Interview: Gold Surges Between War-Driven Inflation Dynamics


Posted originally on Jan 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |

Interview with GoldSeek Radio:

Head of Armstrong Economics, Martin Armstrong, reviews charts of the major indexes in real-time, noting “2024 could be a chaotic year.”

– Interest rates rise during boom periods.

“Yeah, I think people have to understand that the vast majority of analysis out there is all domestic. They’re just calling for the Fed and I think so many of them are talking about a major crash in 2024. What they never do is look outside the country. And honestly, if you look at the 3 indexes look at the Dow, the S&P, and then the NASDAQ, you’ll see the Dow leading.

And that is basically showing you that what’s going on here is international capital inflows. I mean, the more it’s getting crazy for wars just about everywhere. From Asia, you’re looking at the Middle East. You’re looking at Europe. We have probably more institutional clients than anybody in the world and they’re all starting to wake up a little bit and hedging their bets and they’re moving money to the States. That’s why the Dow has been rising, more so than you see. We have probably more institutional clients than anybody in the world and they’re all starting to wake up a little.

… but then again you have people just looking at the Fed and talking about ‘Oh, transparency.’ And is they only ever keep talking about old defense, going to ‘Lower rates, lower rates, lower rates.’

If you really look at it, objectively, interest rates always rise during boom periods, and they decline during recessions and depressions. We are looking at increased inflation, probably into 2028 caused by shortages and war. But you’re looking at a declining economic growth, so that ends up being more like the 1970s…and you’re looking there at what we call “Stagflation” where the inflation rate will be higher than economic growth.

– Increased inflation could erupt due to supply shortages and skirmishes.
– Stagflation similar to the 70’s could soon come to the domestic economy.

“That was basically caused by OPEC raising the price of oil dramatically and that created a cost-push inflation. So everybody’s costs were rising dramatically. Anything that had to do with plastic, went up dramatically and that created eventually the inflationary boom between 1976 going into 1980. As for gold rose to $875, etc…I think gold was about a $100 in 1976 and it rose to about $400 but that was by December 1979, the last six weeks of the rally, which peaked in 1980 on January 21st. So from December to January 21st, that’s when Russia invaded Afghanistan. So it was the geopolitical stuff that took gold from $400 to $875. So it’s important to understand inflation is not the major driving power but inflation when war is around – that’s what broke Bretton Woods…it was the Vietnam War.”

– Funds may be flowing into the blue-chip Dow Jones 30 stocks from global unrest.
– Geopolitical opinion and commentary.

Death by Taxation for Gig Economy


Posted originally on Jan 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Gig economy

The gig economy has exploded in recent years as people seek additional income to keep up with the rising living costs. The government has been attempting to exploit these workers for additional taxes for years. A new law implemented by the Biden Administration will force some businesses to classify gig workers as employees, raising costs for everyone involved.

According to a paper published by the University of Chicago, during the first year of the pandemic, there were 2.1 million new gig workers, and in 2021, an additional 3.1 million people took on gig work.  Upwork found that 36% of the American workforce has been freelancing during the pandemic, which is an increase of 2 million over 2019. Nearly 2 million Americans drive for one of more rideshare services, such as Uber and Lyft. Reuters now estimates the number of gig workers in America to be closer to 3.4 million.

WEF Amozon Delivery

It costs companies about 30% more to hire someone as an employee rather than an independent contractor. There are state laws regarding independent contract or gig work, but this is the largest piece of legislation to be passed on the federal level.

The legislation is presented in a way that will protect workers from the big bad companies. In truth, the law will raise taxes on these workers who took on these low-skilled positions for extra income. This will prevent some from, say, working for both Lyft and Uber. Trade group Chamber of Progress believes that reclassification will result in $31 billion in lost revenue.

Minimum Wage.meme_

Companies will simply limit their workforce by necessity. When Governor Gavin Newsom approved raising California’s minimum wage to $20 under Bill 1228, countless people found themselves without a job. Pizza Hut fired over 2,000 delivery drivers right before the change was implemented. California Pizza Hut and PacPizza franchises eliminated delivery driver positions entirely.

So, the kid delivering pizzas a few nights a week during college will miss out on that opportunity because the government wants to tax him as an employee. “Gig” is simply a temporary contract intended to produce supplemental income. These positions were never meant to be full-time career paths. The government should explore why so many people are seeking multiple jobs instead of preventing people from seeking out additional sources of revenue.

Poland’s New Govt Pro-War & Pro-EU


Posted originally on Jan 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Poland 2024 Election

It’s a real crime what’s happening to the Polish people at the hands of what many see as traitors who are taking directives from foreign organizations that will take Poland into a disastrous war with Russia. Poland’s right-wing, now opposition, has called on its supporters to protest against this new pro-European Union government. Unfortunately, our political models on Poland warned that with eight years (8.6) under the Law and Justice party, they would lose, and the shift would be to the globalist agenda in last October’s parliamentary elections. The protest was called for the same day when the Supreme Court was to rule on the validity of the election in the first place.

Poland ECM 1989 2041

Based on the ECM for Poland, we can see that October 26, 2023, was a significant turning point. Unfortunately, this aligned with our war cycles and then turned into 2028. The dollar avoided any sell signals against the zloty at the end of 2023. You have overhead resistance at 4.02 and 4.20. If the low of 2023 now holds, this does not look good for Poland going forward. April will be the critical target in 2024, and we see the danger of higher volatility with a Panic Cycle in October.

Why We Should Not Blame the Federal Reserve


Posted originally on Jan 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Fed Ship in STorm

One piece of analysis commonly misconstrued is the Federal Reserve’s role in the nation’s economic health. Even those who have the ability to piece together other variables that often go unnoticed commonly point their finger at the Federal Reserve. No one is factoring in the largest driver of inflation – WAR – nor are they factoring in the three main pillars of government debauchery (war, taxation, government spending) that the Fed cannot control.

Federal Reserve 12 Branches

They never look at the history of central banks and how Congress has been manipulating the law to alter the Fed’s purpose. If there was a single interest rate and one policy set in Washington, why do we even have branches of the Fed if they no longer act independently? When the Fed was created, the branches managed internal domestic capital flows. Each branch was independent, and they would lower or raise the interest rate in their jurisdiction depending on the flow of money. Too much cash? They lowered the rate. Not enough cash? They raised it. This was all before Keynesian Economics when the interest rate became the tool to manipulate our demand.

The San Francisco earthquake of 1906 created the Panic of 1907, which caused capital to rush from East to West. This created a shortage of cash in New York and led to bank failures. Hence, the Federal Reserve was created with branches to manipulate the internal capital flows – not the Quantity of Money Theory or the demand of the people.

Federal Reserve Restructure 1935
Roosevelt Baking Cartoon

Roosevelt usurped all the independence of the Fed and created a Washington monopoly to push his socialist agenda into place. We are hearing the same pitch of equality once again from Biden. The government is supposed to be separate from the Federal Reserve, but the president appoints the chair. The formerly independent central bank that was owned by the bankers to prevent the misuse of taxpayer funds is now under control by the banks only in theory; the reins of power are political.

The Federal Reserve failed to produce inflation while engaging in QE between 2008 and 2019. Most analysts ignore that entirely. If the Fed issued $1 trillion and buys in US Treasuries, I hate to tell you, but it would have ZERO impact. Why? Because debt today is simply cash that pays interest. Once upon a time, you could not borrow against government debt. Thus, it was deemed non-inflationary as long as it could not be used as money. Today, you post bills as collateral to trade futures. The old theories no longer exist in this new, strange world we live in. Hence, all the QE was merely swapping the debt for cash.

Also, consider where the Fed purchases its debt and who purchases US debt. China, for example, is no longer buying US debt due to US-China government relations that the Fed has absolutely no control over. Then, say China sold its debt for cash. The dollar would go offshore, and the domestic money supply would NOT increase. There is a lot more to this game than the simplistic analysis that leads to brainwashing the financial community and investors.

OldTheories Theory Myth r

Jerome Powell has no power over fiscal spending or the deficit. Central banks everywhere are trapped. The central banks in Europe are in FAR worse shape right now. When Powell stood before Congress and subtly criticized the Biden Administration by calling their constant spending “unsustainable,” he was attempting to explain that the central bank could not overpower the government here. The central bank can create elastic money, and it will return to doing so. Private capital is fleeing government debt on a global level.

In the end, the globalist agenda is to default on all national debts, and they will no longer need to bail out the bankers. Welcome to the Decline & Fall of Western Civilization.

Tucker Carlson Outlines the Farmers Protest, the Biggest Protests in German History


Posted originally on the CTH on January 11, 2024 | Sundance

Nice to see Tucker Carlson bringing attention to the biggest protests in modern German history.  Eva Vlaardingerbroek left the Netherlands to provide support for the farmers in Germany.   WATCH:

BIG STORY BACKGROUND HERE ]

MASSIVE PUSHBACK – German Railway Workers Join Farmer Protest – German and Polish Truckers Providing Additional Support


Posted originally on the CTH on January 10, 2024 | Sundance

Keep watching this story as much as possible folks. It might be difficult to find the details because Western corporate media do not want to cover the specifics, but the pushback deep inside the EU is well organized, planned and strong.

On day one, the German farmers began their protest, and began blocking transport hubs, main arteries and government buildings around the country.

On day #2, a large number of Polish truckers crossed the border to provide additional support and block the roads and border crossings.

Today, on day #3 of the protest, the German railway workers have joined.

You might remember the “solidarity” movement from the 1980s when the general working class in Poland took to the streets and triggered mass protests – eventually forcing the collapse of the governing structure. Well, here we are 40 years later, and a multi-nation force is aligned in the effort to duplicate the outcome. This is massive pushback against the globalist and WEF system.

The railway strike forces transport companies to use trucking.  The truckers are supporting the farmers.  The farmers are blocking the roads.  This is a multidimensional approach, well thought out and well planned.  Do not disregard what is taking place and understand there are many EU politicians watching closely. Germany is by far the largest economy in the EU.

[MEANA] – […] One of the key elements of the protests involves farmers organizing blockades on motorways and participating in slow-moving convoys. The discontent within the farming community was previously demonstrated in a mass protest held in Berlin in mid-December, prompting the government to make partial concessions. In response to the outcry, Berlin agreed to retain the preferential tax treatment of agricultural vehicles and postponed the cuts to diesel tax breaks until 2026.

Despite these concessions, farmers argue that the government’s measures are insufficient, leading to the announcement of an ‘Action Week’ featuring daily protests nationwide, scheduled from January 8. The farmers, represented by Joachim Rukwied, head of the farmers association DBV, insist on a complete reversal of the proposed cuts without any conditions.

Rukwied anticipates widespread participation, with tens of thousands of tractors converging at rallies across Germany. (more)

GERMANY – Nationwide strikes brought German transport to a near standstill Wednesday, with railway workers on a three-day stoppage and farmers on tractors blocking autobahns in a bitter protest over subsidy cuts.

The ill-tempered sector disputes mark the start of what is expected to be a challenging year for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s unwieldy three-way government as it struggles with a weak economy and sinking popularity.

The GDL train drivers union called the strike on cargo as well as passenger routes after talks with public rail operator Deutsche Bahn hit an impasse. The company said 80 percent of its long-distance trains weren’t running.

Deutsche Bahn warned of “massive” disruptions to service until Friday evening, urging travellers to “avoid any unnecessary journeys” during the strike.

At Berlin’s eerily deserted central station, student Philipp Kolb, 22, said the strike had complicated his travel plans.  “I was supposed to take the train to Hamburg at 6 am,” he told AFP. “Now I have to push the trip back by three hours.” However passenger Piotr Bulej said he sympathised with striking drivers in the face of high inflation eating into real wages. “People work a lot more hours with less money. The prices rise every day, every week,” he said. “One has to protest, one has to say that.” ‘Continue the fight’. (more)

GERMANY – The nationwide blockade being launched by angry German farmers has received the support of Polish truckers, with some driving across the border to express their solidarity.

Farmers in Germany are taking their anger to the streets over the economic and agricultural policies announced by Olaf Scholz’s government.  […] The protests, expected to last for the whole week, are being supported also by truckers coming from neighboring Poland, clips and reports emerging from social media suggest. (more)

Misplaced corrective action, regardless of motivation, is neither prudent nor wise.  This approach by the blue collar and white collar middle class is EXACTLY THE RIGHT APPROACH.   This is the way to bring the elite ruling class to their knees.  This is what they fear:

We are the workforce.

We are the backbone of industry, the people who keep it all functioning, the farmers, truckers, builders, diggers and blue-collar workforce that keeps everything functioning.

We are the people they will never fully control. We speak in languages they do not understand, and we absorb targeted ridicule as fuel.

We are the movers of goods, the truckers, the farmers, the nameless people behind the skilled trades that keep what they call American society moving.

We are the people who grow the food, pick the food, transport the food, stock the food, cook the food and facilitate the life they live.

We are a visible, yet disregarded, insurgent force within their sphere of life that is never considered, yet we control the outcomes of every moment they value.

We pick up the trash, answer the phones, run cables to their devices, mow their lawns, solve their problems, control the flow of essential services and keep our heads below the radar.

We are the majority.

We are a self-reliant, freedom loving, normally peaceful and God-fearing assembly.

We drive them to their destination; we are comfortably out of mind until needed, and yet we are irreplaceable for the things they require.

We are armed with gloves, tractors, trucks, tools, hammers, pens, rulers, mice, pickup trucks, laptops, post-it notes, stickers and alternate forms of messaging that circumvent the control mechanisms deployed to create our silence.

We are inside every facility, every institution, every meeting, every moment of their existence – and we notice everything.

We have eyes of mice and ears of elephants. We are there when they do not expect, and we melt away before they notice our appearance.

We are smart, strategic, highly intelligent and carry a brutally obvious and pragmatic common sense that finds optimal solutions to everything.

We identify our tribe immediately and without conversation.

We see what they hide, we hear what they whisper, we decipher their codes, and we understand the complexity they create in their effort to conceal.

We control the physical world that operates around every element of society, and we value real and tangible assets.

We do not sit around pontificating eloquently about philosophic nuances; we get shit done.

We are the people who facilitate their ability to take us for granted, and we do so without issue, resentment or desire for recognition.

We are optimistic, affable, kind, generous, friendly, loyal, warm and quietly spiritual in purpose.

We are polite, considerate and slow to anger.

We prefer to be left alone. However, pushed entirely far enough, decisions are reached. Right now, we are tenuously staring with deepened gaze.

We are increasingly pissed off…. Big Time!

In every town, village and hamlet we are encountering the same conversation. On every porch, in every shop, at every event, the topic is the same.

Support every effort that begins!

The Major European Protest in Germany Tomorrow


Posted originally on Jan 7, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

2024 German Protest

COMMENT: Dear Mr Armstrong

Happy New Year to you and your team from Germany. Just in case you didn‘t already know, tomorrow at 11 am is a nationwide general strike supposed to be happening as a protest to the policy of the recent government. They set up a map on GoogleMaps showing all events and where they take place, accessible under this link:

https://maps.app.goo.gl/pzUHw5bMtiuZK2TX7?g_st=i

Thanks for speaking the truth

Erik

REPLY: Yes. It will be an important event. Feel free to send photos.

He’s Baaaaack – Obama Has Deep Concerns About Biden’s Ability to Defeat Trump and Protect the Deep State System He Built


Posted originally on the CTH on January 7, 2024 | Sundance 

I think deep down all intellectually honest political researchers knew The Lightbringer could not possibly permit: (a) Joe Biden to try winning an election on his own without fraud; and (b) the scale of risk that Donald Trump represents.  There is far too much personal risk to the Obama embeds who have weaponized the systems of government.

The media are now reporting that Chicago Jesus has stepped back into the arena.

There was a report in the Washington Post outlining the Obama concerns, and NBC has confirmed some of the details. [Short Video then article]:

.

After reviewing the WaPo article, I’ll show you what I think is triggering the Lightbringer.

WASHINGTON DC – Former president Barack Obama has raised questions about the structure of President Biden’s reelection campaign, discussing the matter directly with Biden and telling the president’s aides and allies the campaign needs to be empowered to make decisions without clearing them with the White House, according to three people familiar with the conversations.

Obama grew “animated” in discussing the 2024 election and former president Donald Trump’s potential return to power, one of the people said, and has suggested to Biden’s advisers that the campaign needs more top-level decision-makers at its headquarters in Wilmington, Del. — or it must empower the people already in place. Obama has not recommended specific individuals, but he has mentioned David Plouffe, who managed Obama’s 2008 race, as the type of senior strategist needed at the Biden campaign.

Obama’s conversation with Biden on the subject took place during a private lunch at the White House in recent months, one of the people said, a meeting that has not been previously reported. Biden, who has long used Obama as a sounding board, invited his former boss to lunch, and the two discussed a range of topics including the 2024 election. (read more)

The rest of the article is blah, blah, blah… talking about David Plouffe possibly joining Team Biden to lead the reelection.   Yes, that David Plouffe.

If you have not been following CTH research and election road mapping, you might not have the accurate context for the next part.  So, a brief summary:

In 2020 in order to avoid Bernie Sanders, The Lightbringer and South Carolina’s James Clyburn agreed to merge BLM with AME. [Biden was oblivious] BLM would use George Floyd to activate action – the AME church network would use their implanted precinct captains. Chicago Jesus/Clyburn then agreed to Kamala. Shortly before Super Tuesday they told pudding brain, who had no options.  Then Obama got on the phone, organized the exit strategy for the other candidates, and made the promises of the precursory indulgences they would receive.   The bringer of all progressive enlightenment told Elizabeth Warren to stay in a little longer to ensure the Sanders (progressive) group was divided, and Super Tuesday went as planned.  That’s how 2020 rolled.  The AME team then fabricated the ballots as needed in the general.

So, what’s happened recently that has Obama triggered?

Ask James Clyburn….. WATCH:

.

Obama and Clyburn are worried about Trump’s appeal to black voters.  Specifically, if the BLM/AME network will activate as strongly in 2024 – given the potential for scrutiny as the AME precinct group in Philly, Fulton, Racine, Clark, Wayne and Pittsburgh counties might be nervous about doing the ballot scheme again.

That’s it.

That’s the fear.

[ps. My guess is the BLM ’24 trigger event will be activated by the FBI on/around April 19th.]

Mark Pittman & the Bankers


Posted originally on Jan 6, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

The late Mark Pittman was a journalist for Bloomberg when, once upon a time, there were still a few actual investigative reporters. Mark did a piece on my operation in Japan. He knew what we were doing, that the accounts were mine, not clients, and that I was buying distressed portfolios. Not one client ever signed a complaint, and there was NO DEFAULT. When they charged me. I met Mark at the Hyatt in NYC across from the Train Station. He knew it was a setup and said: “Marty, we are not going to allow them to do this to you.”

Trenton no Defaults 9 13 1999
HSBC Gag Cover

The law says that if you commit fraud, you MUST help the victims get their money back. Further proof of how New York City is a cesspool of corruption: when they realized I was helping my clients go after the bankers, they put a gag order on me to stop me from helping my clients against HSBC/Republic. They have been doing the same to Trump. The Special Prosecutor went as far as to demand a gag order on Trump so that he could not even criticize Biden while campaigning. You cannot make up this stuff. If you wrote a fiction novel with these maneuvers, they would say it is too far-fetched.

I think it is absolutely critical as Trump is put on trial in New York City. I was granted bail in New Jersey. Not a single NY journalist ever reported the Truth no less the courts. I was interviewed by a journalist who asked about the bank illegally trading in my accounts. She asked if they were using my accounts to “launder money for the Russian Mafia as they were doing in Madof?” The banks claimed in Madoff’s case not to have known. That is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE, for you have to know your client rules. They verified every account and the corporate documents behind each one. Madoff pled guilty to an information quickly. He was not indicted and could have defended for a few years. The only reason he did so was clearly to protect his family. Just as in my case, the bank claimed it had no idea where the money was. It is impossible to get $1 billion out of a bank, and nobody knows where it went. There is NO SUCH thing as a fair trial in New York City. Trump is doomed there, and this is all about interfering in the 2024 election.

Pittman Mark

Mark understood the bankers very well. Bloomberg removed Mark from covering my case and replaced him with David Glovin, who could never praise the government more. It was Mark at Bloomberg who battled in court for years to get the details of those bailouts released to the public. Mark was probably the most professional journalist I ever met. I was told after my case began that Bloomberg purged all the reports Mark had previously written about our firm from their terminals and certainly Japan. It was as if Bloomberg was in on the whole scam.

Mark’s wife, Laura, wrote to me about Mark’s death. It was a sad day, for there was NEVER anyone at Bloomberg I ever met who had the integrity of Mark Pittman.

Pittman lAURA lETTER

The Truth About Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies – An Unpopular Analysis


Posted originally on Jan 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Bitcoin and Gold

“Could governments seize bitcoin?” That is a common question, and much to the dismay of many, my opinion does not match the typical analysis. I have lost clients due to my honesty regarding crypto. I understand many firmly believe that Bitcoin will one day become the alternative to the USD, but it is unwise to believe that it is a safe haven to park money. I will not sugar-coat the truth, as feelings must be removed from trading. The answer is an astounding YES – governments can seize Bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies.

To begin, there is much speculation around the founder(s) — Satoshi Nakamoto – who created Bitcoin (BTC) on  June 3, 2009. The mystery person or group (or government agency) has been MIA since 2011. Yet 1 million Bitcoins remain in their original account, untouched. His wallet is estimated to be up to $73 billion, and if this is indeed an individual, he or she is one of the top 15 richest people in the world. They have never moved a fraction of a BTC from their account. So, one wallet contains 5% of all mined bitcoin. Will this person or entity perpetually hold?

Only 2.3% of Bitcoin owners own a full Bitcoin, while 74% own less than 0.01 BTC. Bitcoin was initially a way to remain under the government’s radar, with people using cash to fund their anonymous accounts. The majority no longer use this method and favor platforms that are required by governments to collect and verify all user data.

Bitcoin’s price is akin to the problem that existed when the bubble burst in 1966 with mutual funds because they were listed back then. The value can change at a volatility rate of 10x that of the dollar, making it a highly dangerous instrument as a store of wealth. It is solely a trading vehicle until they weigh it and the value is changed.

1966Crash D

In 1966, investors bid the mutual funds up beyond net asset value so during the crash, people lost everything when they thought it was a secure investment. The net underlying assets may have dropped 20%, but they paid 20% over the net asset value and then sold at 50% of the net asset value. Many mutual funds crashed 70-90%, whereas the Dow drop was 26.5%. Ever since, mutual funds have no longer been allowed to be listed. You go in and out at net asset value. Bitcoin must change its structure, or it will never become a valid currency with a stable store of value, which is supposed to be the whole point. It is just an asset class of high volatility.

Countries with strong currencies do not want bitcoin in existence. There are numerous ongoing efforts to regulate all cryptocurrencies, as politicians claim people are using it to either bypass taxes or commit crimes. Governments have reached the end of their rope and are actively on the hunt for additional taxes. They will default on all their debts, and the new monetary system they are planning will give them total control.

Governments in Europe and the Middle East prohibited my company from selling their clients REPORTS on bitcoin. We spoke with the regulators and explained we were merely selling a report and not currency, but they threw it all in the same bin. The same exact thing happens when we ship ancient coins as governments consider them currency despite them not being in circulation for numerous lifetimes.

1933 FDR exec order gold

Those who call Bitcoin “digital gold” are onto something, as governments have seized gold in recent history. Herbert Hoover admitted in his “Memoirs” that the investigation that led to the creation of the SEC was on the back of a phone call where he was told it was a conspiracy against his administration to create the stock market crash.

Governments will impose capital controls as they always do. That will mean that they will have no intention of allowing people to buy and sell cryptocurrencies. They will most likely do that as well when it comes to gold and silver. A black market in precious metals may exist with a supply that cannot be increased. They might even seize gold mines.

Governments are allowing cryptos like Bitcoin to exist because they can trace the transactions far better than paper currency. Bitcoin is a trading vehicle and nothing more. Just follow Socrates. That gives at least an unbiased viewpoint. What goes up comes down, and what goes down eventually goes up. That is just the law of the market.

Every major central bank has said they plan to move to CBDC. The entire purpose of the CBDC is to impose COMPLETE capital controls. So, how will you buy and sell anything that they deem to be a threat to their totalitarian world?