Posted originally on Apr 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, Socrates seems to be pointing to a C$ bounce. Does this imply that Carney will lose, or does it mean the bounce will be brief on his nonsense and then turn south?
RE
ANSWER: The only hope that Carney has is a coalition. Comparing the Conservatives to the Liberals in Canada provides an interesting picture. Trudeau was able to be the leader of Canada with 32% of the vote. The computer clearly shows that Carney will beat Justin Trudeau, who was first elected as Prime Minister of Canada on October 19, 2015, and served until his recent resignation in January 2025. He led the Liberal Party to victory in three federal elections during his tenure. In 2015, he had 39.47% of the vote. Then in 2019, he won with 33.1%. Then in 2021, he won with 32.6% while the Conservatives beat him with 33.7%. This is the problem with a Parliamentary system – it allows fragmentation and coalitions.
Trump threw his 2 cents into the ring on Truth Social. That could help Carney. Canada would never become the 51st state. Each province would become a separate state, and that would mean each gets two senators, and they could join the Democrats and kill the US economy with their EQUALITY that has killed Canadian productivity. Canada’s once-thriving economy is now facing severe challenges, from a housing bubble that has pushed debt beyond GDP to a massive brain drain of skilled workers. With real estate prices climbing over 300% in two decades while wages lag far behind, homeownership is slipping further out of reach for most Canadians. At the same time, Canada’s productivity is declining, with the average worker producing 30% less than their U.S. counterpart. With rising discontent, increasing financial strain, and a lack of strong leadership. This has led to the question of how much longer Canada can hold on before a major economic crisis?
In the last election, the Conservatives beat Trudeau with 33.7% vs 32.6%. To get a majority, they need 172 seats. The Liberals will most likely carry the East – Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Quebec, and Ontario. This election could ignite the separation fires burning beneath the surface in the West. Our model warns that it was the completion of a 72-year cycle in the 2021 election for the Liberals, and that should be the low point. They have a fighting chance this time and will beat Trudeau’s numbers.
We still have the risk of war in May. Germany has just instructed Zelensky not to agree to any peace deal with Trump. The key level will become 7225 in the future, going into May.
Posted originally on Apr 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong |
COMMENT: Martin,
Had to laugh here’s a comment about Janice Stein and Mark Carney.
As my father in law always said, “in the valley of the blind the one eyed man sees the most.”
The world is full of Academics that have no clue, too many people playing business and politics with other people’s money and lives!
“Janice Stein Endorsed Carney . Canada’s Leading, Most Respected Political Scientist and International Affairs Expert Janice Stein saying “Mark Carney is the “World’s Leading Economist” and Could very well lead the “Whole World” through the Trump Crisis, let alone Canada.” Stein isn’t just a leading voice in Canada—she’s recognized worldwide for her expertise in conflict resolution, global governance, and international relations. When someone of her global standing says this, it’s a big deal! Janice Gross Stein is Canada’s leading, most respected political scientist and international affairs expert.”
When a third of the country works for the Government, and a third is living off the Government, it sure makes it hard for the other third to vote for a Government.
Unfortunately, this Monday, Canada will witness another Liberal win, which will confirm your forecast that Canada will split!
It’s just time!
Jim M
REPLY: Carney was a key player in this Net-Zero nonsense, and he has lied about everything and acts like he is running against Trump – nobody else. I have not yet confirmed that the coup at the WEF was also in hopes of supporting Carney to claim he is not truly linked to Schwab, since he is no longer there. Trudeau resigned to avoid a NO CONFIDENCE vote, which would have led to the loss of power for the Liberals. Every step of this game is to retain power for the LEFT.
Carney is the instrument of Canada’s demise, for the LEFT will always burn down their own houses to protest against the RIGHT. Carney offers nothing that will benefit Canada, and the joke that Canada will replace the USA as the new leader of the world is laughable. Canada is highly socialistic, so the “income inequality” is lower, just like Communist Russia and China, which ultimately caused their demise. The productivity of the US compared to Canada explains the cost of the more regulations that Canada adopts, following Marx’s socialist philosophy.
United States: $76,643
Canada: $56,316 The U.S. GDP per capita is about 36% higher than Canada’s in nominal terms.
The U.S. indeed has higher inequality, so that median income disparities may be less pronounced. The U.S. generally has higher labor productivity due to greater investment in innovation and technology. The U.S. population (332 million) is nearly 9x larger than Canada’s (38 million), the US economy accounts for 25% of the entire world’s consumer spending, which is why the US is the reserve currency of the world because everyone has to sell whatever products for export to Americans – not Canadians.
Carney’s Vision of Replacing the United States as New World Leader
There has been a coup at the World Economic Forum because these very LEFTIST views and agendas are collapsing. So, Carney wants to lead the world on a sinking ship? As one reader put it.
“It appears from here, at first glance, that the WEF is repainting its storefront in an effort to stay in business while narrowing its attacks on the global food supply chain to taking control of the water supply. Same depopulation goal, new coat of paint.”
FA in Arkansas
Military:
The US has one of the largest militaries globally, with approximately 1.3 million active-duty personnel, with 800,000 reserves, which is the highest globally at $877 billion (2023), about 3.5% of GDP.
Canada has around 68,000 active personnel and 27,000 reserves, which cost $26.5 billion (2023), roughly 1.3% of GDP.
The US military is a global powerhouse with unmatched scale and technology, while Canada’s smaller force emphasizes specialized roles, alliances, and domestic/Arctic security. Their cooperation through NATO and NORAD underscores a strategic partnership, with Canada often leveraging US capabilities for broader defense needs. Yet, Carney is claiming that Canada will now lead the world? Differences in budget and scope reflect distinct national priorities.
The 2025 Canadian federal election will be held on April 28 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. The problem with Canada is that the Parliamentary System does not allow the people to vote for who should lead the country. Carney would never become president in the United States, where 42% would be the loser. The problem is that governments are cobbled together with coalitions, and this is what prevents any true economic progress for the future.
The LEFT has been declining since its high in 1949, necessitating coalition governments to remain relevant. Trudeau only won 32.62% of the vote in 2021. Carney should beat that since the 2021 election was most likely the bottom of a 72-year cycle. Additionally, the higher percentage of the workforce employed by the government in Canada naturally gives them an edge over conservatives. The rate of the US workforce employed in government is 13.8%, compared to 18.6% in Canada. This is what has lowered the Marxist view of “income equality” in Canada vs the USA.
We will do an Update on the threat of Canada Splitting soon.
Posted originally on Apr 26, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Nigel Farage said that your WEC events were the “alternative to Davos,” but you also don’t gouge people as Schwab does. He charges between 500,000 and 700,000 CHF to be a member and 27,000 CHF to attend Davos. Your forecasts come true, theirs never do. Our firm did not renew for 2025 after Trump won the election. Our board follows your projections, not those of the World Economic Forum (WEF). You’re correct, you went there only for political connections, not for the forecasts. Their failure to achieve Agenda 2030 is apparent. Schwab’s board members have been placed in high positions, from the ECB and the EU, as well as with the gullible like Trudeau and Carney in Canada.
Nigel’s Reform Party is now also in first place. This is because he shares your philosophy, not Schwab’s.
You are the only real forecaster and the genuine alternative to Davos.
DH
REPLY: Thank you. In all honesty, Schwab was never right because he is an academic caught up in the Marxist theory that the government has the power to control and alter the direction of the economy and society. Nobody has ever been able to change the business cycle, let alone “flatten the curve” of a virus.
He stuffed political positions with his star pupils and bragged about infiltrating so many cabinets, especially those of the Liberal Party in Canada and in New Zealand.
The lockdown destroyed the economy because these people only look at a single issue and cannot understand that (1) we are all connected, and (2) the lockdown failed to reverse the climate change nonsense, which was the fundamental objective, nor did it stop the virus that comes back seasonally. The WEF was proud of the lockdowns.
What they just did to Schwab is consistent throughout history: the LEFT is always the most violent. They always view themselves as the victims of the RIGHT because they work for their money and get ahead. The LEFT revolutions of 1848 and the early 20th century have killed hundreds of millions. Nothing will ever change in this regard.
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