QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read the quote that Kenneth Rogoff made about the predictions of the attendees at Davos. He told Bloomberg: “A joke, which I have been telling since the last meeting in Davos, culminates in the fact that the predictions made in Davos are always wrong… No matter how unlikely, the most likely event is the one that is the opposite of the Davos consensus.”

I was talking to a friend who is rather high ranked in a European bank and he said when they really want a forecast they call you. Why do you not speak at Davos? Everyone knows you. So why are you not taking a more prominent role?

Thanks for what you do share with us on the outside.

DY

ANSWER: The Davos meeting is way too public to be important. Its just a convention for food, drink, and parties. It is not serious. However, the media thinks it is like the Bilderberg meetings. I know people who attend both. They no more can decide the fate of the world than they can weather for their flights home. The majority MUST always be wrong. That is how all economics and markets move. Look at the Dow. This is historically the most bearish rally in all of its history. The major have been addicted to predicting every new high is its last. People keep trying to short it and they get stopped out. The shorts keep feeding the rally – not fresh longs. That is why the majority of people are NOT in this market.

The majority must ALWAYS BE WRONG and that goes for both Davos and Bilderberg meetings. For years, being perhaps the largest institutional adviser covering the world, my clients NEVER wanted to see our forecasts on the front page of the WSJ when they were paying for that info. The people who spout out their forecasts to everyone who will listen are trolling for business. If you have the business, you do not need to troll.

There is never any point in appearing publicly at Davos or the Bilderberg meetings to hand out advise for free when they will not listen anyhow until there is a crisis. So you cannot stop or alter the trend for no politician will change course until compelled to do so. Hence, it would be just a waste of time. The such time I would consider speaking at either is when the crisis comes. I have always regarded myself as a crisis manager because nobody will listen to prevent a crisis. They always hate to let go of power.

The latest report on tax comparisons within the USA has been released. A report from Attom Data shows just how nuts things are becoming with regard to taxes. Property taxes have become really insane in the North. The average annual property tax bill in Alabama in 2016 was $776 compared to the the highest average is New Jersey where it stands at $8,477.

Now filter in the State Income Taxes and what emerges is human nature. For all the people who complain about multinational companies moving offshore and then deny that it is tax related and try to characterize that as simply labor is cheaper, need to look more closely. The multinational companies I restructured we looked at the whole picture. Wages were a small part and only one component. What was the amount of social taxation on top of the wages, property taxes in a region, and then the corporate tax. Ger – it looks like the individual is making the same analysis.

The net migration of people within the United States mirrors the same thing taking place corporately on a global scale. They are leaving the highest taxed states and moving to the lower taxes states. Taxes are more than just what you pay, they push up the cost of living because everyone is paying a higher tax rate. I took a friend out with his family down from NJ and the bought ice cream cones. The bill was about half that of what they pay at the Jersey shore. I said see: high taxes ripple through everything within the economy raising the price of everything you buy. The net bottom line – taxes rob much more of your disposable income than anyone actually attributes to government directly