Steve Mnuchin is Not Pretending, States U.S. Economy is Already in Recession


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 26, 2022 | Sundance

A lot of people didn’t like Steven Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary, I did.  Secretary Mnuchin was an inside player, a billionaire himself, who worked for the outside team.  He already had a full bank account and carried ‘f**k-off’ money.   That, combined with Wilbur Ross having the same ability, was exactly what we needed to execute the America-First MAGAnomic resurgence.

The U.S. middle-class saw and felt the benefits.  Economic security is national security, at a nationwide and even individual level.  Mnuchin, Ross and Lighthizer constructed that economic outcome guided by the larger strategy of President Donald J Trump.

RIYADH, Oct 26 (Reuters) – Former U.S. treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Wednesday he believed the United States was in a recession and said this would continue.

Speaking at Riyadh’s flagship investment conference FII, he said: “I think we’ll probably see a peak of 4.5% 10-year rates.”

“I think you are going to see inflation in the U.S. begin to come under control, it will probably be a two-year period,” he added.

He said the U.S. and China must learn to co-exist. He added that the Middle East’s economic issues need to be dealt with regionally. (link)

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith Fighting Back Against WEF


Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada Re-Posted Oct 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

This is big news. Alberta’s new Premier Danielle Smith is the first government leader to apologize for vaccine mandates. Taking it a step further, she directly criticizes the World Economic Forum (WEF) and Schwab; she has “no interest in being involved with them.” During her first day in office, Smith immediately apologized for the vaccine mandates. She is offering to rehire any government worker who lost their job due to their vaccine status.

“We are not QR codes,” Smith once said, adding that she wants to “purge” Canada’s QR database. She called out Alberta Health Services (AHS) for creating problems by colluding with the WEF. “They signed some kind of partnership with the World Economic Forum right in the middle of the pandemic; we’ve gotta [sic] address that. Why in the world do we have anything to do with the World Economic Forum? That’s got to end,” Smith said. Great question, Danielle.

She plans to look into amnesty for outstanding COVID-related fines. “The system, my friends, is broken,” she said. “Most of those managing AHS today are holdovers from the NDP years. They have had their chance to fix this bloated system and they have largely failed on almost all accounts. Failure is no longer an option.”

Remember when Schwab boasted about infiltrating world governments with various Young Global Leaders, such as Trudeau? She publicly said that it is “distasteful” and “offensive” when billionaires brag about how much control they have over governments. Yes, this is a direct shot at Schwab. She is the first government leader to openly question why we have allowed the WEF to infiltrate governments and control policies. We need more leaders like Danielle Smith who are willing to acknowledge the growing power that Schwab and his minions have in shaping the global society. Better yet, we should question why they were handed power in the first place.

Arizona Governor Candidate Kari Lake Responds to Hypothetical Threat of NFL Superbowl Boycott for Securing the Border


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 25, 2022 | Sundance |

During an Arizona media gubernatorial Q&A with Republican candidate Kari Lake, the pundit asked Mrs. Lake about hypothetical backlash from the NFL toward her campaign promise to secure the border.

The continually impressive Kari Lake handled the question forthrightly. WATCH:

The full question and answer session is below.

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The Pennsylvania Senate Debate Between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 25, 2022 | Sundance

The media owe an apology to the NBC journalist they attacked for saying John Fetterman struggles to understand issues, questions and communication during conversation.  The awkward and often cringeworthy responses by Fetterman during the Pennsylvania Senate debate with Mehmet Oz, proved there are some serious mental issues with the former stroke victim, John Fetterman.

In this representative exchange over the topic of fracking, you get a feel for just how incapable Fetterman is to articulate a position.  The entire debate was filled with moments like this.  To his credit Oz handled the debate with seriousness and did not highlight his opponents’ issues.  He didn’t need to. The impairment was visible to everyone. WATCH:

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I’m sorry, but just no.  I’m not even comfortable criticizing the substance of the debate.  What kind of family would let someone they care about put themselves through this and not intervene.  John Fetterman should be in therapeutic rehab, not under the stress of a senate campaign.  It’s beyond awkward; it’s sad and horrible to watch.

The full debate is below:

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Bidenomics – Home Values Continue Dropping Quickly, Especially on West Coast – Meanwhile Rents Continue Increasing


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 25, 2022 | Sundance 

As inflation bites the working-class hard, U.S. household savings rates continue dropping fast.  When combined with drops in home values the loss in home equity compounds the issue.  American families are getting poorer much more quickly under Joe Biden’s economic policies.

According to the Wall Street Journal home values dropped in August at their highest monthly rate of decrease since 2011 {link}.  In part this is driven by higher mortgage rates which are pricing home buyers out of the market.  However, the regional impact is worse on the west coast than east or southeast.

[…] The housing market has slowed abruptly this year due to a rapid increase in mortgage rates, which has raised borrowing costs for home buyers and pushed many prospective buyers out of the market. Existing-home sales fell for eight straight months through September. (link)

As noted in The Daily Mail review of a similar analysis: “It’s Northern California that leads the way, with San Jose experiencing a drop of 10.8 percent since September, followed by San Francisco at 8.5 percent, then it’s Seattle at 8.2 percent, Denver at 5.8 percent, San Diego 5.2 percent, Portland 5.1 percent, Las Vegas 4.8 percent and Phoenix at 4.4 percent.” (link)

What we are seeing is a confluence of events, generally brought about by the outcomes of larger Biden administration policy.  Massive increases in energy costs are the result of energy policy; those increases are fueling inflation from the supply side on food, fuel, electricity, home heating etc.  Simultaneously, Fed monetary policy is driving consumer demand down.  The recession debate continues amid the economic think-tanks while Main Street outcomes show we have been in a recessionary period all year.

The majority of consumers have stopped purchasing nonessential goods and services. As a result, the only thing holding the economy together is employment.  Sooner or later, as the natural lags in the economy bite down, the lack of consumer spending (noted in increased inventories) is going to result in lay-offs and unemployment.  It’s almost a guarantee at this point once the boxcar impact of the prior supply chain shortages straightens out.

The third wave of food price increases is now here, and we are all likely starting to see those price increases in retail food stores.  Depending on how much higher energy prices go this winter (gasoline, natural gas, home heating oil etc.) the middle class will again be making tough checkbook decisions on spending.

On a MACRO level (nationwide averages) I would not be surprised to see home prices drop to where they were in the beginning of the second quarter of 2021.  Home sales have dropped quickly, and home inventories are now climbing.  Home buyers are now in the position to negotiate for much lower prices as fewer home buyers are in the market.

If you did not purchase a home in the past year, you likely have stable equity.  Depending on region, those who did purchase a home this year will have to wait quite a while before the price level returns.  Meanwhile rents continue increasing as middle-class workers are stuck between diminishing real wages (Biden inflation) and higher home borrowing costs (Biden monetary policy).

The Genius Behind PayPal’s Bad Idea


Awaken With JP originally Published on Rumble on October 11, 2022 

Here’s how PayPal’s decision to fine users $2,500 for misinformation went down.

Can Society Ever Learn for its Mistakes?


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers Re-Posted Oct 25, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION #1: Hi Martin
Do you ever wish Socrates was wrong? Sometimes I do!
All the best
Maria

QUESTION #2: Marty; I have been following you since the Nineties. You have never been wrong, or should I say, Socrates. I also know how you have saved many companies since I was there at the board meeting ——–. I also know you have tried your best to influence Washington, and have resigned yourself to giving up. Do you think that Socrates could ever be wrong?

PM

ANSWER: I have simply taken the view that it is better to see a punch coming than to be sucker-punched. The world will not end. It is merely indeed a Great Reset which I think Schwab has taken from our model. He is trying to make it happen and push the outcome in his direction. Schwab is just an old academic. They theorize things rather than try to discover how things function. Smith tried to figure out how it worked. Marx tried to change how it worked. That remains the difference between Klaus and me.

Yes, I have tried to get through to those in power in vain. They turned to Klaus because of his way they got more power. They would have to surrender power if they chose my way. I can wish the outcome would be different – of course. Perhaps when I am gone, someone will champion what I have discovered like Smith during the post-2032 era. As individuals, we learn from our personal experiences. Our problem is that society repeats history because it is incapable of ever learning from past mistakes as an individual. Leaders are replaced, and never do they reflect upon the past. They all have some idea they assume it’s always new.

We need to create a system that learns from the past. Perhaps something like Socrates, where you ask it a question, and it returns an unbiased answer. Perhaps then society, just for once, could actually advance instead of moving two steps forward and three back.

So yes, I wish Socrates would be wrong. But on the other hand, I also realize that is impossible until society can learn from its past mistakes like a child and retain that knowledge to advance society – just once!