Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Mar 19, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
Click here to listen to my interview on 3/16/23 with World Affairs Monthly (also published on Monitoring Risk).
Interview with World Affairs Monthly
Tag Archives: Corruption
Chaos & the Secret Order to Everything
Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Mar 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
Economics is the ONLY field where cycles are denied. Moreover, people do not even comprehend how COMPLEXITY emerges. Alan Turing was a brilliant mathematician who is probably the father of computers for he built the really first computer to break the German Enigma Machine. The man was Alan Turing. He invented the computer and broke the German Enigma Code. You can watch the movie The Imitation Game to get a general idea of his achievement.
But Turing did something even far more astonishing. He had a theory that within nature, what appears to be chaos was just a mask that hides a natural order. He was the first to think that there might be a mathematical order that defines nature. There is a mysterious aspect of Morphogenesis. All the cells in an embryo are identical. Then the cells begin to clump together and actually become different from each other. The mystery was how identical cells know to form different things such as skin, eyes, brain, or bone. There is no central command center.
The phenomenon of Morphogenesis is what is the essence of mystery. This process becomes self-organization. Before Turning, absolutely nobody had any idea of how this process even worked. It was also a great mystery of life itself. It was Turning who published on March 15th, 1952, the Ides of March 3.14, his mathematical explanation of Morphogenesis. Turning’s formula was revealing for it uncovered a secret order behind the mask of chaos. Despite being one of the most brilliant minds ever and all his contributions even breaking the German code, because he was a homosexual, a judge order him to prison or subject him to hormone injections to cure him. He committed suicide on June 7th, 1954 because of the abuse of the government which ignored all his contributions.
What Turning discovered in nature, was that there is a hidden order in which identical cells then change and become specific parts of the end result without any specific coding. What would appear to be simplistic formulas, suddenly emerged into a complexity that baffled the human mind. This is what I discovered in economics. A secret cycle that defines the complexity which we also cannot see with the naked eye.
This is why different cycles unfold in all the sectors such as metals, commodities, share markets, currency, bonds, etc, and when they align that is when we get the superposition events. I will explain more in my forthcoming book on the Economic Confidence Model. One bubble will be in the real estate markets, such as 1792 and 2007-2009. Other bubbles took place in commodities such as in 1919. Still, others took place in currency markets and capital concentration such as the 1989 peak in the Nikkei in Japan or the 1929 bubble in the USA.
In 2020, we warned that this cycle would be a debt crisis wave, but also a commodity wave with rising inflation and interest rates into 2024. We must understand that each bubble is different for it all depends upon the cyclical aspect of that particular sector and does that line up with others to produce a super-wave that becomes the bubble.
Right now, we have a crisis in banking because far too many banks have just listened to the mainstream media and failed to understand that interest rates would be rising – not declining. Since 2020 we have been warning that interest rates were at a 5,000-year low. A simple bounce to just 5% would be devastating. Many banks attend our conferences because they are sophisticated and do not make hedging decisions based on the latest headline on MSNBC.
I am working hard on having Socrates articulate the complexity. I hope to roll this out this year – ASAP. My personal interpretation is generally on point, but not always. What looked to be dominated by geopolitical events in April, appears to be combined with the banking crisis, and in all honestly, I could not imagine that the FDIC even considered not covering 85% of the deposits. I should not have had to even explain that doing that would mean that small businesses have systemic risk in all banks. I actually had to explain there would be a major banking crisis in April that would make the Great Depression appear like a dress rehearsal.
As such, this banking crisis does not appear to be finished. It will still move into April 10th or so. Then the ICC issued a criminal indictment for Putin when they have no such jurisdiction by their own authority. They have become yet another political tool of the Neocons determined to create World War III.
We have entered the period of COMPLEXITY where we are not looking at a single sector in a bubble. We are looking at a really dangerous contagion of COMPLEXITY and the Neocons could care less about the economics. They have control of the White House and this is their chance and they are NOT backing down.
God help humanity!
Interview: Neocons, Global Warfare, Digital Currencies, Bitcoin
Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Mar 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
Watch the video above or click here to listen to my latest interview: “Neocons, Global Warfare, Digital Currencies, Bitcoin.”
Interview: The World According to Martin Armstrong Part 3, The Rise of the Neocons
Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Mar 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
Summary:
Martin Armstrong joins us in this episode to give his perspective on what’s happening in the world—addressing topics like the war in Ukraine, gold, central bank currencies, cryptocurrency, and more. We discuss what’s in store for the war and whether there is an end in sight, noting the US’ tendency to get involved in endless wars with no strategic defense. Furthermore, Russell emphasizes that the market will eventually break to the upside, and that capital will move from the bond markets and into the private sector. Tune in to this episode for more expert insight.
Press play on the audio player above or click here for my latest interview with Kerry Lutz: “The World According to Martin Armstrong Part 3, The Rise of the Neocons.”
The International Criminal Court (ICC) Issues Warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin for Human Trafficking, Child Abduction and Other Heinous Misdeeds
Posted originally on the CTH on March 17, 2023 | Sundance
Before looking at the absurdity of the International Criminal Court (ICC) position, it is worth noting that Russia, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, India, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, the United States and China do not recognize the jurisdiction of the ICC and are not member states in the organization {LINK}.
Additionally, I doubt the countries of Kiribati and Malawi are going to launch a military offensive against Russia; so, one has to ask, exactly what is this latest production about – amid the theater of World War Reddit.
The essential accusation is that Vladimir Putin took orphans out of orphanages in the Ukraine war zone and moved the children to safety in Russia. Ergo, Putin is guilty of human trafficking and abducting children.
THE HAGUE (AP) — The International Criminal Court said Friday that it has issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin for war crimes, accusing him of personal responsibility for the abductions of children from Ukraine.
It was the first time the global court has issued a warrant against a leader of one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council.
The ICC said in a statement that Putin “is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of (children) and that of unlawful transfer of (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation.”
The move was immediately dismissed by Moscow. […] Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia doesn’t recognize the ICC and considers its decisions “legally void.” He called the court’s move “outrageous and unacceptable.” Peskov refused to comment when asked if Putin would avoid making trips to countries where he could be arrested on the ICC’s warrant.
[…]Lvova-Belova, who was also implicated in the warrants, reacted with dripping sarcasm. “It is great that the international community has appreciated the work to help the children of our country, that we do not leave them in war zones, that we take them out, we create good conditions for them, that we surround them with loving, caring people,” she said. (read more)
Chairman Xi Heading to Russia Next Week For State Visit with President Putin – NATO, Ukraine and U.S. Going Bananas
Posted originally on the CTH on March 17, 2023 | Sundance
U.S. government officials are not happy as China confirms Chairman Xi Jinping visit to Russia next week to meet with President Putin.
In the background of the Ukraine conflict, smiling Panda has been happy to see distracted western nations bleeding their resources and treasury in support of Ukraine. Meanwhile, happy Panda negotiates and brokers increased relationships between Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, India and China.
There is no downside to Chairman Xi visiting Russia and advancing a position that ‘peaceful negotiations’ should begin between Russia and Ukraine, unless a resolution to the conflict is against the geopolitical usefulness of the war – which appears to be the unfortunate current status.
“The U.S. on Friday said it would oppose any effort by China at the meeting to propose a ceasefire in Ukraine“…
Think about that. Remember, Ukraine is to Washington DC as North Korea is to Beijing.
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to visit Moscow next week, offering a major diplomatic boost to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the same day the International Criminal Court announced it wants to put the Russian leader on trial for alleged war crimes.
Xi’s visit was the latest sign of Beijing’s emboldened diplomatic ambitions, and came amid sharpening East-West tensions over the war in Ukraine, now in its 13th month. The U.S. on Friday said it would oppose any effort by China at the meeting to propose a ceasefire in Ukraine as the “ratification of Russian conquest.”
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby encouraged Xi to reach out to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to get his country’s perspective on the war and avoid any “one-sided” proposals.
China has sought to project itself as neutral in the conflict, even while it has refused to condemn Moscow’s aggression and declared last year that it had a “no-limits” friendship with Russia. Beijing has denounced Western sanctions against Moscow, and accused NATO and the United States of provoking Putin’s military action.
Throughout the conflict, China has said the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected. It remains unclear, however, whether it sympathizes with Moscow’s claims to seized Ukrainian territory.
[…] Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday that Putin and Xi would have a one-on-one meeting over an informal dinner Monday. Broader talks involving officials from both countries on a range of subjects are scheduled for Tuesday.
Putin’s foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, suggested the talks could yield new approaches to the fighting in Ukraine. “I’m sure that our leader and the Chinese leader will exchange their assessments of the situation” there, he said. “We shall see what ideas will emerge after that.” (read more)
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What Reagan Would NOT Do
Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Mar 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
America should violate international law to begin World War III, or as Senator Lindsey Graham worded it: “We should hold [Russia] accountable and say that if you ever get near another U.S. asset flying in international waters, your airplane would be shot down.” Graham suggested last year that we simply assassinate President Putin, so this was not in response to a Russian jet clipping an unmanned US drone. Graham is so invested in destroying Russia that he has been the only Republican senator to visit Ukraine since the war began.
All the Neocons point to Ronald Reagan. In this same interview, Graham asked, “What would Ronald Reagan do?” Liz Cheney recently criticized DeSantis for saying Ukraine should not be a priority by invoking the Reagan card. Her dad even ran on a platform of wanting to exemplify Reagan’s policies as his own. Reagan was against communism, but the current conflict has absolutely nothing to do with communism or a fallen empire.
Ronald Reagan was the most respected Republican president since Abraham Lincoln. The Neocons, like Graham, effectively stand for everything that Reagan rejected. When I wrote to Reagan warning in 1985 that the formation of what became the G5 would lead to a crash by 1987, he ordered the Chief Economic Adviser Mr. Sprinkle to respond to me directly.
Reagan initiated the arms race to outspend the USSR during the Cold War. This too was a proxy war against the generally democratic Western bloc and the Communist Eastern bloc. He tried to avoid direct battle with the USSR as he was said to be fearful, rightly so, of nuclear war. Senators were not advocating shooting down planes, and causalities remained minimal as far as war is concerned.
Jonathan Clarke and Stefan Halper wrote in “America Alone: The Neoconservatives and the Global Order” that Republicans have “attached a Reagan bumper sticker to their motorcade [but they] ignore much of the substance: the intense arms control commitment, the summitry, the minimal use of direct American military power.” Gene Healy published an article for the CATO Institute: “Reagan Was No Neocon.” Reagan wanted to protect American democracy, but he did not want to act as a missionary spreading democracy to foreign countries.
Margaret Thatcher famously said that Reagan won the Cold War without firing a single bullet. When reading his eulogy, Thatcher did not describe a warmonger.
"Yet his ideas, so clear, were never simplistic. He saw the many sides of truth. Yes, he warned that the Soviet Union had an insatiable drive for military power and territorial expansion, but he also sensed that it was being eaten away by systemic failures impossible to reform. Yes, he did not shrink from denouncing Moscow’s evil empire, but he realized that a man of good will might nonetheless emerge from within its dark corridors. So the president resisted Soviet expansion and pressed down on Soviet weakness at every point until the day came when communism began to collapse beneath the combined weight of those pressures and its own failures. And when a man of good will did emerge from the ruins, President Reagan stepped forward to shake his hand and to offer sincere cooperation. Nothing was more typical of Ronald Reagan than that large-hearted magnanimity, and nothing was more American. Therein lies perhaps the final explanation of his achievements. Ronald Reagan carried the American people with him in his great endeavours because there was perfect sympathy between them. He and they loved America and what it stands for: freedom and opportunity for ordinary people."
Ronald Reagan would be appalled to see how his own party tosses around his name to promote murder. Reagan would not sacrifice domestic policy, send “blank checks” to Ukraine, or push America into a global war with nations that have comparable nuclear capability. So what would Reagan do? He would prioritize his own nation and end this complete nonsense.
Kevin O’Leary Discusses How Small and Regional Banks Will Disappear With New Biden/Yellen Policy…
Posted originally on the CTH on March 16, 2023 | Sundance
Small to medium sized banks along with credit unions are the best vehicle for Main Street USA small businesses. Somehow in all the conversations about banking customers, this little factoid is seemingly, perhaps purposefully, overlooked. WATCH:
Senator Bill Cassidy Confronts Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Biden Tax Proposal, “That’s a Lie”
Posted originally on the CTH on March 16, 2023 | Sundance
During today’s Senate Finance Committee hearing, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) questioned Treasury Sec. Janet Yellen about Social Security and the immediate cuts that take place in nine years if the current plan goes bankrupt. The confrontation was professional, but also very focused. WATCH:
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Cash Not Accepted
Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Mar 16, 2023 by Martin Armstrong
There once was a time when cash was the undisputed king. Merchants preferred cash payments over credit, and there were often incentives for paying with paper. I recall receiving lower gas prices when paying with cash, for example. It is increasingly common to see “no cash accepted” signs at establishments as the world moves toward a cashless society. At the Federal level, there are no laws protecting consumers who wish to pay in cash. The Federal Reserve stated on its website:
There is no federal statute mandating that a private business, a person, or an organization must accept currency or coins as payment for goods or services. Private businesses are free to develop their own policies on whether to accept cash unless there is a state law that says otherwise.
"Section 31 U.S.C. 5103, entitled "Legal tender," states: "United States coins and currency [including Federal Reserve notes and circulating notes of Federal Reserve Banks and national banks] are legal tender for all debts, public charges, taxes, and dues." This statute means that all U.S. money as identified above is a valid and legal offer of payment for debts when tendered to a creditor."
Yet, the Federal Reserve also recognizes that as of 2021, 4.5% of US households were “unbanked.” This means that 5.9 million households are unable to pay by card. This is the lowest unbanked rate since the Fed began keeping track in 2009. The most common reason for not having an account, reported by 21.7% of unbanked households, is that they do not meet minimum balance requirements. The second most reported reason (13.2%) is that people simply do not trust banks, while the third most cited reason (8.4%) was the desire for privacy.
If merchants refuse to accept cash, these people cannot participate in consumerism. Their legal tender is simply not accepted. Unbanked households are more likely to contain persons with lower levels of education, lower incomes, disabilities, single mothers, and minorities. As the Fed reported:
“Differences in unbanked rates between Black and White households and between Hispanic and White households in 2021 were present at every income level. For example, among households with income between $30,000 and $50,000, 8.0 percent of Black households and 8.4 percent of Hispanic households were unbanked, compared with 1.7 percent of White households.”
If cash is legal tender, then it should be accepted everywhere. Numerous merchants not only refuse cash but they charge an additional fee for using credit. Tennessee, Arizona, Delaware, District of Columbia, Idaho, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Rhode, Colorado, and Connecticut have laws at the state level protecting cash payments. Some cities such as Washington D.C., Berkley, Chicago, New York City, Philadelphia, and San Francisco also have laws in place. However, I can assure you that many retailers in these areas still do not accept cash.
Washington wants to move us toward a cashless society to tax everyone, even those with the least to give, on every transaction we make.
Centinel2012 