip from the article.

Distrust Widespread

Clearly, therefore, there is a conspiracy, but a widespread distrust of the direction being taken in the third euro area economy. Especially the banking system in Germany seems to have developed a deep-seated distrust. His exposure to the country late last year is worth little more than a quarter of that of the French banks, and now has dropped so much that is 30% below that that German institutions had on Italy at Euro 1999 debut. No other major banking system has implemented a retreat of these proportions, as if the integration of the single currency had never even begun.

The loss of one hundred billion dollars by large foreign banking investors would be a blow, not for purchases of Italian bonds by the European Central Bank. Throughout 2016 we continued at the rate of about ten billion Euros per month, on corporate bonds and especially on sovereign bonds. In fact the release of foreign banks is linked to the ECB intervention, because those have the opportunity to sell at the Institute of Frankfurt good part of their Roma government bonds. It is no coincidence if the public debt held abroad fell by 42 billion in just the first nine months of 2016, according to Bruegel. The irruption of the ECB in the market and the withdrawal of foreign banks are thus two sides of the same coin. The result is that the Italian financial stability is becoming more and more dependent on the support of an international institution, that next year will almost certainly cease.

I spoke about this process before in Target2 and Secret Bailouts: Will Germany be Forced Into a Fiscal Union with Rest of Eurozone.

One person I highly respect is adamant (or at least was) that rising Target2 does not represent capital flight.

But what else do you call it when foreign investors dump Italian bonds to ECB, the buyer of only resort

May 5 2017

The Hunt for Taxes is Global


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted May 5, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Hadrian-TaxRevolt

Trajan-Welfare-YouthTaxes are the root of all evil for this is the confrontation against the people that historically leads to civil unrest and then revolution. The American and French Revolutions were over taxes. Historically, even the Roman Empire was forced from time to time to grant tax amnesty as was the case in 119AD. You even have Roman Emperors such a Trajan (98-117AD) engaging in social legislation known as the Alimenta, which was a welfare program that helped orphans and poor children throughout Italy. The Alimenta provided general funds, food and subsidized education for children. The funding came from the Dacian War booty initially. When that ran out, it was funded by a combination of estate taxes and philanthropy.The state provided loans like Fannie Mae providing mortgages on Italian farms (fundi). The registered landowners in Italy received a lump sum from the imperial treasury. In return, the borrower was expected to pay yearly a given proportion of the loan to the maintenance of an Alimentary Fund – a kickback so to speak. Taxes and social programs have been a very long time.

Today, debts are never reduced. Consequently, governments only raise taxes continually. We see this is some of the richest countries in the world. Now Singapore is passing three amendments expanding the power of the Ministry of Finance (MOF) under the Property Tax Act. This new legislation is one that will hand the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS) more enforcement and investigative powers. Singapore government is using the law to force people to pay more in taxes. There will be no privacy. Under this legislation, the tax authorities will be able to summon people to appear personally before them and to provide all information. They will be interrogated orally for investigation be it their own taxes, or another person’s property/properties.

Governments are moving ever more closer to totalitarian states eliminating privacy and human rights. This is a global trend that will come to a head for governments will never reduce their costs and will always demand more and more taxes from the people until the bubble bursts.