Posted originally on Sep 18, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
The average French pensioner receives a larger payout than working-aged adults. France has one of the highest replacement rate packages of any OECD nation at around 74% of average earnings. The French government spends an astounding 14% of GDP on the unsustainable pension system.
The average pension in France is around €1,626 gross per month, and pensioners earn around 2% more than the working adults propping up those pensions. The average American pensioner earns about a sixth less than working adults, UK retirees earn about a fifth less, while Australians earn around a third less than their working counterparts, according to Fortune. The amount demanded by retirees has increased proportionally over recent years, as have taxes on the working public, who now pay 8.55% of their income into the pension system.
Widespread pension reform protests took place in 2023 when we saw protesters attempt to burn down the BlackRock office in Paris after the retirement age was raised from 62 to 64. “The meaning of this action is quite simple. We went to the headquarters of BlackRock to tell them: the money of workers, for our pensions, they are taking it,” a protestor told a CNN affiliate. The protest was organized and the message was clear. The Parisians are not allowing government mismanagement to change their retirement plans. They have been promised an easy retirement and paid into the system. The government has been unable to fulfill its promises and the people perceive any reforms as an unfair betrayal.
The deficit for pensions is estimated to grow to €15 billion by 2035 and then to around €30 billion a couple of years later. The European Union requires member states to maintain a budget deficit below 3% but only 17 of the 27 members have met that target. French Economy Minister Eric Lombard is eager to lower the public deficit, aiming for 5.4% of GDP in 2025, followed by 3% in 2029.
France is facing a fiscal crisis of its own making. The government has consistently failed to address the core structural issues, instead relying on higher taxes and superficial spending cuts, which only serve to undermine economic growth. The public deficit, now surpassing 5.6% of GDP, is spiraling out of control, and the government’s projections to bring it under the EU’s arbitrary 3% threshold by 2029 are nothing more than wishful thinking. History has shown that governments never truly cut spending—they merely shift the burden through taxation, stifling private sector expansion.
This is why politicians want war with Russia as a diversion. They desperately need an excuse in the face of a crumbling monetary system. No one is buying government debt. The solution is to rob the pension funds to eliminate the need to issue bonds to cover expenses. That move will only undermine confidence in the EU and result in further civil unrest. Negative interest rates have robbed savers of income since 2014, but the world refuses to move away from Keynesian economics.
France and the rest of the Western world have a growing aging population paired with a massive decline in birth rates. These nations attempted to open borders to compensate for the lack of workers, but instead, the public became saddled with more debt as they were forced to pay for the newcomers.
Nothing is more inflationary than war, and Macron is eager to send off French troops to Ukraine as he closely aligns with Brussels to spur on the next major war. Confidence will decline, capital will flee, and interest expenditures will continue to rise. France risks a debt crisis that will only accelerate the collapse of the EU’s financial system. As I’ve warned before, the trend is clear: governments refuse to reform until they are left with no choice. The question is not if, but when, France will face the reckoning of its fiscal mismanagement.
Posted originally on CTH on September 16, 2025 | Sundance
During questioning today, Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley questioned FBI Director Kash Patel about additional information gathered by Grassley’s staff about FBI operation “Arctic Frost.”
Arctic Frost should not be a surprise to Treehouse readers as we previously outlined the operation in March of this year. Arctic Frost was an investigation of President Trump and ALL supporters of Donald Trump in the aftermath of the fraudulent 2020 election. [SEE HERE]
Operation Arctic Frost was the highly political FBI investigation that issued search warrants including to the Twitter platform for the records of all followers and users of the platform who were associated with the account of President Trump.
As previously outlined, Elon Musk complied with the DOJ/FBI subpoena releasing the identity of all user accounts who liked, followed, retweeted or engaged the Twitter account of President Donald J Trump. All of the banking records for Trump supporter groups were also subpoenaed including Charlie Kirk and Turning Point USA [SEE HERE]
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It’s a little odd for FBI Director Kash Patel to sit in front of Grassley who is outlining an example of the institutional corruption within the agency, while Democrats on the senate committee are questioning Kash Patel about adverse impacts to the corrupt institutional participants.
Posted originally on Sep 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
QUESTION: Marty, you have said it. This is the worst crop of leaders in Europe in all history. Now they are pushing for WWIII ASAP. They are calling for a no-fly zone over Ukraine. They have been saying that since they can protect Israel and shoot down Iranian missiles and drones, the West should do the same in Ukraine. Given your last blog’s focus on the stock market, gold, and the dollar’s rise, it seems to be pointing to war. Do you see this coming to a head by November?
Rosco
ANSWER: This is not looking good at all. I cannot confirm rumors that they captured several Russian drones and sent them over Poland to justify a false flag. I would not put it past them. They need the false flag to get the people to sign up for war. People will not volunteer to invade Russia to save Ukraine. This is the typical “rally around the flag” strategy.
They claim that the recent Russian drone attacks on Poland not only demonstrate that Vladimir Putin is trying to see how far he can push NATO. He already knows that NATO is clamoring to start WWIII. This can be easily stopped within 24 hours. Order Zelensky to honor the Minsk Agreement, which all of Europe signed, and this war will be over in 15 minutes. I am concerned that tensions are on track to escalate from September into November 2026.
I am pushing as hard as I can. President Trump has dismissed Zelensky’s latest appeals for advanced weaponry, including long-range missiles and air-defence systems, suggesting that Ukraine has been ill-advised. We have to keep the USA out of this European nightmare. They need war because the EU is crumbling. The choice is stark: either war as a diversionary tactic from the sovereign debt crisis, or the people will be storming their parliaments with pitchforks when they realize the Eurozone is collapsing economically.
I strongly disagree with Trump on sanctions and his latest theory, which is always a favorite among neocons. He said if all NATO countries refused to buy oil from Russia, the conflict could be put to a stop. He also suggested placing tariffs on China of 50% to 100% for its purchases of Russian petroleum. He suspects it “will break that grip” between the two countries, which have a strong alliance. Screwing with the economies of China and Russia rather than demanding the Minsk Agreement be honored will only PERMANENTLY create a hostile world. What planet he is on, I do not know.
There is absolutely no way that even China is prepared to see Russia lose in this conflict. You will have Russian Neocons seize power, and then you will have WWIII. Stop the bullshit and look long-term. We started this damn war – fess up to the facts and the timeline. You might as well make Victoria Nuland Secretary of State with supreme power to push the button.
I have heard the stupid argument that we were happy to shoot down Iranian drones and missiles aimed at civilian targets in Israel, but not in Ukraine. Iran was not capable of creating World War III. Russia and China are. I have never seen such stupidity on the geopolitical front in the 50 years I have been doing this. Thank God I am not 18. It’s hard enough dealing with this for just a few more years, let alone another 50.
This reminds me of Frank Sinatra’s Send in the Clowns. Don’t bother – they are here.
Posted originally on CTH on September 14, 2025 | Sundance
Many people were thrilled with the nomination and eventual confirmation of Kash Patel to be Director of the FBI. However, with decades of researching the political weaponization of the FBI and against the known capabilities of the nominee, we were not part of the thrilled group.
The non-pretenders looked at the challenge, contrast the scope of work against the skillset of the person selected to confront the institutional corruption, and warned people there was more reason to be apprehensive than optimistic.
Do you remember us outlining how the various FBI field offices would be keeping Patel/Bongino tied up with busy work, and stuff to go on TV about.
That said, we don’t want him to fail, but Director Patel has walked himself into a gauntlet of consequence that will be difficult to exit given his lack of discernment – evidenced in the events surrounding the assassination of Charlie Kirk.
The people in control of FBI field operations (not Kash), set up their agency head by informing the boss a suspect was in custody.
After eating dinner at Rao’s, an embarrassed Kash Patel was then forced to retract his public statement, walking back his message that a suspect was in custody at 7:59 pm, a little over 1.5 hours later.
The FBI field operatives smiled. Egg applied as expected, it worked brilliantly.
Kash Patel couldn’t then turn to those who set him up with too much anger, because their defense was, “we were questioning a suspect, we didn’t tell you to go public with it – and as it turned out the suspect was cleared.”
It was a brilliant maneuver, likely intended to undermine his authority and position. It worked perfectly.
Did you see Kash Patel’s face the next day when he eventually did arrive in Utah and didn’t say a word at the microphone?
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National media and DC political opposition now runs with the “incompetent” narrative, albeit rightly deserved but for other bigger matters, and the leadership structure of the FBI is weakened.
The institutional elements in control pulled off a great hit. Well played FBI bad guys. Well played.
Perhaps, just perhaps, Director Patel will shift his position and recognize the scale of opposition inside the institution he keeps praising. [Although I doubt his ego will allow him to reset.]
Kash Patel has essentially neutered himself by falling prey to the most transparently obvious ploy of the intel operatives within the institution.
Now, the media has a narrative to enhance, and Director Patel is scheduled to be questioned in the Senate later this week. What comes next will be entirely the result of his own self harm.
Those Machiavellian FBI guys are cruel.
Every adverse operative within the FBI will be back channeling specific investigative information to the Democrat inquisitors in advance, so questions can be specifically formatted.
Whether he can see it or not, FBI Director Kash Patel is being set up by his own agency in collaboration with the Senate guards in DC.
Unfortunately, Kash Patel is now in a defensive mode trying to promote his image over the past 24-hours by retweeting positive articles about him as written by the sources he uses to deliver information, John Solomon (Tick-Tock) and Brooke Singman (Fox).
It’s all quite transparent, and simultaneously a hot mess. “The more he spoke of his honor, the faster we counted the spoons.”
I’m not sure if President Trump can see it unfolding, or if President Trump is simply trying to support his FBI director and simultaneously avoid collateral embarrassment. Either way, given the fortunate situation where the father of the assassin secured his son and turned him into police, President Trump is supporting the successful outcome.
There is a sense of familiarity, a feeling similar to NSA Director Mike Waltz, about it:
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Understand and accept this with great seriousness, there are no honorable “rank and file” inside this organization. Every member of the FBI is a participant in the weaponization of power and government. The members are jackboots recruited from ideological college campuses for exactly the purpose of supporting a Stasi-like police state.
Through the past several years, we have discovered how the FBI worked inside Twitter, Facebook and social media to control information, remove content and manipulate opinion on behalf of the U.S. government – all activity political. We have also learned the FBI took active measures to suppress information about the Hunter Biden laptop and control any negative consequences for the Biden regime – again, political.
These are not disputed realities.
The U.S. Dept of Justice and FBI are now political institutions that have abandoned their originating mission in order to become the domestic equivalent of the Soviet-era FSB. Their joint targeting mechanisms have been redesigned to support the interests of corrupt DC politicians, specifically the interests of DC.
Tangentially related: (1) What’s the status of the DC pipe bomber case? And (2) are the 40 FBI agents who worked on the Mueller investigation, still employed?
Posted originally on Sep 12, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
Poland is deploying about 40,000 soldiers on the borders with Belarus and Russia amid rising tensions after the Russian drone attack on September 10. Still, there are rumours that they have captured Russian drones and have deployed them to instigate a false flag. We cannot verify this rumour, but it is getting traction.
Based on the ECM for Poland, we can see that October 26, 2023, was a significant turning point. Unfortunately, this aligned with our war cycles and then turned into 2028. The parliamentary elections in Poland were held on Sunday, October 15, 2023. The election was a decisive victory for the opposition parties, who together won a majority of seats in the parliament. This resulted in a significant shift in Polish politics.
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