Judicial Tyranny & Why We Need Strict Construction


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COMMENT:  The Insanity of the EU Bureaucrats and the European Court of Justice (ECJ – The Vnuk Case Summary: In August 2007 Slovenian Damijan Vnuk working on a farm was injured when the farmer who was parking his tractor and trailer in a barn accidentally reversed into the ladder Vnuk was up on. Vnuk sued for compensation to the amount of €15,944.10. Slovenian courts rejected his claims by saying that the tractor was at the time not being used as a method of transport but one of propulsion to manoeuvre the trailer attached. The case was then referred to the ECJ. In September 2014, the ECJ ruled in Vnuks favour interpreting the European Motor Insurance Directive to mean that any motor vehicle must have third party insurance regardless of whether they are on private or public land. In framing their judgment the ECJ (whose decision can not be appealed) extended the scope to the point where many other activities including motorcycle and motorsports are now affected, and because the ECJ is the highest court in the European Union there is no possibility of appeal. This now means in theory that any motorized vehicle used on any type of private or public land must be covered by third party insurance. As well as affecting all motorsport vehicles, it could affect electric bicycles, sit-on lawnmowers, golf buggies, mobility scooters, segways and even motorised ride-on children’s toys. The seriousness of the situation prompted the UK’s Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA) in December 2016 to issue a stark warning that British motorsport could end due to the EU ruling.

KMS

Antonin ScaliaREPLY: This is how judges seriously alter the entire economy. They make decisions that are then so broadly applied that they really change everything and defeat democracy. In the USA, Congress NEVER made taxes apply to worldwide income. That was simply the Supreme Court ruling that Congress did not exempt it so they must have included it. This type of interpretation seriously disrupts everything. This is what Justice Scalia was against and he employed what is called “STRICT CONSTRUCTION” meaning if it does not expressly authorize something, then the court has no power to expand the interpretation. This is what the ECJ has just done and it will drastically alter the European economy compelling everyone to get insurance on everything.

The judiciary MUST be stopped. It must be restricted to Strict Construction, for otherwise, judges get to create laws based solely upon what they think. This eliminates any possible democratic process. It is effectively Judicial Tyranny. If a law does not expressly apply to something, it should not be interpreted to apply by judges. Put this on the list of structural reforms we MUST incorporate after the Crash and Burn.

Unless Healthcare is Revamped – Unemployment Will Rise


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Healthcare costs have continued to outpace inflation and just about everything else within the economy. Generally speaking, prices rise when demand increases relative to supply. The scheme of Obamacare was to force the youth to buy healthcare they did not need to pay for everyone else. The fines have been less than the costs so many of the youth just pay the fine. Forcing people to buy insurance to artificially lower the costs failed because healthcare is no different and has risen, not declined, with the false rise in demand.

Additional forces have also been contributing namely political decisions from Obamacare, additional taxes, and increased regulations have combined to impact healthcare costs. There has also been the notorious increase in lawsuits which influence the cost of malpractice insurance for medical practitioners forcing costs to also rise. Congress would never introduce Tort Reform because there are too many lawyers who would see their big paydays vanish.

McDonald’s is starting to replace people with auto-self-serving. Now Wendy’s is doing the same thing. Wendy’s plans to install self-ordering kiosks at 1,000 stores by the end of 2017. McDonald’s already beat them to the punch but we are witnessing this trend in many other businesses as well, such as movie theaters and airports. Corporate costs will decline with robots and automated order machines contributing to increasing corporate profits since they are not lowering prices. American Airlines is really anti-consumer. They charge $200 to speak someone to change your ticket when the ticket cost is even just $174. Healthcare costs rising faster than everything else will force companies to abandon workers whenever possible and this is impacting both manufacture as well as services.

So, what is the issue? Is it really just hourly wages? No! Any business with more than 25 employees are being hit with rising healthcare costs that amount to a monopoly from which the only possible relief is to eliminate people. Many small companies have tried to pay healthcare and have been forced to keep raising the deductible. Effectively, healthcare is devolving into catastrophic coverage. Many doctors are refusing to take people on government programs including Medicare because the government cheats them and is slow to pay.

Bill Gates may have been great at creating Microsoft, but when it comes to economics and law, he is off in the Cloud lost in his mind. What he has come out as a solution is to tax machines as if they are people? Gates said, “You’d think we’d tax the robot at a similar level” as humans and then the taxes a company pays would support society? So we become a world of couch potatoes?

Just maybe, we stop the subsidizing of healthcare, introduce Tort Reform, and replace government workers with robots to eliminate taxation on the people. That would be one alternative if we are looking at this new future world. In places like Greece, it is the government that accounts for 40% of GDP. In the USA, Fiscal Year 2017 is estimated at a total of all US government spending, federal, state, and local, to be $7.04 trillion. This will be 36% of GDP.

The US National Defense will be 4% of GDP while government pensions will be 7% plus government healthcare will be 8% compared to welfare is only 2%. Even education is 6% and that is highly questionable for it is really subsidizing the socialist philosophy. Our problem is government workers – not welfare or even military.

We need robots to replace government.

Market Talk- March 1, 2017


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It was the speech that most claimed lacked substance that just did exactly what most thought it couldn’t – rally global stock markets. Yes, Japan’s Biz Cap-Ex released at 3.8% compared to the previous 1.3%; that woke markets, then Manufacturing PMI released a smidgen worse but when the JPY started to fall, everyone blamed Trump. The fact that the market has re-priced a March hike from 50% to 80% hardly made the pages. The Nikkei loved  the weaker Yen especially moved were key exporters all adding to the strong 1.5% rally. Shanghai and Hang Seng were small better bid (bit disappointing as China PMI better than expected) but in late US trading the futures market have added an additional 1% across the board.

I find it quite amusing that the pages announcing in Asian time zone “no substance”, lacked detail and disappointing – suddenly claim that $1tln will help infrastructure and defence stocks. Europe benefitted both on data and action as fresh money finally found its way into the market. All core indices saw gains of around 2% whilst both the Euro and GBP traded weaker. Mixed bag of tricks on the data front but probably a tad better for Germany which did see a small sell-off in bunds but then treasuries were down nearly 2pts so probably not that exciting really!

The US market could not wait to open with a 100 point gain seen in the opening minutes. By lunchtime time we were over 300 points higher, breaking both the psychological 21k for the DOW and the 2400 level for the S+P. Data was mixed initially but finished better (ISM 56 forecast was released at 57.7) with most talking FED. Towards the close we are pricing in a 80% chance of a move in March but many may wish to wait Janet Yellen when she speaks Friday. Given the DXY recent performance (now around 101.75), the rise of the S+P (+7% YTD) and 2yr yields their highest in nearly 8yrs the chances are this could be the start of the FED back in play.

2’s closed 1.28% (+5bp), 10’s at 2.46% (+10bp), Bunds 0.0.28% (+8bp) closes US/Germany spread at +218bp. France 0.91% (+3bp), Italy 2.11% (+4bp; can you really believe Italy trades 35bp through the USA!!!), Greece 6.75% (-22bp), Turkey 10.66% (+7bp), Portugal 3.89% (+6bp) and finally Gilts 1.19% (+4bp).

Key Interview – Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Talks To Neil Cavuto…


Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin gives Fox Business News’ Neil Cavuto an interview to discuss President Trump’s timeline for the ObamaCare repeal, budget and tax reform. The interview is int…

Source: Key Interview – Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Talks To Neil Cavuto…

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Something’s Not Right


Tyler Durden's picture

It all made sense earlier (to those attempting to write the narrative explaining why The Dow gapped open to 21,000) but the last couple of hours have seen an odd decoupling between the USD Index and bonds (and a recoupling of the USD Index and stocks). The question is – what happens next?

Who’s right? Bonds or the dollar?

 

Gold is rising as the USD drops (no decoupling there)

 

And have stocks run their course?

 

Still with options buyers surging into S&P 2,600 strike calls for December, what could go wrong

Dramatic Aerial Footage Shows What The Oroville Dam Looks Like Now


Tyler Durden's picture

Via Daniel Lang of SHTFPlan.com,

Earlier this month, we all heard the news that the Oroville Dam was damaged, and that thousands of residents living in its shadow would have to be evacuated. Fortunately the dam held, and the residents of Oroville were able to return to their homes. For the most part the story has since faded from the news. However, the damage remains.

When the crisis was at its peak, you may have heard about what specifically went wrong with the dam. The main spillway was damaged when the dam operators attempted to release some water to control the depth of Lake Oroville. Essentially, a crater unexpectedly emerged in the middle of the spillway, and when the water flowed through that hole, it eroded the soil beneath. So the dam operators decided to let the water flow over an emergency spillway instead. But as the emergency spillway began to erode as well, an evacuation order was issued.

But hearing that doesn’t really do it any justice. To really appreciate the magnitude of what occurred that day, you have to see it with your own eyes. And now you can.

On Monday the California Department of Water Resources stopped the flow of water down the spillway so that they could assess the damage. Here’s what they found:

I have a feeling that this isn’t going to be fixed for a long time.

We need a New Alliance!


During WW II America, Brittan, Russia and the French resistance fought the Axis powers lead my Germany and totally destroyed them. What we need now is to save Western Civilization once more from the invasion of Islam which is in the process of bringing 5,000 years of progress to a screeching halt throwing us into a new Dark Age.  So some strange reason the left or the progressive movement as they prefer to be called have aligned themselves with the the Medina faction of Islam (Jihadists) in there attempt to set up a one world government under the principles of Marxism.  Trump had now correctly defined the obvious enemy as Radical Islamic terrorism he will now need to bring in the other half which is lead my George Soros with is Open Society movement which is Marxism; BTW Karl Marx was German.

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If Le Pen can win in the French election than an alliance of America, Britain, Russia and France is possible and we could save Western Civilization once more.  Russia does have clean up to do but the Russian people are good and even Putin could see the advantage of this new alliance.   I hope trump can see this and put something like this together; as this not inconsistent with the MAGA movement.

French Presidential Candidate Francois Fillon Anticipated To Make Noon (Local Time) Announcement….


French Presidential candidate, Francois Fillon, has called for a 12:00pm (local time – 6:00am U.S. Eastern Time zone) press conference.  This comes a day after he cancelled a trip to the annu…

Source: French Presidential Candidate Francois Fillon Anticipated To Make Noon (Local Time) Announcement….

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Why Do Majority of Fund Managers Cannot Beat the S&P500?


Trader

QUESTION: Marty; The Mises Institute said “Martin Armstrong is one of the most famous economic forecasters alive” and others call you the legend. I have watched your numbers and timing targets. I bought the Gold Report in 2016 and to watch gold peak exactly to the day you highlighted years ago and in so many other markets, you have proved your point. This is humanly impossible so you must have discovered a model that reveals the regularity of everything showing there is no such thing as randomness. My question is simply this. The majority of fund managers could not even beat the S&P500. Many funds had their worst year since 2009.  I made more money in the account I traded using your forecast than I did in the funds I gave to managers. Would you consider publishing funds that use you so we would know who to trust since you are not interested in going back to funds management?

PG

ANSWER: We are considering that. As 2016 began, USA Today reported that 66% of fund managers could not match the S&P500. Back in 2014, 86% of investment managers lost money. Studies back in 2013 showed the same general ratio that only 24% of active mutual fund managers outperform the market index. Last year, 2016 was the WORST year for fund managers picking stocks. The London FT reported that active fund managers last September were lagging behind the stock market. Stockpickers in their semi-annual survey found that 90% of all managers fell short of benchmark.

This is a HUGE problem. The crisis in funds management illustrates what I have been warning about. OPINION is your worst enemy. I try on this blog to cover the world range of topics. To be a good hedge fund manager. the first thing you MUST do is be on top of everything unfolding in the world ALL the time. The tsunami waves of market corrections and breakouts ALWAYS unfold from an international perspective. Even the US media never really talked about BREXIT until about 10 days before it even took place. You cannot successfully invest or manage money and be oblivious to world trends.

We will consider licensing our model to firms for public use.

Small Business was the Backbone of the Economy


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QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; My family have been lifelong democrats and operated a small local business. We were never in the multi-million dollar class, but always found ourselves considered to the the unholy rich. I remember Joe Biden saying that 90% of small business made under $100,000. Those are most likely individuals and not small business who actually hire people. Obamacare devastated our net bottom line and I have seen the light. You wrote before that small business was the backbone of the economy. Why have the democrats always been against small business?

Curious on your take

Tax Defining RichANSWER: The problem stems from the fact that to collect money, the top bracket for income tax has progressively been lowered. Back at the time of World War I, the definition of the rich was someone who earned $2 million. Considering a car was $300, that was a lot of money. Then for World War II, the definition was raised to $5 million. There were songs like We’re in the money, we’re in the money; from the Gold Diggers of 1933, reflecting the boom times. The government even printed $10,000 bills.

The rhetoric has been Marxist since the Great Depression, but they call it “progressive” or “liberal”. The definition has changed dramatically so $250,000 is now the equivalent of being super rich during the Great Depression earning $5 million.

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Today, small businesses make up: 99.7% of U.S. employer firms, 64% of net new private-sector jobs, 49.2% of private-sector employment, 42.9% of private-sector payroll, 46% of private-sector output, 43% of high-tech employment, and 98% of firms exporting goods. Joe Biden’s justification that the Democrats do not tax small business is just not true. What he counts as small business is self-employed which can be anything from a handyman to jockey racing horses freelance. That is substantially different from small business that actually employs people.

U.S. Census information from 2008 identified a total of 27,281,452 businesses in the United States. The number of businesses operated by proprietors with no employees numbered 21,351,320, which were the self-employed individuals. The Small Business Administration defines small business as fewer than 500 employees – which to me is not small. Add to this the number of businesses having fewer than 500 employees and the number of small businesses comes to 27,262,983. Now, let’s subtract this number from the total number of businesses identified by the census. This produces the number of businesses with more than 500 employees amounts to 18,586. Small business amounts to 99.7% of businesses in the United States.

Big corporations only employ about 38% of the private sector workforce while small businesses employs 53% of the workforce. In fact, over 99% of employing organizations are small businesses and more than 95% of these businesses have fewer than 10 employees. As I stated above, small businesses accounted for 64% of net new jobs created. In fact, many of these new jobs are also new companies. The startup rate in 2010 was the highest it has been in 15 years, but that is because 60% of graduate from college cannot find employment in the field that they paid for a degree. Many are FORCED to start their own business typically one-man bands. The rise in startups is because there has been shrinking roles available in big business as many are replaced by technology.

Small business ALWAYS grow faster creating more jobs than big business with 500 employees or more. In fact, historically, small businesses grow faster at a rate of 3.4% compared to big business which grows on average only 1.3%. Over the years, I have noted why big business slowly die. The boards become dominated by lawyers and accountants and lose touch with entrepreneurship as well as creativity – i.e. Steve Jobs.

The government always focuses on big business because they have the lobbyists who fund campaigns.  During the 2007-2009 Crisis, neither the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds nor industry bailouts specifically helped small businesses. In fact, slightly more than 20% of the small businesses get loans from banks and do so only with collateral. Therefore, big bailouts and TARP never “stimulate” the economy. Democrats always hate tax cuts and call it trickle down economics. But when it comes to bailouts, they only focus on the rich because they donate to their campaigns. Democrats talk out of both sides of their mouth. If you want to “stimulate” the economy, directly address small business – NOT the big companies who will not hire anyhow.

Then there is a huge divide between big business and small business. Big corporations are able to claim health insurance policies for employees as a business expense. Employees pay for those policies with pre-tax dollars. A self-employed business owner could not deduct his health insurance. There was a one-year self-employed health insurance tax deduction in the Small Business Jobs Act, but the Democrats would not allow that to be extended.Small businesses who work from home are entitled to take a home office deduction, but some 60% never deduct it for it often results in an audit and the deduction is notoriously difficult to calculate and thus a grey area the IRS loves to attack.

The bottom line is that Democrats rant and rave about the rich, but when it comes to helping small business, they screw them all they can and help big business because they donate for their campaigns. That’s the simple truth.