Posted originally on Dec 16, 2023 By Martin Armstrong
Europe is desperate to commit geopolitical and economic suicide. They have bullshitted the people all along, and all they are interested in is creating war to devastate Europe a third time simply as the excuse to cover up the economic failure of the Euro and the fiscal mismanagement of the economy. All world leaders have been borrowing endlessly with absolutely NO INTENTION of ever paying off what they borrowed. These elites NEVER represent the people. They are putting all the lives of Europe and the world at risk – for what? Not a single one of these politicians will ever even consider peace. Rome had peace for 1,000 years BECAUSE everyone benefitted economically. These morons do the opposite imposing sanctions on people if they do not do as they command.
Europe has wanted war with Russia from the start. They negotiate in BAD FAITH to stall Russia so Ukraine could build an army and wage war against Russia to weaken it first BEFORE NATO finds the excuse to justify invading Russia. Where it was once Khrushchev saying he would bury the West by spreading communism, now, even though communism collapsed all by itself, the West has not abandoned the Cold War. It is on the very same mission to “spread” democracy to the world when we do not even have democracy – we are under a dictatorship pretending to be a republic representing the people when they represent only their own thirst for power. Russia would be a fool to negotiate with the West when they do not honor their agreements. This is why 2032 is necessary.
Here you have Hillary Clinton, a real warmonger who wanted to draft girls back in 2016 (which was why three girls in our office voted against her calling her a female Nazi). Listen to her. She states that Afghanistan is the “model” to suck in Russia, use the Ukrainians as bait, keep funding them to die for her agenda and weaken Russia. The agenda has never changed. They have sought to seize Russia and all its wealth since 1998, and their attempt to blackmail Yeltsin to seize control by installing their puppet Berzobvsky. They even tried to get me to invest $10 billion into this scheme. When I refused, Berezovsky even called me personally. Over 500,000 Ukrainians are dead on the battlefield, their country destroyed, and between 8 to 10 million have fled to Europe, all to seize Russia in this endless war.
Hillary said they did not expect Ukraine actually to defeat Russia. She also skips over the “unintended consequences” of Afghanistan, like the Taliban turning our weapons on Americans and, of course, 9/11 and the Iraq War. That’s a lot of “unintended consequences” that she pushes aside. So how many dead Ukrainians will this unintended consequence result in or the millions of Ukrainians who have fled to Europe with no intention of returning?
Viktor Orbán is the ONLY leader trying to save Europe from these Neocon warmongers. Russia is on the verge of total victory in Ukraine. So, the EU is desperate to try to rush Ukraine into the EU and then NATO. This proxy war, which has devastated Ukraine and sacrificed its people on the Neocon altar of world domination, has placed the US and the EU, along with NATO, in a difficult position. After all the propaganda about Russia and Putin as the aggressor, it has been the West that does not want peace, as evidenced by even the Ukrainian press reporting that the purpose of Boris Johnson’s visit was to make sure there would be no peace agreement. EVERYTHING we have been told is an absolute lie. The Russian people do not want war any more than the average European or American. Politicians always create war, and they ALWAYS lie about everything. They tried to take over Russia and even tried to bring it into NATO. This set in motion the 1991 collapse.
Posted originally on Dec 15, 2023 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Socrates picked up the Hamas attack, marking July as the high with a directional change, then another directional change in September before the attack, a panic cycle into November, and another directional change. The market then bounced. NBC reported that people were speculating in advance of the attack, and it may have been Hamas or the Israelis shorting the market. Socrates picked it up well in advance. Do you think whoever was using Socrates for the timing? They are starting to pick up on your theory about markets moving ahead of events on inside knowledge. You have never received credit for your discovery. That in itself demonstrates the lack of integrity in the mainstream press.
Anonymous
ANSWER: I do not know. Our model cannot say who it is. It might have been the Neocons funding an offshore slush fund as in Iran Contra or the alleged drug trafficking by the CIA. My concern is they always seem to target me and claim I have too much influence because they do not believe anything can be forecast. Just listen closely to Larry Summers. He says the economy cannot be forecasted, and if you could, it would be because of influence.
Some people would love to shut me down and destroy Socrates. That was what the bankers did, complaining to the CFTC after the Russian collapse. It does not matter. They make up schemes, and the press runs with them and NEVER looks too closely. In my case, the bank stole the money and told the government they had no idea where it was. No journalist ever asked how anyone gets $1 billion out of a bank, and the bank has no idea where it is. That much money has to be wired out, and you then know where the wire went. It did not matter how insane the allegation was; NOBODY in the press ever asked that question.
Mainstream media and Wikipedia are nothing more than the American version of Pravda of the old Soviet Union days, meaning TRUTH. Boris Berezovsky wrote a begging letter to Putin asking him to come home and apologizing for his scheme to become president. The press reported that the government claimed Berezovsky committed suicide. His bodyguard said he was killed by MI6. He was part of the conspiracy to seize control of Russia in 2000. He even called me when I refused to invest $10 billion into Hermitage Capital Management to seize control of Russia with the Bankers and Neocons.
Then, the very guy who tied Clinton together with Epstein also commits suicide and hangs himself but also shoots himself with a shotgun. They called that suicide along with Epstein, and mainstream media always looks the other way. Did he shoot himself first and then hanged himself as he was dying? Or did he hang himself and then shoot himself? Did someone hand him the gun?
Some people do not want anyone forecasting anything that hits too close to home. I’m sure they do not like Socrates’ forecast that governments will not survive past 2032. They locked me up in civil contempt to stop the forecasting. They never could prevent this model from the market and still complied with the forecasts. On the floor in 2007, which was the precise day of the high in the Shiller Real Estate Index and the very day Goldman sold its time bomb, they were calling it Armstrong’s Revenge on the floor.
The one that got me into trouble was when I forecasted the collapse of Russia in 1998 and that the stock market would make its high on the ECM which was July 20th. The London FT covered that forecast, and they were claiming it would not have happened but for me. Then the 9/11 World Trade Center attack also took place on the precise day of the Pi Target of that wave.
The ECM Pi target even picked the day Hitler was offered the Chancellorship. That was before I was born, so how did I have the influence to make that happen?
The model picked the very day of 9/11, the ERM Crisis, where Soros made his fortune.
Then there was the very day Greece petitioned the IMF for a loan, for they were broke, starting the financial crisis and the massive migration into Europe to distract from the Greek debt crisis.
The ECM even picked the precise day of the very day of the low for the 1987 crash – October 19th, 1987. All of these events were forecast, and none of them had to do with my “influence,” so it does not matter if they kill me or call it a suicide like Berezovsky of Epstein; it will not change the forecasts. Sorry, 2032 comes if I am here or not. Or perhaps I hang myself, then shoot myself with a shotgun, and they call that as usual – suicide.
In 2009, I warned that the low would be in place and the market would rally to New Highs would unfold as we rallied into the 8.6-year wave in 2015. Barrons ran a story on June 25, 2011, stating the forecast for a long-term bull market. The Dow was only 11450 – about one-third of its present value. They thought that was a funny forecast.
The number of turns following the ECM is astonishing. You cannot make up this stuff. Nevertheless, the world rejects the idea of any ability to forecast outside of fundamental guessing.
Posted originally on Dec 14, 2023 By Martin Armstrong
Whenever those in Congress mess with real estate, they have ALWAYS, and without exception, caused a major crash. The Entire Savings & Loan (S&L) Crisis was a catastrophic disaster that wiped out nearly one-third of all the 3,234 savings and loan associations in the United States between 1986 and 1995. I previously mentioned that hedge funds were created by a regulation conflict between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC). If you obeyed one, you went to jail with the other.
Back in the 1980s, we began the S&P500 Report when futures started to trade. We had to refund everyone’s money and shut down the report because these two agencies were fighting over who had the regulatory power of stock index futures. We could not provide analysis as long as the two agencies fought for power. It came down to a Supreme Court decision that finally said forecasting was free speech – SEC v Lowe. Nevertheless, in funds management, you could not hedge for a client domestically because if you had a stock portfolio and you thought there was a crash unfolding, you were only allowed to hedge 17% for anything more than that made you a futures fund – rather than a stock fund. The only way to trade everything was to move offshore, and these were called Hedge Funds, which you were not allowed to do domestically. To this day, you have separate funds domestically, each claiming they are the best, forcing the decision onto the average person.
The S&L crisis was also created by Congress’s persistent quest to regulate things they do not understand. Once more, there was a conflict and mismatch of regulations regarding S&Ls v banks. Congress had imposed restrictions on S&Ls with the creation of the Federal Home Loan Bank Act of 1932, which included such caps on interest rates on deposits and loans. They also directed that S&Ls should be lending into the real estate market and banks should be focused effectively on businesses. The banks still could do mortgages.
The market conditions moved into deflation between 1981 and 1985 because Volcker raised rates at the Fed to 14% to stop inflation, which caused capital inflows to buy bonds, sending the dollar to rise dramatically on international markets. The British pound crashed from $2.40 to $1.03 by 1985. However, the regulations on how much interest an S&L could pay meant they could not compete with the rates that the Fed adopted, and nobody in Congress noticed until 1982. The S&Ls experienced a massive capital outflow, and they were left with low-interest long-term mortgages.
In 1982, President Ronald Reagan signed Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act, which was intended to correct the conflict between high interest rates and caps on the S&Ls. The reform eliminated loan-to-value ratios and interest rate caps for S&Ls. In addition, it also allowed them to hold 30% of their assets in consumer loans and 40% in commercial loans for the first time. The S&Ls began paying higher rates to attract funds. S&Ls also began investing in commercial real estate, which had tax advantages with regard to amortization.
As always, the Democrat’s constant hunt to punish the rich with every breath they take caused the entire S&L crisis of the 1980s. The Democrats only see the money dangling in front of them and nothing else. They pushed through a landmark 1986 Tax Reform Act that reduced the top personal income tax rate from 50% to 28%. However, in a bitterly divided Congress, as usual, demanded a compromise and that the income tax cuts were to be paid for by raising the rate on capital gains from 20% to 28% and limiting the deductibility of real estate losses for passive investors. The braindead unintended consequences undermined the entire real estate market and took down the S&L Industry in the process.
The S&L crisis demonstrated that those in government NEVER understand the private sector. They created the business model of the S&Ls whereby they made 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, which Roosevelt invented to solve the real estate collapse back in the Great Depression. To provide those loans, S&Ls depended on a deposit based on DEMAND that could be withdrawn within 30 days. When the Fed raised rates to 14% in 1981, the S&Ls were in trouble and lost deposits when they were prevented from paying higher rates. That was not lifted until the Reagan 1982 reform. This is the basic banking model using on-demand money to lend out long-term. To this day, the Fed directs the “Model Risk,” which you can review at SR 11-7: Guidance on Model Risk Management.
At first, the measures seemed to have worked, and by 1985, S&L assets had risen by almost 50%. Commercial real estate became the “hot” market. This is what attracted the Democrats. They saw all this money pouring into mortgages, so they could not resist changing the laws to get at that money in 1986. The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 accelerated the depreciation of commercial and noncommercial real estate, making those investments quite attractive. Then, the Democrats saw the money and pushed the Tax Reform Act of 1986 to extend depreciation schedules for both real estate forms, reducing the attractiveness of those investments.
These people NEVER understand market behavior. By extending the depreciation tables, they created a one-way market. Real Estate collapsed, everyone tried to sell, and there was NO BID! One of the few Congressmen with real estate experience at the time called me and asked what my model projected. I told him this would be a major crash that would cost a fortune because there were also government guarantees behind a portion of the mortgages left over from the Great Depression days. Nobody would listen to his warnings.
In the meantime, pressure was mounting on the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation’s coffers (FSLIC). By 1987, the FSLIC had become insolvent. Rather than allowing it and S&Ls to fail as they were destined to do, the federal government recapitalized the FSLIC, exposing taxpayers to even greater risk. The S&Ls were allowed to continue to pile on risk. I had a client who wanted to buy an S&L, and I advised him not to get involved and that the crisis would worsen. He did not listen, bought a failed S&L, and recapitalized it; as the crisis worsened, they kept changing the capitalization requirement, ended up seizing his S&L, and lost most of his investment.
A bill is now being introduced to Congress that will prohibit hedge funds and other institutional investors from buying single-family homes. What these people in Congress FAIL to ever understand, is that they will now eliminate that segment of buyers and create a one-way market. Prices will have to collapse as these investors will ONLY be able to sell to a mom-and-pop, and as we head into a recession from 2024 to 2028, this does not bode well for the blue states especially.
The intent of the bill is to address the housing supply, which continues to dry up as prices have been climbing 20% since 2021. They believe that the low housing supply is driving up prices, and they are pointing their finger at hedge funds to blame, like Blackrock. The bill’s sponsors are U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Representative Adam Smith (D-WA). Of course, they ignore their spending, and pouring countless billions into Ukraine has nothing to do with inflation, and certainly, their COVID scam had nothing to do with anything regarding prices or unemployment. It is NEVER them on Capital Hill – it is always we, the Great Unwashed.
This bill is entitled the End Hedge Fund Control of American Homes Act of 2023, targeting both hedge funds and private equity firms that have been buying single-family houses as investment properties. While the bill addresses a serious issue, what we MUST understand is that people “feel” rich when their homes rise in value, for they see that as their savings. Both the Great Depression and the Great Recession of 2007-2009 impacted real estate, and this is the MOST sensitive area of the economy. You can take the stock market down 90% and the bond market. They will impact only a portion of the economy, typically the upper classes. However, when you take down the real estate market, now you are messing with the bulk of the middle class.
Senator Jeff Merkley said in his statement, “The housing in our neighborhoods should be homes for people, not profit centers for Wall Street.” While I do not support Blackrock and its agenda, this is closing the barn door after the horse ran away. He has made a big splash, saying: “It’s time for Congress to put in place commonsense guardrails that ensure all families have a fair chance to buy or rent a decent home in their community at a price they can afford.”
Larry Fink, BlackRock CEO, is a board member of Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum who preaches you will own nothing and be happy. Fink is also behind Zelensky, promising to invest in a war zone. Meanwhile, Fink sent his 2022 letter to CEOs of companies he has invested in on January 17th, 2022, while intimidating them to follow Schwab’s WEF. His letter reflected Klaus Schwab’s Agenda 2030. He stated:
“I write these letters as a fiduciary for our clients who entrust us to manage their assets – to highlight the themes that I believe are vital to driving durable long-term returns and to helping them reach their goals.”
BlackRock insists that it does not invest in single-family homes. It claims that it invests in multifamily properties, apartment complexes, and other residential real estate. They insist that they are not one of the large asset managers and private equity firms who have been buying single-family homes.
On August 2, 2021, CNN reported that during the first three months of 2021, “nearly a quarter of all homes sold in the United States were going to investors.” They reported that BlackRock (BLK), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Goldman Sachs (GS) were among the big-name buyers. They further reported, “Institutional investors still own only about 2% of all single-family rentals in the United States, or roughly 300,000 homes, according to John Burns research director Rick Palacios.”
The headline from 2021 made it sound that Blackstone was BUYING 17,000 single-family houses, outbidding regular mom-and-pop buyers with its $6 billion war chest. Blackstone bought Home Partners of America, which had already owned 17,000 single-family houses, and rents them out to tenants with an option to buy at a preset price at any time with 30 days’ notice. They insist that they are facilitating private home ownership by providing an option to buy.
Here is a chart provided by Freddie Mac, which shows the contest between large institutional buyers vs mom-and-pop as a percentage of the marketplace. The overall market share of investors has grown to around 30%. Like the changing of the depreciation table on real estate in 1986 by the Democrats caused a one-way market of sellers with no bid, outlawing investors now when they already have 30% of the market can lead to a MAJOR recession following the ECM between 2024 into 2028.
We have a Directional Change in 2024 and should expect higher volatility into 2025.
Posted originally on Dec 14, 2023 By Martin Armstrong
South Korea hosts one of the lowest birth rates in the modern world. The nation’s population began decreasing significantly in 2021. Statistics Korea reported that only 249,000 babies were born in 2022, marking a 4.4% decline from 2021. The birth rate needs to stay at 2.1 to maintain the current population of 52 million, however, the current birth rate is only 0.78. A look into the finances of South Korea’s youth makes it quite obvious why couples are not reproducing.
The 2022 Seoul Young Adult Panel Study found that 55.6% of the youth were in asset poverty, meaning they did not have the liquidity to cover their basic needs for three months. This figure spikes to 62.7% when accounting for those living alone. Young adults aged 19 to 24 have a personal income poverty rate of 73.4%, which accounts for an income beneath 50% of the average median. Of the 5,083 people under the age of 35 polled, 47.5% still live at home with their parents and 41.2% rely on parental financial support.
The same situation can be seen throughout the modern world. The youth cannot afford to support themselves let alone families. South Korea’s government has attempted to entice couples by offering prolonged maternity leave. President Yoon Suk-yeol is also offering 700,000 won per month ($540) to couples with children under one.
Unemployment among Korean youth is also a serious problem. Statistics Korea reported that nearly half (45.5%) of people aged 15 to 29 were unemployed for over a year. These teens and young adults went to school and worked for a successful future only for 44.3% of graduates to find themselves unemployed after university ended. It is no wonder that the Seoul Metropolitan Government and Seoul Institute reported that 34.7% of Seoul’s youth are suffering from depression. Young couples cannot afford to have families and the population crisis will continue throughout the modern world as the global economy turns down.
Posted originally on Dec 14, 2023 By Martin Armstrong
Government officials do not understand why Americans are disappointed with Bidenomics. Biden’s own team did not realize the term “Bidenomics” was intended to mock the president’s policies and they have adopted it as their own. “Bidenomics is about growing the economy from the middle out and the bottom up, not the top down,” Joe Biden posted on X, formerly Twitter, in July 2023. Americans’ personal financial situation has only deteriorated under Bidenomics and no one seems to understand why.
A November poll published by the Financial Times found that only 14% of Americans believe they are better off financially under Biden. Those people are likely on welfare. Around 70% of American voters feel Bidenomics hurt the economy or had no impact, with 33% saying they “hurt the economy a lot.” These numbers are staggering, as no president in recent history has managed to derail a stable economy so rapidly.
When asked why Bidenomics was not landing with Americans, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she believes COVID is to blame. COVID has provided Biden with the only optimistic data figure in that unemployment naturally decreased once the economy reopened, but of course he is chalking it up to his policies. Sacrificing America’s energy independence for the Build Back Better agenda was Biden’s priority on day one in office. We have seen inflation rise every month of his presidency and experienced record-high inflation in June of last year. INFLATION WAS AT 1.4% WHEN JOE BIDEN TOOK OFFICE IN JANUARY 2021.
Now, I obviously do not blame the government for the issues at the Fed and their QE failures. However, the Fed has been attempting to tame inflation by raising rates and it simply is ineffective. Biden prided himself on implementing countless multi-trillion-dollar spending packages at a time when America is operating at its steepest deficit. Then Biden’s Administration managed to insert itself in numerous overseas conflicts. They also allowed million of illegals to invade America and paid them to do so. Inflation cannot decline amid war.
The majority of Americans have a drastically lower standard of living thanks to Bidenomics. Some estimates believe 63% of Americans now live paycheck to paycheck. Real disposable income has decreased 7.5% since January 2021, and credit card debt is up 36.2%. Monthly savings have plummeted 81.4% since Biden took office, and home affordability is down 37.3%.
It is an insult at this point for the current administration to gaslight Americans into thinking our situation is anything but dire.
Posted originally on Dec 14, 2023 By Martin Armstrong
Blue cities across the US are contemplating banning masks. A few years ago these cities would not allow people to enter public establishments without a mask. But now, after Soros-backed DAs blindfolded themselves to the drastic uptick in crime, cities such as Philadelphia, Atlanta, and New York are banning face masks to prevent criminals from evading police.
Balaclavas or ski masks have become a popular fashion accessory among urban youth. Far-left fashion publication Vogue even published an article in February 2023 entitled,“All the Cool Kids Are Wearing Balaclavas.” If someone walked into the bank with a ski mask on, it would have been considered a threat. Now, civil rights groups claim that these masks represent freedom of expression.
Executive Director of Violence Interrupters Tio Hardiman believes the normalization of facial masks has emboldened criminals. “If a person is not going skiing, they should not have on a full face ski mask,” Hardiman said. “Full face ski masks appear to give criminals an edge… It’s making the criminals emboldened. Almost like they’re invincible.”
Philadelphia is proposing a law that would impose a $250 fine on anyone wearing a face mask in public. “The Philadelphia Police Department can’t tell who’s a criminal and not a criminal, which makes it difficult for crimes to be solved in Philadelphia,” council member Anthony Phillips told CNN. Philadelphia Police Department Deputy Commissioner Francis Healy believes that the pandemic changed the public’s perceived risk. “There was a time not so long ago when any average police officer would see a person donning a mask before entering a convenience store or a bank and they would believe a robbery was about to occur,” Healy said. “However, the pandemic changed that mindset where people were actually more fearful of people without masks than with masks.”
Crime has risen drastically in every blue city since the pandemic. Those who claim banning masks is an infringement on human rights or even racist do not realize that facial coverings were regulated in the 1800s due to the Ku Klux Klan using white hoods to commit atrocious crimes undetected.
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