Opening Your Eyes or Remain as the Fool on the Hill


Posted originally on Apr 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

65d9f5b61b1918cc45e4724d

COMMENT: I just had to say thank you. I kept a copy of your private post What Are the Markets Telling Us? from FEBRUARY 24, 2024. Your model called for a high in January, the false move to retest support in February, and a resumption of the trend into April. You have taught me so much about how markets move. Only a fool buys and holds, expecting every month to be higher.

Keep up the great reports. This is when many say we need you the most.

Jeb


That Post 2/24/24 Was:

The UK has a slightly different pattern from continental Europe. Germany shows a Panic Cycle in June. But the targets are shaping up as May and July. Blending in gold, January was high, and Feb has retested support, yet softly. Volatility should rise now going into March, and April 19/20th is the ECM turning point of the Ukraine/Russia War, followed by the main ECM target of May 7th. Here, too, we see rising volatility in gold from May into August, with a Panic Cycle in September and the peak in volatility in November probably related to the 2024 election.


bulls bears Pendulum

ANSWER: Thank you. Everything moves in a cycle. Many of the great discoveries come only from observing how markets trade. John Law traded on the exchange in Amsterdam and came up with the theory of Supply and demand.

Henry VIII Debased Groats

Sir Thomas Gresham also traded on the floor in Amsterdam, representing the English Crown. He saw how Henry VIII’s debasement of money caused people to hoard the older money, which actually shrank the money supply, forcing the state to debase even more. He came up with the idea that bad money drives good money out of circulation.

I invented capital flow analysis because, in the ’80s, I, too, observed how capital was rushing around the world, driving markets up and down. If you do not open your eyes, you will remain nothing more than the fool on the hill.

Gold False Moves

Only a fool refuses to learn about the markets. If you cannot grasp this basic fundamental principle, forget investment; you are just a fool who will lose everything. There are always false moves. That is how the market is propelled by moving in the opposite direction, creating bull and bear traps. Every rally in gold for 19 years was touted as this time will be different. When they failed, they blamed the bankers. NOBODY but NOBODY can manipulate any market, altering its trend. They can push the market around within the scope of support and resistance. But they cannot change the trend no matter what.

FT June 27 1998
1998 LTCM Crash
WP IMF Dinner

All the bankers and hedge funds were on the same trade with Russia. I was invited down to the dinner they put on to buy influence in the IMF at the National Gallery.  I told them the market would crash and refused to join. When it crashed, they blamed me rather than admit they were all wrong. If they were so powerful, why do they always blow themselves up with Russia, mortgage-backed securities, you name it?

NO BID

No market can be manipulated against its inherent trend. Anyone who claims gold was suppressed because it was manipulated simply was an excuse because their analysis was wrong. That is total BS to claim any market can be manipulated, converting a bull to a bear market.  Everything is arbitraged on a global scale.

The majority is ALWAYS wrong, and that is what creates the crash. They are all long, try to get out, and there is no bid. Look at the Slinky moving down the steps. The opposite side gains the majority of power and then pulls the other side down, and so on. This is how the markets move. It is always a battle between bulls and bears, which is why the markets can never go in one direction. The same is true about everything, including climate change. The climate has always changed the same as markets have always risen and fallen, only to rise again. Marxism did not understand this fundamental, and it, like some gold bugs, tried to make the economy rise and never fall back into recession.

Foucault Pendulum

The French physicist Jean Foucault discovered what is known as the Foucault Pendulum. He proved that the earth rotated on its axis. The pendulum was constantly moving back and forth like markets by its own inertia. In the course of 24 hours, the floor moved in a circle. Since you are standing next to this pendulum at the Houston Museum of Natural Science, the illusion is that it moves in a circle when you and the floor are fixed on Earth.

NOT EVERYTHING IS WHAT IT SEEMS – ONLY A FOOL REFUSES TO SEE

“The FED’s Calling Us Stupid”: Brat On How The FED’s Putting Down Half The Country With Policies


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Apr 11, 2024 at 02:00 pm EST

Biden’s Secret Flights Responsible for NYC’s Migrant Crisis


Posted originally on Apr 12, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

New York fell years ago. Their courts are the most corrupt in the nation, businesses have fled with their tax dollars, taxes continue to rise, housing is unaffordable, and crime is rampant. New York needs new leadership. Eric Adams continues to blame Republicans like Texas Governor Greg Abbott for the migrant crisis that has toppled budgets and surged the city’s population by over 150,000.

But one of his own is responsible for sending migrants directly to the Big Apple.

Governor Abbott of Texas has sent around 37,000 migrants to NYC on buses. His reasoning has been that New York claimed it was a sanctuary city and had leadership that strongly supported open border policies. None of the blue states or cities cared much about open borders until the migrants appeared in their towns.

Eric.Adams_.SanctuaryCity

Yet, Joe Biden is responsible for the open border policies and the entire crisis. As for New York City, the Center for Immigration Studies unveiled that the Biden Administration has secretly flown in countless migrants to New York from foreign airports. Estimates now state that Biden is directly responsible for flying 33,000 undocumented migrants to NYC – 22% of the city’s migrant population.

Biden has signed off on flights from foreign nations that brought over 386,000 illegal immigrants to America since January 2023. Congress has not authorized these treasonous, unconstitutional actions. The“CHNV Program” or the “Advanced Travel Authorization Program” allows ANYONE in a foreign nation to apply to enter America on one of Biden’s tax-payer-funded flights. A separate program, as reported by the NY Post, has smuggled 420,000 migrants from 100 different nations to the US.

Republican governors have been issuing warnings that go ignored. “They don’t give us any information on it. They are not coordinating with state government at all. If they throw six people on a commercial flight coming from a foreign country, there’s no acknowledgment at all to state or local authorities. That’s just a fact,” Florida’s Ron DeSantis said in a press conference earlier this month. Abbott has tried to implement border controls to no avail. The physical US-Mexico border does not matter much when the POTUS is sending these migrants to America on commercial flights.

The current administration has waged a war on the American people. The number of illegals now outnumbers the number of people in the US military. This is an extremely dangerous situation that will continue to worsen unless Biden and his regime are forced to abide by US law.

Canada Accuses India of Election Interference


Posted originally on Apr 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Trudeau 7

The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) issued a report accusing India and Pakistan of interfering in Canada’s federal elections in 2019 and 2021. India has called the claims “baseless,” but the CSIS said it will be on the hunt for meddling during the upcoming election.

It is not Government of India’s policy to interfere in democratic processes of other countries. In fact, quite on the reverse, it is Canada which has been interfering in our internal affairs. We have been raising this issue regularly with them. We continue to call on Canada to take effective measures to address our core concerns,” stated India’s External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal.

Canada’s next election is not until October 2025, but polls show that Canadians are eager for a change in leadership. A poll from January conducted by Nanos Research found that 46% of Canadians would like to cast their vote in 2024. The Canada Elections Act of 2007 changed the timeline for general elections, which are to be held the third Monday of October every four years. Yet, an election could be held earlier, according to Election Canada, “as long as it is no later than five years after the previous election.”

People are simply losing confidence in their government leaders. Canadians are not happy with their current conditions and want Trudeau out. As is common, his administration now must blame foreign interference for his loss in popularity.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi

The CSIS was granted extended powers by the Liberal government in 2015 under Bill C-51, the Anti-Terrorism Act. The CSIS is now able to actively interfere with potential terrorist activities, such as censoring websites, blocking the freedom of movement, or de-banking individuals as they did to the truckers during the Trucker Convoy.

“We have known for many, many years that many different countries take an interest in engaging in Canadian institutions and sometimes influencing, sometimes interfering, in the work of Canadian institutions,” Trudeau said. “I can assure people that we will continue to do everything necessary to prevent interference from whatever country it comes from.”

Threat-reduction matters could include parking a cop car outside of a potential terrorists home; government intimidation. They believe Sikh Canadians are being forced to vote in alignment with Indian policies, therefore, the CSIS will be watching them closely as the next election approaches.

There is no concrete evidence that an outside source interfered in Canada’s elections but that is not preventing the government from attacking foreign nations and alerting the public that they will be taking preventative measures to ensure the public votes accordingly.

Paper Bonds – Another Strike Against Govt Debt


Posted originally on Apr 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

1973 E Series US 25 savings Bond

The US Treasury stopped issuing paper savings bonds in January 2012, switching to online platforms. There is a slight exception where a paper Series I may be purchased with proceeds from a federal income tax refund, but they are extremely rare. What they failed to explain is that US banks are NOT required to cash in these bonds.

A friend’s daughter recently ran into an issue on her 30th birthday when she attempted to cash in a number of bonds that had finally matured. Her bank simply told her, “No. We will not cash them.” She called customer service, and the bank explained that they had no legal obligation to cash government bonds.

USBonds

She was told She was told to mail in the paper bonds to with a completed FS Form 1522 to the Treasury directly along with copies of her personal government-issued identifications. Obviously, this does not seem secure as mail is lost all the time regardless of tracking numbers.

There are currently no options to cash paper savings bonds online. The government has made it deliberately difficult to cash in these bonds. She attempted a loophole where you previously were able to redeem bonds at larger institutions if they were worth under $1,000, but still, she her request was declined.

According to Treasury Direct, “Banks vary in how much they will cash at one time – or if they cash savings bonds at all.” We have seen numerous banks fail and begin to consolidate. Regional banks are struggling with liquidity and larger institutions simply do not want to hand out cash if they’re not required to do so.

Naturally my friend wished those 30-year bonds were invested in equities or anything other than bonds. She would have made far more than the government bonds could ever provide, and now it will be a difficult task to snail mail personal information to the Treasury and await a response. Yet another strike against purchasing government debt.

Decline in the Birthrate & Biden’s Agenda


Posted originally on Apr 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

2009 Ginsberg Eugenics

Bill Gater’s dream of killing off half the population is coming true. The Gates Agenda began with his father and Planned Parenthood being put in minority areas to reduce the population based on race. Even Roe v Wade was cleverly used to tell women it was their BODY, THEIR RIGHT, to have an abortion. Justice Ginsberg, who was a woman’s rights advocate, said that this Supreme Court decision had NOTHING to do with women’s rights – it was all about reducing the population.

Decline in Birthrate

Now we have a real crisis unfolding, and Gates is perhaps popping the champagne in celebration.

  • Birthrates are falling globally.
  • In many countries, COVID-19 has suppressed population growth, resulting in a sharp decline in births and simultaneously reducing expectancy.
  • Even before the pandemic, urbanization drove population decline as it historically always does with prosperity.
2021_China_allows_three_children_in_major_policy_shift

China realized we were heading into a crisis. Their one-child policy would lead to a 50% reduction in population, and the majority wanted just a boy to keep the family name. In 2021, they reversed that policy, now directing families to have three children as the West declines in population with the rise of this Climate Change agenda that has transformed into reducing the population.

Population Growth 1950 2022

While the Climate Change people are in bed with the Neocons and promote World War III behind the headlines to reduce the world population by at least 2 billion, historically, population declines with economic prosperity. In an agrarian society, large families were necessary to work the farm, and the children took care of their parents before the Great Depression and socialism, where governments created Ponzi schemes to replace the family unit. Most children today do not save to care for their parents; that’s the government’s job. It has reversed where parents care for their children even into their 40s.

Gates Population Control

Of course, Gates has been indoctrinated by his father and is so concerned about reducing the population one must wonder why he supported vaccines to improve health when, in fact, all the evidence surfaces is exactly the opposite.

WSJ 2009 Shrink Population Gates

Gates has used his money to influence climate change and, at the same time, promote vaccines along with reducing the world population. His positions are hypocritical to say the least. One must wonder if any vaccine is safe anymore.

When the Vice President said the real agenda, they quickly said she misspoke and meant to say “POLLUTION” rather than “POPULATION.” It seems strange that she supposedly read that one word wrong. Or was this a slip of the tongue because what they are talking about behind the cameras is a reduction in the population?

US Population Growth 1950 2024

Looking at the annual population growth in the USA, we can see that Biden’s border opening has tremendously impacted the growth rate. Moreover, they expect this to shift the politics in the USA to the leftist movement. But additionally, the LEFT wants war, and they need bodies to send to fight. From day one, Biden opened the border and allowed the flood of predominately young men to the promised land. They did not know they were being offered citizenship in return for military service.

Sparta Warriors

Sparta in ancient Greece rewarded fathers based on the number of children. Sparta wanted soldiers, so the more children, the better. But Sparta undermined its own economy in the process. Production of children was rewarded in Sparta, and the fathers of three or four sons were exempted from military service and other economic burdens. Sparta divided estates (partibility) among all the heirs.

Aristotle was sharply critical of this practice and wrote:

“It is obvious that, if there were many children, the land being distributed as it is, many of them must necessarily fall into poverty.”

Sparta Coinage Spears

Biden’s opening of the border may increase his military so he can wage war against China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran simultaneously. Still, it will drive the US economy into poverty and reduce per capita production and income. This is what undermined Sparta. They were a socialist state that never issued coinage because personal wealth was prohibited. They used an iron spit or rode to discourage the accumulation of wealth and its use. You were to be the property of the state – no individuality.

When you look closely for a common denominator of the decline and fall of a civilization, what surfaces is a striking pattern of birth control and declining birth rates. The history of birth control pre-Christianity was very different, for abortion had none of the stigma in most cultures. There are even surviving documents from ancient Egypt concerning birth control and abortion. The Ebers Papyrus from 1550 BC describes the use of honey, acacia leaves, and lint to be placed in the vagina to block sperm. The Kahun Papyrus from 1850BC described birth control methods using contraceptive devices and the use of acacia gum, which has confirmed spermatocide qualities and today is still used in contraceptive jellies.

Cyrenen Birth Control AR Didrachm 294 275BC

It would seem that the main product of Cyrene and the city of Barce at this time was the silphium plant. This was the main source of prosperity were agriculture and animal husbandry. Horses could graze in the less fertile areas, where the silphium plant grew wild. Silphium juice’s value for pregnancy prevention brought great wealth to this region. The historian Pliny tells us that it was a veritable cure-all; it is said to have had hundreds of medicinal and cosmetic uses. It was used to treat everything from chills to fevers. Hippocrates tells us that it could be used as a poultice or to soothe the stomach. Cooks also used the plant in their recipes.

However, this plant was used as a type of birth control. Indeed, medical evidence from classical antiquity informs us that it was the drug of choice for contraception. A History of Contraception and Abortion in the West. The Greek physician, Soranus of Ephesus, suggested taking a dose of silphium “the size of a chick-pea” once a month, both to prevent conception and “destroy any already existing.” The ancient abortion pills.

Cyrenen Birth Control AR Hemidrachm 500 480BC

Silphium’s seedpod resembles the modern Valentine’s heart. It has been argued that the popularity of this plant and its connection to love and sex just may have been the true origin of the image of the heart we still use today. The ancient city of Cyrene, which grew rich from the silphium trade, even sold heart-shaped fruit on its money from the earliest Archaic times of the 6th century BC.

Nero Bust

This plant was indigenous to Cyrene and resisted all attempts at mass cultivation. That kept the price high, but the demand was so great that this contributed to its extinction by the 1st Century A.D. As legends go, the Roman Emperor Nero (54-68AD) was presented with the last surviving stalk, Silphium.

Cyrene became a prosperous country, and it was all for birth control.

Brian Costello: “We Have A Government Right Now That Works For The Billionaire Class”


Posted originally on Rumble By Bannons War Room on: Apr 9, 2024 at 08:00 pm EST

Violent Crime in Germany Hits 15-Year High


Posted Apr 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 
German Refugees

Germany was once a safe nation. Violent crime has reached a 15-year high, with homicides, knife assaults, and rapes drastically increasing. Crime rose by 5.5% last year alone, with 6.6 million incidences reported. Other nations like the UK, US, Canada, France, Sweden, Finland, and everywhere else that permitted, if not encouraged, open border policies have also seen an uptick in crime but no one wants to point out the obvious.

Migrants were responsible for around 40% of violent crimes in Germany last year, but the non-German national population only composes 15% of the population. Angela Merkel sold off Germany in 2015 when she urged all refugees to come to Europe to seek a better life. The migrants never stopped showing up. Germany handled over 350,000 asylum applications in 2023, and that only accounts for those who went through the judicial process.

The left refuses to hold migrants responsible for crimes and will not acknowledge that different cultures simply do not integrate well into Western societies. Lamya Kaddor, a Green Party MP, said that migrants are simply over-represented in crime statistics. “The crime rate is higher among socio-economically disadvantaged groups, which very often include foreign nationals,” she stated. Politicians like Kaddor do not care about the safety of their constituents and will never back away from open border policies.

Merkel Forcing Refugees

The migrant crisis is deliberate and apparent in all Build Back Better nations. These people are living off of the government, are unvetted, and have no allegiance to their new homebase. Southern European nations are in an even worse state as boatloads of new migrants wash upon their shores daily. Merkel humiliated Greece during the bail-out process, and now the European Union as a whole has its foot on the necks of all nations under its control. No one voted to allow these migrants into their hometowns. It is hard to say that Europeans live in a democracy as they are under the control of the European Union, which is following orders from the World Economic Forum these globalists do not merely want a one-European government but a one-world government where the few rule the masses.

US Failing to Add 1 Million Manufacturing Jobs


Posted originally on Apr 10, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

manufacturing man 1

I have already criticized the March jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics. The mainstream media is cheering the 303,000 position boost as proof that the American economy is on the right path. I noted in an earlier blog post that the number of part-time workers rose by 691,000 while the number of full-time workers decreased by 6,000. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics admitted that the number of Americans holding multiple jobs increased by 217,000 or 5.2%, as Americans cannot afford the current cost of living even with wages rising 4.1% YoY.

One additional aspect—not a single manufacturing job was added to the US economy in March. The BLS claims that manufacturing jobs held steady at 12,956,000 from February, although 10,000 manufacturing positions were cut in January.

InflationReductionAct.meme_

The Inflation Reduction Act promised to fund the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act that was intended to expand American manufacturing. As Yellen and others have openly stated, the Inflation Reduction Act, America’s most expensive spending package, was intended to promote the climate change agenda.

Clean energy manufacturing is not profitable and, therefore, not expanding. “According to third-party estimates, the Inflation Reduction Act’s climate and clean energy tax incentives have the potential to drive investment that will support more than 1 million jobs in energy and related manufacturing sectors over the coming decade,” the US Department of Treasury stated in October 2023.

“To receive increased credit and deduction amounts under the Inflation Reduction Act, taxpayers must:

  • Pay workers the local prevailing wage, defined in accordance with Department of Labor standards, for work on facility construction, as well as for alterations and repairs in a five-to-twelve-year period, depending on the credit, after a facility is placed in service.
  • Hire a sufficient proportion of workers from registered apprenticeship programs, including hiring these qualified apprentices for at least 10% of the labor hours spent on facility construction, alteration, or repair work (rising to 12.5% for facilities where construction begins in 2023 and 15% in 2024 and later years)

The prevailing wage and apprenticeship provisions apply to:

  • the Alternative Fuel Refueling Property Credit (30C)
  • the Production Tax Credit (45, 45Y)
  • the Credit for Carbon Oxide Sequestration (45Q)
  • the Credit for Production of Clean Hydrogen (45V)
  • the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z)
  • the Investment Tax Credit (48, 48E)
  • the Advanced Energy Project Credit (48C)
  • the Energy Efficient Commercial Buildings Deduction (179D)

In addition, the prevailing wage provision will apply to:

  • the New Energy Efficient Home Credit (45L)
  • the Zero-Emission Nuclear Power Production Credit (45U)”

The private sector does not wish to invest in alternative or renewable energy projects. The tax credits are not enough of an incentive. The US Department of the Treasury mistakenly believed that the act would provide “taxpayers with a strong incentive to meet high labor standards as they build projects” and “expand well-paying union jobs and support proven pathways into the industry that allow workers to earn while they learn.”

Manufacturing is in fact not expanding. The regulations in place have made it difficult for existing factories to expand or bring on more workers.

Confidence in Government & Justice is Collapsing


Posted originally on Apr 9, 2024 by Martin Armstrong

While COVID has set in motion the collapse in confidence of the government and the media, the prosecutions against Trump and anyone associated with him are demonstrating that the Department of Justice is now weaponized. We are staring into the eyes of a collapse of justice for all. No government can stand when the rule of law collapses. These people are merely confirming our computer’s forecast into 2032.