AOC’s four year in the making Documentary of fighting for Climate Change was a complete flop. It debuted in movie theaters around the country and took in $10,000 averaging $80 per movie theater. Of course, the leftist media hail the film, and it was the worst debut of any film in history.Just maybe people are becoming WOKE – walking up to the real propaganda.
Friends, in the late summer and fall of 2021 CTH warned of massive waves of price increases that would push inflation to record highs. We watched as each wave arrived almost on schedule throughout 2022, and as a direct result of Joe Biden energy and economic policy, prices necessarily skyrocketed.
In essence in 2021 we were warning about the expenditure side of the ledger that all working-class and fixed income families would experience. We advised to take every proactive measure possible to avoid future price increases.
Now, unfortunately, we begin moving those same warnings to the other side of the ledger; because as a natural consequence of consumer checkbook pain, the financial pressure always transfers to the income and employment side of the economic dynamic.
Keep in mind, retail sales are calculated in dollars spent by consumers. November 2022 retail sales as reported by the commerce department today [DATA pdf], reflect a 0.6% decrease in spending vs October. November data includes Thanksgiving, Black Friday and the traditional early holiday shopping. 0.6% less dollars were spent, despite prices being double digits higher than the prior year.
When the prices you are charging for goods and/or services are 10, 20, even as high as 60 percent more than prior year, yet your sales are running flat to negative – that means consumer purchases of those goods/services are substantially lower.
If you were selling 100 widgets for $1 each in 2021, you gross $100. If your widgets now sell for $1.25 and you gross $94 in 2022 sales, you have sold 75 widgets.
In 2021 you sold 100 widgets, in 2022 you sold 75 widgets, a difference of 25 widgets.
Everything attached to the raw material, creation, manufacturing, distribution and sale of those 25 missing widgets is no longer part of the economic activity associated with your widget business. You are now telling your suppliers you don’t need as many widgets, because they are not selling. You have lost 25% of your business in this scenario.
Everything associated with the drop in consumer spending now begins to downsize. Downsizing means less labor needed. This process triggers the economic impact shifting from the consumer sales side of the ledger to the income side of the ledger for employers, employees and workers.
If this consumer spending trend continues, and there is absolutely no reason to think it will reverse, we are entering a phase of serious financial instability for the American worker, at a scale that will dwarf the 2006/’07 and ’08 recession.
I am not a doomsayer pundit on economic matters. I am a proactive planner on economic forecasts. With consumer credit costing more, with fed interest rates climbing, with import orders cancelled, with shipping costs dropping, with consumer spending contracting, with fewer units moving, with inventories climbing, all of the data only points in one direction.
Serious consumer defaults are looming.
Government policy has been hammering the demand side of the economy, proclaiming -falsely- that excessive consumer demand was the cause of inflation. This game of economic pretending is about to get very serious.
Consumer spending, as measured in actual units created and purchased in the economy, has been contracting since the third quarter of 2021 (started June, July, August ’21). Simultaneously, consumer spending as measured in actual dollars spent to purchase food, fuel and energy, has been skyrocketing. This is a supply side inflationary cycle with no soft landing.
(Wall Street Journal) – U.S. retail spending and manufacturing weakened in November, signs of a slowing economy as the Federal Reserve continues its battle against high inflation.
November retail sales fell 0.6% from the prior month for the biggest decline this year, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Budget-conscious shoppers pulled back sharply on holiday-related purchases, home projects and autos. Manufacturing output declined 0.6%, the first drop since June, the Fed said in a separate report.
The Fed on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate 0.5 percentage point to a 15-year high and signaled plans to continue lifting rates through the spring. Fed officials have increased rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s to cool the economy and bring down inflation, which is running near a 40-year high.
“Most households are acting strategically, planning for a road ahead that may be more difficult to traverse, with higher interest rates, the housing slump, and ongoing inflation—and the very real possibility of a recession,” said Craig Johnson, president of the retail consulting firm Customer Growth Partners. (read more)
Businesses are going to start cutting expenses in order to survive.
The number one expense for almost all businesses is the labor cost.
Non-essential and high wage labor is going to get removed first.
Europe is trying to impose a cap on Russian oil at $60 a barrel. Russian authorities rejected a price cap and threatened to stop supplying the nations that endorsed it.
Australia, Britain, Canada, Japan, the United States and the 27-nation European Union agreed to cap what they would pay for Russian oil at $60-per-barrel. The limit is set to take effect along with an EU embargo on Russian oil shipped by sea.
In all honesty, this is the most braindead decision up their with trying to peg currencies. These people constantly reject any understanding of a business cycle and follow in the footsteps of Karl Marx believing that they even have the power to regulate prices of anything. Bretton Woods collapsed because of this same stupid reasoning of fixing the the dollar to gold at $35 per ounce. They capped the price of gold to dollars but never limited the amount of dollars they created. A 3-year old with a pocket calculator could have figured out that system would collapse.
So here we are with world leaders once again engaging in absolute stupidity that will come back to to rue the day they ever came up with this idea. If the price of oil rises to $100, they will prevent their own economies from acquiring energy. That would push the price of oil up even higher if they can only then buy non-Russian oil. Crude closed 2021 at $75.21. In their mind, they are trying still to destroy the Russian economy. This trick will only backfire.
Then this high-heel dancing head of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, actually revealed the Ukrainian hatred of Russians and why Russia came to the aid of the Donbas because they would massacre every Russian they get their hands on as they did in Odessa as the West was silent for Russians are not entitled to human rights. Andriy Yermak, the head of Zelensky’s office, wrote on Telegram, staking out a position also favored by Poland which has also lost its mind, which will further create World War III since that is what has already been announced against Russia.
“It would be necessary to lower it to $30 in order to destroy the enemy’s economy faster.”
Granted, Russia’s crude has already been selling for around $60 a barrel, which is a deep discount from the international benchmark Brent. Whatever these people can do to create chaos in the world markets and bring the world to the brink of a major international war, they are doing it brilliantly.
BTW, our model called the low in 2020, had a Directional Change for 2022, and the next key turning point is the strongest on the Array in 2023. So thank you, braindead politicians. I am sure they will blame Putin and argue he is using energy as a weapon when, by their own statements, that is what they are doing to bring down Russia.
These world leaders are trying to cap the price of oil below market value and then this evil leader of Ukraine, Zelensky, wants the cap to be $30. I warned that Zelensky will be the man, or whatever pronoun he/she prefers, that will create World War III just as the Serbs began World War I. A low in 2023 will most likely see a slingshot up into the years ahead.
For many years the carbon allowances for individuals were esoteric goals as presented by those who assemble at various global COP meetings, Davos and the World Economic Forum. However, with rapid advances in the energy control process, a result of the pandemic and Build Back Better exit, the control officers are now quantifying the specifics for the individual citizen. [pdf Here]
In short, we are now getting down to the brass tacks. Your resource allocation is part of the “consumption intervention” consideration, where the amount of carbon emission your consumption drives is what determines the goal for your future allocation.
[From the Abstract] – There is a growing consensus, based on compelling evidence, that the world is facing a climate crisis and rapid action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is a necessity. Historically, decision-makers and academics have discussed a range of options that can reduce our carbon footprint over the long-term. However, recent evidence demonstrates that choosing between one option and another is no longer compatible with rapid and significant emission reductions.
Increasingly, all options are required, and this involves multiple actors exploring how they can respond to the current climate crisis; including national government, cities, business and civil society. (read more)
As you can see above, the goal is to remove meat and dairy products completely.
In the next chart, you can see your allocation for “net clothing and textiles“:
In the Transporation sector, the ambitious goal is to remove all private vehicles, and the target lifetime of vehicles is 50 years.
For airline travel, citizens will be permitted one flight less than 1,500km (930 miles) every three years.
[Abstract] – “The wide range of action required to achieve a 1.5°C scenario leaves little room for delay or failure over the coming decade; other broad, supporting policies can provide a safety net by bringing about complimentary emission reductions. Examples of such policies are a wide deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS), particularly in industries that emit direct emissions, and carbon pricing mechanisms that can underpin action across entire economies and markets. However, even deeper paradigmatic shifts may be relevant, such as adopting more useful measures of societal development than just economic growth. In practice, no one city or nation will follow the exact same emissions reduction pathway, but this report provides direction on the type, scale and timescale of policies that will need to be implemented (read more).
As mentioned in the beginning, these are the allocations we can expect to see in the future.
The enforcement mechanisms will likely vary depending on government power amid the various nations within the collective western society. However, based on the successful results from the COVID passport beta tests, gateways and permissions, some form of digital currency will likely be part of the compliance process for the carbon allocation as outlined.
West Virginia Treasurer Riley Moore lead the way earlier this year in removing Wall Street financial firms from holding state funds due to ‘Environmental, Social and Governance’ or ‘ESG’ climate change ideology driving investment decisions.
West Virginia had been the tip of the spear since early 2021 {link} removing Blackrock in January of 2022, and even removed banking contracts from multiple investment firms during the battle and asked other states to join in the effort {link}.
Today, Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis announced the DeSantis administration would be following the lead from West Virginia.
[FLORIDA] – […] State Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis announced Thursday that Florida will immediately freeze about $1.43 billion in long-term securities and about $600 million in short-term overnight investments managed by BlackRock because of the firm’s use of “Environmental, Social, and Governance” standards — known as ESG.
Patronis in a prepared statement said he doesn’t “trust BlackRock’s ability to deliver” and “BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is on a campaign to change the world.”
“Whether stakeholder capitalism, or ESG standards, are being pushed by BlackRock for ideological reasons, or to develop social credit ratings, the effect is to avoid dealing with the messiness of democracy,” Patronis said.
Republican leaders in Florida and across the country have targeted ESG ratings, which can involve considering a wide range of issues in investments, such as companies’ climate-change vulnerabilities; carbon emissions; racial inequality; product safety; supply-chain labor standards; privacy and data security; and executive compensation.
Patronis said the state Department of Financial Services oversees about $60 billion and that the money with BlackRock will be moved “elsewhere.” (read more)
As part of the ongoing 2024 positioning effort, the ConInc influencers in/around Florida Governor Ron DeSantis attempted to claim Florida had led the way on the initiative. However, the reality of DeSantis as a bandwagoneer is brutally obvious to anyone who followed the previous effort and the backlash against West Virginia.
It’s good to see Florida join the effort.
This is one of those unbelievable stories of how Climate Change is being taken to such an extreme, we will unleash a serious wave of deaths from both starvation and coming freezing temperatures without fuel. The Dutch government actually is planning to buy out and close as many as 3,000 farms in the country, which set off a major protest with growers stood against their insane leaders’ attempt to now cut the country’s nitrogen emissions by 50% according to the EU deadline of 2030. This is all in the face of a total lack of ANY scientific evidence that any of this has ever changed the climate which has historically always changed.
Nobody will address how all the so-called scientists swore we were headed into an ice age during the 1970s. Then Al Gore singled handedly turned it around and said no – it’s global warming. Then to cope with bouts of cold weather, they called it Climate Change so if it was hot or cold they would NEVER be wrong.
These Dutch politicians have now said that they plan to allocate some $25 billion to buy out farmers stripping them of their farms and livelihood. They want to now purchase between 2,000 and 3,000 Dutch farms stripping them of their property rights and the very freedom that is the distinction between a free society and an authoritarian dream of relentless and endless power.
Where the Great Depression was made really “great” because there was also an environmental crisis known as the Dust Bowl, this time politicians want to create the same crisis all over again. Agriculture accounted for 40% of the Civil Workforce at the time in the USA. This is what drove unemployment to 25%. This time, we have politicians deliberately seeking to create a major food crisis all in the name of Climate Change.
It took the Dow Jones Industrials 26 years to ever retest the 1929 high. The Great Depression upended the civil workforce. It took World War II to create employment and to reduce the world population to enable everything to restart from square one. Ironically, it took the combustion engine to replace the labor in agriculture just to prevent massive starvation. Now that is what they want to destroy in addition to crops.
The Dutch plan to halve its nitrogen emissions by 2030 in accordance with European Union conservation rules, looks to be far more drastic. To meet that target, the government estimates that 11,200 farms will have to close, and 17,600 others will have to reduce their livestock numbers significantly.
What we must understand is that just back in the 1980s, the Netherlands was deeply concerned that they would be unable to feed its 17 million people. They were on a mission to produce twice as much food using half as many resources in a country that is just a bit bigger than the state of Maryland.
Netherlands’ policies to expand food production were accomplished and they became the world’s second-largest exporter of agricultural products by value behind the United States. Therefore, this sudden attack on farming is more than just a U-Turn. With the Netherlands as a major food producer is among the largest exporters of agricultural and food technology, this threatens food shortages spreading as a contagion.
The Netherlands produces 4 million cows, 13 million pigs, and 104 million chickens annually and is Europe’s biggest meat exporter. The EU is out to upend the economy of the Netherlands all for this fictional Climate Change theory. The Netherlands also provides vegetables to much of Western Europe. They have nearly 24,000 acres — almost twice the size of Manhattan — of crops grown in greenhouses that require less fertilizer and water. Dutch farms use only a half-gallon of water to grow about a pound of tomatoes, while the global average is more than 28 gallons.
What is taking place in the Netherlands is a very dark omen for humanity. The most efficient nation on earth for producing food is to be destroyed all for CO2. These people will not be satisfied until the death rate rises and civil unrest explodes as people turn hungry. As they say – even an honest man will become a thief when starving.
“Crowds? I see nothing. I’m surprised,” retail worker Jeremy Pritchett told FOX 2. “Normally, it’s wrapped all the way around the building. Today: no one.”
That’s the typical ground report from areas all over the country. No one, literally almost no one, is doing any holiday shopping and the traditional Black Friday rush to get deals and discounts just didn’t happen. Financial media are scratching their puzzlers, perplexed with furrowed brows.
Interestingly, almost every financial media outlet is using the same Retail Federation talking point about anticipating an 8% increase in holiday sales this year. Apparently, pretenses must be maintained. Meanwhile, news crews and camera crews are having a desperate time finding any holiday shopping to use as background footage for the claims that sales are strong.
“Look, over there. There’s a person buying something. Oh, wait, no, that’s just an employee dusting the empty cash register.” At a certain point, one would have to believe reality would run head-first into the mass delusional pretending. Maybe this holiday season will be it, maybe not.
Reuters – […] About 166 million people were planning to shop from Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday through this coming “Cyber Monday,” according to the National Retail Federation, almost 8 million more than last year. But with sporadic rain in some parts of the country, stores were less busy than usual on Black Friday.
“Usually at this time of the year you struggle to find parking. This year, I haven’t had an issue getting a parking spot,” said Marshal Cohen, chief industry adviser of the NPD Group Inc.
“It’s a lot of social shopping, everybody is only looking to get what they need. There is no sense of urgency,” Cohen added, based on his store checks in New York, New Jersey, Maryland and Virginia.
At the American Dream mall in East Rutherford, New Jersey, there were no lines outside stores. A Toys ‘R’ Us employee was handing out flyers with a list of the Black Friday “door buster” promotions. (read more)
It’s almost Kafkaesque to see how the media are continuing to maintain economic pretenses, yet the reality of a completely collapsed consumer economy is physically staring them in the face.
(Bloomberg) – Activity Light at One San Francisco Mall (4:40 p.m.) – At the Stonestown mall in San Francisco, shoppers were few and far between. The Target and Zara stores were mostly empty, and there was no line for the mall’s Santa Claus. Uniqlo and Apple were the busiest locations, but they still weren’t crowded.
[…] Crowds were thin in the late morning at the Stamford Town Center mall. Kay Jeweler, empty. Safavieh, empty. Only a couple of people waited at the checkout line at Forever 21 and just a few were in line for a purchase at Barnes & Noble.
[…] At a Target store on Chicago’s North Side, the parking lot was barely half full at about 9 a.m. local time. Shoppers were greeted with $3 ornaments and discounted Christmas trees when entering, and the store seemed calm and relatively quiet.
[…] The Macy’s in Stamford, Connecticut, was neat and orderly — maybe a little too neat and orderly on a day associated with shopping chaos. The furniture section was nearly deserted, though there were more shoppers looking at shoes. (read more)
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