OK. I suppose it was just a matter of time. In Thailand, a clever thief drilled into car’s fuel tank to steal the gasoline. In the United States, people are complaining about the fuel cost of $5 a gallon. In Europe, they sell it by the liter. In Europe, when on par with the United States, one gallon is now running for $10 a gallon. With the model projecting that we can see oil run-up to over $200 in 2023, we are looking at crazy times in energy which will come back as civil unrest.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 16, 2022 | Sundance
Western sanctions against Russia have been used primarily to obfuscate the cause of western inflation and keep the citizen pitchforks from reaching various government offices. So far, the strategy -assisted by western media- has been mostly successful.
However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is reporting that despite the western sanctions against Russia, the Russian energy sector is having no trouble finding customers for its oil sales. With global oil prices at their highest rates in years, in part driven by the energy policy of the same western leaders who triggered the sanctions, Russia is getting just as much economic benefit as it was before the sanctions regime was triggered.
(EU FINANCE) – Russia continued to rake in oil revenues in May despite a global boycott from companies and most countries following its invasion of Ukraine, a new report has shown.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the Kremlin’s oil-export revenues surged to around $20bn last month, an 11% increase from the month before, despite shipping lower volumes.
Its latest monthly report, published on Wednesday, said this takes Moscow’s total revenue for shipping oil and crude products roughly back to levels before the invasion of Ukraine. Russian exports fell by about 3% due to lower oil-product flows, the Paris-based agency estimates.
Meanwhile, crude shipped during the month grew by nearly 500,000 barrels a day compared to the start of the year, largely thanks to higher deliveries in Asia.
“China and India, which have both sharply increased crude oil purchases from Russia, are net product exporters and have no need to lift Russian products,” it said. (read more)
Klaus Schwab’s view of the future and Artificial Intelligence is seriously flawed. He argues that the fusing of the political, physical, digital, and biological worlds will have a transformative impact on every facet of human existence. He insists that this will range from the way we live our lives, the manner in which we will work, the reconfiguration of economic models, the products we sell, and I believe his self-delusion, the power to extend our lives indefinitely. Of course, his cohort, Yuval Noah Harari, dreams of converting society into programmed robots. Meanwhile, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla dreams of putting chips in every pill that confirms to a central database that you took his latest creation.
Schwab’s Fourth Industrial Revolution is seriously flawed for he has no understanding of actual real AI programming. Yes, insofar as AI is concerned, I do not believe in the view that if you throw in mountains of data, somehow the computer will evolve and figure it all out and come up with a force or conclusion. They did that at IBM with Big Blue. They thought it would find the cure for cancer – it failed. There is something more that makes our brain function. It is NOT just a neural net and consciousness somehow emerges because of all the connections. Granted, they try to mimic the brain and look upon us as simply a biological lifeform without actually understanding there is something much deeper.
Perhaps the night you suddenly fell in love with your partner. You were out to dinner, and your unconscious mind actually recorded everything — the place, the food, the music, what they wore. You consciously are not actually noticing all these variables. But years later, you hear that song, taste that same food, or revisit the place. Suddenly, without even trying to remember, the event is relived. You can close your eyes and see the event as if it were a recorded movie. Our brain is actually recording everything without us even trying. Creating a neural net and dumping all this information in there does not recreate that ability.
Sigmund Freud (1856- 1939) and Carl Gustav Jung (1875–1961) dived very deeply into the construct of the mind. Their view of our unconscious was the result of very deep self-analysis. Socrates is different. I created pathways and taught it how to analyze. I spend a lot of time self-analyzing how I would trade, and what I would look at as an international hedge fund manager. I had to understand how the mind actually worked both on the conscious and unconscious levels.
Because I knew I was not going to be a world globe trotter again, I got a dog. She has taught me about how the mind also works. She thinks. She has a strategy. She has the same range of emotions that we have from boredom to excitement. I can see her thinking. She clearly communicates through her eyes and body language. There is an innate ability to communicate with dogs that has evolved over the centuries, which is one of the primary reasons our canine-human love affair has gone on for centuries. There is a distinct dog-human interspecies understanding that is extraordinary, but it also is a glimpse into ourselves. She anticipates where I will go when I get up and will gently let me know when she is hungry. But to my astonishment, she will play ball, but then will try to make me go fetch. She would bang her bowl if it was out of the water, but then if she wanted me to stop working, she would bang the bowl because she knew that sound would cause me to come out of the office.
There is a whole other aspect to not just our mind, but how even a dog thinks, which reveals to me that the failure in AI with machine learning is that it is one-dimensional. There is a far deeper level of activity beyond our conscious mind that they try to duplicate with neural nets. My dog has indeed reinforced my understanding of how to really construct AI, which is substantially different from the one-dimensional neural net.
My dog understands so many words that it is astonishing. I was talking with a friend and just mentioned the word “dog,” and she got up and immediately ran to the window to see what dog dared to enter her domain. If I say we are going shopping, she goes to the front door. If I say we are going to take a walk, she runs to the back door. She obviously understands far more language than I ever expected. A 2020 study by researchers at Eötvös Loránd University in Hungary discovered that, while dogs may not pick up minute details in human speech, they can, in fact, comprehend their owners’ most basic words.
What she has taught me is that even a dog has a conscious and unconscious mind. She dreams as we go. It is really amazing when you pay attention. This is just far more involved than creating a one-dimensional neural net, throwing a bunch of data in, shaking (not stirring), and hoping for the best. Their theory that accelerating the ability to calculate and adding parameters to models was not really a game-changer. The models are faster, and playing a game of chess or Jeopardy, they can beat a human because they have the ability to test every possible outcome in a few minutes. But that is the problem. They can wow everyone with speed, but they CAN NOT create something new. That was the failure of IBM’s Big Blue.
Creativity REQUIRED imagination, and expanding the nodes and speed does not lead to imagination. Without imagination, we cannot create a real game-changer. Thus, all the AI that Schwab cheers will lead the world into his Fourth Industrial Revolution is missing the critical ingredient, which does not exist in the conscious mind but is buried in the unconscious realm where we hide our talents, dreams, and our long lost memories. This is why Socrates has provided forecasting that is even original.
So I have taken a different approach. Socrates is NOT a one-dimensional neural net. Don’t worry. It will not suddenly come alive and decide to wipe out the inferior species known as humans. But the world Schwab envisions is not real. It only leads, not to the critical ability of creativity, which exists only in freedom, but to oppression and conformity precisely as the result of Marx’s experiment we call socialism/communism. Communism collapsed because it suppressed creativity. That also necessitates FREEDOM.
QUESTION: Marty, Socrates correctly projected the claimed Citibank manipulation of Monday in Sweden. It wrote: “The strongest target in the Daily array is Mon. 2nd for a turning point ahead, at least on a closing basis. There are 4 Daily Directional Change targets starting from Mon. 2nd to Fri. 6th suggesting a choppy coiling period for 3 Days. I”
How did Socrates project this and then showed it would bounce with another Directional Change? Was it really a manipulation? Citigroup did confirm that it played a role in yesterday’s flash crash. They released a statement: “This morning one of our traders made an error when inputting a transaction. Within minutes, we identified the error and corrected it.” The exchange refused to cancel the trades. This is confusing for it was not beyond the parameters that Socrates laid out including the technical analysis.
Any clarification would be interesting.
All the best
JM
ANSWER: I understand that the common definition of manipulation is simply a big move. To me, this was NOT a manipulation. My definition is moving a market COUNTER-TREND which this was not. Yes, Socrates projected that Monday the 2nd would be a low and that the Directional Changes back to back suggested it would be more of a knee-jerk reaction rather than a change in trend. The array showed the biggest target would be Monday, May 2nd.
There had been low volume. Thus, if it was a mistake, a smaller amount of selling could have a greater impact. However, it still did not move beyond the parameters of the trend as pre-defined by Socrates. Even the technical analysis that the computer does itself showed that this was NOT outside the norm. I appreciate that everyone will jump on this as a “manipulation” but that is just not the case. Manipulation is something that MUST simply be COUNTER-TREND. Making a market move in the direction of the trend in a spike manner is NOT a manipulation. At best, this is ENHANCING a move within its trend. But it is not a manipulation.
Posted originally on the conservative three house on April 13, 2022 | Sundance
Fed Governor Christopher Waller appeared on CNBC to announce we have reached peak inflation, and things will moderate from here. All of these fed moves are political moves, not monetary policy-based moves. Here’s the thing they will never admit to the non-institutional investor.
The fed has been painfully slow to raise interest rates on purpose. They did not make a mistake. The reason for their delay is they needed to wait for the beginning of the first 2021 inflation wave to cycle through before they raised interest rates. It’s a game of mirrors that almost no one sees. WATCH:
The rate of inflation will drop once the statistical year-over-year comparisons reach the same moment in the prior year. The fed will raise interest rates in May and then use the June inflation rate decline as a false talking point to highlight how their policy is working. They wait for May, because they need to wait for the calendar, nothing else. Inflation is measured as the percentage of change from the prior year. By waiting until the inflation is measured against the first wave of rising prices, it will give the illusion of a decline in inflation.
So that’s why they waited. But here’s the worse part….
All of these U.S. Fed monetary policymakers are in full ideological alignment with the global and central bankers. They are all following the same Build Back Better agenda and policy instructions.
All of bankers know the shift from ‘dirty energy’, coal, oil, natural gas, will create inflation. All of the bankers know there is no economic bridge within the plan to shift from oil to their unicorn dust. All of the bankers know that shutting down oil exploration as a matter of western unified policy will, as a factual matter, destroy the economic systems that rely on energy….. which is to say everything.
All of these bankers know the severity of the inflation crisis this energy shift creates. None of them do not know.
Everything they are doing is coordinated to assist the climate change agenda.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 13, 2022 | Sundance
he “Producer Price Index” (PPI) is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate (processing), and then Final (to wholesale). Today, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) released March price data [Available Here] showing a dramatic 11.2% increase year-over-year in Final Demand products at the wholesale level. This is the fifth consecutive month with the highest rate of inflation the PPI ever recorded.
The single month increase in wholesale prices of 2.3% was driven by inflation built into the supply chain at every level that shows up in the final wholesale price. Those price increases then get passed along to consumers along with the additional costs for warehousing, transportation and delivery. I modified Table-A (FINAL DEMAND) to take out some of the noise.
Wholesale prices of goods jumped 2.3 percent in March, and the wholesale price of food products jumped 2.4 percent. The total demand inflation compared to last year is 11.2 percent, the highest rate ever recorded since the PPI tracking was first started.
The total final demand monthly calculation (1.4%) is lower than the final demand goods (2.3%), because final demand services are offsetting. You may remember the discussion/analysis about prices beginning to stabilize after this month due to a contraction in demand for goods and services. I see support for that thesis within this data.
The three phases of wholesale product creation: (1) origination, (2) intermediate, and (3) final, cycle through the economic analysis in reverse chronological order. Roughly speaking, the flow of goods quantified is done in 30-day sequences. Final demand this month is comparing to final demand in March 2021. The intermediate demand goods this month will become final demand goods next month (April).
The rate of inflation behind this set of final demand goods is beginning to soften. See Table B, Intermediate goods. Again, modified to take out the noise:
While the yearly comparison for both processed and unprocessed intermedia goods is eye dropping, in the unprocessed intermediate demand goods, we are starting to see a lessening of monthly price increases.
In essence, prices have been rising so fast and for such an extended period of time, that we are now cycling through the rate of increase and starting to compare it to last year when the rate of increase was originally going high. As a consequence, the rate of price increase will likely lessen, even though the actual price may still keep climbing within the manufacturing process.
The price of raw materials, and the wholesale energy costs to process those materials into finished goods, are still rising. In addition to the consumer prices reported yesterday, this wholesale price data is showing the most recent increases (March) in fuel and transportation costs. For the next report these figures should now plateau.
♦ BOTTOM LINE – We have not yet reached PEAK INFLATION – However, the price increases from wholesalers to retailers are now at parity. The increased price of things coming into the supply chain are now at similar rates of increase when compared to the stuff on the shelves.
Inflation from field to fork is now fully matriculated and embedded in the total economy as a result of two massive price waves (July to October 2021 and November to March 2022). Those prices will never fall.
Highly consumable goods like food, fuel and energy will remain at approximately the price today for a period of around five months, then we will see the third wave kick in as the new higher harvest prices hit the processors in late summer.
The prices for non-essential durable goods, like cars, electronics, appliances etc. from this moment forth will now be determined by demand. Highly sought after goods will increase in price as more customers chase fewer products. However, ordinary or widely available durable goods will likely start to come down in price very soon as inventories climb because consumer spending has prioritized and dropped non essential goods from their shopping lists.
To put it more succinctly: The stuff we need will cost more. The stuff we don’t need will cost less.
COMMENT #1: Well, at least I got the decline accelerating in the Ruble correct and thanks to your models knew the war and commodity cycles were turning up. Getting the fundamentals correct ahead of time is a work in progress and definitely not easy.
But while watching the Ruble crashing into weakness going into the ECM, one could not reverse position and go long the RUB. Heck, nobody could even open new positions and definitely not buy the RUB. All that was allowed was closing already existing positions. And now the RUB was even removed from the trading platform altogether.
So my original trading strategy of shorting and then going long RUB got cut short and max profits throw out the window. So much for free markets.
EM
COMMENT #2: Marty you have proven your model and computer is the key to running governments for the future living with the cycle. It is easy to see why the CIA wanted your model pinpointing Ukraine almost 10 years in advance as the key spot for war. It is also interesting how others prefer not to ever mention you for your work is not opinion like everyone else. I really hope you succeed in securing Socrates for the world long-term. We all can learn so much.
All the best from Poland
and thanks for the conference that you did here in Warsaw
VA
REPLY: The free markets are not so free. During the Civil War, even President Lincoln went after trading gold and argued those people were making money off of every battle. The EU wanted to take trading the Euro away from London because of BREXIT. The people running these governments will NEVER honor the free markets when they go against them.
Yes, it was very nice to meet everyone in Warsaw. I had not been there before. I am doing my best to make sure Socrates continues beyond my shelf life. The problem is that the world is run by the seat of its pants and it is always based upon bias, prejudice, and power-plays driven by ego. I think some people just need to have an enemy and no matter what changes, they ignore that to keep the hatred ongoing.
There are people who still call China Communist even though there is private ownership which is the opposite of communism. They will continue to hate China no matter what and that in turn only invokes a response to counter that trend. Biases like that prevent us from ever moving forward and society is at times like a scratched record playing the same track over and over again.
QUESTION #1: Marty; Long-time reader, pro member. First of all, thank you for confirming suspicions from my youth that there are cycles everywhere and for expanding the ideas enabling me to see that everything is connected. I agree w/ you that the financial center of the world is headed back to China. My question, however, is this. China is currently undergoing its own economic problems in banking and real estate putting pressure on the populace and hence, upon the CCP. What does Socrates say China will look like come 2032+? How will the Chinese society change and how will this change influence the world at large post-2032?
VT
QUESTION #2: Marty, I am flabbergasted that you said in 2013 that Ukraine was the place this all begins. Your long-range forecasts are beyond what anyone has ever done. I find it appalling that these sites like ______ post everyone but you because they are closet gold bugs. This is about helping society understand how the world works for which you should get the Noble Prize. These sites ignore you because they too are no different than the people they claim to oppose. They only preach their own theories.
My question is, have you made any progress in understanding how your model makes these forecasts nobody else can do?
HF
ANSWER: I believe the world is so COMPLEX that there is no possibility of humans analyzing and forecasting the future from a personal gut feeling on a consistent basis. Yes, there are people who hate me because they do not like a forecast. They are just fools and you cannot ever win an argument with a fool. Life is all about keeping an open mind and learning everything we can. Perhaps that is what people call an old soul.
It is true that you see advertisements of some guy who claims he called some crash. One forecast can be nothing but dumb luck the same as a broken clock is still correct twice each day. I have been pursuing this phenomenon of trying to understand how the world REALLY works for decades. I too have found it fascinating how the model can make so many forecasts to the very day – not just one and it is all mathematical which cannot be fudged. I believe this simply reveals that there is a hidden order to everything. It reminds me of the conflict I saw in school between Physics class and Economics. The first said there is nothing random and the latter said everything was random so we can eliminate the business cycle and prevent depressions and recession. Physics was correct – economics was wrong.
“The War Cycle turns up next year. Because Kiev was the first capital of Russia, this is really important. Ukraine is between Russia and Europe and is being torn apart. Russia’s pride is on the chopping block and this is the real center of the struggle for Russia.”
If you watch Ukraine of Fire, it will help you better understand this critical crossroads that will bring the world to WWIII. Perhaps you will understand that there is a lot more to Ukraine than the fake news presents. We face a crisis where there are people who once again think they know better than everyone else and that they alone have the answer as to how the world should work. They are the typical academic economists who think that the business cycle is nonsense and that they can temper, control, and manipulate society into a perfect state of harmony.
What 2032 represents is the complete collapse in government precisely as we saw with the American Revolution which brought the downfall of the monarchy. This was the birth of republics once again and we will move back to a new form of government that may be hard to visualize. The current system of socialism is collapsing. Politicians only know how to bribe people for votes rather than present themselves as efficient managers of the state. Socialism has allowed the invasion of all of our rights. They can put in a billionaire’s tax and everyone will cheer. You then must file revealing your wealth to prove you are not a billionaire. Every regulative imposition on one group necessitates the same control on everyone else.
I hope that when the system falls like a tree being sawed off at its base, it will fall in the direction of democracy rather than a republic. But all forms of government will be confronted with a new wave of change.
The Federal Open Market Committee plans to taper its asset purchasing program by $30 billion per month. Starting in January, the central bank will begin buying $60 billion in bonds monthly, citing “inflation developments and the further improvement in the labor market.”
As for interest rates, the Fed is considering as many as three rate hikes in 2020, followed by two additional hikes in 2024. This comes after the Fed artificially lowered rates to near zero for the longest amount of time in the history of the Federal Reserve.
“With inflation having exceeded 2 percent for some time, the committee expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the committee’s assessments of maximum employment,” the central bank stated. Unemployment reached a post-pandemic low of 4.2% last month, but nearly 7 million Americans are still unemployed. “Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation,” the statement continued. Now, the central bank believes inflation will somehow reach 2.6% in 2020, with core inflation dropping to 2.7%.
The central bank sees reduced GDP growth this year, dropping the forecast to 5.5% from 5.9%. GDP in 2022 is now estimated to reach 4%, and 2.2% in 2023.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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