Last 30 Seconds with El-Erian


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 10, 2022 | Sundance 

Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz and Gramercy advisor, is one of the least dishonest people amid the Wall Street propaganda crowd.  Although due to peer pressure, he still tends to couch his economic analysis behind the CNBC screen of pretending not to know things.   [On a personal level, I bet this guy is 80% cash right now.]

This interview is generally not that impressive.  However, at the very end of this segment talking about inflation, what El-Erian says about the first 10 days of June is 100% and he’s the first person to say it. But he won’t repeat it.  WATCH (Prompted):

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He’s looking at the same data set we are.  Watch closely when the May Producer Price Index (PPI) is released (origination, intermediate and final demand to wholesalers), we will see how the inflation costs are continuing to accumulate in the supply chain for all goods and leaking over into the vulnerable service sector now.

One-Third of High-Income Earners Live Paycheck to Paycheck


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Jun 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Inflation does not discriminate based on income. According to a new Bloomberg report, over one-third of Americans earning at least $250,000 annually are living paycheck to paycheck. Only 5% of the nation earns over $250,000 per year, and this is who the politicians would call “the rich.” One in ten noted that they struggled to cover their household expenses in April.

This is especially true for Millennials who lack decades of savings and were forced to purchase housing and other big-ticket items at the historically high price levels.  Among those earning $250,000 or more per year, 55.4% of Millennials reported living paycheck to paycheck compared to 26% of Boomers. In the $100,000 to $150,000 income range, 63% of Millennials reported an inability to save compared to 26% of Boomers.

Living paycheck to paycheck comes with the risk of slipping into debt. The Federal Reserve recently reported that 78% of Americans believed they were living comfortably financially, but they may be seeing the situation through rose-colored glasses. One in nine respondents from the same Fed survey admitted that they could not afford a mere $400 emergency expense. In this current economy, the wise are reassessing their spending as inflation is not expected to decline anytime soon.

Gun Sales Soaring in the US and Canada


Armstrong Economics Blog/Regulation Re-Posted Jun 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

As calls to repeal the Second Amendment continue, Americans have been buying guns at a record pace. Over 1 million civilians purchased firearms in the month of May alone, marking a record-breaking streak of 34 months of increased sales. Although the left would like the world to believe that there are no restrictions on buying guns, the majority of people who applied were not eligible. The FBI reportedly conducted 2.4 million background checks last month alone.

Gun sales in Canada have spiked as well after tyrant Trudeau announced plans to ban sales under Bill C-21. Numerous gun shops reported selling out of handguns entirely after the PM announced that it will become illegal to buy, sell, transfer or import handguns anywhere.” There are 2,500 gun retailers in Canada, and all of those shops are expecting to go out of business within months if not weeks. Exactly 55,000 guns were imported into Canada last year, but that legal trade will be prohibited.

People want to feel protected. The underground market for guns will surge in Canada, and these guns will become untraceable. Criminals especially will find a way to buy and distribute firearms with zero restrictions. The ban will not erase demand.

Gold – Dollar – Inflation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold Re-Posted Jun 6, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The American view during the 70s was more concerned about gold rather than the value of the dollar against world currencies. Most Americans never traveled to Europe so their impression of currencies was the Canadian dollar which was about par with the dollar that Americans would encounter when visiting Niagra Falls. I remember as a kid the family would drive up there and we would cross the border for the best view from the Canadian side. That was probably my first experience with a foreign currency other than ancient Roman coins when I bought my first one for $10 when I was probably 10 years old.

The other hot spot outside the United States was crossing the border to visit Tijuana in Mexico. That was a real hot spot largely promoted due to the Prohibition Days during the Roaring 20s. The Mexican peso was just this cheap thing that nobody really understood and they never understood how to count their change.

It was Roosevelt who confiscated gold from the banks and created a two-tier system whereby gold was used for international transactions, but silver was used for domestic currency backing until Kennedy ended the silver standard in 1965. Because gold was illegal to own except in coins dated 1947 or before, Americans really had little exposure to foreign currencies. They did not see the foreign exchange rate of the dollar during the 70s and 80s, it was all about gold. I even had a conversation with Paul Volcker who was focused not on the inflation rate as much as he too was obsessed with the rise in the price of gold from $35 in 1971 to $875 on January 21st, 1980 which he saw as the real inflation measurement.

As for the Europeans, they were focused on the dollar and the collapse of Bretton Woods. They were all buying gold after  March 1968 when the first crack in Bretton Woods took place allowing a parallel free market in gold in Europe. That was the birth of a two-tier monetary system. Overall, the Europeans were pushing the price of gold up in terms of dollars.

It was a wild time during the 70s. Because I was in New Jersey, the three major gold refineries were there. I was dealing with Englehard which ended up being Phibro post-1975 which took over Solomon Brothers. Before 1975, Americans could buy gold in coin form as long as it bore a date of 1947 and before. Austria, Hungary, and Mexico were the big sellers of gold. They were restricting coins with old dates so Americans could buy gold before 1975.

So I was in the thick of things back then insofar as trading was concerned. I had European clients in Gold and I dealt with all the Swiss banks at the time. By sheer fate, being a market maker in gold, taught me a lot. Gold was the first financial instrument for futures trading beyond currencies. The US bonds began trading in 1977 and S&P500 futures came in during 1985.

Gold rallied into 1974 on ANTICIPATION of Americans were going to run out and buy gold. They were expecting a gold rush. Being in the business, I never got one phone call about buying gold because it would be legal. Everyone who believed in gold had been buying gold coins all along.

The talk of the town was that gold would go to $500 as soon as the Americans were allowed to buy on January 1st, 1975. I sold gold short at the top mainly on a fundamental basis. I did not see any new demand. My Economic Confidence Model said it was a high. But I traded based on my observations.

I watched gold collapse back down to about $100 going into 1976. This is when after watching the ECM for 6 years, I went with it. I opened a new store in the Quakerbride mall and I signed a 10-year lease with a personal guarantee and I got them to eliminate the CPI clause. After all, the talk then was about another depression.

I watched 1968 was the first crack in Bretton Woods and the birth of the two-tier monetary system. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil embargo was a decision to stop exporting oil to the United States. Then-president Richard Nixon appeared particularly concerned that Arab nations might impose a selective embargo on the United States for its pro-Israel policy. He was correct. Oct. 19, 1973, was the official start of the embargo when the Middle East countries announced a 5% production cut per month in response to the Yom Kippur war between Egypt and Israel. They saw Israel’s victory in that war, was because of aid from the United States. The embargoing nations then threatened that the cuts would be restored once Israel withdrew from Palestine and Jerusalem. Obviously, that never happened.

As always, we MUST look at the CONTEXT of the period. First, the climate consensus was that we were heading to a new Ice Age – not global warming. That meant there would be a higher demand for oil to stay warm in winter. In 1971 and 1972, fears began to grow in the developed world that if we were not already running out of energy supplies, we would soon as additional nations adopt western industrial structures.

Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) warned the population would outgrow the food production so we needed to curtail the growth of the population and advocated deliberately creating a plague among the poor to reduce their number. If you ever really read Malthus, you can see the influence he has still had on people like Bill Gates,  George Soros, and Klaus Schwab.

Thus, in 1976 I went with the ECM. That was the wild wave of inflation and the very top of the next wave turned out to be 1981.35 which was the day of the high in interest rates.

What I learned was that none of the fundamentals mattered in the end. Gold would decline with inflation at times and rally at other times. It was more complex than that. The final rally from the $400 level to $875 had nothing to do with inflation, that was the invasion of Russia into Afghanistan.

The reliable was simply the objective analysis.

Remarkable Admission, Pete Buttigieg Announces Biden Inflation Plan is to Create Increased Dependency State and Apply Socialist Economics, Biden Led Govt to Provide Medicine, Childcare, Housing and Food


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 5, 2022 | Sundance

Here is one succinct interview containing the smorgasbord of far-left policies the people behind Joe Biden are proposing as the solution to the inflation crisis they have created. It is remarkable to see it all packed into one 8-minute segment.  There is so much crazy in here it would take a week of articles to unpack it.

The ultra-leftist Biden Transportation Secretary, Pete Buttigieg, appears on ABC with George Stephanopoulos to discuss the solutions to the massive economic collapse that looms all around us.  Within the interview Buttigieg states the Biden administration goal is to use the high cost of living (policy driven inflation) as an opportunity for the government to take over household expenses and create equity via government distribution.

If reasonable people do not intervene quickly, the executive branch and legislative branch will move to begin subsidizing and controlling medicine, childcare, housing and food costs by diverting tax dollars into the social equity system.  Depending on income, the Biden administration plans to offset higher prices for Americans by providing the essential services and products they need.  In essence, Democrat-Socialism with a filter of equity in distribution, ie “enhanced dependency.”  WATCH:

Remarkably, Stephanopoulos references one of the most insane New York Times op-ed’s ever written around economics {ARTICLE HERE}.  Within the reference, the Democrat legislative proposal is for the government to take over the purchasing of essential products like food, fuel, gasoline and medicine.  The government would then distribute those products.  The entire premise is based on some academic leftist theory of economics that is just nuts. It looks nothing like capitalism.

The baseline for the approach contains the premise that inflation is driven by too many people chasing scarce goods. Thus prices are rising.  This is how the Democrats look at inflation and explain the problem.  Their solution is for government to buy the food at the prices they claim people cannot afford, and then sell the food at prices they claim the people can afford.  [Replace ‘food’ with any item they determine]

Notice in the interview when Buttigieg is challenged about the high cost of gasoline, he complains that oil companies are not drilling enough to generate the oil and refinery capacity that we need.  Essentially, the oil companies are to blame for not creating more supply.

Now, pause, and think about that.

The same Pete Buttigieg voices strong opposition to any further exploitation of oil and natural gas.  Buttigieg and the Biden administration vociferously advocate for green energy transition with extreme urgency and apply punitive punishment toward any opposition.  Moments later, they are blaming the oil and gas industry for not providing enough supply….

…. Do you know what that advocacy conflict sounds like?  That conflicted and twisted mental outlook is the psychology happening in abusive relationships.  If you had made me a better sandwich, I wouldn’t have needed to punch you in the mouth.  If the oil companies we restrict were doing the things we restrict them not to do, then things would be better.

Because the oil, gas, farms or (fill_in_the_blank) etc are not doing their jobs correctly – as to predict the damage caused by govt policy and offset the consequences – then government must take over the controls of the industry and manage the process.  History rhymes…

WEF Praises Quiet Lockdowns


Armstrong Economics Blog/Tyranny Re-Posted Jun 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

In a deleted video posted on the World Economic Forum’s website, the group praised the lockdowns for offering a quiet atmosphere.

The dystopian post-apocalyptic setting certainly seemed quiet at times. Here is what the latest lockdown sounded like in Shanghai for those who have already forgotten:

Former Trump Official Peter Navarro Handcuffed and Put in Leg Irons by FBI, Joe Biden State Police Force


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 3, 2022 | Sundance

Former economic and trade advisor Peter Navarro appeared outside the courthouse in Washington DC after his arrest. [Two Videos] WATCH:

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Full remarks and press conference below.

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Joe Biden Begins Using FBI to Arrest Political Opposition from Prior Administration


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 3, 2022 | Sundance

Peter Navarro was the former Senior Trade and Economic Advisor to President Trump and a staunch critic former of U.S. policy toward China.   The January 6th Commission demanded all his documented communication with President Trump and anything that might be related to the authorities of the J-6 Committee.  Navarro did not comply with the Democrat subpoena from the committee.

Attorney General Merrick Garland, acting on the authority of Joe Biden, instructed the FBI to arrest Peter Navarro and bring him to federal incarceration.

Put in more clear terms, Joe Biden is arresting his political opposition for failing to reveal confidential and privileged communication with the former President.

Democrats are using the FBI as the federal police agency to arrest their political opposition. This is happening right now.

This is happening in the United States of America.

Think about it.

(VIA NBC News) […] Navarro, 72, was indicted by a federal grand jury on Thursday for contempt after snubbing a subpoena from the House committee investigating Jan. 6 seeking testimony and documents.

Court documents indicate that the government requested that Navarro’s indictment be sealed until his “arrest operation is executed.” The U.S. Attorney’s Office told NBC News that Navarro “is in custody pending the court appearance” later Friday. (read more)

House Representative David Cicilline Introduces 2022 Democrat Campaign Strategy, Constitutional Rights are “Bulls**t”


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 3, 2022 | Sundance

Democrat House of Representatives member David Cicilline (Rhode Island) delivered remarks during a congressional hearing about the second amendment rights of Americans.  Within his prepared remarks Representative Cicilline says the quiet backroom part out loud and introduced the modern democrat perspective on the constitution.  WATCH:

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When people show you who they are, what their priorities maintain and how they structure their outlooks, it is generally the best idea to accept it.

If constitutional rights are “bullshit,” then what control mechanisms remain to restrain excessive government power?

Neil Oliver, Perhaps it is Time to Pluck the Strutting Peacocks at Davos


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on May 28, 2022 | Sundance

In his weekly monologue today, Neil Oliver discusses the strutting peacocks at Davos who think they are masters of the universe controlling the outcomes of the sheeple masses beneath them.  However, as Oliver also notes, only the brainless frogs will sit in the pot – the rest of us, but far the majority, have no time for these insufferable schemes and dictates.

The pretense of the Potemkin village can only be maintained as long as good, moral and virtuous people extend the graciousness of patience and play along with the pretending.  Whether the Davos crowd want to admit it or not, the ranks of the grace-filled are diminishing, and the ranks of the vulgarian hoard are swelling.  We are all becoming increasingly hardened, deliberate and refusing to pretend. The control mechanisms are starting to falter, and the messaging hits deaf ears.  WATCH:

[Transcript] – The usual suspects have been in Davos again, at the World Economic Forum overseen by Klaus Schwab – the few hundred of the most unimaginably rich gathered in one place to fantasise together about what the several billions of us ought to be forced to do in order to make those billionaires’ lives better.

Those poor billionaires – for whom everything on Earth might finally be perfect, if only someone would invent the vacuum cleaner big enough to suck every last one of us peasants, inconsequential specks of dust that we are, into outer space once and for all.

While listening to whichever one on stage is pontificating about this or that technological advance, or about how better to structure civilization itself, I find it best to imagine they have the high pitched, excitable voices of children – like in those TV adverts for chewy, jelly sweeties.

When I do that, I am reassured by their evident ridiculousness, their patent lack of a grasp on the reality of what this human species of ours is all about.

Some of their ilk talk blithely about the millions, billions of “useless eaters” who might best be controlled and placated by drugs and video games.

I hear it announced that it is already time to “hack” the human animal and implant technologies to make us better at being alive in the world. Some of them are apportioning to themselves nothing less than the power of God.

It is precisely that genetic failing of theirs, demonstrably present in one billionaire or technocrat authoritarian after another, that will always be their undoing in the end. That glitch, that Achilles Heel common to all of them, is their failure to note the still limitless potential of the unadulterated Human Being Mark I. They think they have us mapped – tracked and traced already – but they don’t.

There’s another thing they collectively overlook – or deny, at least to themselves – while making their plans and cooking up their little magic potions.

And it is fear – their own fear. Their all but overwhelming fear of all of us. Whether or not they’re aware of it, they are motivated, those few hundred Richey Richests, by fear of the billions of us. They look out at us, down on us, from their castle walls, and our presence – in all our endless, untidy, unpredictable variety – and they are afraid. They don’t really understand us, they don’t really get us, and it’s that which has made them fearful.

People always fear what they don’t understand. When you get right down to it, they would probably rather we just weren’t here. But we are here. We are here and every last one of us, white, black or brown, tall or short, good at maths or good at growing plants, or good at putting smiles on the faces of those around us, or whichever small fragment of the miraculous each of us has within us – every last one of us has the same unalienable right to a place on this planet as any one of them. Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates – whoever – has no more right to be here, to live the best life available here, than you or me.

You may have heard or read by now about the slowly boiled frog. It’s that notion that you can put a frog in a pot of cold water and turn on the heat beneath. Poor frog doesn’t know what’s happening and so, according to the story, is slowly and unknowingly cooked to death. We are invited to think that we are like that frog, that we are helpless to identify the danger we are in, far less to extricate ourselves from our plight. Here’s the thing: it’s not true.

Back in the 19th century a scientist of sorts removed a frog’s brain and found it would, indeed, remain in the steadily heating water until dead. But much more recently, in the 20th century, biologists tried the experiment with healthy, complete frogs – and found that every single one of them leapt out long before it was in any real danger. Sometimes, the frog wouldn’t stay in the pot even when there was no heat under it at all.

Clearly the lesson there is that only brainless frogs get boiled alive.

I would offer here a helpful analogy: we placed ourselves in a pot called the social contract. This is a way of describing the relationship we proles have with the State. Put simply, under the terms of the social contract, we agreed to behave and do our bit, and in return the State kept us safe from crime and undue suffering and protected our rights and freedoms. That was the deal.

A while ago, though – even before the adventures of Covid-19 – the State turned the heat on under the pot. It takes a while – and each one of us frogs becomes aware of the change at a different moment – but sooner or later one frog after another realises the water has become unpleasantly warm … and jumps out. I feel this is what is happening now – that’s what’s been happening for years. More and more healthy frogs, with brains intact, are getting out of the pot, turning their backs on the social contract.

For those who thought they could cook us, without us knowing, this is a frightening time. The billionaires, technocrats and autocrats can sit together in Davos and squeak excitedly to one another all they want. But they’re in another pot – a pot of their own elitism – and the heat under theirs is rising too.

I am wired to look back in time in search of answers to problems. Given the assumption that there’s noting new under the sun – that a version of whatever is happening now has likely happened in the past – I look to see how things played out.

Nearly 2,000 years ago the Caledonians of the north faced off against a Roman army led by a Roman Governor called Agricola. Among much else, the Roman Empire wantedsubmission from those people they deemed lesser, inferior.

According to Agricola’s son in law, Tacitus, the Caledonians were led by one they called Calgacus, which means the swordsman, who rallied his forces with these words, or words like them:

“To all of us slavery is a thing unknown; there are no lands beyond us, and even the sea is not safe, menaced as we are … And thus in war and battle, in which the brave find glory, even the coward will find safety … unpolluted by the contagion of slavery … the furthest limits of Britain are thrown open, and the unknown always passes for the marvellous. But there are no tribes beyond us, nothing indeed but waves and rocks, and yet more terrible Romans, from whose oppression escape is vainly sought by obedience and submission.

“Robbers of the world, having by their universal plunder exhausted the land, they rifle the deep. If the enemy be rich, they are rapacious; if he be poor, they lust for dominion; neither the east nor the west has been able to satisfy them. Alone among men they covet with equal eagerness poverty and riches … they create a devastation and call it peace.”

I read about those Romans and see the model for every autocratic empire there ever was, and that ever shall be – from whose oppression escape is vainly sought by obedience and submission. The Romans were the victors of the battle in question, but they never did win either the submission or the obedience of those Caledonians. The Roman Empire declined and fell, of course – as every empire must. Empires used to last for centuries. The most recent last for just years. They fall, the world kings, faster and faster every time.

The strutting peacocks of Davos, the WEF, the United Nations and the World Health Organisation are no Romans. But they want our obedience and submission and have endeavoured to obtain as much by stealth. They thought we wouldn’t see them, wouldn’t see what they were doing, that we wouldn’t feel it, but we did and we do.

They sought to exploit our good nature. Give the devil his due – the social contract was good while it lasted. We had peace a lot of the time, rule of law, personal freedom and protected rights that passed from generation to generation.

That was then, though, and this is now. Now a handful of frightened billionaires and their enablers seek to make the pot a prison. By the manipulation of fear and the application of propaganda, they want us to be and to remain forever as frightened as they are.

They tell those of us who’ve noticed that we are being silly, that nothing of the sort is happening. This is gaslighting – and that is the gas that’s already lit under the pot. But look at what they’ve done. Having slipped and shouldered their way further and further into our lives, every aspect of our lives, they’ve only made a mess of everything. For all their wealth and their so-called wisdom we’re all about to get poorer, colder and hungrier. Already millions have had their health – physical mental or both – hopelessly compromised. It is increasingly hard not to see this as having been the plan all along. After all, surely no one in authority is stupid enough to have caused all this harm by accident.

As far as I am concerned, the social contract has been broken – not by we the many law-abiding, tax-paying majority, but by the few of the State.

Of course, an analogy only goes so far. We are not frogs. We are human beings. This is our country, our world. In the moment we decide collectively that we have nothing to fear from those who would take advantage of our good nature … in that moment the fear is gone. And somewhere in their hearts, and somewhere in their heads, the billionaires in Davos must know it too. (LINK)