Dec 18 2024

Brazil into 2025

Posted originally on Dec 18, 2024 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Like so many others, I cannot express my gratitude for creating Socrates. You provide forecasting for the entire world. In Brazil, Socrates has been a light in the middle of darkness. Our central bank has had to intervene four times, desperately trying to prevent the collapse of our currency, as we see nothing but soaring budget deficits. We are witnessing the wholesale spread across assets. Our government dollar bonds are declining despite being denominated in the US dollar. Our hopeless president, who the West cheered, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, proposed new income tax breaks alongside a plan to cut over $11 billion in spending last month. Lula has no idea about the economy.

Could you please comment on Brazil as we go, so does South America?

Enzo

ANSWER: It is so important to look at the entire world. We are all connected. However, looking at the array for South America it does not suggest that everyone will follow Brazil. Nevertheless, the US dollar should continue its advance into 2025. I would be concerned about the May/June time period next year. We are looking at the collapse of socialism. The election of Lula da Silva was an act of economic suicide for Brazil. Silva was elected in 2022 to be the president of Brazil. That was a stunning comeback following a very tight run-off race that was not without controversy. His victory heralded a political about-face for Latin America’s largest country. You can see the economic consequences ever since the US dollar reversed direction and was projecting going into 2025 for a major high. Bolsonaro is ahead of da Silva in the polls for the next 2026 election. It certainly appears that the US dollar will rally into 2025, impacting your 2026 election.

A year-end closing above 5.98, which the market is trading above currently, should confirm a new high for the dollar into 2025. Looking into next year, the overhead resistance will stand at 6.31, 6.79, and 7.27. Brazil is a founding member of the BRICS. The collapse of their currency files in the face of propaganda about how the BRICS will kill the dollar. They lack the economy and certainly the financial capability. As you mentioned, they had to issue debt in dollars to raise money. As the dollar rallies, those emerging markets that issued dollar-denominated debt are being pushed closer and closer to default in 2025.

Dec 17 2024

Kids for Cash – Biden Awards Corrupt Judge Clemency

Posted Dec 17, 2024 by Martin Armstrong

Former Luzerne County, Pennsylvania judge Michael Conahan made his fortune by accepting bribes to imprison America’s youth. Conahan and fellow judge Mark Ciavarella Jr. ruined families to help fill the cells of for-profit juvenile detention facilities. Over 2,500 juveniles were sold off by these judges for $2.8 million. Conahan was sentenced to 17.5 years, a mere slap on the wrist compared to his offense. But Joe Biden believes this man should be free and granted him clemency.

These corrupt PA judges sent children to prison for minor, non-violent offenses. For many of these juveniles, they had never seen a courtroom before the day they were unlucky enough to appear before Conahan of Ciavarella. Now, Conahan had already been released on home confinement after citing he was in “grave danger” of catching COVID. “These commutation recipients, who were placed on home confinement during the COVID pandemic, have successfully reintegrated into their families and communities and have shown that they deserve a second chance,” Joe Biden stated.

Why should this dishonorable judge receive clemency when he deliberately gave children the longest sentences possible in exchange for cash? Some of his victims were under 13. Those who were released are suffering permanent psychological damage, and many were unable to finish high school.

One young man committed suicide while behind bars while serving a sentence for a minor drug charge, a charge that someone like Hunter Biden would never face. His mother, Sandy Fonzo, told reporters she was “shocked” and “hurt” by the president’s disgusting actions. “Conahan‘s actions destroyed families, including mine, and my son‘s death is a tragic reminder of the consequences of his abuse of power,” Fonzo told the Citizens’ Voice, a local outlet. “This pardon feels like an injustice for all of us who still suffer. Right now I am processing and doing the best I can to cope with the pain that this has brought back.”

There are clearly two tiers of justice in this country. Biden’s actions are sparking bipartisan outrage as NO ONE believes this judge should receive a “second chance” when he denied THOUSANDS of kids the opportunity to have one. Joe Biden may very well leave office as one of the LEAST popular presidents in modern history.

Dec 16 2024

Americans Earning Under $50K Regularly Skipping Meals to Afford Shelter

Posted originally on Dec 16, 2024 by Martin Armstrong

Inflation data is skewed and does not factor in the reality that the costs of basic necessities like food and housing have not waned significantly since COVID began. Shelter costs, in particular, have become unaffordable for the majority. Redfin recently reported that 74% of Americans earning under $50,000 are seriously struggling to maintain consistent payments on their rent or mortgage.

Nealy, a quarter of Americans earning under $50,000 annually regularly skip meals and delay healthcare to cover the rent or mortgage. Nearly a quarter have admitted that they can no longer afford to eat three standard meals per day because the money must go toward shelter. Around the same percentage said they have been forced to sell off their belonging to make ends meet. Around 25% said they have asked family or friends for a loan, while 19% received a monetary gift to cover housing costs. Eight percent moved in with their parents, 10% moved in with other family members, and 3% moved in with their adult children. Six percent were sadly forced to abandon their pets, and 4% stated they delayed having children because the costs were simply too high. Eating out at restaurants (-43%) and vacations (-36%) are no longer in the budget.

Around 21% of this demographic have delayed or chose to forego medical care due to financial reasons. This could expand to Americans in many income brackets as healthcare is a luxury service. Countless people who can afford it simply travel to other countries to receive healthcare. I hear this frequently with dental procedures that are not as time sensistive in particular.

Shelter costs spiked 7.9% from January 2022 to January 2023, marking the largest annual increase since 1982. Shelters across America have reported a 23% rise in people seeking emergency assistance from 2019 to 2023. The median home in the US now costs $420,400, but it is hard to gauge an average cost when home prices vary significantly by state and city. People living in New York, California, and Hawaii are more likely to spend 50% or more on household income on shelter costs. Rental costs remain 20% higher than they were before COVID, while the cost to buy remains up by 40%.

This is precisely why they fail to include shelter costs in the inflation data. We hear the central banks tout how inflation is at or near their target but they omit key data. The talking heads in government like Yellen who claim people are better off than then before the pandemic are completely out of touch with reality.

Dec 16 2024

Institutions Can Have Their Entire Portfolio on Socrates

Posted originally on Dec 16, 2024 by Martin Armstrong

The Global Market Watch (GMW) was created for one of the top 10 banks in the world. It allowed them to look at their entire portfolio without reading a thousand reports. This allowed them to hone in on what might need their attention. As they commented, this is like having 1,000 trading assistants. We really are too busy advertising or engaging in marketing campaigns. You can die from having too much business. As is the case with offices worldwide, someone is always awake. This was designed for large institutions to save time and provide an important tool for investing.

The comments are a work in progress since the model still identifies new patterns. Socrates is proving that all the theories from the nonsense of Random Walks, etc., are just excuses for people incapable of comprehending how the world functions. The GMW records a pattern REGARDLESS of the market and assigns a number you see under the comment. That same pattern shows up in every market because the instrument is irrelevant – it is how human nature interacts with that market.

We can create a GMW for your entire portfolio to give you a fast glance at your portfolio. We are currently working on providing the same tools that I have used so you can ask question and it will respond. We are considering creating a terminal so it will access our systems and provide you with an impressive assistant.

Dec 16 2024

We can Add Any Stock Worldwide to Socrates

Posted originally on Dec 16, 2024 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Mr. Armstrong, you used to provide your reports rebranded to an institution’s name in Tokyo. Would you consider that for other countries?

ANSWER #1: Yes. We would articulate the turning points rather than include the arrays. That would make it too identifiable, tracing back to us. But certainly, we can do that and attack an institution’s name, such as a reputable bank or brokerage house. We can replace the majority of the cost of research. We have a database of virtually every stock in the world.

QUESTION #2: Can I request that a particular stock be added to Socrates?

ANSWER #2: Certainly.