MAGA Brilliant – Multidimensional Economic Policy – Trade Shift to Durables…


Go through the archives and you’ll note a strategy unfolding that few, including us, could fully conceptualize when it first appeared.  Way back when candidate Trump first began to put his economic plans into platform outlines the subtle signature was there, but few were paying attention.

In order to reverse three decades of middle-class economic erosion, there were indicators that Trump’s strategy was a radical change in approach.  In essence the strategy was to split the economic policy into two areas and sequence the policy: highly-consumable goods (first) and durable goods (second).

Both product sectors have historically been viewed and approached by economic policy makers using a single financial strategy.  That singular approach gave rise to Wall Street benefiting and Main Street suffering.  Investment-class gained; middle-class suffered.

Trump outlined an approach –albeit vaguely– that was multidimensional.

His policy would first target multinational corporations, using the U.S. Treasury (Mnuchin) to weaken their grip and influence; simultaneously, he would use energy policy to drive down domestic prices in highly-consumable products (fuel, food, energy sector).  These sectors are not measured in fed inflation indexes; however, if lowered, these facets of consumer spending can also increase the amount of disposable income available for workers.

In essence, expand the economy by lowering the aggregate cost of living for the middle-class who live paycheck-to-paycheck.  Use fiscal policy (and trade policy), to entice domestic investment and create jobs; and ultimately put upward pressure on wages.

That’s where we are now.

The second aspect of Trump economic policy is geared toward ‘durable goods’.  That’s where the trade imbalance plays a larger role in the strategy.

As the economy expands, Americans can now afford rises in the prices of durable goods.  However, as with all manufacturing systems -geared toward retaining market share inside a consumer economy (ie. the U.S. market)- the foreign creators will first seek to retain competitive pricing structure by making efficiencies within their own business models.

When foreign manufacturers entering a phase of cost-cutting analysis (note Team Trump just left Asia) you immediately hit them with stronger forecasted trade rules on their products.  The manufacturers financial analysis then has to contain the possibility of new rules.  That’s where Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer come in:

(Story Link)

On Oct. 5, the ITC [International Trade Commission] voted unanimously in favor of Whirlpool, which brought a complaint forward accusing Samsung and LG Electronics, its South Korean competitors, of flooding U.S. markets with cheap washing machines and pricing out domestic manufacturers. While the ITC didn’t say material harm was coming from South Korea in particular, Whirlpool alleged the country’s manufacturers shifted production into other countries (Thailand and Vietnam) in order to avoid U.S. anti-dumping tariffs imposed in previous years.

The ITC’s recommendations will be sent to President Donald Trump, who will have two months to make a final decision.

This second phase is where the two economic engines: Wall Street and Main Street; begin to come into parity again.   The FED does measure the cost of durable goods in their inflation index.  Rises in durable goods are recorded in inflation indexes and fiscal policy (interest rates) is influenced accordingly.

Trump’s phase-one befuddled the FED who have been perplexed over inflation being virtually non existent.  Most of the reason for this disconnect has been the downward price pressure on (non-measured) highly-consumable goods; and static prices on (measured) durable goods.  The FED can see the economy expanding, but they cannot, or at least couldn’t until now, reconcile the lack of inflation.

Wages are growing, albeit modestly at first – but now gaining speed, as a result of economic expansion and increased employment.  This wage growth, in combination with keeping downward pressure on high-consumable prices, allows Trump to begin a series of aggressive trade policies that will slowly raise durable good prices.

The trade policy, tightly executed by Trump, Mnuchin, Ross and Lighthizer, will put increased pressure on manufacturers to make products in the U.S.  In turn this puts further demand on U.S. workers; which, in turn drives up the wages to afford the prices of durable goods as they increase.

Simultaneously, it must be remembered that every dollar removed from imports actually increases the GDP.  The value of all imported goods is deducted from the combined value of all goods and services we produce.   If we drop $1 billion in imports on Washing Machines, and simultaneously manufacture $1 billion on Washing Machines in the U.S., the U.S. GDP gains $2 billion in value.  The U.S. economy actually expands by more than $2 billion because the attached manufacturing wages are also inside the U.S.

This multi-prong approach is one of the reasons why it just doesn’t seem to be part of the strategy to keep the U.S. inside NAFTA as it currently is constructed.  Perhaps, just perhaps, the NAFTA exercise is more optical than actual.  Perhaps, it’s more about the outside world seeing the U.S. trade position as executed, than actually negotiating….

Media Ignores Key Alabama Witness Reports That Refute Roy Moore Accuser…


On top of the original story told by Gloria Allred falling apart; and on top of Allred refusing to produce the yearbook from the accuser that she highlighted as evidence; the Alabama campaign of Roy Moore has been contacted by several key witnesses who refute the story described by Gloria Allred’s client and media accuser Beverly Nelson.

Interestingly, the witnesses who have direct and specific knowledge of the events Mrs. Nelson described in 1977 already told the media her story didn’t make sense and provided specific examples that refute the claims of Mrs. Nelson.  However, after waiting to see their accounts told by the media, and seeing nothing, the witnesses realized the media was hiding them.

GADSDEN, Ala. – On Monday evening, the Moore Campaign unveiled statements from key witnesses that completely bust the story of Beverly Nelson and Gloria Allred and further reveal an unconscionable bias on the part of state and national press to hide the truth from Alabama voters who will undoubtedly see through the “fake news” and elect Judge Moore for the man that they have always known him to be.

[…]  These witnesses have shared their testimony with multiple news outlets. The outlets have failed to report.

Rhonda Ledbetter, a retired public school teacher who is currently the senior choir director at a Baptist church and teaches children at a local, church-sponsored day care center, was a waitress at Olde Hickory House for almost three years from 1977-1979. She was a college student at Jacksonville State University at the time and worked varying shifts at different times of day, multiple days a week during the time of her employment.

She said in a statement:

“When I heard Beverly Nelson’s story, there were several details that were different from what I remember. I was nervous at coming forward because of all the attention this story has gotten, but as a moral and ethical person I had to speak up about what I know to be true.

I was a waitress at Olde Hickory for almost three years from 1977-1979, and I never saw Roy Moore come in to the restaurant. Not one time. And I would have noticed because most of our customers weren’t wearing suits, especially not at night. Many customers worked at Goodyear next door and would stop in on their way to and from work, and I don’t remember anyone from the courthouse coming in at all. That just wasn’t our crowd.

“A few things stuck out to me. First, Nelson said she was 15 years old when she started working there but you had to be 16. I don’t remember her from my time there, and I don’t remember any 15-year-olds working there at all.

“Second, Nelson said the restaurant closed at 10 p.m. but I know the earliest it closed was 11, though I believe it was midnight. I’m certain of that because Goodyear employees came in to eat after their shift ended at 10:00 p.m., so there’s no way we would have closed at that time.

“Third, the area wasn’t dark and isolated as she described. Rather, the building was right off the busy four-lane highway and people and cars were always around. The restaurant had a wrap-around porch, like the ones at Cracker Barrel restaurants, and there were lights all around the sides of the building. So it wasn’t dark and anyone in the parking lot was visible from the road.

“Fourth, the dumpsters were to the side of the building, not around back and there sure wasn’t room to park in between the building and the dumpsters. People from the kitchen would take trash out of the side door and throw it right into the dumpsters. We were always told to park on the side of the building, because there just wasn’t much room behind it. I don’t remember there being an exit from the back of the parking lot, there would barely have been enough room to turn a car around.

“I came forward because from what I’ve seen, the media is only interested in reporting one side of this story. In fact, Dixon Hayes from WRBC in Birmingham asked for former employees to contact him but never responded when I told him I never saw Roy Moore come into Olde Hickory House during the three years I worked for. Two other news outlets in the state asked to interview me and I agreed, but neither one has aired my interview and I have to wonder why they don’t think the people of Alabama deserve to hear anything that counteracts the accusations against Judge Moore.

It’s not for me to say whether or not something happened, I can only tell the truth about factual details that I know for sure. I think all Alabamians deserve to have all of the facts so they can decide for themselves what the truth is. Despite what the national media and people in DC might say, Alabama voters are intelligent and have common sense. We don’t need anyone to tell us how to vote or to explain to us what really happened. We will make that decision and I just wanted to do my part in sharing the truth on some of these important facts. I, like all Alabama voters, want any and all information that can shed light on the truth.”

Johnny Belyeu, Sr. is a former police officer with over two decades of experience with the Etowah County Sheriff’s Department and the Gadsden Police Department. He said in a statement:

“I was an officer with the Etowah County Sheriff’s Department in the 1970s which means I worked in the courthouse and knew who Roy Moore was since he was the Deputy District Attorney at the time. I was a regular customer at Olde Hickory House, and I never once saw Judge Moore come in there. If he had I would have immediately recognized him. I also never met Beverly Nelson during any of the many times I frequented the restaurant, and I can’t say that she even worked there.”

Renee Schivera of Huntsville, Alabama stated:

“I was a waitress at the Olde Hickory House during the summer of 1977, before my senior year of high school. When I heard Beverly Nelson’s story the first thing that stuck out to me was that I don’t remember Roy Moore ever coming into the restaurant. I also don’t remember her working there.

The other thing that struck me as odd is that from my best recollection, the dumpsters were to the side of the building. I just know they were visible from the road, and not back behind the building. But the main thing is that if someone came in almost every night we knew who they were, and I never saw Roy Moore there. As a Christian woman, I wouldn’t lie for anyone and I am only sharing what I know because it’s the truth.”

(SOURCE)

Signed in December?  Two inks? Two different hand writings?  A signature lifted from divorce documents?…  Eye witnesses refuting the accusations….

It is clear from a simple review of the inscription that two inks were used, and two different types of handwriting appear present.

Providing further evidence toward Moore’s defense, he notes the “DA” following the signature are specifically the same as the divorce documents he signed for Mrs. Nelson in 1999 (see below):

The “D.A.” does not stand for District Attorney, it stands for “Delbra Adams”, Judge Moore’s former assistant who started working for him in 1987, ten years after the “DA” which appears in Mrs. Nelson’s yearbook.

The evidence showing Beverly Nelson and Gloria Allred manufactured the yearbook as support for a thinly veiled political hit and scurrilous claim seems overwhelming and presumably that’s why she is refusing to allow independent inspection.

In addition to being a dubious lawyer with a career containing several fraudulent claims against republican political opposition (ex. Herman Cain and Donald Trump), Gloria Allred is also a DNC delegate political activist.

Embattled Angela Merkel Indicates New Election Preferred Over Minority Governing…


Stunningly even Chancellor Merkel herself admits her immigration intransigence is the leading reason for her inability to form a coalition government.  Yet she is so committed to the ideology of ‘open borders‘ she will tender no compromise.

In an effort to leverage political blackmail against her opposition Merkel prefers the route of another election rather than trying to govern from the minority position.

BERLIN (Reuters) – Chancellor Angela Merkel said she would prefer a new election to ruling with a minority after talks on forming a three-way coalition failed overnight, but Germany’s president told parties they owed it to voters to try to form a government.

The major obstacle to a three-way deal was immigration, according to Merkel, who was forced into negotiations after bleeding support in the Sept. 24 election to the far right in a backlash at her 2015 decision to let in over 1 million migrants.

The failure of exploratory coalition talks involving her conservative bloc, the liberal pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and environmentalist Greens raises the prospect of a new election and casts doubt about her future after 12 years in power. (read more)

It really is remarkable the level of entrenched ideology amid those who carry a far-left world view.  The position of Chancellor Merkel is reflective of visible authoritarianism within a democratic assembly of government.  There is apparently no limit to what Merkel is willing to do in order to retain her individual political outlook without concession.

Not surprisingly, the media fail to call out this representative reality; behavior which is, ironically, exactly what media falsely accuse President Trump of doing.

Merkel Vows to Run Again


After the failure to form a new government, Chancellor Angela Merkel has made it clear she has no intention of withdrawing from the race. New elections in Germany are looking ever more likely. Merkel appeared on TV on ZDF and said that she had not thought of resigning. Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier urged the parties to make a new attempt to form a government. The SPD, however, reiterated it will not agree to a grand coalition.

The Approaching Famine


The most serious forecast that we see from our computer models has been a rise in agricultural prices caused by Global Cooling – not Global Warming. Crops cannot grow without the sun and water. Historically, when the weather turns cold, the crops fail.

There is no question that food prices will rise during periods of war when crops cannot be planted and armies require food on a priority allotment.

However, Mother Nature sticks her finger into the pot to stir things up. The famine cycle is also an 8.6-year frequency, but the volatility aspect comes in units of 12 rather than 6.

   

Our database on wheat from 1259 forward (excluding our data on the Roman Empire grain prices), reveals that there is a serious risk of famine from 2020 onward. It appears that we may very well enter a 12-year rally into the year 2032. Our Bifurcation Models are reflecting also a gap in time between 2020 and 2031 suggesting a trend appears to last for that period of time.

The downside of taxation, and particularly inheritance taxes, has driven farmers to sell their land to conglomerates just to pay the inheritance taxes. This has resulted in genetically altering crops to increase yield. While genetically altered crops do not really appear to present a major health concern as many seem to argue, the real danger is the fact that during the past 100 years, 94% of the world’s edible seed varieties have vanished.

The downside of socialism which has attacked the rich, we have sacrificed the historical model in our food supply for corporate decision making that bribes politicians handing them their needed money to remain in office with each election. The consequence of this corruption has been the concentration of our food supply into an ever-shrinking basket of diversity. Today, 75% of the world’s food comes from only 12 plants and 5 animal species (see source). This lack of biodiversity has seriously increased this risk of widespread crop disease, and throw in the climate change turning colder, corporate decisions are not the way to protect society. Corporate boards are typically dominated by lawyers and accountants. They are not scientists nor do they even make proper decisions for investment or currency hedging. Corporations will never be able to cope with a sudden change and then make decisions that will impact the world. Major companies, such as Monsanto, could find themselves in control of the fate of human existence with the decisions being made by lawyers and accountants fixated on their bottom-line.

The period ahead, 2020-2032, appears to offer something much more different. While politicians keep pushing Global Warming because they can tax emissions, the risk of a monumental human disaster lies in the opposite direction.

The entire theory of Ice Ages emerged after the discovery in 1772 of wooly rhinos and mammoths were frozen in ice with plants still in their stomachs. Suddenly, science woke up and came to the shocking realization that climate can change drastically with no notice.

We have the technology today to drow food inside without even soil. This is something one should consider to put in your basement as 2020 approaches on the horizon.

 

Germany Moving Toward Political Crisis


Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday her efforts to form a three-way coalition government had failed. Merkel only received 32.5% of the vote, which is probably the lowest vote of any major world leader. The FDP pulled out of negotiations thrusting Germany into a political crisis and ever closer to a possible new election.

Meanwhile, German hoard of cash is escalating and the cities debt burdens are exploding in Germany. The entire game4 was to hide the debt crisis in Germany until after the elections. With the failure to form a government, new elections are appearing likely extending this Year from Political Hell.

This is becoming the political crisis that just will not go away. Politics around the world remain in turmoil and as our computer had forecast, this would contribute to the collapse in public confidence. The fate of the Euro hangs in the balance.

Conspiracy Theory of Marines Invading CIA


So far, there is no confirmation of Marines landing at Langley and storming the CIA to prevent some sort of coup. That conspiracy seems to be way over the top. MEU is the Presidents 911 force. Marines are the “President’s Own.” A MEU would be accurate if used by Trump. However, I have not seen any credible reports whatsoever. Clients even in the area report all is quiet. Yes, if this was true, there would be a media blackout. Nonetheless, if a MEU unit did land even on a Sunday, they would have made a lot of noise. That is what they do to create panic in the opposing force.

I do not believe there is any coup in the CIA. If they did try something like that, it would be a stealth assassination and a patsy would have been selected to take the blame. In the case of Kennedy, they used Oswald with a Russian connection. This time, Russia is supposed to be friendly with Trump and against Hillary. So who would be the patsy? Guess that leaves some Mexican. China and Russia would be out and Mexico is not a target of the CIA to invade.

The story of a CIA coup just has no credibility. So far, I have found no confirmation from anyone.

I do not know why people make up this sort of stuff. What is the purpose? They have created a firestorm among the conspiracy theory sites. Why? Do they just have a vivid imagination? Are they deranged? They heard one helicopter and turn that into an invasion of the CIA, which makes no sense? Then they claim it must be true and there is a news blackout. Astonishing!

Report of Marines Invading CIA Headquarters


There are reports now circulating that a special forces group of 2200 marines have landed and invaded the CIA Headquarters. They supposedly have landed in the classic tilt-rotary helicopters. I have been working on this to actually confirm the veracity of this claim but not a single photo has even surfaced. The spin is they are there to prevent a CIA coup against Trump. That seems to be a bit far-fetched. If it is even true, it may be more to secure evidence for the prosecution of the Clintons.

What is very interesting is to see how the Democrats are starting to run from the Clintons. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) has come out and said that Bill Clinton should have resigned the presidency after having a relationship with White House intern Monica Lewinsky. With all the attacks to stop candidates using sexual harassment, many are starting to realize that Bill Clinton should have resigned and many are now running away from Hillary.

The truth of these stories about troops landing at the CIA has not been confirmed.  I will rely on my direct sources to confirm or deny these reports. I do not believe it is likely that this incident was to prevent a coup even if true.

Nudges – Egypt Opens Gaza Border For First Time Since Palestinian Authority Unity Agreement…


It was massively unreported in 2014 when Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi took control of the Gaza Sinai border and began removing the Hamas Terror tunnels.  As we watched the local media reporting, it was almost unbelievable how western media were ignoring the events. (example)

A full one-third of all homes on the Gaza border with Egypt contained Hamas tunnels used to smuggle weapons.  One of the discovered tunnels was 1.5 miles long (link).  In order to deal with the scale of the issue, al-Sisi ordered the removal of houses to facilitate an almost mile-wide buffer zone.   During the effort massive tunnels were discovered that the terrorist network Hamas was using to smuggle weapons.

It was al-Sisi’s efforts on that border that eventually forced the terms of a 2014 ceasefire between Hamas/Palestinian Authority and Israel.  By forcing Hamas and the Palestinian Authority to speak with one voice President al-Sisi changed the paradigm of willful blindness supporting terrorism.

Since 2014/2015 the border area has been secured by Egypt and no weapons have been able to flow into Gaza.  The inability of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas to fuel further terror created the space for the Palestinian Authority to extend it’s influence.

Eventually, absent their ability to fuel terrorist activity, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood diminished in influence; later granting the PA with unified governing authority.  The “big squeeze” paid off.

Almost three years later, the efforts of President Sisi to raise moderate voices to the top of the political dynamic, are yielding positive results:

Egypt opened its largely sealed border with Gaza on Saturday for the first time since a reconciliation agreement saw the Palestinian Authority take control of the crossing from Hamas.

A Palestinian official at the Rafah crossing said it had opened at 0700 GMT and was expected to stay open for three days.

“Egypt will open the crossing for humanitarian cases registered with the interior ministry,” the official said, adding that civilian and security personnel on the Palestinian side were all employees of the reconciliation government headed by Rami Hamdallah.

Up to 20,000 people from Gaza have applied to enter Egypt. during the brief reopening.

Egypt’s border with the Gaza Strip had been totally sealed since August, and was largely closed for years before that.

Under the terms of a Palestinian reconciliation agreement reached last month, Gaza’s Islamist rulers Hamas are supposed to cede civil power to the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority by December 1.

As a first step, they handed over control of its border crossings on November 1.

The Egypt-brokered deal is expected to lead to more regular opening of the Rafah crossing.  (read more)

This is another significant step toward a possible Arab/Israel peace deal.

“The impossible is just where we begin”..

~President Donald J Trump

The Fibber is Caught – Gloria Allred Refuses To Release Yearbook for Independent Authentication…


Notorious political/legal activist, and evidence manufacturer, Gloria Allred, represents a woman named Beverly Young-Nelson who claims Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore assaulted her 40 years ago.

Judge Roy Moore stated he’s never personally met Mrs. Nelson but he was assigned -and presided over- her civil divorce case about 18 years ago.

To prove Moore has met Mrs. Nelson, Gloria Allred produced Nelson’s high school yearbook claiming to contain the signature of Roy Moore.  However, a review of the signature shows considerable evidence that it is fraudulent.  Mr. Moore challenged Allred to present the yearbook for independent authentication.  Allred is refusing.

Even Keith Olberman’s former girlfriend, Katy Tur, see’s through the B.S.:

.

Attorney/activist Allred is demanding a Senate hearing against Roy Moore, which is absurd because the U.S. Senate has no jurisdiction over Moore as a private citizen running for office.  Allred, an activist and Democrat delegate, is simply attempting to manufacture a political fiasco to benefit her ideological and partisan endeavors.

The signature appears to be entirely fraudulent and manufactured to create a connection between Mrs. Nelson and Judge Moore.

It is clear from a simple review of the inscription that two inks were used, and two different types of handwriting appear present.

Providing further evidence toward Moore’s defense, he notes the “DA” following the signature are specifically the same as the divorce documents he signed for Mrs. Nelson in 1999 (see below):

The “D.A.” does not stand for District Attorney, it stands for “Delbra Adams”, Judge Moore’s former assistant who started working for him in 1987, ten years after the “DA” which appears in Mrs. Nelson’s yearbook.

The evidence showing Gloria Allred manufactured the yearbook seems overwhelming and presumably that’s why she is refusing to allow independent inspection.