This winter is once again extremely brutal in Europe. Extremely heavy snow has fallen as far south as Greece in the range of even 3 to 5 feet in various places. This is the third year of extreme cold in Europe which has been fueling more resentment about global warming taxes. Once again, Europe has been thrown into economic chaos for much of the region is not able to cope with snow lacking the historical experience.
Meanwhile, scientists have revealed that the oceans are still getting colder at deeper levels in a slow-moving trend that was set in motion by the last Little Ice Age. The idea that the oceans have been retaining the heat so that is why the planet has not warmed up as forecast 30 years ago flies in the face of those ideas as well.
Listening to the WEC 2018 recording this weekend, Mike Campbell made an interesting sideline comment. He stated that pension funds were heavily invested in real estate . Is this just Canada or the US as well? If taxes go up will this further push the pension funds over as well as the emerging markets? If pension funds go under what happens to these investments?
Wasting time by checking my Facebook page I saw 2 advertisements that struck me. One was for investing in high end real estate apartments in Charlotte and the other similarly for investing a national hotel chain but in a specific hotel in Atlanta. Is this the canary in the coal mine ie peak for this ECM wave in real estate?
Keep up the good work
DK
ANSWER: Yes. Many went into real estate particularly to get rental income. They did the same in buying farmland and then renting it out for 5%. This was caused by the manipulation of interest rates to absurd levels. This is one of the issues I have pointed out in Washington and it has gone back to the Federal Reserves. This is one of the reasons why the Fed has been raising rates. They MUST get them back to normal levels. Insurance and pension fund along with some banks have gone into the property markets and emerging market debt to compensate for the low interest rates.
I have been warning that the European and Japanese central banks have DESTROYED their bond markets. There is NO BID and capital has rushed off into other areas. Europeans have been big participants in the Dow Jones not just for the yield and price advance, but also for the currency gains as the Euro has faltered.
The last Documentary film I did was on this very crisis of destroying the bonds markets. The central banks were buying the government debt BECAUSE nobody else would at such low levels! They are shooting another segment and then I believe it will all be released as another film in the movies.
Worldwide, we are witnessing a decline in property values. This is part of the crisis we face going into 2020. As values decline, you will see more of this attempt to entice a private investor to jump into a falling market. STAY OUT OF PROPERTY OFFERS!!!!!!!! New Jersey is now the #1 state people are fleeing from because property taxes are insane and they will do nothing but rise. If you ever thought of moving to a lower taxes state – YOU BETTER DO IT before there is NO BID to try to sell your house
QUESTION: I get up in the morning, make coffee and read your blog. Thank you for your service to humanity.
Ok, so the Democrats want to go back to the 1950’s with 70% tax rates. Does that also mean they’ll reinstate the same deductions that were available back then? For example, passive activity loss rules would go away, personal credit card interest, medical expenses, and job expenses would be deductible, companies could deduct meals and entertainment, vehicle expenses, corporate jets etc. Also, there was a tax credit of 10% of the cost of new and used equipment placed in service. It is unfair to look only at the tax rate without looking at how taxable income was calculated. And how about Social Security tax being applied to a few thousand of earned income.
M
ANSWER: No. They will never put back all the deductions. This is all about raising taxes for their claimed Socialistic Agenda but in fact, as the deficits rise and interest expenditures explode, they will be raising taxes sharply as they always do pretending to be taxing just the super-rich. They NEVERlower taxes on the middle class. They just point to the rich to raise taxes without any benefit to anyone else. Normally, the play games with the definition of the rich.
The Trump Taxcut denied deducting what you pay in taxes to a state after 10k. They blame Trump for that yet this has been on their wish list for the past 30 years. If the Democrats get hold of the White House and the Senate, you can bet your life they will not change that deduction. They silently all cheered for that – both Democrats and Republicans. The Definition of the rich has always been classified as “household” income. The burden of student loans preventing the youth from leaving home and buying their own house is wiping out the economy. It has reached a 75-year high coming in at a stunning 40%! The impact of this is the call among Democrats behind the curtain to get the IRS to add all the incomes in a household including the children to push them higher into the category of the “rich” which starts at the $250,000 level – not $10 million. The plan will be to raise the taxes on the rich and the define who are the rich. They will NEVER tell you the truth to your face. This is all part of the decline and fall of Western society.
QUESTION: What about what China did by buying stocks a few years ago to stop the hang sang from dropping
ANSWER: Do not confuse attempts to support a market from actually being able to do so. This is the same as Keynesian economics that government could prevent recessions. Larry Summers admitted the government cannot even forecast such events. Not only during the Great Depression did companies jump in to buy their shares during the crash to try to prevent the decline. Most of the companies that took that action actually failed for they bought the stock back trying to hold the price and lost needed cash reserves. They could not sell stock again nor could the borrow.
During the collapse of the Nikkei after 1989, companies held believing that the government would support the market. When they realized the government could not then the government encouraged us to bail out the Japanese corporations. We helped well over 300 public companies issuing a note to buy their portfolios at their cost with 10-year payouts and each note had to be approved by the Japanese government individually. If the governments were able to actually prevent declines, then they would. But nobody can do that for the size of the public at large far outweighs any institution, group of institutions, or banks.
People would rather believe in conspiracy theories than simply look at the reality. Attempts to manipulate markets ALWAYS fail because the majority is far greater than any minority. The trend is made by the MAJORITY. A panic sell-off like the Crash of 1987 took place BECAUSE there was no bid – not that there was a massive short position. Scare the MAJORITY and they then try to sell, you find no bid and that is how a flash crash unfolds. This is why outlawing short positions is destructive for the only person with the courage to try to catch a falling knife is the one who is taking profit – not initiating a long position.
While the BitCoin people have hated me for not agreeing with them that a private currency could displace the currencies of all nations and BitCoin would be the new “reserve currency” killing the dollar, to me they are in serious need of help. They have ZERO comprehension of governmental power and ZERO understanding of what is going on behind the curtain. The IMF has come out and stated that each nation should issue their own cryptocurrency and these fools cheers claiming I am not with it and do not get this new age of technology. Sorry, but these people are really clueless if not perhaps undercover people with a mission to get people willing to surrender their final liberty – paper money.
While cryptobugs advocate gold is dead and BitCoin will conquer the financial world, they miss the point entirely. The IMF is by no means embracing cryptocurrencies for the same reason these people have claimed it will bypass central banks. The IMF is advocating the end of paper money to kill the underground or black economy solely to aid the hunt for taxes and to PREVENT bank runs. If there is no paper money, how can you run to the bank in a panic demanding to withdraw your money? They also argue eliminating paper money will end crime.
Now, Michael Andrew, the man appointed by the Australian Federal government to lead the ‘Black Economy Taskforce’ at the end of 2016, is arguing for an interim-step. He believes tracking the currency denomination is the best solution in stopping the underground/black economy and grabbed taxes if you found a $50 or $100 bill on the street and failed to give the government their 50%.
Governments are going broke. They will not listen and instead, they are obsessed with just a solution for the next quarter. They lack any vision of the future and will NEVER tax responsibility for their own mismanagement. Their single solution is to always raise taxes rather than reform. The more they press toward this cashless society the greater the economic implosion. What comes after the elimination of cash and the budgets are never balanced with institution starting to shift to private assets rather than government bonds that pay nothing and present huge risks will be the default on social programs without the corresponding reduction in taxes. This all leads to the inevitable collapse of Western Society just as we witnessed the collapse of Communism in 1989.
Our model is famous for forecasting the collapse of Communism and even the fall of the Berlin Wall (November 9, 1989; 1989.857). The likelihood of Western Socialism surviving as some benevolent government will come to an end by 2041.457. The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests that culminated on June 4th, 1989 (1989.424). This means we should begin to see a sharp rise in civil unrest cyclically speaking beginning October 28th, 2020 going into the US Presidential elections.
The future appears very dark unless we can convince the world governments that they face a hopeless path to secure its power. In this hunt for taxes, they are destroying all liberty. They cannot reasonably pretend to be governments of the people and by the people in a wonderful land of democracy and opportunity when they need to track everything we do and have. Paying a babysitter will be illegal with cash. Society will not run to cryptocurrencies with open arms. We will be forced to return to barter systems.
COMMENT: It looks like the Plunge Protection Team had a field day with the 1,000 rally in the Dow. Back in the 70s I read a small article near the back page of the WSJ that said that the CIA was using two small obscure banks in the Midwest to trade futures. The way they do it is to buy the futures and force the floor traders to stop selling. Then they pile it on and force the shorts to cover.
CM
ANSWER: That is really impossible. I have NEVER found a market that has EVER defied our model. The market bottomed precisely when it should have. Our Cyclical Array pinpointed the day well in advance. That proves there was nothing unusual. Last Friday the 21st, I wrote on the Private Blog: “We do have another Weekly Bearish Reversal at 22739 and a closing below that could warn of a Cycle Inversion meaning down into new week bottoming perhaps on the 26th and then rally into the following week for year-end and then turn back down into January.”
If what you are saying is true, then the government would never collapse and they are 100% in control of everything. That is just not the case. You are attributing power to them that they believe they have. However, if they had such power, then taxes would never rise for they are 100% in control and nothing would happen. Larry Summers, the father of negative interest rates, admitted in a Bloomberg interview that those in power can NEVER forecast a decline because it is a complex system.
I wrote on the Private Blog on December 24th: “The likelihood of lower lows into the 26th are good. But this week remains as a Panic Cycle so we can then see a whipsaw back up into the end of the week. Primary support still lies at the 21600 and 21450 level followed by 20002.”
Then on the day of the low, 26th of December, I posted on the Private Blog at 3AM for the European Open: “Often the bulk of a decline will unfold the day BEFORE the market closes. This is typically as natural human response of the fear of the unknown after the market reopens.”
I just do not see ANYTHING in the market behavior or patterns that would indicate something abnormal. The real explanation is just that all the selling took place on Monday as people feared it would collapse further on the 26th after the market opened. That has been the pattern for more than 100 years – panic before a close of the market for fear of the unknown. Sorry, great story about the Plunge Protection Team. A similar theory prevailed in Japan that the government would NEVERallow the Nikkei to fall. It did, and that belief led to a 19-year depression in share market price, but 26-year economic depression which did not begin to shift trend until 2015.75.
There have been attempts to create a Plunge Protection Team before. The banks got together to try to save the market back in October 1929. Here is the Los Angeles Times from October 26th, 1929 talking about the Stabilizing Forces to save the market. They failed to prevent the Great Depression.
Nobody can step in front of a falling market and survive. Nevertheless, despite the continued failure of such efforts, this myth is always spun. Anyone who believes that such a Plunge Protection Team can even survive never bothers to look at history.
COMMENT: I really get annoyed by people who say well it has been warm here so what happens elsewhere is irrelevant. They are idiots and cannot see the whole and just want to blame humans for everything. I can see how our situation is hopeless when it comes to climate change.
All the best
JS
ANSWER: Very true. I got one email saying even though the death toll in Wales is double that of the previous year from extreme cold, it was warmer here in Canada so you are just wrong about everything. Such people are unable to divorce themselves from their bias. We have a serious climate change unfolding that cyclically is on time. Ever since 1895, the media has alternated reporting between global cooling and warming scares and many times they have even been overlapping. Here are accounts from the press reporting both global cooling and warming between 1955 and 1961. From 1895 until the 1930s the media peddled a coming ice age. From the late 1920s until the 1960’s they warned of global warming. From the 1950s until the 1970s they warned us again of a coming ice age. This makes modern global warming the fourth estate’s fourth attempt to promote opposing climate change fears during the last 100 years.
Then we have the diehard Global Warming crowd who refuse to ever consider that just maybe they may be wrong and are doing exactly the same thing I encountered when doing research on the Great Depression. Back then, the claimed that the DUST BOWL permanently destroyed the “Middle West” and that all the soil blew away so there would NEVER AGAIN be farming in America. ALL the government “expert advice” blamed the catastrophe on mechanized agriculture because tractors had been in use for only a couple of decades. They theorized how the tractors caused the Dust Bowl and this became very popular. The government even put out films calling it the Plow that Broke the Plains. But the old-time farmers remembered the droughts of the 1890s. There had been 10 years of rain in the Midwest and the forecasts at that time saw no change in sight.
The mechanism of plowing increased the yield dramatically and this contributed to the decline in employment in the Agricultural industry from 70% of the Civil Workforce in 1850 to 40% by 1900 and then 3% by 1980. The price of what declined dramatically from World War I into 1932. Severe drought hits the midwestern and southern plains. As the crops die, the ‘black blizzards” began which is more commonly known to history as the Dust Bowl. It lasted for 8.6 years until the rains returned in 1939.
By December 1935, there was a meeting in Pueblo, Colorado, where experts then estimate that 850,000,000 tons of topsoil had blown off the Southern Plains during the course of one year. They forecast that should the drought continue, the total area affected would increase from 4,350,000 acres to 5,350,000 acres in the spring of 1936. They warned that the damage was permanent. To try to intervene, the C.H. Wilson of the Resettlement Administration proposed buying up 2,250,000 acres and retiring it from cultivation.
In February 1936, the mass migration out of the Midwest created what were called hobos without money or a job. The Los Angeles Police Chief James E. Davis sent 125 policemen to patrol the borders of Arizona and Oregon to keep “undesirables” out of California. As a result, the American Civil Liberties Union sued the city. Even the Democrats forcible deported Mexicans during the Dust Bowl. The Mexican Repatriation was a mass deportation of Mexicans and Mexican-Americans from the United States which went into 1936. The estimates of how many were forcibly deported range from 400,000 to 2,000,000. Yet, it was a sort of ethnic cleansing for an estimated 60% of those deported were actually born in the United States.
Climate Change is a natural event because everything has a cycle even weather. It was the 8.6-year drought that created the Dust Bowl, not tractors. Here we are once again blaming soccer moms driving their kids to school for climate change once again.
As always – facts mean nothing. The majority of people lack the ability to be unbiased. They simply believe what they want to believe and will never change.
The Socialists are out to blame Trump’s Tax cuts to argue why taxes should be higher. At the beginning of 2o18, Trump imposed a spectacular tax cut making the USA much more competitive than its European counterparts. Trump argued that the tax reduction would contribute to the recovery of the economy and finance itself through additional tax revenues as what took place with the Reagan tax cuts. However, we have the Socialists playing loos with the facts, as always, claiming the cost of the tax cut was $1.5 billion a year. They now claim that Trump’s tax cuts were funded by more debt since it rose by $1.271 billion. Their argument is always playing games with the numbers. The entire tax reduction was not financed by additional debt, the problem is that the debt rose because it is always being rolled over and the interest rates have risen adding to the cost of rolling that debt. As we enter 2019, we will more likely now watch interest expenditures for the first time exceed that of military.
The Socialists never want to see taxes ever reduced and they always want to see the national debt increase without end. They refuse to look at the economics behind their Marxist philosophy and they then blame the people as they do in France calling them thugs when their tax burden simply increases without end reducing the standard of living for the middle class. I have stated many times, the very idea of Socialism violates the First Amendment freedom of religion for the tax rates are greater than the 10% advocated in the Bible and it violates the Ten Commandments which forbid coveting what others have. Perhaps one day the lawyers will wake up and actually protect the people and do what their oath was intended – file a major class action lawsuit against the government and socialism as a violation of the freedom or religion.
We have to understand that the Jetstream itself is extremely dynamic. It has been dipping very low and as I reported last winter, it even snowed in Tallahassee in northern Florida for the first time since the Blizzard of 1899. This is causing some very diverse outcomes. In Sweden that had one of the hottest summers on record. I was in Bavaria in August and likewise, it was extremely hot. The buildings generally did not have air conditioning because they never needed it.
On the other hand, in Ukraine where it is usually very hot at that time of year, it remained very cool. In North America, it all depends where you are. Some parts of Canada is warm, and others are unusually cold. The Jet Stream is becoming very exaggerated in its dips. This is why last year the crops froze in Spain creating a shortage of vegetables in Europe. Of course, we have the diehard people who claim just because where they live it is warm so it must be global warming and anyone who disagrees with that are just wrong. They refuse to even look around the world that exists beyond their front doo
We have the most sophisticated and diverse client base than probably any institution covering more than 100 countries. Our business has been constructed upon one bedrock foundation – unbiased computer analysis. These forecasts are NEVER my personal opinion. There are plenty of people who seek to argue but fail to understand it is NOT ME! Just because someone claims to be a scientist and states for or against Global Warming, really does not add up to a lot for just as when you go visit a doctor, they always tell you to get a second “opinion” because that is all you are getting.
Previously, I have reported that NASA confirmed we are going into a cooling period – not warming. They have put out a forecastof declining sunspot activity. Now NASA has come out confirming what our computer has been forecasting. They have reported that as the sun is experiencing a rapid decline in sunspots, it is also dimming in brightness or energy output. NASA’s Spaceweather station has recorded during 2017, 96 days (27%) of observing the sun have been completely absent of sunspots.
While NASA has now confirmed that the outer atmosphere is getting cooler. In fact, one of the top NASA scientists has broken camp and warned that the surface temperature of the sun has collapsed so much, he fears a new Ice Age is upon us. Meanwhile, this has been the COLDEST Thanksgiving in 150 years! Interestingly, however, is that this sudden sharp decline in the energy output of the sun coincided with the 2015.75 turning point of the Economic Confidence Model.
I have previously warned that if this trend continues during the next winter, then we have exceeded any short-term reactionary trend and the weather appears poised to continue to get colder going into the distant future. Socrates was projecting that the peak on this cycle aligned with the ECM 2015.75. This is a Longitudinal Cycle, not Transverse. That means peak to bottom varies. This short-term wave should be a 13-year decline from 2015 making it 2028 initially. After that, if we see colder winters beyond 2028, then the next low will be with the peak in the ECM 2032. There is a SERIOUS RISK that we are looking at the final low coming in during the period of 2046.
It appears we are plunging now into a deep mini ice age. There is just no way we can reverse this trend no matter how much the government regulates or increases the taxes. For the next 20 years at a minimum it’s going to get colder and colder on average. There is a very HIGH PROBABILITY that we are declining for 31 years from 2015.
What people fail to understand is that the entire weather system of our planet is extremely dynamic. Research has traced the north-south shifts of the northern-most edge of the tropics back 800 years, which was conducted by the University of Arizona-led international team. They have mapped out the fact that the Tropic Belt is also subject to cyclical movement. I have reported that in ancient times, the region we call the Sahara Desert was lush and green and there were cave drawings showing herds of animals in the region. The research has revealed that indeed the Tropic Belt has moved upward and downward over the centuries and the research has documented where it has moved for the last 800 years.
The University of Arizona wrote: “From 1568 to 1634, the tropics expanded to the north, the team found. That time period coincides with severe droughts and other disruptions of human societies, including the collapse of the Ottoman empire in Turkey, the end of the Ming Dynasty in China and near abandonment of the Jamestown Colony in Virginia…”
The Tropic Belt has been gradually moving northward since 1970. There is debate over what is even causing that. The data we hope to also run through our model to see if that also aligns with the future forecasts on climate change our model has been projecting. This too may be yet another confirming link in the outcome we must face.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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