Capital Flow & Flight to Quality?


Posted originally on Apr 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Flight to Quality

QUESTION: A recent analysis by Allianz economists claimed that, ordinarily, when yields on Treasuries rise, the U.S. dollar strengthens as foreign capital pursues those higher yields. However, the dollar weakened as yields rose. They said that in this instance, it “suggests major holders were not only selling Treasuries but also converting the proceeds into currencies – possibly reallocating to European markets.”

This does not seem to be correct. It looks like an opinion. Could you comment on this, please?

Thank You

Greg

Capital Flow Map M 4 24 25

ANSWER: I think a lot of people fail to appreciate the stark difference between the US markets and Europe. The NYSE is worth MORE in total capitalization than all of Europe COMBINED! The US consumer spending on a bad day is still 25% of global consumer spending. Europe accounts for $1.20 out of every $10 spent. Europe CANNOT be a reservoir for big capital. It is so socialistic, it is a joke. We invented capital flow analysis, and we have the actual data.

1927 Secret Banking g4

This idea is not original about interest rates and capital flows. This is the typical academic theory they still teach in schools today. In 1927, that was the FIRST G4 meeting where Britain, France, and Germany petitioned the NY Fed to lower interest rates in hopes that that would send capital back to Europe. When they did that, it CONFIRMED that there was a debt crisis, and even more money poured into the USA.

DowIntRates 1927 1932

The Fed cut rates in the US to help Europe, and the markets continued to rise as capital flows into the US intensified. The money was pouring into the US equities, and the Dow more than doubled as the Federal Reserve raised rates from 3.5% to 6%.

Chin Holdings US Debt Q 4 24 25

China has been reducing its holdings of US debt ever since the 2014 Ukrainian War began and the Biden Administration threatened China with sanctions if it helped Russia. This is what I have spoken about the BRICS is all about: geopolitical theater, not economics. China saw removing Russia from SWIFT as using the world financial system as a geopolitical tool. The Biden Administration was run by the Neocons, who do not care about the people or the economy, only their myopic desire to destroy Russia.

This is why FOX News or any mainstream news organization would NEVER invite me because I rain on their parade. This is all about feeding people the narrative they agree with. This is never about news.

Just the Facts

BLOOMBERG

Bloomberg has crossed to the dark side of propaganda; They are more concerned about hating Trump than they are about reporting just the facts, ma’am. They reported:

“The rotation by investors out of American assets will go on for years if President Donald Trump persists with his global trade war.”

“The Trump administration has arguably opened the door for the country’s financial dominance to be challenged, with the dollar and Treasury bonds losing appeal in what may be a dire shift of fortunes for America. US equities also have been underperforming global peers this year amid fear that Trump’s strategy of tariff chicken will damage growth and stoke inflation.”

1932 The Evening Journal Wilmington Delaware • Tariffs c aused depression

This is all based on the Democrats’ propaganda during the 1932 presidential election. As I have said, there is no serious economist I have ever heard blame the Great Depression on the tariffs, which did not come into effect until June 1930, and they were a response to Europeans raising taxes 33 times after World War I.

By the way, Japan and China have also been dumping European Debt. With Europe pushing for World War III, you have to be insane to buy European debt. European shares hold the risk of capital controls, and you will not get your money out when the first bullet is fired.

UK FTSE market closed 1915 1918

So, people are selling US shares and debt and moving to Europe as a safe haven? They must be the same people who are still driving alone in their car with a mask on to feel safe.

Exit Tax

Europe & the Future – Institutional Report


Posted originally on Apr 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Europe Institutional Report 2025

Our Institutional Report covering all of Europe’s individual countries, with their forecasts generally out to 2032, has been a monumental effort. We greatly appreciate your patience, but this is vital for making decisions about future investments in Europe. Things are certainly different from what they were in the past. Countries like Sweden and Switzerland, which had been neutral during previous world wars, have surrendered their neutrality and will NOT prove a safe harbor for capital during this conflict. Sweden has joined NATO and even sent jets to Poland. Switzerland gave up all accounts held by foreigners and seized over $8 billion in accounts belonging to Russians, abandoning its historic traditions.

We have covered all of the Balkans, including Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia. Additionally, we have covered the Baltic states of northeastern Europe on the eastern shore of the Baltic Sea, comprising three countries: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. They are bordered by Russia to the east and Poland to the southwest. Of course, we have also included Ukraine.

Things have changed dramatically since World War II. The aggressor has changed, and those who were once neutral are no longer neutral. This has significantly changed the dynamics of where to place assets in the face of another European war, which is inevitable.

Europe Institutional Report 2025 Croatia

This report covers countries that nobody else even covers.

This also addresses the War with Russia & The eventual breakup of the EU itself

577 Pages fully illustrated with Charts and Arrays Per County, covering Currency and share markets

This Report is massive, and the price is $10,000 per institution.

(Email is ArmstrongEconomics.COM if you would like to be invoiced and pay by check or wire)


Europe Institutional Report 2025 Index 1
Europe Institutional Report 2025 Index 2
Europe Institutional Report 2025 Index 3

The Fate of Europe & the Euro


Posted Apr 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 
The Fate of Europe 4 24 25 2

This report covers the fate of Europe and the currency. What this report also does is dive deep into what the European Union is preparing to fund its war through various means, which amount to a forced loan, using private citizens’ savings to fund the war against Russia. This report is quite extensive, covering the Euro, politics, geopolitics, and the upcoming capital controls. We highly recommend that our European clients take notice of this report, as there are serious risks to your future, and this is not a sales pitch.

The report is available for $95.00

Europe Prepares for War Chapters
The Fate of Europe Index 1 4 24 25
The Fate of Europe Index 2 4 24 25

Categories:

NATO Quest for War with Russia


Posted originally on Apr 24, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

NATO Headquarters Brussels

NATO has heightened its alert level, placing fighter jets in the “highest state of readiness” in response to Russia’s aggressive strikes in Western Ukraine. The Armed Forces Operational Command confirmed that allied air forces have commenced patrols over Polish airspace near the Ukrainian border. Zelensky’s refusal to accept any peace deal demonstrates he is taking orders from NATO and the American Neocons, who, my sources say, are operating now out of Paris and London to ensure this war does not end. President Donald Trump on Wednesday lashed out at Ukraine’s president, saying Zelenskyy is prolonging the “killing field” after pushing back on ceding Crimea to Russia as part of a potential peace plan.

2025_03_25_09_05_50_When_Genocide_Is_Caught_on_Film_The_New_York_Times

The people living in Crimea are ethnic Russians, not Ukrainians. The total population of Crimea is approximately 2 million people, of which 12-15% are Tatars, descendants of the Mongol invasion of 1240. There is no ethnic Ukrainian population living there. This is purely a territorial grab for war with Russia and nothing more. The Ukrainians have a history of ethnic cleansing and hatred of other races. They even horrified the German Nazis by their cruelty. In this photo, they executed a woman for being Jewish. They buried her child alive to save bullets.

The ONLY way to stop this is for Putin to drop the leaflets on Kiev, tell them to vacate Ukraine, and you have 30 days before it utterly destroys Kiev like the Romans did to Carthage to end the Punic Wars. The Romans destroyed Carthage in 146 BC at the end of the Third Punic War (149–146 BCE), essentially to eliminate Carthage as a political, military, and economic rival and to prevent future conflicts. A combination of fear, vengeance, and strategic calculation drove this action.

After the Second Punic War (218–201 BCE), in which Hannibal nearly defeated Rome, Carthage was reduced to a weakened state but began recovering economically. Many Romans, like the statesman Cato the Elder, feared Carthage might regain power and threaten Rome again. His famous refrain, “Carthago delenda est” (“Carthage must be destroyed”), reflected this paranoia.

Rome arguably provoked the Third Punic War. Carthage had complied with earlier treaties, but Rome exploited a minor conflict with Numidia (a Roman ally) to justify invasion. Hardliners in the Roman Senate, eager for glory and wealth, pushed for total war. The annihilation of Carthage—burning the city, killing or enslaving its population, and symbolically salting the earth (though this detail may be later legend)—sent a brutal message to other Mediterranean powers about Rome’s ruthlessness in crushing enemies. Carthage’s territory became the Roman province of Africa, enriching Rome with its resources. The destruction marked the end of Carthaginian civilization and secured Rome’s hegemony over the western Mediterranean.

Turchynov Oleksandr Interim Ukraine President began war

In this instance, it is NATO and the Neocons who have provoked this war with Russia out of vengeance for once being communist. They installed the interim UNELECTED president Oleksandr Turchynov (born 1964) and ordered him to attack the Donbas instantly, beginning the war. He called them terrorists because they wanted separation after Ukrainians massacred Russians in Odessa. There will NEVER be a genuine peace with Ukraine because NATO controls their leadership, and Trump has to come to grips with this.

Ukraine Attacks Donbas 4 23 2014

The only possible way to end this war is the total destruction of Ukraine. Drop the leaflets as the US did to Japan, telling the people to leave. Europe will threaten nuclear war if they do that, and Russia has to target every major city in Europe. Then and ONLY then will the people of Europe rise up against their brain-dead leaders who take orders from NATO and the Neocons and stop this insanity. The French Senate just voted 372 to 99 in favor of war with Russia. Europe will be destroyed in the process if NATO and Neocons are not stopped.

Paris Commune 1871

The whole issue of hating Jews was a conspiracy that Communism was a Jewish creation because Lenin, Trotsky, and Marx were all Jewish. This is why Soros and Zelensky both pretended to be Christians to escape the hatred of Jews and the ethnic cleansing, all based on the idea that Communism was created by Jews, when it began in France as the Commune Movement.

Meeting with Norwegian PM Jonas Store in White House, President Trump Delivers Remarks on Ukraine/Russia Conflict


Posted originally on CTH on April 25, 2025 | Sundance

President Trump hosted Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre in the Oval Office and took questions from reporters on Thursday.  The majority of the question from both the U.S. and Norwegian media encompass the current effort to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine.

One of the ceasefire ‘sticking points’ per se’, is that immediately following the breakout of the conflict the government of President Zelenskyy changed many of their constitutional rules to include the legal elimination of opposition parties in the country, removal of religion or faith-based social influence that runs counter to the Ukrainian Nazi mindset, the cessation of elections in Ukraine, and other “emergency measures” intended to assist the stability of Zelenskyy’s government as they entered a war footing.

The results of the legal changes and constitutional framework, which included non-recognition of any lost territory, is now being leveraged by Zelenskyy in negotiations for a ceasefire.  President Zelenskyy is now saying the ceasefire terms proposed, which include accepting regional losses of geography to Russia, are not constitutionally possible and he has no power to agree to them.

In essence, Zelenskyy’s emergency government changed the constitutional power of the President, cemented a new constitutional status during war, and now says those previous changes make it impossible to accept proposed terms.  This self-fulfilling creation, intentionally done with forethought for exactly this kind of current scenario, is the baseline for frustration toward the Ukraine position.  President Trump notes this Ukraine position is frustrating, while thousands die weekly in the process.  WATCH:

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Biometrics Active – A Weird Thing Happened Returning Through Airport


Posted originally on CTH on April 24, 2025 | Sundance

As most of you know I have been traveling extensively. However, a strange thing happened today upon return through the airport.

Apparently, all of the test pilots for biometrics, real ID etc. are now linked and active.  As I approached the passport control kiosk with my passport in hand, the gentleman said “welcome back, enjoy the rest of your day,” and that was it.

I stood there for a second, asked if he needed my passport and he said, “no, you’re good. Go on through.”  It seems the facial recognition software is live.  You no longer need to show your U.S. passport or any ID when arriving through U.S. international passport control.

Now, I should say I have never signed up for TSA pre-check, Fast Track, or any other kind of Global Travel authentication.  I have always opted to just be a grey traveler with as little a footprint as possible.  I reentered the U.S. the same way in February and needed to show the traditional passport, etc. However, this time in April it was totally different. There is no longer any paperwork or documentation needed.  It actually, seemed a little weird.

I should also note the U.S. “opt-out” for facial scans is a little bit of a ruse; the reason is when you depart from a foreign country, destined to the USA, the facial recognition is mandatory.  The U.S. Dept of Homeland Security, TSA and Border Control, require all countries to authenticate the U.S. destined traveler at the point of exit.  It’s not optional in other countries, you either comply or you don’t get to come home to the USA.

Because it’s not optional in other countries, and because the database is connected to the U.S. border entry system, the fact you can opt-out of having your picture taken inside the USA is moot; your facial impression is already captured at your point of departure from the foreign country and shared with U.S. homeland security.

This appears to be how the interconnected systems are now recording travel.  By the time you reach the U.S. entry point, they already have a database of your biometrics to match your entry.  Cameras located facing toward the traveler as they approach the kiosk, cross reference the data and the passport control officer knows exactly what authorities for entry you carry as you approach.  Showing documentation such as your passport is no longer needed.

As I mentioned this on my X-account, several people affirmed to have recently experienced the same entry process.  Physical passports are no longer required regardless of whether you have opted-in to some pre-registration fast track travel system.  You simply walk through the passport checkpoints now and collect your luggage.

I have seen this in several countries with varying degrees of technological advancement.  However, it was usually when you are connecting from one flight to another within a singular international airport.  This is different.  This is the TSA/DHS database fully active with biometric, facial recognition scanning that you cannot avoid.

This process is obviously unavoidable now and given how much research CTH has done on the AI aspect to facial recognition (Palantir software), real id and enhanced biometrics that were being tested in various transportation hubs, it looks like the system is now fully active.  April 5th was the universal deadline for “Real ID” rollout, and I’m guessing sometime around then was the trigger date for the live activation of the system I just experienced.

All of that said, this notification by me is not to raise any alarms, it is simply to raise awareness.  The system is active, and you will likely experience it if you travel outside the USA and then reenter.

Everything seems cool, until you start to think about your biometric identity being attached to some form of travel approval.  Owe the govt money, you don’t get to travel until the issue is resolved etc.  You can see how this ‘slippery slope’ will likely play out.  Additionally, it does not take a deep weeds thinker to expand the consideration when this DHS/TSA system is in the hands of a certain type of political ideology in charge of it (weaponizing it).

President Trump to Hold 100th Day Celebration in Michigan – Auto Tariff Focus


Posted originally on CTH on April 24, 2025 | Sundance

President Donald Trump will be holding a celebration of his 100 days in office during a stop in Michigan.  It makes sense to pick Michigan as the auto industry is representative of the Trump global trade reset and tariff program.

So far, eleven new or expanded U.S. automotive factories have been announced as major automakers seek to establish production lines in the USA to avoid 25% auto tariffs.  The latest announcement was from Toyota, for expanded facilities in West Virginia.

“Toyota Motor Corporation’s North American manufacturing subsidiary, Toyota North America Inc, announced this week that it plans to invest a further US$88 million in its West Virginia plant in the US to assemble its next generation of hybrid transaxles.” {source}

Additionally, South Korea is on the losing end of negotiation leverage due in large part to their position within the auto sector.  Japan has already had preliminary discussions with the Trump administration on a new free trade agreement. Now we see South Korea coming to the table for the agreement outline today.

(Reuters) – A South Korean delegation will meet U.S. counterparts on Thursday for an opening round of trade talks, with cooperation on shipbuilding and energy expected to be on the agenda, and possibly shared defence costs, as Seoul seeks lower tariffs.

South Korea, which faces 25% U.S. reciprocal tariffs, is among the first countries the Trump administration has initiated trade talks with, after its first face-to-face discussions last week with Japan, another key Asian ally slapped with 24% tariffs. (more)

President Trump Signs Executive Orders…


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Fiery Hellscape! Firefighters Battle Wildfires in Ocean City, NJ


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Breitbart Alum Kristina Wong Sworn in As Navy Comms Director


Posted originally on Rumble on Bright Bart News Network on: Apr 22, at 1:00 pm EST